/ Which of the Tory 10?

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earlsdonwhu 11 Jun 2019

Straw poll...... Irrespective of your own political affiliations, which of the candidates would you prefer? You  may loathe them all, and Tories in general, but you have to pick one ....... no reason needed.

Me ... Rory Stewart

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David Riley 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Andrea Leadsom.

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The New NickB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

It’s a bit like asking which toilet bowl I’d like to drink from. I guess Stewart. It’s got so bad Hunt seems one of the more sensible options.

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The New NickB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to David Riley:

> Andrea Leadsom.

I quite like the idea of obliterating the Tory Party as well.

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Pursued by a bear 11 Jun 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Quite.  I was thinking of 'which severe gastro-intestinal complaint would you like to suffer from in the middle of a long-haul flight?' as an analogy.  Striking that we both went for something unpleasantly lavatorial.

T.

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felt 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Pursued by a bear:

>severe gastro-intestinal complaint

Is Stewart really much worse than a prolonged, possibly fruity, burp?

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Harry Jarvis 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Stewart, largely because he appear considerably less delusional than the others. On the other hand, he's obviously sufficiently delusional to believe he's in with a chance, so perhaps my first argument doesn't really stand. 

I despair ...

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plyometrics 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Rory Stewart. 

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DerwentDiluted 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

I can't really decide, it's like a Smor-godawfuls-bord of poo pies. So, my brain inverts the question. Look at the precedent set by Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May. And ask yourself..

Who would you like to see, in a few years,  shuffling out of office, haggard, humiliated, despised by the nation and an abject failure, possibly even weeping wretched salty tears in public?

And it seems almost fun.

Post edited at 18:09
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The Lemming 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Why hasn't the Honorable Gentleman for the 18th Century applied for the job?

He fought hard to get rid of the PM.

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Iamgregp 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Can't stand any of them, but if pushed I'd go Jeremy Hunt.  

Judgement may be swayed by the fact I put 20 quid on him being the next leader a few months back.  Just because it never seems to be the front runners who get it in the end. 

Part of me thinks that Gove and Boris, although both have a good number of supporters, have a good deal of detractors too.  Put those two aside and Hunt's your man?

Cosmic.

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Eric9Points 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Pursued by a bear:

> Quite.  I was thinking of 'which severe gastro-intestinal complaint would you like to suffer from in the middle of a long-haul flight?' as an analogy.  Striking that we both went for something unpleasantly lavatorial.

> T.


I was going to ask which jobby sandwich would you like. A continuation of the theme really.

Rory Stewart but he's got absolutely no chance.

Sajiv David would be a realistic choice and a wise one for the tories as he's less despised than the rest of them.

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deepsoup 11 Jun 2019
In reply to DerwentDiluted:

> Who would you like to see, in a few years,  shuffling out of office, haggard, humiliated, despised by the nation and an abject failure, possibly even weeping wretched salty tears in public?

It's unworthy I know, but I'm rather hoping one of the assassination attempts will be successful.

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The New NickB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

Something about Javid makes me think the membership won’t go for him. Can’t think what it is!

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Bellie 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Harper. Although if it was Rory Stewart, at least I'd have the honour of voting against a PM at the next election.

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balmybaldwin 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Bellie:

I think I would least hate Rory as PM, but I fear that the last 2 will be Hunt and Johnson, and the Tory membership will choose Boris

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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Boris. Then we can watch them tear themselves asunder and have a general election.

Raab might achieve this quicker but even the party membership aren't going to vote for a cyborg killing machine.

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skog 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

Something about Sajiv Javid bothers me, but I can't quite put my finger on it.

https://i.imgur.com/pulHkFk.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/zLA1lWz.jpg

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skog 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

They're all utterly awful, apart from Rory the Tory, who is merely awful.

So him, I suppose.

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earlsdonwhu 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Isn't it so depressing that out of a large field there is NO candidate that inspires widespread confidence among the Tory faithful ( if any still exist) let alone the general population?

The Labour party is little better with a dreadful front bench and Libdems are waiting on a leader too.

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Yanis Nayu 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Surprised nobody has mentioned the intellectual heavyweight that is Esther McVey. 

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Yanis Nayu 11 Jun 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

> It’s a bit like asking which toilet bowl I’d like to drink from. I guess Stewart. It’s got so bad Hunt seems one of the more sensible options.

Only if they’d all got shit in them. 

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Sean Kelly 11 Jun 2019
In reply to skog:

> They're all utterly awful, apart from Rory the Tory, who is merely awful.

> So him, I suppose.

But has anybody read his book, lodged with the climbing section at Waterstones today.

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EarlyBird 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Stewart - although I don't think his pitch is really aimed at this election.

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MG 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

 I get a vote (between two) as I saw this coming and have been paying £2/month for  six months.  I'll be the UKC delegate and vote Stewart if he makes the final, or come back for further instructions if not.

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Bob Hughes 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Rory Stewart, although his plan is to take another run at getting May's withdrawal agreement through which is arguably as bonkers as some of the other 'plans' available.

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Pursued by a bear 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

I've met Ms McVey. I wasn't impressed.

If that's the choice of the Conservative party then they, and the country, are <word deleted. It rhymes with ducked>.

T.

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john arran 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Hughes:

> Rory Stewart, although his plan is to take another run at getting May's withdrawal agreement through which is arguably as bonkers as some of the other 'plans' available.

As he will be very aware, such a plan is doomed to failure, so with any luck he's being smart and playing a longer game that involves some subsequent alternative, possibly another referendum. For that slim hope alone he would get my vote, since all the others seem to be offering no viable future whatsoever.

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Le Sapeur 11 Jun 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

> Why hasn't the Honorable Gentleman for the 18th Century applied for the job?

Because he knows now isn't the time. Give him a few years......

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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to MG:

Don’t romanticise him just because he wrote a good book and isn’t visibly a bucking fastard. Check his voting record - hardly progressive.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24964/rory_stewart/penrith_and_the_border/votes

Scroll down.

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MG 11 Jun 2019
In reply to pasbury:

Im not. But in comparison to the other candidates (and Corbyn) he's great. 

