UKH

If you are going to Nepal make sure you have cancellation insurance that covers political strife. The situation is worsening in the country and total breakdown looking increasingly likely. People close to the King are said to be moving their money out of the country - if true they are clearly smelling which way the wind is blowing.

If the King is deposed or flees the Maoist stand a good chance or taking power which will probably mean the military will seize power to resist that. It looks like a pretty miserable winter awaits the Nepalese.

An extensive look at the imminent collapse here: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3750

In reply to TobyA:
Concerning reading, was it anything other than being power hungry that made the king take over in the first place?

In reply to Graham T:

Many of his family being killed had something to do with it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1365393.stm

In reply to Stefan Lloyd: I don't think that is what Graham meant - he became king then, but dismissed the govt. only last year becoming a dictator.

Graham - the parties were doing a pretty piss-poor job and I think he thought he could do better. Sadly a) he couldn't and b) he dismissed a democratic - if not very good - govt. to do it.

In reply to TobyA:
S*** I'm supposed to going to Everest Base Camp in January 05. Any news?

In reply to frankierox:

Yes - you've missed your flight

In reply to Simon Caldwell:

Outstanding.

In reply to Simon Caldwell:

ha ha ...brilliant!!!!

In reply to Col:

Refund offered?

In reply to TobyA: I would be much more concerned about all the new glacial lakes that are rapidly building with global warming ,cos when they burst their terminal moraines all the poor communities down valley are gonna get f*cked. here we have a tradgedy just waiting.

And us rich westerners are bothered about it spoiling our hols........aahhhh shame!!!!

In reply to TobyA: hmmm. I'm sat in an internet cafe in Kathmandu and everyone on UKC seems to be saying that Nepal is about to turn into Fallujah. Sorry, but I'm not convinced ! There are far more tourists here than there were last year, and i feel much safer here than i do in any British city.

The time to start worrying will be when the touts here stop selling dope, crap violins or tiger balm and start selling flak jackets and ammunition.

Oh, and in case anyone is wondering - Rickshaw's do not have enough ground pressure to set off anti tank mines....

In reply to stu macdonald:


You have a great holiday then Stu.

I'll tell Reena Rasaili, 18, Ram Bail Pasi, aged 30, Amgad Yadav, aged 35, and Sakur Parsi, aged 45 that there is nothing to worry about. Oh no I can't... they're all dead. (See amnesty.org. Rasali was beaten and raped by soldiers before being shot in the head. The three men were locked in a house by the army which was then set on fire). Accoring to the US State Dept. 2005 HR report for Nepal: "since the beginning of the insurgency in 1996, there have been 17,963 cases of disappearances, 1,354 by the state and 16,609 by the insurgents. There have been no prosecutions of government officials or Maoists for their involvement in disappearances."

In reply to stu macdonald:

Good job there aren´t such things as AP mines then!!!!

Pete

In reply to TobyA:

Well Toby, I'll be there in 3 weeks time. (Amadablam via Kathmandu & Lukla.) What's your prognosis?

Especially for the Sherpa areas: I understand that they don't really feel part of Nepal. Could there be a Khumbu mini state next year?

By the way, which part of the Himalayas is now most politically incorrect. Nepal (from what you quote from AI), Tibet (because of China's takekover,) or Pakistan (as a base for Taliban/ Al Queda)?

In reply to MikeTS:

Take care, and try and spend as much of your budget on local businesses that really need whatever support they can get.

There's nothing 'politically correct' or 'incorrect' about anywhere - just be aware that you are in effect visiting a fascist dictatorship that kills and tortures its own people, whilst the money you might have to give to Maoist if you are stopped goes to propping up their control of regions where they also kill their opponents - including for example school teachers because they work for the government.

In reply to TobyA: Question:- A friend of mine has a son in an area near Manali .He goes bouldering alone into remote areas. His father has not heard from him for six weeks and is getting a bit worried. ( though this is with him at times not unusual)He Left the Manali area to start his hike from a tiny place called Chattru . Any knowledge of these areas ?

In reply to me.: All I know about Manali is from having been there twice. I don't want to potentially cause more worry but a number of foreigners have dissappeared in that region over the years. There are some little villages around the area that grow serious amounts of hash and are famous for being unfriendly to outsiders.

