Introduction

Janja Garnbret (SLO) Age: 22

The GOAT (Greatest Of All Time). Hailing from the small but disproportionately-good-at-climbing country of Slovenia, Janja Garnbret was surrounded by IFSC heros and heroines and a band of talented contemporaries from a young age, when she started climbing at 7 years old. Garnbret has set so many records and won so many events in competition climbing that she has few accolades left to achieve – the title of Olympic Champion being the obvious next step. And you’d be a fool to bet against her: Garnbret has won back-to-back World Championships in Boulder and Combined in 2018 and 2019, and also reclaimed the Lead title in 2019; she’s the only athlete to have won a clean-sweep of all six Bouldering World Cup events in a season (2019) – in which she also topped qualification and semi-final rounds, completing 74/78 of the boulders put in front of her – and has won eight World Cup overall titles (across Lead, Boulder and Combined). In 2019, she did the triple of Lead, Boulder and Combined at the IFSC World Championships in Hachioji, where she deservedly earned her #1 seed ranking for the Tokyo Games. In 2021, she broke another record, winning her eighth Boulder World Cup in a row; the most consecutive victories in IFSC World Cup events. 

Although she has won more World Cups and competed in more events in Lead, Garnbret’s rapid transition to Boulder events from 2017 onwards was staggering to watch. Garnbret’s gutsy, high-risk climbing style and broad movement repertoire has redefined modern dynamic climbing and attracted the interest of coaches, so much so that a move has been named after her – the “Janja”. German movement expert Udo Neumann commented: ‘I'm fascinated with how she keeps the mechanical costs of her movements low. She does this by making pendular movements, mixing and matching trajectories of her limbs to continually exchange potential and kinetic energy to optimally conserve energy. In addition, she typically has very little collisional energy losses. The passage between two movements happens smoothly without abrupt changes in the path of her body centre of mass.’ Like any champion, though, it’s not only her physical capabilities that land her on the top step of the podium; Garnbret is rarely rattled, and generally climbs with the mindset that she’s competing to be the best she can be, rather than battling against her competitors.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 1st Place

There was little doubt that Garnbret would reign supreme in Hachioji, especially after her domination of the Boulder circuit prior to the event. Her Lead shape was under question following some glitches in the first Lead World Cups in the summer, but by Hachioji she seemed to have recovered from the fatigue of blitzing the Boulder season and won an historic triple-Gold in Lead, Boulder and Combined.

Trivia

Garnbret’s "worst-ever" World Cup result in Lead or Boulder is a 13th place in Kranj, 2019. She has only ever missed a Boulder World Cup final (top 6) once, and two Lead finals.

UKC prediction

Garnbret’s results speak for themselves. It doesn’t take much convincing to put our money on her to become Sport Climbing’s first-ever Olympic Champion. Garnbret is a rare breed in that she is so consistent in two disciplines, making her a double-threat in Combined.

2021 update: Garnbret's Speed is improving too - make that 'triple-threat.'

Introduction

Akiyo Noguchi (JPN) Age: 32

With four World Cup overall titles and six 2nd place finishes, a strong case could be made for Akiyo Noguchi being the greatest competition boulderer of all time. The statistics don’t even tell the whole story - she’s claimed those 10 (TEN!) top-2 season finishes not by being stronger than virtually everyone else, but simply by being better. Noguchi’s movement is unique and her ability to understand and adapt to a Boulder is unsurpassed. She’s also got exceptional mobility and is able to execute moves that would be physically impossible for other climbers, even if they were able to figure them out. She’s not bad on a Lead wall either and has picked up nine Lead World Cup medals, and a bronze in the discipline at the 2005 (!) World Championships.

Noguchi had a long rivalry with Austrian legend Anna Stöhr, then went through a few years with Shauna Coxsey (GBR) as her main rival, and now finds herself trying to deal with the phenomenon that is Janja Garnbret (SLO). The faces around her have changed since she and Stöhr were battling it out for the 2008 overall season title, but Noguchi just keeps on going, seemingly ageless and rarely injured. Noguchi will retire post-Tokyo with 89 World Cup medals.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 2nd Place

One of Noguchi’s perceived “weak points” (we use the term lightly) was that she didn’t climb well on home soil, due to the extra pressure that came with being the local hero. Noguchi blew that theory out of the water in Hachioji, picking up silver in Boulder and then silver in Combined as well. Were it not for falling on the very last move of the Combined Lead route, it would have been her taking the top spot ahead of Janja Garnbret. Either way, Noguchi cruised, at the first time of asking, into an Olympic slot.

Trivia

Noguchi’s first experience of climbing came on a family holiday to Guam - an American island in the Western Pacific.

UKC prediction

The podium, but not the top step.

Introduction

Shauna Coxsey (GBR) Age: 28

Shauna Coxsey discovered climbing at the age of 4 while sitting on her dad’s knee watching a TV programme about Catherine Destivelle climbing in Mali. “I want to do that!” she proclaimed. A promising start in youth Lead events – before junior IFSC Boulder events existed – gave Coxsey valuable competition experience. Due to Britain’s strong heritage in Boulder World Cups and Coxsey’s preference and talent for the discipline, it was inevitable that she would transition to senior level by specialising in Boulder alone. Since her first World Cup win in Grindelwald in 2014, Coxsey has won the overall Boulder World Cup twice in both 2016 and 2017.

Although she has struggled with multiple injuries during her career, Coxsey has an enviable ability to come back stronger than before – which she proved once again in the 2019 Hachioji World Championships, when she returned following shoulder surgery and limited competition participation in 2018 to take 3^rd place and with it an Olympic spot. Coxsey’s mental fortitude and cool-headedness in high-stakes situations has often placed her a cut above the rest. With only three Lead World Cups under her belt but one final and two semi-final finishes, Coxsey has an aptitude for Lead helped by her youth competition experience, but lacks the track record or mileage of some of her fellow contenders.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships (3rd place)

Despite suffering from a cold in the days leading up to the event, Coxsey made Combined finals and guaranteed herself an Olympic quota place. In qualification, she won the Boulder round and entered finals in 1^st place. An unexpected 2^nd place in Speed – with a Personal Best of 9.141 seconds – in the final helped secure a Bronze medal overall.

Trivia

In recognition of her contributions to climbing, Coxsey was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) by Her Majesty the Queen in 2016.

UKC prediction

Given her ability to perform under pressure in Boulder, we expect Coxsey to rank highly in this round and make finals. Additionally, her mental strength is an important asset in Speed, which perhaps played to her advantage in Hachioji. Coxsey is currently recovering from some minor surgeries, but we don't expect these to hold her back - perhaps the one-year delay has been a blessing in this regard. Her relative "weaknesses" compared to others in Lead and Speed might not earn her a podium spot, but we estimate she’ll finish just outside in 4^th place. That said, never underestimate the return of Shauna Coxsey following injury!

2021 update: Coxsey's back pain has lingered and affected her preparation. Following the IFSC World Cup in Salt Lake City, Coxsey announced that she will retire post-Tokyo. A finals spot might be possible given her mental strength and experience on the big stage.

Introduction

Aleksandra Miroslaw (POL) Age: 27

Despite being relatively young, Miroslaw (née Rudzinska) is something of a veteran competitor - she first competed in a Speed World Cup in 2010. An early World Cup win in Chamonix in 2012 was followed by another the next year in Chongqing and it appeared that a glittering career beckoned. 

Miroslaw’s glittering career eventually arrived, but not at the time and in the manner that had been expected - podiums came in the three seasons following the Chongqing win, but a victory proved elusive and she all but retired in 2017. She decided to come back in 2018 but focus just on the biggest competitions; an unusual plan but clearly an effective one - she won the only World Cup she entered in 2018, was 1st and 2nd in the two she entered in 2019 and won back to back World Championships in those two years as well. That’s a success rate that even Janja would be proud of.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships (4^th place)

Miroslaw’s win in the Hachioji Speed World Championships netted her a place in the Combined competition. Once there she beat her only serious rival (Anouck Jaubert) to 1st place in the Speed element of the event, booked her slot in the final and punched her Olympic ticket.