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FactorXXX 11 Jun 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Boris. Then we can watch them tear themselves asunder and have a general election.

Great, we get to choose between him and Corbyn to run the country.
 

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Le Sapeur 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

> Isn't it so depressing that out of a large field there is NO candidate that inspires widespread confidence among the Tory faithful ( if any still exist)

42.4% of voters in the last election put their X on the ballot paper for the Tories. Lots of if's here, but, if we are out of Europe before the next election and Farage's party have fizzled out again, the Tory faithful will still be there. If the Lib Dems have a resurgence, the centre left vote will be split, and then we can all look forward to JR-M in the hot seat. I doubt his wife, Helena Anne Beatrix Wentworth Fitzwilliam de Chair, will be at the front door in her dressing gown though.

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stevieb 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

For the next 5 years, I'd choose Rory. But right now I think Boris deserves everything that's coming

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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to FactorXXX:

No I think it would be at least a four way split, the hung parliament of all hung parliaments. Lab, Con, Brexit, SDP, Libdem, even a bit of green in there.

A clusterf*ck of disagreement and dischord. But hopefully leading to something better.

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Gordon Stainforth 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Le Sapeur:

If the Lib Dems have a resurgence they will take away a lot of seats from the Tories who'll have a more precarious majority than they otherwise would have had. 

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gavmac 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

If that odious Leadsom won, I would move to the moon.

Or the buffoon.

Or that greasy faced Gove.

Or Jeremy the #unt

Or Raab the scab.

Or ... oh feck I’m moving to the moon.

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Robert Durran 11 Jun 2019
In reply to EarlyBird:

> Stewart - although I don't think his pitch is really aimed at this election.

Maybe aimed at the election of a leader of a new more centrist party which might emerge from the ashes of the tory party once they have finally torn themselves apart over Brexit.

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The New NickB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Pursued by a bear:

> I've met Ms McVey. I wasn't impressed.

I remember her as a kids TV presenter, I think she was overstretched doing that to be honest.

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earlsdonwhu 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Given the numbers in parliament and general chaos, it is also amazing that so many are volunteering to try to solve the problems.  The poisoned chalice has not vanished. Perhaps it is just a lust for power..... Or perhaps it is a sign that they are all so stupid and over estimating their own abilities that they believe they can find solutions.

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Gordon Stainforth 11 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Rory Stewart, as many others have said, is the best of an exceptionally bad bunch. I don't think we've ever had a situation like this where the fate of our country rests with such an inadequate collection of thick, ignorant, malicious and egotistical half-wits. There are different groupings: the thick and ignorant (Raab and McVey - terrifyingly dim); the weird, extreme zealots (Hunt); the plain weird and nerdy (Gove); the utterly nondescript and inexperienced (Hancock, Harper); the egotistical, irrational extremist (Javid); and the hugely egotistical, lazy, shambolic, hypocritical, self-contradictory charlatan, Boris. I also think he's probably further to the right than anything we've ever seen in British mainstream politics before. Except ... Andrea Leadsom. The most terrifying of the lot. Because, added to her glaring stupidity and ignorance, I believe she is subversive. She actually wants to subvert/bypass our parliamentary democracy (as demonstrated by her disgraceful behaviour today). What is so shocking is that, until a few weeks ago, she was Leader of the House of Commons; yet she seems to have almost no grasp of our constitution and particularly of our Parliamentary procedure/precedents. Incredibly, she seems to loathe parliament and has her own agenda (well, that of the ERG, I suppose), which is to undermine it or circumvent it.  

Edit: Ok, that was a bit of an extreme rant, but I think this situation is so dire, so serious, that there's no room for mincing words.

Post edited at 21:17
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Is Sam Gyimah not still a thing? Out of the rabble I’ve so far heard of, I’d go for him.

jcm

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baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

I think you summed the contestants up perfectly.

No need to apologise.

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Gordon Stainforth 11 Jun 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

I think he's dropped out. May be wrong.

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The New NickB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

> Is Sam Gyimah not still a thing? Out of the rabble I’ve so far heard of, I’d go for him.

No, having set out a reasonably sensible route forward, he couldn't find 8 Tory MPs to support him.

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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> I think he's dropped out. May be wrong.

He did, not enough bile and hatred make the cut.

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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to baron:

Are you not a Tory voter though? If so who would fit the bill?

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earlsdonwhu 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

I love your résumé of the situation and share your pessimism.

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Wainers44 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

So with your wonderful summary in mind, maybe the whole lot will cancel each other out through a combination of ignorance, arrogance, personality deficiency, or excess self ambition leaving the way open for the dark Lord from the 18th century? He's held back for a reason for sure... 

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baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Are you not a Tory voter though? If so who would fit the bill?

I was. Failure to deliver Brexit has removed any inclination to vote for them. Certainly in the short term and probably in the long term as well.

Just as well given the sorry state of the leadership candidates.

As an aside, my mother, a long time Conservative voter, has vowed never to vote for them again since the BBC announcement on free TV licences. 

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Archy Styrigg 11 Jun 2019
In reply to baron:

> As an aside, my mother, a long time Conservative voter, has vowed never to vote for them again since the BBC announcement on free TV licences. 

She's concerned about the really serious issues then?

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baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Archy Styrigg:

> She's concerned about the really serious issues then?

Indeed!  

Ignore those pensioners at your peril!

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Robert Durran 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

>  I also think he's probably further to the right than anything we've ever seen in British mainstream politics before.

I'm not sure he is either left or right (by tory standards). He is just utterly unprincipled and will go with whichever way the wind is blowing towards power. Isn't that also how he came out as a Leaver in the first place?

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Gordon Stainforth 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Yes, that's why I said he's self-contradictory. If he comesout to the 'left' as a Tory I don't think we've got much to worry about. I'm fairly sure, however, that in the leadership stakes he'll be playing the game of I'm more extremely right than you are. (Like Leadsom today with the whole fox-hunting thing.)