If your friend is worried he/she should contact their police in the UK, the Foreign Office and the Indian Embassy.

Having said that, Manali town itself is lovely though, very relaxed and lots of spaced out travellers around doing not much - I could imagine those who enjoy a smoke and taking it easy could easily go a few weeks with out thinking to phone home if you see what I mean.

Hope all turns out well for them.

In reply to TobyA:
Sorry, I thought you were making a PC statement.
If I meet Maoists can I quote you when I refuse to pay?
If I meet government officials (like getting visa) do I do the same?
I would really would like to help, but I can't see how buying my daughter a tibetan hat from a local stall is going to make Nepal more democratic: there must be a better way.

In reply to TobyA: Ive been out there in 95 when it was very bad,,a nd in 2003 when it was bad,,,if stopped and asked for a donation to the maoist,,just pay them the 1000nr,,if you see the army coming,,get the hell out of there,as more deaths have been from their SOPS of 360degree fire and a shoot to kill policy especialy after dusk,,I think people are moving money out of the country on the basis that they are in so much financial trouble that they will be announcing a devaluation of their currency,,so locals are selling it while its worth something,,Id still go out there ,,just stay in a group and stay out of the valley.I have a lot of nepalees friends( that i have worked with in the past) and anyone whanting true to life info about the situation can mail me direct and I can give advice on the state of play from the horses mouth,,and not from the UK Gov which is scaremongering for a political outcome benefitial to the UK,,ie no tourists no income = Nepal has to borrow from the IMF and round the circle it all goes..Go to Nepal spend your money enjoy the culture.

In reply to blurry:

Round all what goes? The art to coming up with bizarre conspiracy theories is to make them just possible enough for people to be able to believe in them. How does Nepal owing money to the IMF benefit Britain?

Anyway the UK govt. isn't not recommending travel to Nepal at all. They just suggest taking care whilst your there.

I'm not quite sure which bit of 20,000 dissappearances you think is "scare mongering"?

In reply to MikeTS:


One of the big problems is that outside govt.s seem to have no leverage at all on the Maoist - they work cheap and seem to buy their weapons at market prices, and there isn't that much pressure that can be put on the King. India has the most influence but clearly just wants stability - India has lots of Maoist problems itself so it just wants to stop spillover. I think the UK and the US are still refusing to sell arms to army because of their human rights records - but I don't know if they can do much more. On a personal level, there is this rather limited advice:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2929&l=1#C9

In reply to TobyA:

I've read this thread carefully and Rhoderick Chalmers' piece, whose analysis is good... but TobyA - it's not helpful to quote bits out of context and talk about "imminent collapse" as if it's going to happen next week. Couple of points. Nepali society have been at it for years hiding away ill gotten gains, so no news there. And the comments about the army's reaction to the King either being deposed or fleeing are sheer conjecture. Who knows what would happen. Overall though, time is running out for the Government, political parties and Maoists to reach a peaceful settlement. As to whether or not you should visit Nepal. That's obviously a personal choice - I wouldn't hesitate.

In reply to Tom, UKC News Editor: Perhaps there should have been a question mark at the end of the title, but at least some people might have clicked on to the thread even just to see what it was about. What is happening in Nepal has had incredibly little coverage even on international media sources like World Service, let alone on the BBC domestically or in any of the British newspapers. It's a war that doesn't affect us and, because no one is jumping up and down shouting about "terrorists!!!", the west simply doesn't care about. I'm just saddened that out of many climbers who say they love Nepal, not all of them seem to love it enough to try and understand what is going on there. I went via your profile to the JG site and found one mention of the Maoists on it, in that they are delaying teams getting to Everest. Does it not seem even slightly ironic that the only mention of the war is in conjunction to delaying people paying thousand (tens of?) dollars to got up Everest? The fact that missing climbers in Nepal gets more news attention than a missing democracy I find also rather depressing. Did you see in the KEEP annual report, linked from the JG site, that they have had to close down the Pokhara office because their funding has collapsed and there are so few tourist going to that region as a result of the instability?