Trivia

Miroslaw’s sister Malgorzata Rudzinska is also a strong climber - she picked up two top-10 finishes in Youth World Championships and has bouldered 8A+.

UKC prediction

With her ability to peak at the key moments we’re backing Miroslaw to come first in the Speed qualifying, thereby making the final. In the final she will be a strong favourite to win the Speed element but that’s unlikely to be enough to make it onto the podium. A mid-final finish looks the most likely outcome.

Introduction

Miho Nonaka (JPN) Age: 24

Tokyo-born Miho Nonaka discovered climbing aged 9 through her father and sister. A competitive rivalry with her older sibling pushed Nonaka to improve, before she moved to a private school in her teens to focus on her climbing career. She burst onto the IFSC scene in 2014 as one of the first of a new wave of young, strong Japanese female climbers following in Akiyo Noguchi’s foothold among the world’s best. A habitual finalist in the Boulder World Cups, Nonaka worked her way up the overall rankings from 3^rd in 2015, 2^nd in 2016 to 1^st place in 2018.

Recurrent shoulder injuries have prevented Nonaka from reaching her full potential in 2019 and previous seasons, though, as a climber whose powerful style has clearly taken a toll on her body. Nonaka is in many ways the antithesis of Noguchi, with a skillset representative of the more dynamic nature of modern bouldering in opposition to Noguchi’s static poise and finesse. When it comes to Combined, Nonaka has the edge over Noguchi in Speed climbing, with her staggeringly fast – for a non-Speed-specialist at least – PB of 8.20 seconds, making her one of the most versatile female athletes who will be competing in her home town of Tokyo. A Speed World Cup medal in Salt Lake and multiple finals in the three disciplines ahead of Tokyo stands her in very good stead indeed. 

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 5th place

Having sat out the first half of the Boulder World Cup season in 2019, Nonaka was somewhat of an unknown quantity when it came to the first Olympic selection event in Hachioji. Two 4^th places in Boulder World Cups, two semi-finals in Lead and a 10^th place in Speed events suggested that she might not be at her best, but her all-round capabilities were strong. Although she didn’t excel in any one discipline, a 5^th, 4^th and 4^th place in the Hachioji Combined Finals ultimately ranked her in 5^th – narrowly beating younger compatriot Ai Mori –  and secured her Tokyo qualification.

Trivia

Nonaka is one of the most high-profile climbers in Japan, boasting sponsorship deals with Beats by Dre, Tag Heuer and featuring in major advertising campaigns including billboards for Adidas, Red Bull and even Japanese yoghurt commercials. She’s also a fan of good food and fashion.

UKC prediction

We reckon the delay of one year to the Tokyo 2020 Games could play to Nonaka’s advantage in giving her time to recover from her shoulder injury and get back to the top of her game, putting her in 3^rd place, just behind her more seasoned compatriot Noguchi.

2021 update: Her results in the lead-up to the Games have shown consistency at a high level, and her SLC Speed medal was a breakthrough for Nonaka. Here's hoping her recent knee injury doesn't slow her down.

Introduction

Petra Klingler (SUI) Age: 29

A bona fide all rounder, Klingler has a World Championship win in Boulder and top 20 finishes in the two other disciplines. As if all that wasn’t enough she’s also picked up silverware (not to mention a few injuries…) in Ice Climbing World Cups too.

Klingler first appeared in a World Cup back in 2009, but the results took a while to come - her first finals appearance came in her 3rd season and she’d been at it for six years by the time she claimed a gold medal. Undoubtedly the greatest day in her career came in 2016 when she took a World Championship win ahead of a stacked field in the Boulder final. The image of her turning to the 12,000 strong crowd in Paris that day and smiling because she’d found a key toe-hook remains one of the best-known images in competition climbing history. Since then there have been no more World Cup or Championship podiums, but Klingler is rarely far from the business end of Boulder events and remains a regular and serious contender, capable of challenging the elite of the sport on her day.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 8^th place

Her all-round prowess made Klingler a clear favourite to claim one of the slots available in Hachioji and she duly obliged, taking 8th in Speed during the qualifying round, then 3rd in Boulder and 12th in Lead. That all added up to 4th in the qualifying round, and an Olympic slot. She ended up 8th in the Hachioji final, not that it mattered!

Trivia

Klingler studied Sports Science and Psychology and now works for Swiss Air in Bern when she’s not training and competing. She is a third-generation climber in a keen climbing family. 

UKC prediction

The final, but not the podium.

Introduction

Brooke Raboutou (USA) Age: 20

Colorado-born Brooke Raboutou undoubtedly has one of the best backstories of the Tokyo 2020 Games. Given her heritage as the daughter of competition climbing’s early superstars in the ‘80s and ‘90s - Robyn Erbesfield-Raboutou (4x World Cup champion, 1995 World Champion) and Didier Raboutou (3x World Cup champion) – Brooke Raboutou seemed destined to become a talented climber, and her participation in the sport’s Olympic debut is a perfect highpoint in the family narrative. Along with many of her Team USA contemporaries, Raboutou is a product of her parents’ ABC youth climbing program in Boulder, Colorado, arguably the most successful of its kind in producing successful rock and competition climbers, of which Brooke and her brother Shawn are the poster-kids.

Raboutou’s immersion in the world of climbing from a young age combined with her parents’ expertise – and a dose of good genes – has led to multiple World Youth Championships medals. As a relative rookie on the senior circuit, she is still figuring out how to give consistent performances in her main disciplines of Lead and Boulder (2021 edit: now she's up there with the best, with three World Cup medals ahead of Tokyo), but given her relative inexperience, she’s an up-and-coming all-rounder thanks to the majority of her competition experience being rooted in the Combined discipline. Raboutou’s movement is gymnastic, combining dynamic skills with tidy footwork and smooth transitions, which play to her advantage in Lead, her strongest discipline. In the Speed World Cups prior to Hachioji, Raboutou was cutting her PB down with each event she entered and in Hachioji it turned out to be her best result, which all bodes well for Tokyo in a field where Speed is generally the weakest link.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 9th place

A rocky World Cup season with erratic results – especially in Boulder – didn’t place Raboutou high up the list of names expected to break into the Olympics at the first opportunity. Her mother Robyn Erbesfield-Raboutou remarked in an interview following Hachioji that although things hadn’t gone her way earlier in the season, everything came together at the right moment for Raboutou after months of hard work: “She wasn’t performing her best throughout the season. She was pretty down on herself for not having the strong mental game that she’s used to having and I think that came to a head as this competition arose. I think that frustration really is what produced the results that got her into the Olympics.” Raboutou placed 6^th in Speed, 7^th in Lead and 10^th in Boulder in the Combined qualification, to finish one place outside of finals but still earn a quota place due to the excess of Japanese climbers.

Trivia

Raboutou grew up alongside fellow Team USA Olympian Colin Duffy in her parents’ ABC Kids climbing team.

UKC prediction

With another year of maturation, strength gains and competition experience, we expect Raboutou could finish in the top-15 if she pulls off another performance like the one she gave in Hachioji. She’ll be a stronger contender for the Boulder/Lead Combined event in 2024.

2021 update: Raboutou is in the form of her life, with two Boulder World Cup bronze medals and a Lead silver. We take our 2019 prediction back - Raboutou could make finals in Tokyo, perhaps even the podium.

Introduction

Jessica Pilz (AUT) Age: 24

Born in the Amstetten region of Austria, just to the south-east of the country’s third-largest city, Linz, Pilz has been successful from the first day of her competition career. She won the Lead title in three successive Youth World Championships between 2011 and 2013 and also won the European Youth Boulder Championship in 2014. That same year she picked up her first ever World Cup medal.

Pilz is a seemingly quiet character and generally keeps herself to herself at competitions, but those who know her best all concur that underneath a shy exterior lurks a forceful will. Pilz is determined, focused, strong and talented, which is a good combination in anyone’s book. She put all of those attributes to good use at the 2018 World Championships when she beat Janja Garnbret, Jain Kim and all to claim the gold medal. On her day she can beat anyone and is a consistent finalist/medallist in both Boulder and Lead.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 10^th place

Pilz booked her ticket to Tokyo at the first time of asking. She didn’t make the final in Hachioji but the number of Japanese athletes ahead of her meant that she got her Olympic slot by finishing 10th.