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Postmanpat 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> Yes, that's why I said he's self-contradictory. If he comesout to the 'left' as a Tory I don't think we've got much to worry about. I'm fairly sure, however, that in the leadership stakes he'll be playing the game of I'm more extremely right than you are. (Like Leadsom today with the whole fox-hunting thing.)

>

I rather doubt that he's got the vaguest idea what he would do as PM so he can't really be described as left or right. I'm still baffled as to why he is popular (if he is) except that he provides lots of soundbites for lazy journalists.

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Gordon Stainforth 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Postmanpat:

I hope you're right, Nick - that he's such a charlatan that he doesn't really stand anywhere. I'm simply expressing a very realistic fear: that he'll now be playing the extreme right card for all it's worth.

His extreme tax relief plans for the wealthy are the first signs of this.

Plus his gung-ho pronouncements about not paying back the EU what we owe. I thought those kind of national chauvinist attitudes had died a death in the early years of the Great War.

Post edited at 23:02
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pasbury 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Thing is he doesn’t give a f*ck about what you or I think unless we’re members of the Conservative party, if he makes the cut he’s in; Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Elected to the post by a majority of <insert suitable description of Tory party members here> old f*cking wankers - that’s my own description.

But I think that cloud will have a silver(ish) lining.

General election please.

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baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to pasbury:

Could this be the Tory plan?

A general election which passes the poison chalice to Labour and lets the Conservatives off the hook?

Mr Corbyn would love that.

Or maybe he wouldn’t.

The plan would hinge on Labour winning an election which isn’t guaranteed.

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Tyler 12 Jun 2019
In reply to David Riley:

> Andrea Leadsom.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha......

Holey shit, you're actually serious aren't you you frigging lunatic?

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krikoman 12 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Stewart for me too, though it is like choosing which bowl of piss to drink.

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deepsoup 12 Jun 2019
In reply to skog:

> Something about Sajiv Javid bothers me, but I can't quite put my finger on it.

Not only that, he's also the sworn enemy of International Rescue:

http://www.tv-nostalgie.de/Sound/Thunderbirds/Hood.jpg

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SuperstarDJ 12 Jun 2019
In reply to Sean Kelly:

> But has anybody read his book, lodged with the climbing section at Waterstones today.

Yes, 'The Places In Between' is well worth a read. I read another one he wrote 'Can Intervention Work?' about the UN in Afghanistan which was thoughtful and pragmatic (conclusion, only in very very limited ways).

He's an interesting bloke and head and shoulders above the rest of the Tory candidates and I expect most of the Tory party. 

I'd take him over Corbyn as PM. Stewart is a smart guy, intellectually curious, a patriot in the best sense, and an able administrator. He's had a privileged life but has used his advantages to good with a varied career and rich hinterland.

He represents the best side of a party I broadly disagree with, rather than the worst excesses of good one ( my view of Corbyn - although I think Labour's moral authority as 'good party' has been almost completely destroyed in the last few years).

As far as all the guff about 'his voting record' goes, this (by the excellent Marie Le Conte) shows how this can be misleading https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/theyworkforyou

I can't see Stewart winning, both main parties (and probably the Lib Dems) are in the hands of hobbyists - entitled cranks who are wildly unrepresentative of the population as a whole. We'll end up with the right wing version of Corbyn - someone who'll please the fifty something men of the shires but be out of touch, out of their depth and utterly unfit to do the job. God help us.

I do think that Rory Stewart's grown up and more honest campaign might force some reality into the contest, raise the quality of the debate, and remind some Tory members of their one nation and small c conservative heritage. They might go for a more unifying and less kamikaze person than otherwise.

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George Ormerod 12 Jun 2019
In reply to DerwentDiluted:

> Who would you like to see, in a few years,  shuffling out of office, haggard, humiliated, despised by the nation and an abject failure, possibly even weeping wretched salty tears in public?

Years?????

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jkarran 12 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Stewart. Not dim, not a zealot.

Unburdened by too much ideological brexit bullshit so he should be able to think again pragmatically when (repeating May's) plan-A fails.

My guess is we get Hunt who'll eventually find himself in the same position with a little less room to manoeuvre.

jk

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Dave Garnett 12 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

Like most people, I would choose Rory Stewart as the one I could probably enjoy a beer with.  However, of the candidates who have a realistic chance, despite his undoubted strangeness and his weathercock politics, I think Hunt is the one who might be the least incompetent.

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john arran 12 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> My guess is we get Hunt

I saw a headline recently that said "Fox backs Hunt", which I thought summed up the Brexit spirit rather well.

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Trevers 12 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Johnson.

No seriously, I mean it.

Firstly, he's not actually the worst of them. That would be Raab, who appears to think that suspending democracy to enable Brexit is acceptable (I mean we pretty much have already, so why not make it explicit.) Or McVey or Leadsome, but they're outside bets. Hunt and Javid would also be utterly dreadful. Johnson at least doesn't appear to find it humiliating to appeal to anything other than deeply regressive values.

Secondly, I think we can safely ignore most of what he's saying at the moment. This election is essentially a dishonesty and nastiness contest. Johnson is the most likely to simply ignore everything he's said so far.

Thirdly, he's malleable. Should it become politically impossible to avoid a second referendum/revoking A50, as may well become the case, Johnson will do it if it helps him cling on to power and popularity. The zealots will go down and drag the country with them. Moreover, he's perhaps the candidate best able to cancel Brexit in a way that is palatable to the average leave voter, and hence take the momentum out of Farage. In much the same way that if Trump suddenly had an epiphany regarding climate change and started ranting all over twitter about how we urgently need to cooperate to reduce carbon emissions, his average supporter would probably convince themself they'd believed that all along.

Finally, it's going to happen at some point. It's not good for our politics to have the threat of Johnson's arsehole actions in his quest to become PM looming over absolutely everything. So let's just get it over with and hope that events conspire to reverse Brexit and remove him from power sooner rather than later.

For the record, I absolutely despise the man and thought he was capable to serious damage to our society years ago. In normal times, Stewart would be my pick without second thoughts.

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Gordon Stainforth 12 Jun 2019
In reply to Trevers:

What an interesting theory. It seems wildly optimistic, but you may just be right ...