I'm not sure what the answer is as so many local businesses in Nepal rely on tourism, yet at the same time tourists' dollars are indirectly supporting an increasingly oppressive security apparatus - predominantly the military - as well as the Maoists. There are huge sections of the country though that don't benefit from tourism, and now are loosing all aid and central government inputs as well. It just strikes me that lots of people either don't care, or don't know enough to care.

There are all sorts of convuluted debates to be had about tourism and responsibility - particularly tourism to the poorest countries in the world like Nepal. Most people have some idea of what John Urry called "the Tourist gaze" - where grinding poverty becomes "charming rural simplicity". It just seems in Nepal we're gazing up at the mountains and not seeing whats around. The idea of the tourist bubble seems to have become solid in Nepal where strikes and loss of control of the roads means tourist fly from one safe spot to another, KTM to Lukla for example. Does it not remind anyone of how the US is relying increasingly on flights between say Basra and Baghdad because the don't control the roads?


Conjecture maybe, but not sheer conjecture. Analysis is conjecture after research.

On a personal level, there is this rather limited advice:


To be serious, are there any charities / foundations / organisations that on the correct side that visitors / climbers could support / fund?

Also, what is the likely "sherpa land" reaction to such a collapse?

In reply to TobyA:The problems in Nepal are not new,,they have being going on for a long long time,,there have been periods of stability and longer periods of instability,But since the Kings bloodline was murdered a few years back things have declined,,there is a lot of aid going to the poorest areas,,mainly in the form of education but also in medicines and agriculture and more sustainable crops,,non of this aid comes from the Nepalees Gov.
The treking ,climbing and rafting is a massive industry in Nepal,,,,Most trekkers are self supported and apart from paying visa fees to the Nep'Gov most of their money goes to the local population,,As does the rafting scene,But,,most of the main rafting companies are Nepalees owned and run(Ultimate Descents owned by a very good friend Megh Ale, Equator Expeditions, although owned by Jerry Moffat, is Nepalees run),,,But when it comes to climbing this is where the things get tricky,,as most base camp treks and major summits in the Nepalees Himalaya are run by western interests and their peak fees and permits etc go to the Nep' Gov,,so apart from the locals getting paid for sherpa work and the odd tea house on route the rest of the money goes elsewhere.
Nepalees have very varying attitudes to the western world and I can sum it up in to two destinct types of veiw..
1.Punha Sherpa comes from a long line of Sherpa,,his veiws of us are,,you waste so much,,you have too much,,you dont respect much,,you have horses and cats and dogs as pets!!( this is a very real veiw and Punha Sherpa is a live and well.name changed.
2.The Nepalees Business man, who comes from a higher caste knows how the west works, he tolerates the worst in us,,he tries to balance making money out of us, and still paying a fair wage to his Sherpa or Nepali employees,,he sees that he might not be able to have a horse as a pet( he neeeds it to work) but he is able to travel around Europe quite freely to promote his business in Nepal, and at the same time enjoy all the things we take for granted.
So, where does that leave those that pay to play in the greater ranges???Does the big western company that charges thousands to its clients put a small percentage in the price so that it can give a donation to the Maoists? year right,,so they can buy more ganga to smoke, or buy a few more guns,,nope..But making partnerships with local communities and giving them donations,or better still by sending much needed aid into Nepal to help where its own Gov' doesnt,, wouldnt this be a far better option, than the local poulation geting more and more bitter about all the rich westerners corroding their upland and mountain paths!,or leaving rubbish every where,,, how about helping them repair the flood damage after the monsoon season,,or taking big bags of Biros for the kids to do their school work,,,Never mind bloody worrying about wether your insurance covers cancelation due to civil uprising,,,, GIVE SOMETHING BACK TO A WONDERFUL COUNTRY
Namaste Beni

In reply to blurry:


It would, but many aid projects are being closed down because so much of the country is now beyond government control and it is too dangerous for aid agencies to work there.

I think that one of the big problems with tourism in Nepal is that it is relatively localised. Certain areas are very popular, whilst the rest of the country sees little benefit from it - the insurgency is just adding to that because huge swathes the country (the West, many parts of the lowlands etc.) are controlled by the Maoists.

