UKH

Pretty scary winds out there, I think there's going to be a lot of damage in the morning. This feels much worse than Storm Arwen, at least where I am. I don't remember a winter in my lifetime where we had destructive storm after destructive storm like this. 

Google seems to suggest warmer seas lead to more humidity in the atmosphere which leads to more storms. Is this the new norm? 

I don't remember whether it was isolated, or one of a series - but do you recall the gale of early November [I think] 1996 in your part of the world. I was working on the rail bridge and staying in a rental caravan somewhere on the north shore of the Forth. During the night I swear that the van walls were oscillating in and out by several inches. In the morning we couldn't drive to site at South Queensferry due to virtual gridlock on the road bridge. There was work going on there as well at the time, and a portacabin had apparently been blown off the road deck into the sea. Not known at the time whether anybody was in it - but fortunately not, as it turned out. Sea state was equivalent to about Force 8 or 9 in open water - but the Forth isn't open water; in a westerly that's a pretty impressive state to achieve in such a short fetch. Apparently a school in Glasgow lost its roof.

I was working on a block in Edinburgh about ten years later. Pointed at some iffy cladding up high. "Been that way since the gale ten years back."

Gusts of 168mph at the top of the Glencoe ski area last night. Pretty wild.

https://twitter.com/glencoemountain/status/1749190163094213100?t=0eTMchZ1x-...

It's going to get increasingly chaotic.

I suspect that giving them names boosts our awareness of winter storms and so makes us think things have got stormier than they actually have. Would be interesting to see some actual statistics though. 

Storm Vladimir or whatever just sounds more dramatic than "a deep Atlantic low". Mind you, I do find it amusing when a vicious storm is called Kevin or Lucy.

From what I read the answer is probably 'yes' with climaate becoming increasing more extreme in all directions.

Dave

I think the news coverage certainly contribute. If I hadn't read about what is happening across the UK, I'm would only have experienced some above average wind and rain for a short period last night.

That said 2023-24 season seems to have hit the UK more than average, 2022-23 was unkind to southern Europe. Storm Daniel though counted as last season was in September 2023 and had a big impact.

This storm and the next one in a couple of days are coming from the normal direction; i.e. the west.

IIRC Arwen came from the other direction, which was one of the reasons it was so destructive, trees not being "prepared" for that.

Warmer seas means there's more energy in the water, so more energy gets transferred to the air, so more strong winds - which is why there are more storms. It also means warmer air which can "store" more water vapour so more rain gets dumped on us.

When we f**ked with the planet we really had no idea what we were doing and what the consequences would be. And now that we have some idea, we're still doing it (and I definitely include myself in that "we").

I'd be pretty suspicious of that single 168mph data point - with a mean 10min wind speed of only 58mph it is waaaaay outside the likely distribution for a max gust speed.  The gust data points of around 110-120mph either side of it are more believable (and still, pretty damn wild!)

Didn’t feel that bad here - nowhere near the intensity of Arwen - but the northern Powergrid outages map was lighting up all around us last night and most of it’s still out this morning.

Some more high winds in a couple of days.

There are still trees outside my windows and the roof is still on.

Landing in Manchester last night was quite exciting.  Captain had warned us that if conditions got any worse we would have to return to Paris.  We made it but a very fast approach and a big bump hitting the runway followed by a lot of reverse thrust and heavy braking.  Drive home along the A55 was almost as exicting.

The wheelie bin blew across the driveway last night. Fortunately no damage this time - last time that happened, it dented the car on the way past.

Might have to think of some way of securing it when it's empty.

We're in an El Nino so it's likely the key contributing factor resulting in these storms. I vaguely recall that UK El Nino winters are supposed to be calm towards the end of winter, so memory serving, and theory panning out, it should get calmer soon (but possibly colder).

But remember, in theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.

Yes. This year is also El Niño which has a whole bunch of teleconnections that shift the jet stream, which has spent this winter pumping storms at Northern Europe. That's going to get stronger too. 

So it's mostly down to El Niño and little to do with climate change? 🥴

You might want to share your knowledge with the Met Office, as they seem to be labouring under the apparent mispprehension that "El Niño is also thought to limit development of tropical storms in the North Atlantic".

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino

I can't answer this question, as I don't know if the El Nino (which naturally occurring cycle(ish) event) isn't perhaps triggered early by climate change.

That's not a great link for understanding. I'll keep all my sources to my answer with the Met office so you can't argue I've just hunted for pages that support an agenda.

First to point out, there's not much context to that sentence you quoted. To add a little meat to it, they are referring to tropical storms in the north Atlantic which occur from June to November

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/seasonal/no...

So probably irrelevant to this mid winter storms.

The reason not to just read a sentence and pretend to understand its meaning. Check this link out https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-...

"Little evidence exists linking storms and climate change"

I could read that to mean climate change has no impact on storms, and the Met office said so. I think that just means in terms of peak wind speed, and not frequency, but it's not clear to me, and this hopefully explains the trap you;ve fallen into here.

Here's another link form the met: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/seaso...

"El Niño increases the risk of a windy and mild start and cold end to winter."