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In reply to The Lemming:

That thought had occurred to me too. I despise the barsteward even more (which I did not think possible). He is, after all, one of those who laid the golden turd and he can't be bothered to clear up afterwards.

In answer to the OP Rory Stewart is the most moderate but I don't suppose that is saying much.

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Trevers 12 Jun 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> What an interesting theory. It seems wildly optimistic, but you may just be right ...

Believe me I don't relish the prospect, I just think that the odds on us being completely screwed are lower with Johnson than with certain other of the candidates, especially those with a fighting chance.

Gove might also not be a complete disaster, but to be honest I trust him even less than Johnson, from the sense that I know when Johnson is being dishonest (i.e. always) and I find Gove's motives far more difficult to perceive.

Post edited at 14:03
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In reply to Trevers:

I’ve heard this theory before. I’m not sure. Obviously Johnson’s an unprincipled liar, but he’s also a massive egotist. Having come out with this stuff, I’m really not sure I see him climbing down.

jcm

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Trevers 12 Jun 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

> I’ve heard this theory before. I’m not sure. Obviously Johnson’s an unprincipled liar, but he’s also a massive egotist. Having come out with this stuff, I’m really not sure I see him climbing down.

I don't think it's likely. But I'm not suggesting that Johnson is intending to climb down. I'm not sure he thinks too many steps ahead, just plays the game as it currently stands. I certainly don't see his ego as being a blocker for U-turns, for the simple reason that I don't think he's ever been personally committed to anything he's ever supported.

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MonkeyPuzzle 12 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

According to BBC live reporting, Javid has the best canapes and booze at his launch, which could really turn this race on its head.

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spartacus 12 Jun 2019
In reply to SuperstarDJ:

I had a days walking with Rory Stewart in Scotland (on a social occasion) a few years ago. I was very impressed, he was intelligent, articulate and fascinating in his views, particularly on the situation at the time in the Middle East. 

We were high on the Cairngorm plateau all day in cold, rain and wind which he bore with good humour. 

I would vote for him. 

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MargieB 12 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Andrea Leadsom. At first I thought Boris, but for shear consistency of WTO rules, what you see is what you get,  she is the most zealous and representative. She would go to the edge and maybe a No confidence vote will be triggered a GE and 2nd referendum parties get the go ahead to fight this. She is a good ERG Jacob Rees Mog surrogate PM. Think Boris will win cause he is manipulative and what you see is not what you get- in line with Tory tradition. Much more difficult to beat.

Post edited at 16:55
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Rob Exile Ward 12 Jun 2019
In reply to spartacus:

Unfortunately, no one else will. What he's even doing in the Tory party defeats me, he really should join the LibDems.

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MargieB 12 Jun 2019
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

He needs more Afghanistan/ Highland epiphanies before he can join the Lib Dems. 

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FactorXXX 12 Jun 2019
In reply to spartacus:

> We were high on the Cairngorm plateau all day in cold, rain and wind which he bore with good humour. 

The mans an out and out opium fiend!

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Tringa 12 Jun 2019
In reply to FactorXXX:

Ignoring the way any of them want to take the country I'd say - Rory Stewart.

At least he has had experience in negotiating is his earlier roles.

Dave

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SuperstarDJ 12 Jun 2019
In reply to spartacus:

He is an appealing character, to me anyway. Mind you I voted for Liz Kendall for Labour Leader in 2015 so know how to pick a loser. Expect him to poll 4%.

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HansStuttgart 12 Jun 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Finally, it's going to happen at some point. It's not good for our politics to have the threat of Johnson's arsehole actions in his quest to become PM looming over absolutely everything. So let's just get it over with and hope that events conspire to reverse Brexit and remove him from power sooner rather than later.

good point. 2 months of PM Johnson, 2 months of PM Corbyn, and then an election with normal party leaders again.

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ben b 13 Jun 2019
In reply to HansStuttgart:

And those 4 months would cost about a trillion each off GDP.

SuperstarDJs post re Rory Stewart is, I think, very accurate. The problem is he's actually competent, thoughtful, and less egotistical than the rest of the pack and therefore would be best off not getting the job - which will be entirely impossible for any human being with morals, a conscience, or any form of consistent understanding or commitment. It is, therefore, pretty much nailed on for Boris as a result. 

What an utter clusterf*ck we find ourselves in.

b

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mike123 13 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu: I think this is a good idea . Despite really really not wanting or trusting any of the Cnutweasels  , whoever wins is going to have to have a go at sorting things out,  so we ( not just ukc ) should have a say in who that is . They should all stand in a line and we should all put our hands up for each one in turn . Hang on . To make it fair there should be be a few chaps and chapesses with different ideas and different coloured ties  in the line as well so that if we really really think the ones in the line are untrustworthy cnutweasels ( see above ) we could put  our hands for them instead. . The original cnutweasels could all pack their bags and the new ( hopefully less cnutweaselly ones)  could move in and have a go . Now what could we call that ? 

In answer to the original question . Thought Rory at first now think boris for the reasons given in the last few posts. Will change my mind later today and so on . 

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Rob Exile Ward 13 Jun 2019
In reply to mike123:

I think we're entering an era not dissimilar to the 60s and 70s - when the incompetence of governments of both sides in dealing with the new and rapidly evolving political and economic landscape  resulted in almost terminal decline. Massive unemployment and poverty, restricted life chances for many, rapidly declining environment, lack of inward investment, constantly devaluing pound … the country was at a pretty low ebb by 1979. I was there; I remember it well.

I see no alternative at the moment to a bumbling Boris Johnson crashing us out of the EU on Oct 31 and causing devastation to the UK economy; a significant rise in tension in N Ireland; a growth in institutionalised tax evasion and law breaking; and increasingly desperate attempts by the government to prop up institutions like the NHS and defence from a rapidly diminishing revenue pot. And all the while Boris will be blustering that 'We didn't expect this' and, of course, that old favourite 'it wasn't our fault - it's the EU wanted to punish us.' And all the while he will be posing for photo opportunities, sh*gging journalists and socialising with the mega rich who stand to get even richer from the market volatility and snapping up assets in fire sales. And, of course, any moves to tackle climate change, reduce consumption and reduce poverty and inequality will be blown away by short-term, economic realities - i.e., no cash.

