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/ Nothing but contempt for the Government

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The Lemming - on 04 Dec 2018

How serious is this for any government, and is it actually the first time ever that it has happened for a sitting government?

Post edited at 17:46
Pursued by a bear - on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Sorry, you're going to have to be more specific. Is what, precisely?

john arran - on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Three government defeats in a row this afternoon too. Things are looking up!

wercat on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to john arran:

No Wheels  on May Waggon, An A'hm still rollin' along ...

The New NickB - on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to Pursued by a bear:

Parliament has found the government in contempt over refusing to disclose their Brexit legal advice.

The Lemming - on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Its either a trap, or "He's behind you".  Either way its been a pantomime.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y0cAtNsN5Q

Blue Straggler - on 04 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Just stop please. Or if not, add a bit of substance. Spouting inane clickbait soundbites lost its charm before it started. Have some respect. Have some self-respect too

krikoman - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> Its either a trap, or "He's behind you".  Either way its been a pantomime.

Oh! no it hasn't

 

summo on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to krikoman:

> Oh! no it hasn't

Oh yes it is.

It would be easier to spot the baddies in parliament if they were in drag too. 

subtle on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to summo:

> Oh yes it is.

> It would be easier to spot the baddies in parliament if they were in drag too. 

Is May not in drag?

And JRM certainly dresses as a panto villain

With Boris dressed as the panto comedy buffoon

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to subtle:

Are our MPs actually taking all this seriously, or are they letting off steam from Brexit fatigue?

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

How soon before an General Election?

The Wild Scallion on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> How soon before an General Election?

Aren't you going to start another thread for that one ?

;-)

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Wild Scallion:

Might do.

Did not realise that it was only my pseudo that was not allowed to shoot the breeze.

I must have missed that memo, considering I thought this was going to be an interesting discussion about contempt of parliament, which is rather more serious about what is happening with Brexit in general.

The Wild Scallion on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> Might do.

> Did not realise that it was only my pseudo that was not allowed to shoot the breeze.

> I must have missed that memo, considering I thought this was going to be an interesting discussion about contempt of parliament, which is rather more serious about what is happening with Brexit in general.

Sorry couldn't help myself .

I'm sure someone else would have said it sooner or later

I'm just being mischievous.

 

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Was the PM lying or being selective with the legal advice that she was so determined NOT to release to parliament?

This is a shitstorm that could leave us in an indefinite worse off position after Brexit which we could never unilaterally leave once signed.  We'd be prisoners to the EU.  That's not what I voted for and I'm guessing the Leave Campaign did not or does not want either.

There is being selective with the truth and downright misdirecting and lying to the House and the public in general to force a deal through that NOBODY wants.

thomasadixon - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

What do you think was in the full advice that hadn't already been disclosed?

MonkeyPuzzle - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

If her aim us to destroy what little faith the public have left in their politicians she's doing a bang up job. First Cameron and now her willing to chuck us to the dogs to try and preserve their precious party unity. Tried to hide the legal advice as subtly as a child trying to pass notes in class.

Whatever political stripe you're of, we all deserve better than this.

timjones - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> How soon before an General Election?

My understanding is that it won't happen as it would require Conservative MPs to support a vote of confidence in their own government.

 

timjones - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> There is being selective with the truth and downright misdirecting and lying to the House and the public in general to force a deal through that NOBODY wants.

Are you sure that "NOBODY" wants it?

Harry Jarvis - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to thomasadixon:

A significant difference is that the legal advice is explicit in stating that the backstop mechanism would “endure indefinitely until a superseding agreement took its place”.

This differs from the summary advice previously given in which the words “unless and until” were used instead of 'indefinitely'. 

Thus, even in the event of future EU-UK trade talks breaking down with no resolution, the backstop arrangement would continue to be in place - in other words, there would be no complete Brexit - Brexit would not mean Brexit. 

The following analysis of what we now know that we didn't know before comes from the Independent:

"The legal advice published by the government today does not tell us much we didn't already know, but it spells out in black and white exactly why so many Brexiteers will vote against Theresa May's deal next week.

The advice, provided by attorney general Geoffrey Cox to the Cabinet and published after Parliament demanded its release, focuses on the Northern Ireland backstop - by far the most contentious part of the agreement.

In a passage that will be seized upon by Brexiteers, Cox said that, despite both the UK government and the EU insisting the backstop is designed to be temporary, it could "endure indefinitely" until an alternative is agreed.
This is because the UK does not have the right to withdraw from the mechanism unilaterally.

The withdrawal agreement, Cox said, "does not provide for a mechanism that is likely to enable the UK lawfully to exit the UK wide customs union without a subsequent agreement".

What's more, the attorney general suggested the EU could try to ditch the UK-wide customs union element of the backstop and keep only Northern Ireland under EU tariffs and regulations.

That is anathema to the DUP, which is opposing the proposed deal on the grounds that it could see Northern Ireland treated differently to the rest of the UK. If talks over a future agreement break down, Cox said, the EU could submit a request "that the GB elements of the customs union should fall away, leaving only NI in the EU customs territory". However, this would almost certainly be vetoed by the UK and would have to go to arbitration.