That's it, is it? That makes it "the key contributing factor resulting in these storms"

You're going to have to go selectively hunting for anything to back up your rather bold assertion, because all you've presented so far says nothing whatsoever about violent January storms in January.

Do you not think that if if really was "the key contributing factor resulting in these storms", the Met Office might have thought to mention it even as a possibility on their explainer page?

Or might you perhaps have fallen for the tempation to exaggerate its effect (if there's even any effect to be exaggerated) so as to help you downplay the effect of climate change?

THE KEY contributing factor is quite a claim, needing quite some evidence.

I said "it's likely the key contributing factor". And I'm not a fortune teller, I can only make logical conclusions with the information available.

Climate change isn't going to have a rapid impact where one year it's not very stormy, and the next year storm after storm.

You need to look at more short term causes to drive short term change. The UK has a lot of variation in how stormy it is year on year. and whilst climate change will gradually increase storminess, if you get a particularly bad year, it's not going to be the key driver.

I'm sure there will be a review before long and we'll get more information soon. Until then you'll have to wait. Or panic, whichever you prefer.

Just remember, we know an El Nino can result in windier winters in the UK. The boring most obvious reason is usually the correct one.

Not sure if you would count ncas as selective or not (you shouldn't), but they've said: "the El Niño event ongoing in the tropical Pacific region is likely having a strong influence on this season’s storms. " But that was aimed at autumn storms. I can't find anything that goes in to any detail for the current batch.

https://ncas.ac.uk/uks-2023-24-storm-season-what-causes-storms-and-are-they...

Storm Jocelyn is just about to prance over the horizon. Shouldn't be so bad.

Why not?  Abrupt changes are quite possible.

In any case, if every storm has wind speeds even a few percent faster than before, that's a lot more damage as there is a speed squared relationship with force.  Implications for buildings, trees, wildlife etc.

power off since 2328 last night and due on by 1700 tomorrow

powered up router from car battery only to find internet down till just now (cabinet battery replaced by BT Openreach nearby) so it seems that the switch to voip will mean no comms no internet if things like that are common.

Medium wave/Long Wave working as is analogue landline but no heating or hot water except what we can boil on gas cooker.  Fortunately we light the house mainly by solar charged 12 and 24v batteries but the Freeview channels seem to be down

Mobile phone blackspot and I don't have a functional one anyway

Where are you? 

This would be true, but as discussed above, the Met office have said that there doesn't appear to be any impact in gust speed related to climate change.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-...

"The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. More comprehensive studies across the North Atlantic region have reached similar conclusions."

North Cumbria, not so far from "Crow Crag" as the crow flies

That's observations to date.  If you read a couple more sentences, we have

"UKCP18 projected an increase in near surface wind speeds over the UK for the second half of the 21st century for the winter season when more significant impacts of wind are experienced"

p19 here discusses the issue from the point of view of building

https://www.nhbc.co.uk/binaries/content/assets/nhbc/foundation/climate-chan...

The effects aren't well understood yet but the direction of travel is clear - more storms and probably somewhat higher gust speeds

A day off work today for me due to power cut. Not quite sure at this stage what that will mean for the rest of the week (outdoor centre, so kids couldn't arrive today. I don't know yet if they will cancel/ try to rebook a full week another time, or just arrive tomorrow or whenever they can book busses again). I get paid anyway, so fine by me whatever! I have power at my house.

The sea where I live is normally very very calm, we are very sheltered at the end of a sea loch, but last night the waves were spraying onto the road. That was a bit more exciting than normal, but the dog was very sure that it was not right and those waves needed a good telling off!!

But we're talking about 2024. 

Ironically this just popped up in my news feed. I guess because I googled a few things about storms. 

https://www.ft.com/content/f480cebc-3414-44bb-b85f-4c1a53fee784

“El Niño remains the major climate driver and is expected to be the primary influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern and associated January temperature and precipitation,” forecasters said. They don't specifically mention wind or storms, but it's hardly a stretch since we know El Nino causes more wind and more storms.

Naughty waves! xD

Engineering design standards in the offshore industry (e.g NORSOK) are assuming a 4% increase in extreme wind speed values over the next 50years.  Studies from the European Academy of Wind Energy produce similar numbers, and interesting geographical variations (some areas with decreasing extremes).  Year on year this trend would be unnoticeable, and individual storms like this are just noise in the records 

Sure, I wasn't saying this (not particularly violent) storm can be tied to climate change.  However, they is a developing effect, as you note that will be discernible over time - a 4% increase in speed is at least 8% (1.04^2) in  wind pressure, and probably more because of turbulence effects. 

For rainfall and again for design over the next 100 years the allowance is a 40% increase in average intensity for design storms.

I'm hoping there's some fat in that to keep designs on the safe side.

I replied to the wrong post of yours. Your statement about ‘abrupt changes are possible’ is hyperbole. Abrupt changes are very unlikely in our lifetimes, according to the sources I quoted.

In general I don't think that's correct.  For example, the location of the jet stream N-S could produce abrupt changes in weather (arguably already has).

Storm Isha has killed my owl box (fortunately no owls inside). Needs a more robust tree...

Anyone want to buy a 18.5kva generator, 230/400V, diesel.

£3000 cash, Collection NW area.

🙂