In reply to frankierox:
don't worry. Nepal is still a safe destination for the travellers and in particular, the Everest region that you will be going to, you'll not even realize that there is any problem or threat at all to anyone.

In reply to Blurry:

5000nr in the Hinku Valley / From Jiri -> Lukla.

In reply to Ang Dorjey Sherpa:

Having just come out of the region I can only concur. With the statement above

In Kathmandu as with the valley region is perfectly safe and life sems to carry on with out any thought to wider issues. There is a miltary presence but it has not noticably been stepped up in recent weeks.

The Khumbu is heavily protected due to the miltary presence at Lukla. There was an attack on Lukla airport the night I when I stayed there, I presume by the Maoists, but essentially the Yaks are more of a threat to the tourist/trekker/climber than the Maoists.

So anyone heading up to Everest Base Camp or Ama Dalam will be fine, your in more objective danager of being mugged in London.

Mike you'll be fine- the Mountain looked in fanastic condition !

Worth noting is that in the other valleys though the Maoists are proving to be a bit of an issue. They charged us 5000 ruppees person. Which was steep.

Worst of all the took from every on our crew. The Porters had two days wages taken from them, the kitchen staff including cook boys all day 1000 ruppee taken off them. Which we strenuously objected to. We managed to reduce our payment to 4500 promising to give our porters and kitchen staff the 500 each. A deal which we honoured and of course added to as they were fanastic.

The Maoists though couldn't give a toss as to whether we cared for these guys or not he just wanted his 5000 per person, it was a stressful negoication.

We subsequently found out that the tea houses in the region (Iniku valley not Khumbu or Solukhumbu) also have to pay a monthly tax. Which the Maoists claim goes to the poor. This all happen at Tagnag by the way on the way to Mera and the Hinku Valley.

Inclusion, the Maoist we dealt with was wearing clean new cloths and looked very well groom incomparison with the rest of the villagers of Tagnag. It was more mob gangsterism than paying Robin Hood we felt.

I apprecaite the wider implications of Nepal being a badly ruled country and there is of course endemic corruption and bureacracy, this has result in large sections of the country needlessly suffering, when so much aid has been given by the international community.

The Government and the head of State have a huge amount to answer for but having personnally seen the insurgency, I don't for one minute believe that they are doing their Thomas Aquinas bit and acting in the Common interest either. Sadly it is the ordinary citzen that suffers the consequences.

In reply to blurry: i agree 100% with your last comment, it is the most wonderful place in the whole world, and if i get the chance to go back there i would grab it with both hands.

Let’s get this into perspective…

For many years I worked in London when the IRA were bombing regularly. Some tourists stayed away during the worst of times which did nothing good for the UK economy. At the time (and now) Americans have their own problems with gangs and Mafia, the French and Spanish suffer problems from internal extremists. Since 9-11, the threat of International Terrorism is daily news. For years Egypt has had problems with acts against tourists ....but none of these problems stop most people enjoying a fabulous break in these countries, and there are many other examples.

Generally I think the public understand that extremist activities do not represent the populist views and activities and like walking down an unlit alley in New York, London or Paris after dark in certain districts is not such a good idea, then caution needs to be used wherever one travels. If you don’t already have local knowledge then a good and well cared for (paid) local guide is one of the best insurances against being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

For poorer countries such as Himalayan Nepal that rely on tourism for much of their income the effects are far more devastating than the immediately obvious and highly localised carnage these anti-social aggressive morons inflict.

As well as wanting to have a life experience, World travel should be a two-way street where we put back something into the cultures that give us so much in return and staying away is one of the worst things we can do.

The forum is excellent and read by a good number of travelers so it’s good to see posts from Ang Dorjey Sherpa and people who have recently visited to help balance the views as not everyone who reads will post their thoughts.

In reply to DeanW:

I don't think that is into perspective though. The question isn't whether it is safe or not for tourists to go to Nepal (relatively speaking it is safe if you stay within limited areas), but whether tourism is a) masking the massive difficulties that the majority of people in Nepal are facing (on the basis of "well I had a lovely holiday there, so how bad can it be?") and b) could tourism actually be a factor in prolonging the conflict?