Trivia

Pilz’s hometown (Haag) is the geographical centre of Europe. Don’t ask us how that’s measured or what it means exactly, but it sounds good!

UKC prediction

Pilz is capable of making the final, but we suspect she’ll just miss out and end up in the upper part of the midfield.

2021 update: a finger injury picked up in SLC could affect Pilz's chances in Tokyo, despite her apparent good form in the first Boulder events.

Introduction

Anouck Jaubert (FRA) Age: 27

Anouck Jaubert is a product of the French Climbing Team's high-performance Speed set-up in and around Grenoble, France. Jaubert picked up where her compatriot and IFSC Speed World Cup winner Esther Bruckner left off. Active on the senior circuit since 2011 following a promising youth career, Jaubert's breakthrough year came in 2014 when she earned her first podium place and ultimately displayed astonishing consistency by winning a medal in seven out of the eight Speed World Cup rounds, including her first win in Arco, to finish 3rd overall. In 2017, she won five out of eight events to take her first overall World Cup title and she successfuly defended her crown in 2018. Over the years, Jaubert has enjoyed many close-fought duels against fellow Olympic-qualified athlete Iuliia Kaplina (RUS), with whom she has interchanged championship titles, World Records and World Cup wins. Jaubert's consistency is reflected in her six-year run of podium placings in the overall Speed World Cup ranking from 2014-2019. 

However, Jaubert is still seeking an elusive World Championship win, having placed 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2019. When the Olympic Combined format was first announced, the French team looked to Jaubert as an obvious candidate for selection, especially given her relative competence in Boulder. It was never going to be easy, however, given the depth of the French women's team. Julia Chanouride and Fanny Gibert would quite literally be giving Jaubert a run for her money in their respective dominant disciplines. 

Qualification route

Tripartite Commission Place - Hachioji

Jaubert came eye-wateringly close to selection in Hachioji, finishing 11th and just one place out of contention. Being one position ahead of teammate Julia Chanourdie, and far ahead of Fanny Gibert, Jaubert placed considerable pressure on her compatriots ahead of Toulouse, and put herself in an especially strong position given the uncertainty surrounding Tripartite Commission allocations.

In Toulouse, the tables turned and Chanourdie excelled, clinching the first French women's spot, with Gibert finishing as unlucky number seven and just one place out of the six eligible spots. Unfortunately for Gibert, her narrow miss came at the wrong place at the wrong time, and when the 2020 IFSC European Championships in Moscow were postponed but the Tripartite Commision's goalposts remained in place, it was Jaubert who was allocated the unused quota place due to her performance in Hachioji, which was prioritised over Toulouse in the selection hierarchy. Receiving a phone call during lockdown to say that she'd earned an Olympic spot must have been rather surreal and perhaps anti-climactic for Jaubert, but she'd done the work when it mattered and completed the four-strong French contingent for Tokyo.

Trivia

Jaubert practised dance, ice skating, judo and gymnastics before settling on climbing. Alongside her competition career, Jaubert is training to be a physiotherapist. 

UKC prediction

Given Jaubert's need to excel in Speed in an especially stacked women's Speed specialist field, we're not sure she will make finals given Aleksandra Miroslaw's consistency in big events and YiLing Song's potential next-generation edge, but a good Speed result and a higher finish in Boulder and Lead than her Speed rivals could place her in the top 15.

Introduction

Chaehyun Seo (KOR) Age: 17

Nobody expected 15-year-old Chaehyun Seo to unsettle the GOAT, Janja Garnbret, in her debut senior IFSC season in 2019 - especially not after Garnbret's clean sweep of the Boulder circuit. In Villars, Seo made herself known by finishing in 2nd place, just one move behind Janja most of the way. One week later in Chamonix, however, she demonstrated that Villars wasn't a one-off and put the pressure on Garnbret by matching her in qualification. The pressure seemed to get to Garnbret, with a shock 9th place in semis knocking her out of the finals. Seo won the round and set a precedent for the rest of the season: three more wins and a 3rd place, resulting in 1st place overall with four Golds, a Silver and a Bronze in each of the six rounds. 

Seo was born into a climbing family. Her father owns a climbing gym in Seoul and is a keen ice climber. In 2018 and 2019, Seo was selected for the national ice climbing team, ranking 4th in Korea. She has also climbed 9a on rock, with an ascent of Bad Girls Club in Rifle, USA. 

Qualification route

Asian Continental Quota Place (IFSC World Championships Hachioji 2019) 

Seo didn't make the Olympic cut in Hachioji, but was the next-highest-ranked eligible Asian climber. She didn't compete in Toulouse, meaning that her last chance would be at the IFSC Asia Continental Championship in 2020. The uncertainty surrounding the fate of the postponed event in Chongqing after China announced it wouldn't be hosting any international sporting events prompted some people to believe that the event was cancelled, which meant that Seo would earn a quota place on countback to Hachioji as the highest-placed eligible Asian competitor. Seo hesitantly revealed that she would be going to Olympics on social media, but the IFSC eventually announced a rescheduling of the event to Xiamen in December, which never happened. After a prolonged state of limbo, Seo was ultimately awarded the Asian ticket alongside compatriot Jongwon Chon. 

Trivia

Seo is nicknamed "the second Jain Kim" due to her performances in Lead and similar climbing style to her older, 61-IFSC medal-winning compatriot. Kim appears to have taken the young star under her wing, as the pair are frequently photographed together and interact with one another on social media. 

UKC prediction

Given Seo's competence in Lead, a '1' beside her name in that round could put her in a strong position, especially as there are relatively few Lead specialists in the line-up. Although Seo won the Asian Boulder Championships in 2019, some key athletes were missing and we haven't seen enough of her in Combined events or indeed any Boulder events in the past 18 months or so. This disruption to the calendar and the resulting lack of competition experience due to her young age is a major disadvantage for Seo. If Lead and Boulder go to plan she could make finals, but realistically a top-10 or 10th-15th place might be more likely. 

Introduction

Julia Chanourdie (FRA) Age: 25

Born in France's mountainous Haute-Savoie department, Julia Chanourdie discovered climbing under the tutelage of her father and eventual coach, Eric Chanourdie. Chanourdie's parents owned a climbing gym and given the family's proximity to quality crags, it wasn't long before Chanourdie and her younger sister were following their father up rock faces and entering competitions. As a youth competitor, Chanourdie was a regular podiumist in European Youth Cups and World Youth Championships. Upon progressing to senior level, Chanourdie brought power and dynamic agility to the wall - qualities which set her apart from her French female predecessors, who were often pigeonholed as technique and endurance-focused climbers.

Perhaps surprisingly, Chanourdie has only one IFSC World Cup medal to her name, but she has made numerous World Cup finals in Lead and as of 2019, a couple in Boulder - hence why she has become such a notable athlete on the circuit. In 2019, Chanourdie made it very clear what her intentions were regarding Olympic qualification. She made semi-finals in Boulder for the first time in Meiringen despite limited experience in Boulder, and progressively improved her performance with each passing event throughout the season, culminating in a 4th place in Munich, where her potential for an Olympic spot became very apparent. While her 2019 Lead results noticeably dropped compared to her consistent 2016 and 2017 seasons, Chanourdie's Speed times were diminishing with each World Cup round - the product of time spent with France's highly competent Speed coaches and athletes. It became increasingly obvious that "work your weaknesses" was a principle that Chanourdie had been living and training by, and it paid off. 

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier event: 2nd Place

With Anouck Jaubert piling on the pressure from her one-place-superior performance in Hachioji (11th), the French female contest for two spots by three women (Chanourdie, Jaubert, Gibert) made for one of the most exciting storylines of Olympic qualification. On home turf, Chanourdie shone in Toulouse and qualified for the final, thereby securing her spot and eventually finishing 2nd with 3rd, 5th and 2nd places across Speed, Boulder and Lead. 

Trivia

Chanourdie is one of the world's most accomplished rock climbers, being one of only five women to have redpointed 9a+ alongside fellow Olympian Laura Rogora.