While JC will continue to  bleat irrelevancies from the sidelines, continue to lose GEs spectacularly and continue to advocate the same solutions that were tried and failed in the 50s and 60s. And on a world stage, of course, we become very much sidelined, reflecting our size, our diminished economy and our clearly demonstrated total political incompetence.

Apart from that, everything looks peachy.

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jkarran 13 Jun 2019
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Corbyn's days are numbered, the membership may well oust him over his brexit leadership failure let alone when he misses an open goal at the next GE.

jk

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Bob Kemp 13 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Simon Heffer, arch-Brexiter, conservative and Telegraph writer, demolishes Johnson, an "idle, lying charlatan":

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/supporting-boris-johnson-desperate-mps-know-they-are-backing-idle-lying

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Eric9Points 13 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> Corbyn's days are numbered, the membership may well oust him over his brexit leadership failure let alone when he misses an open goal at the next GE.

> jk


What gives you that idea?

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Archy Styrigg 13 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Well, it looks like the man that thinks spending money on prosecuting child abusers is spunking it up a wall, we are well and truly f*cked.

Post edited at 13:15
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MargieB 13 Jun 2019
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

No deal  has not been stopped - vote to stop it  lost last night.

So  No confidence in government is only mechanism left.

If Corbyn tables something it doesn't seem to work - if Lib Dems did, it might in October.

Post edited at 14:44
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jkarran 13 Jun 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> What gives you that idea?

He's miles out of line with his party on Europe, haemorrhaging support on two fronts. I don't think they'll stand for it much longer given he and the bad advice he's taking are clearly the direct cause of Labour's current dire polling. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe the Momentum bubble is thick enough to insulate him.

jk

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MargieB 13 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

And everything from Rory Stewart to Boris is rubbish...!

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Eric9Points 13 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I have the very definite impression that a lot of the new party members think Jeremy can do no wrong. It's a bit like a fan club for a boy band.

The other point, which is actually fair enough, is that there are other things that matter apart from Brexit such as zero hours contracts and the hostile environment. A lot of members seem to believe, rightly or wrongly, that Jeremy is the man to fix all that.

I don't think we'll see a change before a General election.

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jkarran 13 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

> And everything from Rory Stewart to Boris is rubbish...!

I do agree but I'm not quite sure what this is in response to. General frustration at the dearth of leadership quality in this time of crisis?

jk

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jkarran 13 Jun 2019
In reply to Eric9Points:

> I have the very definite impression that a lot of the new party members think Jeremy can do no wrong. It's a bit like a fan club for a boy band.

I'm sure some do but not all, I voted for him or more to the point a more distinctive left leaning voice for Labour. I was wrong. Arguably he hasn't found that, not in a way that connects credibly with the public anyway and less arguably his weak opposition and failure to lead on brexit been a disaster.

> The other point, which is actually fair enough, is that there are other things that matter apart from Brexit such as zero hours contracts and the hostile environment. A lot of members seem to believe, rightly or wrongly, that Jeremy is the man to fix all that.

But none of this can realistically be addressed by a government drowning in brexit contradictions as Labour intends to be with their 'jobs first brexit'. They need to be bold and honest or it will destroy them as surely as it has ruined the Conservative party.

> I don't think we'll see a change before a General election.

Hard to say with certainty but that seems likely.

jk

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MargieB 14 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

Agree. It needs expanding. Rory Stewart is a very reasonable man but his reasoning is not fully formed in my book. He is reasoning the impossible and in that  he is bamboozaling himself {and the electorate- possibly eventually GE}. He seriously is following a train of thought that we can achieve a fantastic inward flowing investment plan outside of the EU with some goody arrangement with them. Outside of the EU our investment decreases, with WTO rules we become prey to investment at the cost of other values, eg environmental, agricultural, possibly NHS. The logic for Rory would be to stay within EU and reform within it.  He hasn't had that epiphany yet.

Boris is the WTO, unfettered capitalism brigade, with dire consequences for this country- starting with greed as the starting point and factoring in little else. This of course appeals to the core conservative mentality that just love the bribe of decreased tax at the top end and a disintegrating country { but we're all right jack}.

Rory is more disturbing than Boris because his ideas are incomplete but  he Sounds very plausible. Ummmmmmmm............Could distract from the real reality of our economy.

We are hostage to a system of minority rule through s distorted FPTP system and now it is coming to roost. They should be proportionately represented. And even an idea of a group going to EU for a natter only involves conservatives- of the Scottish variety?? Excuse me, they are not dominant in Scotland.

The fact that we are watching the Tory Party leadership with disproportionate interest is because the system is so rigged that this has become the focus of attention which it should not be. The fate of our country lies disproportionately in their hands and I think we ought to see this and hopefully this constitutional aberration can be reformed.

Post edited at 10:44
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jkarran 14 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

> Rory is more disturbing than Boris because his ideas are incomplete but  he Sounds very plausible. Ummmmmmmm............Could distract from the real reality of our economy.

I'll take the incompletely formed ideas of a thoughtful man over the complete but explicitly shit ideas of a self interested charlatan personally. One offers at least a glimmer of hope.

> The fact that we are watching the Tory Party leadership with disproportionate interest is because the system is so rigged that this has become the focus of attention which it should not be. The fate of our country lies disproportionately in their hands and I think we ought to see this and hopefully this constitutional aberration can be reformed.

Totally agree but it can't. Not by ordinary democratic means anyway. Any party taking power has a vested interest in preserving or entrenching the system that brought it to power. That system is evolved and constantly evolving to exclude up-starts who might disrupt it. Maybe that evolution has just been outpaced by Farage's cult, his funders and their advertising machines but if that is the case, just wait and watch as they dig in rather than deliver electoral reform. 