It's not hard to see why ministers tried so hard to stop the legal advice being published. It confirms many MPs worst fears about Ms May's deal and makes it even more likely the draft agreement will be voted down by the Commons next Tuesday."

thomasadixon - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

> This differs from the summary advice previously given in which the words “unless and until” were used instead of 'indefinitely'.

I see no difference between those two things, can you explain what the difference is to you?  We can of course agree to ending it with no deal at all, we just have to agree.  We wouldn't be able to leave unilaterally, and that's true for the EU as well.

> What's more, the attorney general suggested the EU could try to ditch the UK-wide customs union element of the backstop and keep only Northern Ireland under EU tariffs and regulations.

Well they can try, but there's no reason to believe that the arbitration committee will give the EU all they want and the UK nothing in return.

As far as I can see the things it confirms - that under the backstop NI will be treated differently to the rest of the UK and that we can't leave without the EU's permission - were already known.

 

Harry Jarvis - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to thomasadixon:

> I see no difference between those two things, can you explain what the difference is to you?  We can of course agree to ending it with no deal at all, we just have to agree.  We wouldn't be able to leave unilaterally, and that's true for the EU as well.

Granted, it's a subtle difference, but it potentially means that the UK remains tied to the EU whether it likes it or not with no time limit, and it's this which is unpalatable to some - that we do not have the sovereignty to take control of our own affairs over a timescale of our own determination. 

 

thomasadixon - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

> Granted, it's a subtle difference

What is this difference?

> but it potentially means that the UK remains tied to the EU whether it likes it or not with no time limit, and it's this which is unpalatable to some - that we do not have the sovereignty to take control of our own affairs over a timescale of our own determination. 

Right, but that was true before the advice was published.

 

Eric9Points - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> How soon before an General Election?


The contempt thing isn't much of a deal in itself unless there is something really damaging in the advice. If there is, we'll know by the time Newsnight finishes tonight.

A GE before 2022 is very unlikely. Neither the DUP nor the tories are going to risk voting themselves out of office so they won't lose the no confidence vote that Labour have tabled for immediately after the vote on Theresa's deal.

Harry Jarvis - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to thomasadixon:

I'm not defending it/attacking/attempting to rationalise it/take sides. I had hoped my explanation might help, but clearly not. If you want to find out more, there is plenty of information online for you look at. 

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to timjones:

> Are you sure that "NOBODY" wants it?


May does.

thomasadixon - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

I'm not defending or attacking it either, I just don't see any difference in meaning between the partial advice and the full advice.  You said was that it was subtle, which indicates that you think that there is a difference, but it really doesn't explain what that difference is...

Bob Hughes - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to thomasadixon:

Agree with you - there’s no difference.

Which makes it all the more curious that the government didn’t just go ahead and publish the full legal advice.

Pan Ron - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

> "The legal advice published by the government today does not tell us much we didn't already know, but it spells out in black and white exactly why so many Brexiteers will vote against Theresa May's deal next week.

Interesting wording.  Its no doubt true, but does also come across as the Indy trying to tell Brexiteers what to do...and not for Brexit's gain but for Remain' (though I don't expect many Brexiteers read the Indy these days).  There's a real fear that hard Brexiteers might start to soften and turn to May's deal.  Nothing like a nice bit of leading article wording to nudge them in the other direction ;-)

timjones - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

> May does.

And do you honestly think she is the only one?

I'm struggling to see how we can realistically expect to reach a significantly better compromise.

jkarran - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to timjones:

> I'm struggling to see how we can realistically expect to reach a significantly better compromise.

With different priorities, better public expectation management and a time machine.

Jk

DancingOnRock - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

The backstop only really needs to last until all the dinosaurs that remember the troubles fondly and would like to return to those times have moved on. From what I’ve been told the young Irish have no interest in that part of history and want to move on. 

Time is a great healer. 

The Lemming - on 05 Dec 2018
In reply to DancingOnRock:

You from the Island of Ireland by any chance?

timjones - on 06 Dec 2018
In reply to jkarran:

> With different priorities, better public expectation management and a time machine.

It would be easier to build a time machine than effectively manage the vast spread of expectations that the public hold ;)

DancingOnRock - on 06 Dec 2018
In reply to timjones:

A vast proportion of the public have a high level of entitlement and seem to think everything is unfair for them. They belive the government owes them everything and other people are to blame for all the problems they encounter. Most of them need a hard dose of reality. 

This is mainly because successive governments have promised them the earth and failed to deliver on their empty promises. 

Unfortuately any party that told the electorate the truth just wouldn’t get elected. 

Post edited at 13:44
teh_mark on 06 Dec 2018
In reply to The Lemming:

Do you ever offer your own opinion to the discussions you start, or do you just like asking provocative questions without making comment?

subtle on 06 Dec 2018
In reply to teh_mark:

> Do you ever offer your own opinion to the discussions you start, or do you just like asking provocative questions without making comment?

Well, whats your thought on it?


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