UKC prediction

Given Chanourdie's meteoric rise in 2019 and her proven ability to work on her weaknesses and become an all-rounder, we think she is capable of making the final and finishing around 6th place.

Introduction

Mia Krampl (SLO) Age: 21

Despite only just having turned 20, Krampl has been climbing for 14 years and her experience has brought her some major results relatively early in her career. In 2015 she picked up a European Youth Championship Lead win and she followed that up with 2nd in the Youth World Championships (to Janja Garnbret, no less) the year after. Another year later she made her first Lead World Cup final and then in 2018 three more finals followed, along with an appearance in the World Championship finals.

That’s all very impressive, but 2019 really was when Krampl’s star began to shine - she made the podium at the Munich World Cup in Boulder despite picking up a nasty knee injury on the first boulder, and then came second (to Janja, again) in the World Championships. To round off an epic season, she then qualified for the Olympics after a battle royale in the final with her compatriot Lucka Rakovec at the Toulouse Olympic Combined Qualifier event.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 3rd place

Because Japan took climbers to Toulouse who couldn’t claim an Olympic slot, everyone in both the men’s and women’s finals knew that they’d already qualified for the Olympics….apart from best friends Krampl and Lucka Rakovec. Only one of them could join Janja Garnbret in Tokyo and the battle between them was unimaginably tense, with Krampl coming out on top by one move on the Lead wall. Suffice to say, it was pretty emotional - go and watch the replay to see what we mean!

Trivia

Krampl was born in Kranj - a town which hosted an IFSC World Cup for over two decades and is one of the most famous climbing competition venues in the world. Her only World Cup medal to date - a bronze from the Munich Boulder World Cup in 2019 - was famously earned despite carrying a debilitating knee injury and by using a figure-4 move to overcome her handicap. Krampl and Rakovec's friendship and fight for the remaining Slovenian Olympic slot was profiled in a substantial New York Times feature following the Toulouse event.

UKC prediction

Krampl could pull a big result out of the bag, but we think a mid-table finish is her likeliest result.

Introduction

Iuliia Kaplina (RUS) Age: 28

Tyumen-born Iuliia Kaplina is one of a long line of Russian Speed climbing athletes to have made their mark on the sport. She is a nine-time World Record holder, and one of the best and most decorated Speed climbers in history, with 31 World Cup medals and a remarkable six-year run of being on the overall World Cup podium from 2013-2018.

Kaplina is the very definition of a Speed specialist, since she has only competed in four World Cups across both Lead and Boulder to date, all of which were in 2019. Kaplina did the bare minimum to qualify for Toulouse (two World Cup events in each discipline) and as such lacks the breadth of other competitors, but her Speed queen status earned her a ticket and she is one of four Speed specialists who will be vying for the top of the Speed ranking in Tokyo. In Combined, Speed really can be anyone's game, and given her track record and depth of experience, Kaplina could clinch a win - and she'll really need it given her lack of experience in the other disciplines.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier event: 6th Place

Having not made the Combined cut in Hachioji, Toulouse was Kaplina's first big chance at qualification. Although Speed specialist Aleksandra Miroslaw (POL) had already qualified, there nonetheless remained four other Speed speclist women in the running in Toulouse. However, a win in the Speed round of the qualifying competition secured Kaplina a place in the final and with it an Olympic ticket. 

Trivia

Due to the Russian doping scandal, Kaplina will have to compete under the neutral Olympic flag. Kaplina's hometown of Tyumen in Western Siberia is a Speed climbing hub and is home to many former and current Russian Speed stars hailing from the town's climbing school, who train under respected national team head Speed coach Sergei Sergeev.

UKC prediction

Competition will be fierce among the Speed specialist women in Tokyo, and Kaplina will have to place in the top one or two in Speed to guarantee a ranking in the top half or three-quarters of the field given her weaknesses in Boulder and Lead. That said, with an extra year to train, Kaplina could potentially gain some ground in these disciplines and outrank her competition. We reckon a 15th-20th place finish, or top 15 if Speed qualification goes her way.

Introduction

Kyra Condie (USA) Age: 24

Born and raised in Shoreview, Minnesota, Condie had USA Climbing legend (and fellow Minnesotan) Alex Johnson to look up to as she began her journey towards the top of the climbing world. Condie hasn’t yet entered the hallowed ranks of World Cup winners like her early mentor did, but with a World Cup final appearance and a PanAmerican Championship gold medal already secured, as well as Olympic qualification, she’s already making her mark at the business end of the climbing world.

Known for her aggressive, powerful climbing style, Condie is always a fun competitor to watch. That style might have come naturally to her but it was almost forced upon her when she had spinal fusion surgery in 2010 after being diagnosed with severe idiopathic scoliosis. After seeking several opinions from several doctors, she eventually found one who gave her the answer she wanted; that she’d still be able to climb at the highest level. In November 2019, Condie was able to complete the circle when she went back to him and told him that she was an Olympian.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 7^th place

A true all rounder, Condie always looked like one of Team USA’s best bets for Olympic qualification. She didn’t quite make it into the Combined World Championships 2019, and Brooke Raboutou then took one of the USA’s two female Olympic slots there, only adding pressure for Condie to qualify in Toulouse. The pressure didn’t show because she looked on form through the Toulouse event and booked her Olympic ticket with room to spare.

Trivia

Condie and her best friend (Canadian climber Allison Vest) have matching tattoos on their wrists.

UKC prediction

Having competed in all 3 disciplines for most of her career, Condie has a better all round skill set than many of her Olympic rivals. We think she’ll make the Olympic final, but not the podium.

Introduction

Laura Rogora (ITA) Age: 20

Rome-born Laura Rogora had already made a name for herself outside of the IFSC circuit with her impressive rock ascents from a young age. She burst onto the IFSC senior World Cup circuit in 2017, making finals in her first ever World Cup in Villars and finishing 6th. Rogora's determined and slightly erratic climbing style is exciting watch, and her endurance makes her a serious contender in Lead, so long as her small stature is not a limitation on more powerful moves.

Her potential for stand-out performances was once again proved in the Vail Boulder World Cup in 2019, where she finished just outside of finals in 8th place. A few months later, she won three out of four possible gold medals at the IFSC World Youth Championships, coming first in Lead, Boulder and Combined, and placed 2nd in the IFSC European Lead Championships in Edinburgh later that year. With a touch more growth and some extra power in her climbing, Rogora could be making World Cup and Championship podiums in the near future. 

2021 update: With a World Cup win in Briançon 2020 under her belt and a 2nd place in Villars 2021, Rogora proved us correct. She's looking on form ahead of the Games. 

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier event: 8th Place

Rogora didn't make the Combined qualification event in Hachioji, but she qualified for Toulouse given her stronger performances in the 2019 World Cup events. Upon qualifying for the final in Toulouse, Rogora had already earned her ticket to Tokyo given the presence of ineligible Japanese athletes in the final. An 8th place finish was the product of midfield performances across the board, with a 5th, 4th and 5th place in Speed, Boulder and Lead respectively. This was perhaps expected for Rogora given her young age, but she'd done enough to achieve her main objective.

Trivia

Rogora started climbing at the age of 4 and climbs with her older sister Chiara, who has also represented Italy in competitions and made international podiums at youth level. As of July 2020, Laura Rogora has redpointed thirteen routes of 8c+/9a or harder - more than any other female climber - and is one of only two women globally to have ticked 9b, which also makes her the most accomplished rock climber out of the Tokyo-qualified women. 

UKC prediction

As one of the younger athletes alongside Brooke Raboutou and YiLing Song, we think Rogora will be a bigger proposition in Paris 2024 given her weakness in Speed and lack of power at times in Boulder. A strong Lead result is possible for Rogora, since she has shown more consistency at senior level in 2021. We think she'll finish in the top 15 in Tokyo, but be a more serious contender in Paris 2024.

Introduction

YiLing Song (CHN) Age: 20

Beijing-born YiLing Song has been something of a sensation in the Speed climbing world over the past few seasons, but there was little to indicate from her early results what she would eventually do. Sure, there was the win in the Youth A Asian Speed Championships in 2017, but not everyone who wins at that level of event goes on to become a World Record holder and World Cup season champion like Song has.