Perhaps the coming brexit and populist far-right calamity will be the spark for revolution but I doubt it. In many ways I hope not because it will grisly and protracted and doomed to fail. Likely we shrug, accept our new lot and just have to live through another decade or two of looting.

jk

Post edited at 11:08
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MargieB 14 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

It probably will be the complete man with completely shit ideas of a self interested charlatan personality, formerly known as Boris.

But this sinking back to the old system? I don't think so- because there is one propellant and that is Scottish independence. If things get so bad, the hard rock of UK politics and the hard place {imo} economy of a Scottish independence comes into play. Now, I personally think independence is a particularly hard economic choice for us and it would resort to a choice between two weevils {aka Master and Commander film} but independence may become, on balance the better choice. One can't underestimate how much the down side of a terrible Conservative vision will propel that choice into reality!! I for one, may very reluctantly vote for it.

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jkarran 14 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

The way I see it is Scotland and NI both break away from the UK if we leave the EU now*, can't see how that can be avoided. The only real questions are how long it takes and how much blood is spilled in the process.

*still 50/50 as it has been since the referendum IMO

jk

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MargieB 14 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

It does seem to me a crisis moment. Trumps's visit was good timing because his aging mind has somehow acted like a truth drug whereby he says what he means:  when he says American companies are looking to undermine  free universal health care as we know it, he means it. Even the Price of Whales  gaff is his mind telling him a truth. 

It is  one  crucial political roll of the dice: No confidence in October, GE, a party or coalition that agrees a second referendum. Lots and lots of ifs and buts in a short space of time. Eu elections was a overall majority for staying in EU, I read, no matter how you read those results. Those parties are generally PR/constitutional reform as well. 

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MargieB 14 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I'll say one thing in favour of Corbyn, he did start to negotiate with May the compromise softer Brexit option of a customs union. But this failed to reach agreement. Rory Stewart seems to be returning to this idea when his own party has rejected it and it would not go through Parliament because of his own party. Rory Stewart seems to have forgotten this and also that the EU elections firmly defined Brexit as WTO rules, since May/Corbyn chat was still play when those elections happened and neither Con nor Labour got a mandate vote for this idea.

Stewart is chasing a past train that has already left the station.

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elsewhere 14 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

And the rest of them are chasing trains* that never existed?

*such as  £350M per week, total sovereignty, no trade barriers with EU (protection of EU trade rules without being subject to EU trade rules) and the easiest deal in history.

Post edited at 19:20
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Robert Durran 14 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

> Stewart is chasing a past train that has already left the station.

He must know that he has no chance in this leadership election. I suspect he is setting out his stall and raising his profile to play a major part, possibly as pm, in whatever rises from the ashes of the tory party once this whole grotesque Brexit fiasco is over. Good luck to him.

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earlsdonwhu 14 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Boris the hypocrite.... 2007

  Johnson hit out at the former Chancellor for taking the job at Number 10 without winning his own general election as leader, calling it a ‘gigantic fraud’. ‘It’s the arrogance. It’s the contempt. That’s what gets me,’ Johnson wrote. ‘It’s Gordon Brown’s apparent belief that he can just trample on the democratic will of the British people. ‘It’s at moments like this that I think the political world has gone mad, and I am alone in detecting the gigantic fraud.’ Johnson argued that voters had elected Labour MPs on the belief that Tony Blair would remain Prime Minister for a third term. However, after facing growing pressure to resign, Brown took over from him without a leadership contest in May 2007. Calling the change in leadership a scandal, Johnson continued: ‘In 2005, there was a large number who voted Labour on the strength of a dwindling but still significant respect for the Prime Minister. ‘They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal. ‘The extraordinary thing is that it looks as though he will now be in 10 Downing Street for three years, and without a mandate from the British people.’ 

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Bob Hughes 14 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

> Agree. It needs expanding. Rory Stewart is a very reasonable man but his reasoning is not fully formed in my book. He is reasoning the impossible and in that  he is bamboozaling himself {and the electorate- possibly eventually GE}.  He seriously is following a train of thought that we can achieve a fantastic inward flowing investment plan outside of the EU with some goody arrangement with them. Outside of the EU our investment decreases, with WTO rules we become prey to investment at the cost of other values, eg environmental, agricultural, possibly NHS. The logic for Rory would be to stay within EU and reform within it.  He hasn't had that epiphany yet.

That’s not how I understand Stewart’s position. I think he is saying that he would prefer to be in the EU but that the  referendum result changes everything. Ie the political calamity of reversing / ignoring the referendum result is worse than the economic calamity of leaving.

> Boris is the WTO, unfettered capitalism brigade, with dire consequences for this country- starting with greed as the starting point and factoring in little else. This of course appeals to the core conservative mentality that just love the bribe of decreased tax at the top end and a disintegrating country { but we're all right jack}.

Johnson has, since his launch, taken a softer line saying he would prefer to have a deal. Of course you never know with Johnson so take that with a pinch of salt. But the logic of his position leads you right back to Mays withdrawal agreement. 

Either leave on 31 October with a lightly modified withdrawal agreement ( same as Stewart )

Or leave on 31 October with no agreement, try to open negotiations for an FTA with Eu and you are right back at the withdrawal agreement. In fairness Johnson would probably say that by then the whole Irish border issue will have been shown up to be the charade he thinks it is.

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thomasadixon 14 Jun 2019
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

You don’t see a difference in situations?  Labour were re elected because of Tony Blair, the Tories were elected in spite of May’s failings.  Tony had specifically promised to serve out a third term.

Bob Hughes - if we’ve left we can’t right back to where we are with the transition arrangement.  A TA is only required because of their interpretation of article 50 and if we’ve left that article no longer applies to us.  They won’t be able to say they’re not allowed to discuss anything else.

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Bob Hughes 14 Jun 2019
In reply to thomasadixon:

> Bob Hughes - if we’ve left we can’t right back to where we are with the transition arrangement.  A TA is only required because of their interpretation of article 50 and if we’ve left that article no longer applies to us.  They won’t be able to say they’re not allowed to discuss anything else.