I don't wish to suggest some kind of conspiracy, but for those who's businesses rely on tourism (perhaps Ang Dorjey Sherpa, and Tom from Jagged Globe) of course they don't want to see tourists not going to Nepal - that is completely understandable.

But it is clear that both the Government and Maoists to some degree rely on tourist dollars to be able to afford to keep fighting, and whilst they keep fighting living standards are collapsing elsewhere in the country. We have to remember that there is a lot more to Nepal than Kathmandu and the mountain regions where we like to trek and climb. Huge sections of the country are under control of the Maoists. What little tourism there was before in these more remote areas is now completely finished because of security concerns. Various development projects have also been ended for the same reason.

There clearly needs to be either a peace process, or one side needs to win, before the situation can stabilise and people lives can be improved. The current stalemate is just prolonging the suffering of many Nepalis. What I want to know is whether tourism is helping the continuance of that stalemate, or a dynamic towards positive change. I don't know that it is the former, but I'm afraid I'm unwilling to only take the word of those who work within the industry that it is the latter.

That is the debate that should be taking place, but it seems to be one that nobody outside of Nepal is willing to, or cares enough to, engage in.

In reply to TobyA:

Could you drop the whisper that there is reputed to be oil there Toby? Only way other governments will get involved.

In reply to DeanW:
BTW, this might sound nice:


But in many cases it is simply not true. Burma is the case in point. The junta partly relies on tourists for hard currency that continues their massively oppressive reign over the Burmese people who have expressed their democratic will but not had it respected by their leaders. In turn they further abuse human rights to build and maintain the tourism infrastructure such as using slave labour to build roads.

Sometimes staying away is the right thing to do - but all cases should be judged on their merits.

In reply to sutty:


Ohh, you old cynic, you!

I think the real problem is that relatively responsible and important governments like India and the US (oi! you at the back stop smirking!) don't know which side should be supported. The government is an oppressive heriditary monarchy and the Maoists are, well, maoists. As bad as each other in different ways I suppose.

In reply to TobyA et al:
I would like to put this into some sort of perspective also.

The comparison with the IRA/ETA etc is absolute bollocks. The IRA (outside of the six counties) staged devastating (and not so devastating) campaigns of bombings that did cause fear and economic affects, as well as killing and maiming many innocents. But they did not control most of England, did not cause a near total breakdown of law and order. Tourists could know that they could visit 95% of britain perfectly safely, and that the only threat from the IRA was from occasional bombs, not random acts of violence and intimidation every single day. And as far as I know ETA used to give warning of most of its bombs (except when blowing up judges etc).

What is happening in wide tranches of Nepal is daily violence and the threat of violence, people are being uprooted from their homes by both sides, people are being murdered, raped, mutilated and robbed. luckily a few areas are keeping a hold on it, especially the Khumbu, good for them, I wish the same could be said for the whole country.

BTW how do people think the situation in Bali compares? On the one hand the Kuta targets were high profile and obvious, but compare what is happenning on the wider Indonesian front (of which I have far less knowledge) with separatists/militants and army/state fighting it out?

What sickens me most is that some people appear to be only concerned with the amount they pay to the Mao (who are based on Peru's Shining Path, remember them?), and whether THEY will be safe, they may also care about their porters, tea house owners and people they meet in the tourist ghettoes/trails that 95% of visitors stay in, but do they care about the wider effects of the conflict? the brutalisation of a generation, the destruction of development and education infrastructure, the reversal of the improvements made since the opening up of the country? The fact that the government was overthrown, that the king is a despot with a corrupt aristocracy that are bleeding the country dry, and an army that is out of control?

I have no issue if people visit Nepal as long as they have thought about what the situation, and what they're presence does, for good and ill. Educated and enlightened tourists who are concerned about they're impact should be encouraged. I have slightly a different view on Tibet, and as for Burma well that should be obvious.

On a serious personal safety issue, just because the Mao and government dont target tourists, doesnt mean you cant get hurt. I was caught up in a gun battle betweeen the police and Mao and was in quite some danger, although they werent actually targetting me! (state of marksmanship of most on both sides you are probably better off if you are being targetted), ifpeople say it is perfectly safe, I can look them in the eye and say no it is not, I nearly got killed!
There is also the general breakdown in law and order, Nepal always had bandits, now there is more theft and tent slashings/extortion by others as well as Mao/Army violence (see recent postings from trekkers on UKC).