2018 was a decent year for the Chinese climber but 2019 was scarcely believable - she won three World Cups on the way to becoming season champion, broke the World record and then clinched Olympic qualification in Toulouse. With Iuliia Kaplina, Aleksandra Miroslaw and Anouck Jaubert also qualified for Tokyo, Song will not have the Speed part of the Olympic event all to herself by any means, but she can beat any of them on her day and her personal best time is the lowest of any of the qualified Olympians.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 9^th place

The Chinese team have invested heavily in their coaches and facilities, so there was pressure on everyone in the organisation (not just the climbers) to deliver some Olympians. Luckily they were armed with Song, who finished 9th in Toulouse - not enough to make the final but enough for an Olympic slot because there were so many Japanese climbers ahead of her.

Trivia

Song held the women’s Speed World record (at 7.101 seconds) for 6 months until it was surpassed in Xiamen in 2019 by Aries Susanti Rahayu (IDN).

UKC prediction

Given that she is only world class in one discipline, and relatively inexperienced, Song will need to win the Speed part of the qualifying round to stand a chance of making the final. We don’t think she’ll manage it and predict a finish in the bottom half of the results.

Introduction

Alannah Yip (CAN) Age: 27

North Vancouver-based Alannah Yip has been a circuit regular since her senior debut in 2011, with a full six-year apprenticeship in international junior events prior to this. Although she's never made the podium in an IFSC World Cup, Yip has considerable competition experience, having done four more or less full Lead, Speed and Boulder seasons since 2016. During a four-year competition hiatus while studying Mechanical Engineering, Yip spent some time in Switzerland as part of a study abroad scheme, where she trained with Swiss coach Urs Stöcker and some strong Swiss women including Petra Klingler. Yip's passion for competing was reawakened, and she realised the level of training required to keep up with the best competitors. 

Yip has commented in the past that she has never been the best competitor, either as a youth or at senior level internationally, but she always turns up and has been consistent and gradually improving across all three disciplines, including one Boulder World Cup final finish in Chongqing in 2017. With her compatriot Sean McColl providing inspiration from a young age, Yip's work ethic has taken her very far indeed, and at the 2019 PanAmerican Championships she proved herself capable of winning international events under considerable pressure. 

Qualification route

2019 PanAmerican Championships: 1st Place

Yip's journey to Olympic qualification was long and heartbreaking at times. Hachioji proved disappointing for Yip, where she finished 18th and far out of the top 8 places. In Toulouse, she inched closer with a 14th place, being just four places out of Olympic selection. By the arrival of the PanAmerican Championships in Los Angeles, Yip was a clear favourite and the pressure appeared to knock her off course in the initial stages of the competition.  

On the qualifying day, Yip appeared off-form and only just made it through to the final in 6th place, where she would face stiff competition from South American athletes. After a 5th place in the Speed finals, Yip showed her Boulder prowess with a win, and then it all came down to the Lead route. Yip had to beat Alejandra Contreras of Chile to win and secure herself the Olympic ticket. High tension ensued, but a valiant fight by Yip to a new highpoint and an emotional response to her win alongside commendable sportswomanship from her fellow competitors made for one of the most memorable IFSC moments of all time.

Trivia

Yip was the first ever Canadian woman to make World Cup finals when she qualified in Chongqing, China, in 2017. Yip and Canadian teammate and Olympic-qualified athlete Sean McColl are childhood family friends. 

UKC prediction

While Yip isn't as dominant in any one discipline as some of her fellow competitors, her work ethic and all-round skills could earn her a top 10 or top 15 finish.

Introduction

Oceana Mackenzie (AUS) Age: 18

Australian Olympic hopeful Oceana Mackenzie is a truly international climber whose origins could give several countries bragging rights come Tokyo. Born in Germany to New Zealand parents, who later settled in Melbourne, Australia, the young star from the antipodes showed enormous promise in climbing from an early age.
With Mackenzie shining as she came into youth competition, the decision was made by the Australian climbing federation to move her into the adult events before she was eligible under the rules. This, it was felt, would assist in raising her level by exposing her to a broader field of elite competitors. It was a decision which clearly paid dividends with Mackenzie coming into her own in domestic competition before she was technically allowed to hold the titles she was winning. Strong performances in her first international outings also showed that this unusual approach had benefited her evolution as a climber.

After strong showings in her first season of IFSC senior competition with a semi-final appearance in her first World Cup in Hachioji, Japan in 2018, Mackenzie really announced her arrival onto the world stage with a final’s appearance at the first Boulder World Cup of 2019 in Meiringen, Switzerland.

Qualification route

IFSC Oceania Continental Championships: 1st Place

After a disappointing result in the Combined World Championships in Hachioji, where although the top placed climber from Oceania, Mackenzie failed to secure an Olympic ticket. The young star turned her attention to the Oceania Continental Championships. Due to the impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 season, Mackenzie had only competed in a single international event, Dock Masters in The Netherlands, before having to return to Australia. After enduring several prolonged lockdowns in Melbourne, December brought the rescheduled qualifying event to Sydney and Mackenzie showed in no uncertain terms that she had put the extended lead-up to the competition to good use.

In a stunningly dominant display, Mackenzie won every Speed race, flashed every Boulder and onsighted the Lead routes in both qualifying and finals. By having a perfect competition (no falls, no losses) Mackenzie qualified with a score of 1.

Trivia

Mackenzie is the youngest of six siblings, all sisters. She follows a vegan lifestyle.

UKC prediction

The delay of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics has probably been beneficial to Mackenzie. As one of the younger qualifiers, it has given her another year to prepare and work on any weaknesses in the lead up to the Olympics. The lack of international competition does however make it more difficult to gauge her progression against her rivals, which adds a layer of complexity to the prediction. We believe Oceania has the potential to make finals due to her aptitude in all disciplines and expect her to place in the lower section of the finalists. UKC prediction: 7^th.

Introduction

Viktoriia Meshkova (RUS) Age: 20

If you’d never heard of Russia’s Viktoriia Meshkova before December's European Championships, that would come as no surprise. Indeed, her only real international performance of note was a 4^th place finish in Lead at a World Youth Championships, again in her home country of Russia, and a 2^nd place in the European Youth Bouldering Championships that same year.

If, however, as a fan of the sport you’ve been following athlete development by watching domestic competitions, you will have seen Viktoriia steadily improving in Russian events.



 

Qualification route

IFSC European Continental Championships: 1st place

After an interrupted build up to the European Continental Championships, Viktoriia found herself in lockdown with only a training plan from Russian legend Dmitrii Sharafutdinov to keep her company. That training program clearly paid dividends as Viktoriia stepped into the arena in Moscow in the form of her life. In the space of a week Viktoriia became first European Bouldering champion, then Lead Champion, and lastly but most importantly the European Combined Champion, securing her an Olympic berth.
 

Trivia

When we said above that Viktoriia had been isolated in the training phase leading up to the European Championships, we meant so in the most literal sense. Five weeks before the event Viktoriia had tested positive for COVID-19 and she was forced to self-isolate in her apartment.

UKC prediction

We believe the lack of experience in finals climbing will have an impact on Viktoriia’s performance in Tokyo. Although she has shown excellent form in Moscow and performed fantastically under the tutelage of Dmitrii Sharafutdinov, we have yet to see a strong performance from her at a truly world class senior event.
We expect Viktoriia to miss the cut to finals and settle into the placings just outside the top ten. Our prediction is 13^th.

Introduction

Erin Sterkenburg (RSA) Age: 18

Erin Sterkenburg lives in Durban, South Africa. She started climbing in 2017 thanks to her school, which offered it as a physical education activity. Through regular sessions in the school climbing club, Erin fell in love with the sport and rapidly rose to the top of South Africa's growing climbing scene. Sterkenburg is a multiple national champion, having won the women's Under 17 category in the South African Lead and Boulder Event and the South Africa Open Combined Event, both in 2019.

Qualification route

IFSC Africa Continental Championships

After an uncertain year of postponements to the all-important African Championship in Cape Town, Sterkenburg kept a cool head and dominated the women's field, topping each discipline in both the qualifying and final rounds to become a worthy winner and earn herself a well-deserved Olympic Quota place. She told UKC at the time: 'The Africa Cup was such an amazing event to compete in. Although it was stressful, I had such fun climbing the routes and boulders and competing with all the other ladies. I am so excited to be going to Tokyo next year, it hasn't fully sunk in yet.'