Their 3 core demands of paying up, Irish border and citz rights will remain the same and they will set those as conditions to entering talks. Only it will be harder to reach an agreement because, as an FTA it will need unanimous approval of the member states and ratification by all sorts of minor provinces like wallonia.

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HansStuttgart 14 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Hughes:

> Their 3 core demands of paying up, Irish border and citz rights will remain the same and they will set those as conditions to entering talks. Only it will be harder to reach an agreement because, as an FTA it will need unanimous approval of the member states and ratification by all sorts of minor provinces like wallonia.


Yep. Even if the UK agrees to those three conditions and enters the talks, I don't think there will be a transition arrangement for during the talks. Because the current design of the transition is legally connected to the a50 process and that is gone after no deal.

But I don't think no deal will happen. There is still (barely) enough common sense in the UK (both the people and parliament) to choose extension over no deal. And for the EU the cost of extension is getting lower and lower because the UK is simply not competent enough (by losing goodwill) to abuse its remaining time as an EU member. This is in contrast to the cost of no deal for the EU, which is increasing (companies were better prepared at March 31). So the EU can afford to extend. Cue there will be a decade of extension without anything happening. This process will stop once the UK chooses between the deal and revocation.

I expect revocation to win this, but it will take time (as in years).

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MargieB 12:29 Sun
In reply to Bob Hughes:

I watched Andrew marr show today with Rory Stewart and I think he does prioritize the referendum /democracratic legitimacy above all else.- at the moment

But how will this notion lie when he loses to Boris?  he doesn't want to contemplate this today because he aims to win. I think other parties have predicted the outcome and are preparing. Rory is up for an elimination.

I'm afraid my bet is on Boris. So would Rory Stewart support no confidence in these new circumstances and a GE when parties advocate a second referendum? I think he would.. Would he think it is undermining democracy or  adding -in a democratic process on the options that are ever clarifying-  which look ever likely to  be WTO rules versus remain in EU. ? I think he would be compelled into that view. 

Post edited at 12:30
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MargieB 09:18 Wed
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Farage said he will work theTories in general election.

So has the Tory Party become the Tory Ukip party or Tory BNP party with him saying this, given Farage's affiliations?? Should we be as wary  of back door politics as ever where we don't iknow who is who.

So is it which of the 11 candidates are to be  choosen from!!!!

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jkarran 10:16 Wed
In reply to MargieB:

> Stewart is chasing a past train that has already left the station.

Agreed, none of them are pushing a remotely workable plan-A to their electorate and those with a stated plan-B look set to run into the same hurdles that felled May. All but Stewart making the hard-line pitch makes sense, they're differentiating themselves from the failed May and this is what will sell to the radicalised membership. Stewart's more moderate pitch may sell to the moderate Conservative MPs at least giving him a chance to put a case to the members and if that fails he has at least built his profile. Being out on his own, out of step with the membership makes some sense, if he wasn't he'd have been knocked out with the other also-ran loons, not still in contention.

I don't doubt they will all try their plan-A and maybe B. What I'm more interested in and it does require quite a bit of speculation is which of them has the wit, creativity and has left themselves sufficient room to manoeuvre once the pantomime is over and real progress needs to be made to try something radically different.

Do any of them really intend to crash us out in that case, knowing it just puts them right back where they failed before, needing a deal but under more pressure? None of them are dim but I accept they could be choosing their counsel carefully to avoid that realisation.

Are any of them willing to sacrifice the party in a GE to deliver brexit?

Do any of them have the skills to hold party and public together while offering us a new choice by referendum?

Beyond the bluster and entitled arrogance, do any of them really posses the diplomatic and sales skills May lacked to secure minor concessions from the EU then pull together their shattered party behind May's deal with added sprinkles?

I don't see any cause for hope but as ever, something has to change so it will.

jk

Post edited at 10:21
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MargieB 12:22 Wed
In reply to jkarran:

Farage has given the conservative party the answer- his supporters support. Boris is pretty dependent. Farage has played a clever game calling the one shot eu election just the Bexit party,  not a political party. But it is really an infiltration tactic of the cons because the Brexit party won the LEAVE DEFINITION AS WTO RULES and they can really call the shots in a GE.

That's it for Boris. Dependency. And what about the con membership- even Dominic Grieve didn't recognise the local membership when they tried to oust him. Full of Brexit "party" people changing the definition of conservatism.

Rory may get into the last two but not beyond and that is what counts. Jog on Rory as an independent.

No confidence in governent and GE is a terrible risk cause there will be WTO versus stay in EU. But it seems only way now.FPTP system is a distortion to beat as well. Awful situation.

Parliament should sit over summer- too serious. 

Post edited at 12:25
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MargieB 22:47 Wed
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

Rory Stewart gone.

I wish the focus was back in Parliament cause this leadership thing is creating a narrow band width of argument on the EU issue. The broader band width of argument lies within Parliament i.m.o.. 

Post edited at 22:52
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MargieB 10:16 Thu
In reply to jkarran:

Boris' options, in reality.

May deal still not accepted

Default Brexit not possible cause of Parliament stopping it.

Sacrificing Conservative party in a GE unpalatable.

He would prioritize the conservative retaining power to the next designated time of a GE, 2022. He needs time to build conservative profile in the years ahead to win a GE. He wants a sliver of difference from Farage to win the bland conservative middle ground that isn't attractive to Farage. He is boxed in by unicorn options. He wants to look different from Farage. Farage wants to hold him to ransom and challenge his space.

What would a wiley, chameleon like Boris have to do?

Pre-empt a no confidence vote because of  Parliamentary deadlock,: look reasonable by calling a second referendum on EU, so he is seen to beak the deadlock and he gets the credit for breaking not making an impossible situation {which he is responsible for at the moment},: this give tories more time in power, avoid GE and he hopes he can build the profile of the conservatives and his own before 2022. Only way to save the conservative party i.m.o.

Otherwise no confidence, GE and loss of con majority, even con party to be replaced by the Farage Party in effect. 

Boris has not many options in reality. 