I'm afraid I agree that you cant take the word of the tourism industry at face value, but I'd encourage people to think of going to Nepal, but only after researching the issues, thinking about it all, and realising that paying your 5000NR Mao passport desnt mean you are safe, just that you are safer than the people you will be living with -and whose country is it? How can this be right?
There is more to ethics than just bolts and aiding after all, sometimes i think we spend so long looking up at the hills that we dont see the world around us, but then thats also why we go into the hills.

Whatever happens in Nepal, it is likely to be in the direction of unpredictability, and unfortunately likely to get worse. Lets hope it doesnt.
chiz

In reply to TobyA: I got back from Nepal on Tues night - you may recall that I was party to a debate on here some weeks back about the morality of travel there.

Contrary to others' views it seemed to me that there was a tangible reduction in the tourist presence in Kat compared to last year and irnonically I also felt that the army presence was less prominent. However this is somewhat of a moot point. What was/is of interest to me is what is really happening in the country, what does the local population think of the current situation and what is the future likely to hold?

I have to say that after spending three weeks delicately discussing the issues with our Nepali guides, porters and friends I'm not sure that I've managed to gain any firm conclusions to my questions.

The people are concerned about the state of their country [they have been for many years] but they are not despairing of the situation. They all seem to have a very strong desire to see their country advance and they are very keen to show that they can run an adventure trip as well, if not better, than western outfits.

What I do know is just how wonderful the vast majority of the population is and what a beautiful, interesting country it is. I sincerely hope that Nepal is not on the brink of collapse for the peoples' sake alone notwithstanding my own desire to enjoy travel there.

In reply to michael lawrence: Can I ask which areas you went to Michael, and how you travelled between the different places?

In reply to TobyA:

I know nothing about the politics of this part of the world. How close to the Chinese are the Maoists? Is there any risk of Nepal being gobbled up by China in the same way that Tibet has been?

In reply to Trangia:

No - the chinese aren't interested all. They are far to busy becoming the world biggest economy to upset India and the west doing anything like that.

In reply to TobyA:

...although they do supply the Maoists with their weapons.

In reply to OopzISlippedAgain: What makes you say that Weeman? Was that what people are saying in Nepal? This is from the recent crisis group report on the Maoists http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3768&l=1 :

"The Maoists have also purchased arms, in particular from the black market in the neighbouring Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where there is a flourishing trade in illegal weapons. They had concentrated on buying detonators, explosives and bullets rather than guns but there is some evidence that they have also brought in AK-47 assault rifles, which some analysts suspect are from north east India.126 A large arms seizure in the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong in April 2004 caused various observers to speculate that Nepal's Maoists were the intended end-users.

The Maoists have skilled bomb-makers who initially devoted their efforts to refining various types of homemade explosives -- socket bombs, pipe bombs, pressure cooker bombs -- and gradually became more skilled in electronically detonated landmines. They have also used Indian army grenades, which may have been obtained on the black market. While their main source of weapons has tended to be the state security forces themselves, there are indications that their needs for fresh ammunition and explosives are met primarily from smuggling across the border with India. According to the Maoists, they have brought equipment from abroad in order to set up factories to produce high quality weaponry inside Nepal. Their general approach, however, has been to avoid unnecessary escalation in armaments.129 While they were only fighting with the police, they were happy to rely primarily on weapons looted from police posts. It is since engaging with the RNA that they have sought to increase their stock of semi-automatic and automatic weapons and resorted to foreign purchases. The basic personal weapons of most guerrillas are SLRs, .303 rifles and muskets, while political commissars, senior officers and leaders opt for Chinese pistols, mostly looted from the police. The government's published policy on Maoist surrender from 2003, which offers rewards for handing over weapons, indicates the range of armaments it believes the Maoists possess. One crucial difference that gives the Maoists an edge over the RNA in certain situations is that their weapons come from a variety of flexible sources. The
RNA's highly specialised hardware requirements make it
dependent on a few official sources and so vulnerable to
supply constraints."