'Years from now, people will look back on the 2020 IFSC African Championships in Cape Town as a fundamental milestone in the development and growth of Sport Climbing in Africa,' the IFSC commented ahead of the event.

Trivia

Sterkenburg completes most of her Lead training outside on rock, as the only indoor facility near her is a bouldering gym. 'I really love doing some of my training outdoors, as it teaches me so much about the sport, and brings a different and fun aspect to training,' she told UKC.

UKC prediction

Given her youth and lack of experience on the international circuit, Sterkenburg will likely view her participation in Sport Climbing's debut Olympics as a major opportunity to develop her skills as an athlete. We expect a 15-20th place finish, but with a spot on the world's biggest sporting stage as a teen, this is just the start of Sterkenburg's competitive career and a chance to raise the profile of Sport Climbing in Africa.

Introduction

Tomoa Narasaki (JPN) Age: 25

Born in Utsunomiya, 50 kilometres north of Tokyo, Narasaki got a lucky break right at the start of his climbing career when - aged 10 - he was taken under the wing of legendary Japanese climber Sachi Amma. Amma’s family ran a gym and young Narasaki's debut coincided with Amma just as the elder climber’s incredibly successful IFSC career was taking off. That stroke of fortune wasn’t the only early advantage Narasaki had - he’d also taken part in gymnastics competitions and was strong and well-coordinated before he ever walked into a climbing gym. He’s made the most of those two head starts by combining them with a ferocious work ethic and fierce determination. 

Narasaki's World Cup career got underway in 2012 (at a Lead World Cup in Japan) but it wasn’t until 2014 that he started competing regularly in Boulder events. The results were unspectacular until the Haiyang World Cup that year, when he made his first semi final and then his first final at the same event. After that he began to consistently make semis but no more finals until Chongqing, China in 2016 when he made the final, won the event and went on to dominate the season. In that year alone he won the Boulder World Cup overall title, a World Championship gold in Boulder, and the adidas Rockstars invitational competition. In the years since, Narasaki’s added three Lead World Cup medals to his tally and in 2019 did another World Cup overall and World Championship double to cement his place as one of the sport’s true greats. His natural quietness and lack of English language skills make him a somewhat mysterious character, essentially unknown even to those who see him regularly at competitions, and this only adds to his aura.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 1st Place

Going into Hachioji the pressure was really on Narasaki; he was considered the best male Japanese climber (which is saying something) and was expected, in front of his home crowd, to qualify for the Olympics at the first time of asking. He didn’t so much meet expectations, he blew them away - scoring just 4 points in the Combined final and winning the competition seemingly at a canter.

Trivia

Narasaki is the only male climber in IFSC history to win the Boulder World Cup and Boulder World Championships in the same season. And he’s done it twice! Narasaki is regularly featured in men's fashion magazines such as GQ Japan and is somewhat of a rising sports celebrity in his home country.

UKC prediction

On paper Narasaki is the favourite for gold but he is a shy, quiet guy and may not deal well with the scrutiny (which will be immense) from the Japanese media - we think he’ll be on the podium, but not the top step.

Introduction

Jakob Schubert (AUT) Age: 30

One of Innsbruck’s finest climbers (and that’s saying something), Jakob Schubert is nothing short of a living legend. A perfect example of, “You become who you hang out with”, Schubert came onto the Innsbruck climbing scene when Anna Stöhr, Kilian Fischhuber, David Lama, Angy Eiter, Babsi Zangerl, Jorg Verhoeven and Katha Saurwein were all knocking around the legendary Tivoli wall and with company like that, he was off to a good start. He seemed to pick up everything they could teach him and he’s also figured out for himself how to always be at his best when the stakes are highest - a useful skill with the Olympics looming.

Schubert has been on the podium for the Lead World Cup overall title in no less than 8 seasons (which includes 3 wins), is joint holder (with Ramón Julián Puigblanqué) of the record for most World Cup wins ever and has 7 World Championship medals, including 3 golds (2 in Lead, 1 in Combined). His form comes and goes - like every athlete - but there is nobody in the climbing world who is better at being ready for the big events; Schubert has only missed out on the podium twice in the seven Lead World Championships he’s contested.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 2nd Place

As mentioned above, Schubert usually shows up when he needs to, and the final of the IFSC Combined World Championships in Hachioji was a classic example of that - he got 7th in Speed (his only glaring weakness is his Speed climbing), 5th in Boulder and then found the only top in Lead, putting him second overall. No dramas, no appeals, no silly mistakes - job done at the first time of asking with zero fuss. That, in a nutshell, is Jakob Schubert.

Trivia

Schubert’s sister Hannah is also a professional climber, with a Youth World Championship win and a World Cup medal to her name.

UKC prediction

Winner. He knows how to peak at the right time, is the most successful male Lead climber of all time and even has a hat-trick of World Cup wins in his “second” discipline (Boulder). He’ll be ready, and nobody is better at finding a way to win in the heat of the moment. The best competitor in the history of climbing will win the sport’s first Olympic gold medal.

Introduction

Rishat Khaibullin (KAZ) Age: 25

The surprise package! After a frankly unremarkable IFSC career which had featured one Speed World Cup final appearance and best finishes of 23rd in Boulder and 72nd (!) in Lead, it’s safe to say that nobody was tipping Rishat Khaibullin for a major result in the 2019 IFSC World Championships. However, when the hour came so did the man, and Khaibullin not only qualified for the Combined part of the World Championships, he then went on to win the Speed part of the qualification round, secured his spot in the final and took 3rd there - enough to sail into an Olympic slot.

Since that incredible day back in August 2019 there has - understandably - been plenty of media attention around Khaibullin and his story is becoming better known. He grew up in Kazakhstan, a country where all competition climbers compete in all three disciplines and it was this early exposure to Speed climbing (a discipline that Khaibullin himself describes as “awfully boring”!) that has made him so quick. Four years ago he moved to the Czech Republic and now trains regularly with Adam Ondra and Martin Stranik - good company to be keeping by any standards. Both of those climbers rate Khaibullin as a climber and a man, which is high praise indeed.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 3rd Place

See above for the story of Khaibullin’s Olympic qualification, a result which shocked everybody except, it would seem, the man himself. Showing up in the big moments is a hugely useful skill and Khaibullin seems to be an expert in it.

Trivia

Khaibullin’s best IFSC Lead results seem to come in the tougher (because of increased importance and participation numbers) World Championships instead of at run of the mill World Cups - his best finish at a Lead World Cup is 72nd but he’s finished 50th, 52nd and 53rd in the three Lead World Championships he’s contested.

UKC prediction

Despite his (somewhat comical) disdain for Speed, a win in the qualification round of that discipline is Khaibullin’s best hope for a spot in the Olympic final. However, with 2019 Speed World Champion Ludovico Fossali and two-time Speed World Cup season champion Bassa Mawem also taking part in Tokyo, Khaibullin will be up against it. We think he’ll miss out on the Speed win and finish in the lower half of the qualification round.

Introduction

Kai Harada (JPN) Age: 22

Kai Harada’s rise from promising youngster in late 2015 to qualified Olympian four years later, via a World Championship win, has been nothing short of meteoric. The progress of his career has been linear, but also incredibly quick; 2015 - World Cup debut (38th at a Lead event in Puurs, Belgium). 2016 - 2 Lead semi finals. 2017 - First Boulder final. 2018 - Another Boulder final, 3rd in the Youth World Championships in both Lead and Boulder, and then a senior World Championship win. 2019 - World Cup medals in both Lead and Boulder, plus Olympic qualification (ahead of a star-studded Japanese team which included Kokoro Fujii, Meichi Narasaki and Keita Dohi) and a win at the World Beach Games (yes, that is a thing).

