In reply to patrick_b:
> I think Best Actress is McDormand's to lose. Similarly it'll be surprising if Gary Oldman doesn't win Best Actor. Interesting that the acting catagories include Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis, and they aren't the front runners.
A pattern that started, I think, with Erin Brockovich and that only ended last year (depending on whether you feel Leo in The Revenant was playing the real Hugh Glass), was that at least one of Best Actor or Best Actress is someone playing a "real life" character (regardless of whether that real-life character is famous). I used to have some success predicting the winners based on this.
But recently a friend of mine pointed out a trend at least in Best Actress. They alternate between giving it to someone in an arty film and giving to someone in a more commercial film. Of course, definitions can be subjective and twisted around, but I looked back and she sort of had a point. Might be something to bear in mind. But then, is Three Billboards "small and arty", or big and commercial? Shape of Water? Lady Bird?
It's why we thought Lawrence might be in with a shout for "mother!"