In reply to TobyA:
Yep. The IRGC are the real power if push comes to shove. They are not daft but they are extremely paranoid which never makes for progressive governance. I do think for the regime to survive the best option would be for Khamenei to "retire due to old age" and replace him with Rouhani, then clear out the hardliners and reform the country's laws especially regarding women, religion and the rights of certain ethnic minorities. There are a lot of moderate to progressive voices in Iran who daren't speak up. I suspect the IRGC are waiting to see how far this goes, though they are active in Kurdish areas even more than usual.