Harada grew up in Yokohama - where the Rugby World Cup final was played last year - around 10 kilometres from where climbing will be contested in the Olympics. He’s long been tipped as a rising star in Japanese climbing but that is true of many others - Harada has actually followed through on that promise and is now the team’s second-best all rounder, behind Tomoa Narasaki. In a setup with as much depth as Japan’s, his ascent to the top of the pile has been incredibly impressive, and his altitude will be determined only by his attitude - he’s got a nasty habit of going for the show rather than the win. If his coaches and colleagues can drum into him that winning ugly beats losing spectacularly, he will be a serious contender in Tokyo.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 4th Place

As mentioned above, competition was fierce for the mandated two men's slots that Japan had available to them at their home Olympics. They were always going to fill them, it was just a question of who. Tomoa Narasaki seemed fairly nailed-on for one of them but the other was wide open and Harada stepped up when it mattered most, claiming his Olympic ticket and only narrowly missing out on a podium at the Combined World Championships.

Trivia

Harada has 4 Youth World Championship medals, none of which are gold, and his only IFSC victory is the senior World Championships in 2018.

UKC prediction

A place in the final, but not on the podium. However, he is likely to peak physically a few years from now, just in time for Paris 2024…             

Introduction

Mickaël Mawem (FRA) Age: 30

The younger of the ‘frères Mawem’ – the Mawem Brothers – dynamic duo, Mickaël Mawem applied his explosive power and movement skills to bouldering while his older brother Bassa focused on Speed. That’s not to say that Mickaël is slow off the mark, though: his Speed Personal Best of 6.250 seconds is faster than most non-Speed specialists and he achieved a best-ever rank of 21^st in a Speed World Cup in 2019.

Although Mawem hasn’t won any World Cup medals, his consistency in achieving top-30 results across Boulder and Speed put him in a strong position for earning a Tokyo 2020 quota place. In 2019 he reached his peak, finishing 7^th in the Hachioji Combined World Championships and with it a ticket to Tokyo. Mawem continued this run of form and confidence by winning the IFSC European Championships (Boulder) in Zakopane, Poland the following month. Mawem is especially adept at parkour-like, run-and-jump co-ordination movements, which are bound to be in the routesetters’ playbook in Tokyo.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 7^th place

Making the Combined Final ensured Mawem’s quota place no matter his result – at the earliest possible qualification opportunity. A 4^th in Speed, 4^th in Boulder and a 7^th place in Lead in the final proved his capabilities in the first two disciplines and confirmed his weakness in Lead. There’s work to do in this event for Mawem, and if he can improve his endurance it will make him a more well-rounded climber and a possible contender for a top-10 finish. 

Trivia

Mickaël and his older brother Bassa (34) will be the only sibling pair in the Tokyo 2020 Sport Climbing event, occupying the two men’s quota places for France.

UKC prediction

With an edge over many of his competitors in Speed and his skillset in Boulder, we estimate that Mawem will finish in the top 15, but fall short of the top 10.

Introduction

Alex Megos (GER) Age: 27

As one of the world’s best rock climbers, Megos generally brings a different skillset and a more relaxed attitude to the competition circuit. Megos was a formidable youth competitor before turning his talents towards hard rock climbs, with two European Youth Lead Championship titles to his name and a clean sweep of a European Youth Lead Cup season in 2009. Whenever his name has cropped up on a senior IFSC startlist since his return to competing in 2017, people have been drawn to turning up or tuning-in to watch. 

In 2018, Megos won Bronze in the Innsbruck Lead World Championships and went one better in Hachioji in 2019, winning a silver medal. Although not as consistent as some other competitors, Megos is also highly capable in Boulder, having won silver in the 2017 European Boulder Championships and – most crucially – ranked 1^st in the Boulder qualification round at the Combined World Championships in Hachioji last year. Megos is perhaps the climber who will bring the most personality and individuality to the Games; he’s a true character who manages to bridge the gap between being a quirky rock-climbing dirtbag and a dedicated athlete, while still being very much the ‘part-timer’ of the circuit. His sharp wit and dry sense of humour will probably see him cracking jokes between climbs in Tokyo, while putting in a valiant fight on the wall.  

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 8^th place

A dream Combined qualification round in Hachioji saw Megos top the scoreboard in both Boulder and Lead and qualify for the finals in 1^st place, guaranteeing him an Olympic quota place. However, disaster struck in the Boulder final as he injured his finger and retired from the event. Despite affecting his seed placing, this minor injury won’t affect his preparation for the Olympics. 

Trivia

Megos is half Greek, eats carrots for power and his favourite colour is yellow.

UKC prediction

Now that his focus will be almost entirely on the Olympics, we expect Megos’s Boulder and Speed capabilities to vastly improve. If he can beat Ondra to the #1 against his name in Lead and maintain a high rank in Boulder and a decent position in Speed, Megos is a strong contender for a top-10 position or even a top-8 final finish if he can dominate Boulder and Lead as he did in Hachioji Combined qualification.

Introduction

Ludovico Fossali (ITA) Age: 24

One of the surprise packages from 2019, Fossali was one of the Speed climbers who took maximum advantage of the Combined scoring system, wherein an excellent ranking in one discipline is usually enough to secure a top-10 finish overall, even if you’re last in the other two disciplines. He is as close to an out-and-out Speed climber as any of the qualified Olympic men, but maximised his opportunities when they arose - a recurring theme throughout his career.

Until the Arco World Cup in 2017, Fossali was a good Speed climber, regularly making finals and claiming the occasional top-10 finish, but in his home World Cup he claimed his first podium and hasn’t looked back since. He won the very next competition - the Edinburgh World Cup - to claim his first senior victory and then in Hachioji 2019 he became Speed World Champion in a frankly messy but thoroughly entertaining final. Nobody would claim that in a clean run Fossali is faster than the Bassa Mawems and Reza Alipourshenas of this world, but being consistently in the right place at the right time is a useful skill, and one Fossali seems to have mastered.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 9th place

Fossali’s victory in the Hachioji Speed World Championships effectively qualified him for the Combined part of that competition. In the Combined he was second in Speed and then 20th in both Lead and Boulder, but that good result right at the start of the day was enough to net him 9th. That meant that he missed out on the final but with four Japanese climbers ahead of him, 9th proved to be enough to secure him an Olympic slot.

Trivia

Fossali grew up less than 10 kilometres from Ferrari headquarters in Maranello…insert your own pun about speed here!

UKC prediction

Much like Bassa Mawem and Rishat Khaibullin, Fossali’s only realistic chance of making the Olympic final is to win the Speed part of the qualification round. We’re backing Mawem for the Speed win, which will leave Fossali in the mid-field, out of the final.

Introduction

Sean McColl (CAN) Age: 33

A chance encounter with climbing at a friend’s birthday party at the age of 10 marked the start of Sean McColl’s climb to Tokyo. Following a successful youth competition career in both Lead and Speed events – which pre-dated the introduction of the IFSC youth Boulder events – McColl smoothly transitioned to senior level and has been a circuit fixture in Lead and Boulder since 2006. Over a senior career spanning more than 15 years, McColl has won 34 medals, five of which are gold. Although he has never won a World Championship title in an individual discipline, McColl won the 2012 Overall Climbing World Championships in Paris, having performed best across the separate Lead, Speed and Boulder events – an early ‘combined’ format – and has topped the Overall World Cup Combined Ranking four times.

In his ambassadorial roles within the IFSC Athletes’ Commission – of which he is the current President – McColl played an important part in securing the sport’s Olympic status. When Sport Climbing was announced as a new Olympic event in 2016, McColl was quick to add the descriptor ‘Future Olympian’ to his website and make qualification a four-year goal. McColl’s hasty, footless and dynamic climbing style is exciting to watch, but has sometimes led to mistakes, slips and erratic results. Despite his well-roundedness throughout his career, proved by his four Overall World Cup wins, McColl hasn’t so far quite lived up to the hype and expectation that many followers - and perhaps he himself - had for strong performances in the new Olympic Combined format. At 32, he’s a veteran with a strong pedigree, but younger competitors are adapting to the one-day triathlon a bit better. A crowd-pleaser and social media-savvy climber, McColl will likely find himself some new fans in Tokyo.

