UKH

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213?s=21

I have to confess this had flown a bit under the radar for me - I'd seen a bit of it here and there but not really seen the scale of the problem.

As the thread suggests, and as one of the regular posters on the old plotting threads (VSisascramble, I think?) pointed out, the risk if this hits mainland China is bad.

It’s a reflection of the relatively poor performance of the Chinese vaccine, rather than a justification of the libertarian fantasy of ignoring the virus and building population immunity / lots of dead people. If you look at NZ their Omicron wave is starkly different due to the high uptake of effective vaccines. But it doesn’t look good for main land China. 

I would have probably said low uptake first and poor performance second, from the look of the graphs, but either way it looks to have the potential to get pretty messy.

They urgently need to talk to Pfizer/Moderna and get jabbing.  Sinovac is even less effective than AZ.

If????

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=http://www.ft.com/content/659a5337-681b-4ef2-a9ac-d...

Having your vaccinated stats made up of hardly any old people is even less effective. 

https://nitter.net/PaulMainwood/status/1499330139057971200#m

(China vaccine coverage demographics believed to be more similar to HK than NZ)

Edit: This is all in the jbm thread. Which I suppose I should have read fully before posting. But in my defence Twitter is a pain in the arse. For anyone who agrees, read it much more easily here: https://nitter.net/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213?s=21

I suppose by "this" I meant the level of deaths, i.e. if the current heavy-handed containment measures create all the disruption without also succeeding at allowing some sort of softer landing on the mainland than HK seems to be managing.

But fair cop, I could have been more specific.

Yeah, fair. It's been a slow motion train crash unfolding in front of anyone who understands exponentials for the last few weeks, but unsurprisingly people's doom budgets are already spread a bit too thin for it to land heavily in the press.