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Harry Jarvis 10:30 Thu
In reply to MargieB:

> Pre-empt a no confidence vote because of  Parliamentary deadlock,: look reasonable by calling a second referendum on EU, so he is seen to beak the deadlock and he gets the credit for breaking not making an impossible situation {which he is responsible for at the moment},: this give tories more time in power, avoid GE and he hopes he can build the profile of the conservatives and his own before 2022. Only way to save the conservative party i.m.o.

> Otherwise no confidence, GE and loss of con majority, even con party to be replaced by the Farage Party in effect. 

> Boris has not many options in reality. 

An interesting theory, but unlikely, in my opinion. I doubt very much whether Johnson would dare call for a second referendum. There is such a head of steam behind Brexit, within the Tory party in particular and with the resurgent Farage, that to do so would be seen as a gross betrayal of the party and the electorate. The damage to the party would be considerable. It may be that Johnson is so lacking in principles that he would put himself ahead of party (and certainly ahead of the country) that he might countenance such a move, but I find it unlikely - the Tory party in Parliament would break down and it would be very hard for Johnson to govern. 

Add to that the possibility that a second referendum might result in a Remain result, which would also break the party. 

You're right that he has few options, but I doubt a second referendum is one of them. 

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MonkeyPuzzle 10:40 Thu
In reply to MargieB:

Johnson's plan so far: Become PM --> ...

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In reply to MargieB:

That was exactly my optimistic theory which I suggested on here a few days ago. Looking less likely now, but I'd still put it as high as a 25% possibility. The point is, as you rightly say, that he's likely to run out of options. Alternatively, he is a complete egotistic numskull and will go for a no-deal Brexit (as he claims) and do untold damage to the country (and eventually to himself ... the one consolation of such a disastrous scenario.)

Post edited at 10:59
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skog 11:16 Thu
In reply to MargieB:

> Default Brexit not possible cause of Parliament stopping it.

Where does this idea come from, please?

Parliament have already rejected the option to stop it at least twice, once on something brought forward by an SNP MP and once on something brought forward by a Labour MP.

And even if they've had a change of heart, how would they stop it anyway if they won't repeal article 50 and won't pass May's deal?

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jkarran 11:25 Thu
In reply to MargieB:

> Boris' options, in reality.

Agreed, after a brief pantomime he is very probably left with one bad option and one terrible option: election or referendum. Opinions will differ which is which.

> What would a wiley, chameleon like Boris have to do? Pre-empt a no confidence vote because of  Parliamentary deadlock,: look reasonable by calling a second referendum on EU, so he is seen to beak the deadlock and he gets the credit for breaking not making an impossible situation {which he is responsible for at the moment},: this give tories more time in power, avoid GE and he hopes he can build the profile of the conservatives and his own before 2022. Only way to save the conservative party i.m.o.

Totally agree. They need as many of the years remaining to 2022 as possible to re-frame this mess and tell a new story if the Conservative party is to survive. An election now or worse, post Halloween extension would be disastrous for them and us. Another string of delays into that period doesn't help even if the EU is willing. Equally cornering parliament or the the EU resulting in A50 being revoked will trigger a premature GE at best.

> Boris has not many options in reality. 

The one we mainly overlook, I presume because neither of us consider it especially credible is he is able to secure cosmetic concessions around the backstop then convince the ERG types it's now or never for leaving. That might just deliver him the numbers he needs or it might spook enough of the tory moderates who now face deselection anyway to rebel. I can't see it happening personally but there's a sliver of a chance and we live in interesting times.

jk

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In reply to skog:

> Parliament have already rejected the option to stop it at least twice, once on something brought forward by an SNP MP and once on something brought forward by a Labour MP.

The votes have been close and it's been far enough away from the actual crunch point that people would expect to be able to have another opportunity.    Anything brought forward by the SNP will be boycotted by the unionist parties on principle.

My guess is Boris will go full steam ahead for hard Brexit.   Looking super hard line but getting thwarted by parliament is not a bad outcome for Boris. 

The ERG Tories and the Brexit party aren't rivals, they are collaborators that are funded by the same people and coordinate with each other.   Once Boris gets the Tories to adopt Brexit party policies, Farage can stand aside for him entirely at the next GE, or only fight in Labour seats.   

If he can call a GE when the Brexit vote is enraged and united behind him but the Remain vote is split across several parties he can win with a majority big enough to implement all the Brexiteer funder's wet-dreams.

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skog 12:23 Thu
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

But how would parliament stop a hard brexit?

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skog 12:55 Thu

Also, somewhere along the line, 'hard brexit' seems to have started to mean 'no deal brexit'.

No deal is 'clusterf*ck brexit', where we've somehow failed to agree terms for leaving and a transition to our new setup; May's deal is an example of a hard brexit.

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MargieB 14:09 Thu
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

This is the risk in a early GE.

What evidence is there of the general trajectory of voting?Well perhaps The latest EU results that suggest that an early GE will produce no clear majority of any party: so, possibly a Remain  /2nd Ref party  that joins another 2nd ref party in government and supply arrangement -  a little like May had with DUP.

It is all highly risky. And the FPTP system all adds into that risk.

Post edited at 14:09
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pasbury 14:30 Thu
In reply to jkarran:

> The one we mainly overlook, I presume because neither of us consider it especially credible is he is able to secure cosmetic concessions around the backstop then convince the ERG types it's now or never for leaving. That might just deliver him the numbers he needs or it might spook enough of the tory moderates who now face deselection anyway to rebel. I can't see it happening personally but there's a sliver of a chance and we live in interesting times.

> jk

Maybe he'll use the threat of a second referendum as leverage. But then that wouldn't be a guarantee either! Though I'm doubtful there's a majority in Parliament for second vote.

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jkarran 14:41 Thu
In reply to pasbury:

> Maybe he'll use the threat of a second referendum as leverage. But then that wouldn't be a guarantee either! Though I'm doubtful there's a majority in Parliament for second vote.

Ever since they lit the fuse doing nothing indefinitely hasn't been an option. There isn't a majority for anything but unicorn dreaming yet but that simply isn't sustainable, if parliament can't change its mind we will have to change parliament which I don't think they want right now.

jk

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