Qualification route

Hachioji World Championships: 10^th place

With four Japanese athletes qualifying for the Combined final in Hachioji, this meant that the two non-Japanese athletes in 9^th and 10^th position completed the group of eight climbers to earn the first Olympic berths in Hachioji. McColl was just on the threshold of making the cut, and for a moment it looked as though Adam Ondra had knocked him out of contention on the Lead wall, until his score was marked down due to a bolt-stepping incident following an appeal. It was an emotional half-hour for McColl, whose ticket was up in the air but ultimately punched thanks to an atypical error by fan-favourite Ondra

Trivia

McColl is a Level 10 pianist, a Rubix Cube expert and is fluent in French.

UKC prediction

Although he qualified at the earliest opportunity, we think that McColl will need to up his game to make a top-10 position in Tokyo. His Speed PB is fast, but he needs more consistency in both Speed and Boulder to balance his better rankings in Lead. A top-15 finish is possible, but there are some younger unknowns who will be upping the ante in the next few months. 

Introduction

Michael Piccolruaz (ITA) Age: 25

Originating from the South Tyrol region of Italy, Piccolruaz came from a family of climbers and began his competition career way back in 2009. Interestingly, he started out competing in Lead and Speed, but is now best known for his bouldering. His first big wins came in Boulder too, when he picked up a pair of European Youth Cup victories in 2013.

Over the past six years he’s become a regular Boulder World Cup semi-finalist, occasional finalist and one-time medallist (he was 2nd in Kazo 2016). Surprisingly, he’s not made a final since that magical day in Kazo, but he’s capable of making Lead and Boulder semis, and his Speed is pretty good too. He trains alongside Jakob Schubert as well, so he’s keeping good company with the Olympics approaching!

Qualification route

Tripartite Commission Place - Hachioji

There was much discussion about how the IFSC’s Tripartite Commission slots would be handed out, but in the end they simply went to the highest-ranked eligible climber from the IFSC 2019 World Championships, which was Piccolruaz and Anouck Jaubert (FRA).

Trivia

Although Italian, Piccolruaz grew up in the German speaking part of the country and has long been a resident of Innsbruck, Austria.

UKC prediction

Piccolruaz has the talent to make the final but possibly not the consistency. We predict a mid-table finish, outside the final.

Introduction

Jongwon Chon (KOR) Age: 25

Initially a Lead and Speed climber, Jongwon Chon's progression to making two finals in his first IFSC Boulder World Cup circuit at the age of 18 - just four years after starting climbing - marked him out as one to watch. The following year he reached four finals and won his first World Cup in Haiyang, China, before going on to win the overall title. In 2016, his performance dipped slightly with a 4th place finish overall, but he returned in 2017 to take the win once again.

Chon's fluid climbing style with light footwork and incredible finger strength are well-suited to old-school style problems, but occasionally more power-based and co-ordination problems have set him back. He's a highly likeable personality on the competition circuit, and is frequently seen interacting with athletes from other teams. As in many Asian countries, the Korean climbing scene is growing rapidly and is based around "crews" of climbers known as 'dong-ho-hwe', which has helped to foster a new generation of strong and motivated climbers who grew up watching Jain Kim and Hyunbin Min on the IFSC circuit. Chon credits training alongside teammate Sol Sa as being formative in his progression.

Qualification route

Asian Continental Quota Place (IFSC World Championships Hachioji 2019)

Chon was the highest-ranked non-Japanese Asian climber in Hachioji, but he failed to deliver in Toulouse at his next opportunity, finishing in 17th place. The uncertainty surrounding the fate of the postponed IFSC Asia Continental Championship in Chongqing after China announced it wouldn't be hosting any international sporting events prompted some people to believe that the event was cancelled, which meant that Chon would earn a quota place on countback to Hachioji as the highest-placed eligible Asian competitor. Chon hesitantly announced that he would be going to Olympics on social media, but the IFSC eventually announced a rescheduling of the event to Xiamen in December, which never happened. After a prolonged state of limbo, Chon was ultimately awarded the Asian ticket alongside compatriot Chaehyun Seo. 

Trivia

Chon has featured in Elle Korea magazine and famously entertained the crowd by dancing with close friend Jernej Kruder during their Adidas Rockstars head-to-head. 

UKC prediction

A Gold medal ahead of Kokoro Fujii (JPN) and Tomoa Narasaki (JPN) in the 2018 Asian Games in the Combined discipline shows that Chon has the potential for good results in Tokyo. He has occasional off-seasons, such as 2016 and 2019, when he had a slow start to the boulder season and ended with just one 3rd place. If he can secure a good Boulder score and work on his Lead and Spedd in the run-up to Tokyo, Chon could make finals. We're not sure given the uncertainty he's had to deal with that he will have had perfect preparation, so perhaps a top-10 finish is more likely for Chon.

Introduction

Adam Ondra (CZE) Age: 28

No other climber on the planet - with the exception of Alex Honnold, perhaps - gets recognised and approached for autographs in airports, town centres and climbing walls like Adam Ondra. Along his journey from 6-year-old rock wonderkid to Olympian, Ondra has set records and forged new ground in almost every aspect of rock and competition climbing: Ondra is the only male athlete to have won IFSC World Championship titles in two disciplines (Lead and Boulder) in the same year (2014); he is the only male athlete to have won the World Cup series in both disciplines (Lead in 2009, 2015 and 2019, and Boulder in 2010); he made a rapid second ascent of the Dawn Wall in Yosemite in 2016; he established the world’s first 9c rock climb in 2017 and achieved the world’s first 9a+ flash in 2018. In fact, since he first stepped off the ground with his climbing parents, barely a year has gone by in which Ondra hasn’t rewritten the history books.

Despite his fame and anomalously large fan-base for a professional climber - 573,000 followers on Instagram, second only to Alex Honnold with 2 million – Ondra remains a grounded, passionate and widely-respected ambassador for the sport in its myriad forms. His engagement in climbing competitions has helped garner newfound respect for the discipline from some cynical outdoor traditionalists, who have followed his participation with interest. In 2016, however, Ondra wasn't so keen on speed climbing and consequently, training for the Olympic Combined format. 'I think speed climbing is kind of an artificial discipline,' he commented at the time. ‘It doesn't have much in common with the climbing philosophy in my opinion,' he continued, before explaining that he would need to 'think a lot' about committing to the Olympics - a classic example of Ondra’s cerebral approach to climbing. Much to the appreciation of the climbing world, Ondra changed his mind and set out on his ‘Road to Tokyo’ – the title of his popular YouTube series documenting his preparation. Even the New York Times followed him across three continents to tell the story of his Olympic journey, with perhaps the best opening line ever: ‘The world’s best climber is a wiry 27-year-old with a curly mop of hair and a noticeably long neck.’

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 2nd place

An unexpected twist in Ondra’s Road to Tokyo arrived at the Hachioji World Championships during the Combined Lead qualification. After a disappointing run, Ondra’s score was marked down due to a bolt-stepping incident following an appeal, which ranked him 18^th and well out of contention for an Olympic ticket. With the eyes of the climbing world watching him on the livestream and the expectation that comes with being Adam Ondra, drama and an emotional outburst would likely have been forgiven. But Ondra dealt with defeat and disappointment with his trademark humility. In Toulouse, an illness seemed like yet another hurdle on his Road to Tokyo, but he battled on, finishing last in Speed, 3^rd in Boulder and 1^st in Lead to take 2^nd place and a hard-earned ticket to the Games. As John Branch wrote in his New York Times profile of Ondra: ‘There was relief. But with Ondra, there is always a sense that the hardest part is ahead.’

Trivia

Ondra uses his characteristically long neck as a pendulum to push his feet closer to the wall. He also speaks English and Italian fluently, and can communicate in French, Spanish and German.

UKC prediction

With his prowess in Lead and capability of finishing top of the boulder round, Ondra will be relying on these disciplines to drag up what will realistically be a 15-20^th place finish in Speed. Occasionally, Ondra can become flustered in Boulder rounds if things aren’t going his way, so he’ll need a number 1 beside his name in Lead to secure a podium position. Given his weakness in Speed compared to some other strong ‘biathletes’, we don’t think Ondra will take the win, but finish 2^nd or 3^rd. If he does win gold, it’ll be yet another reason to laud him with the nebulous accolade of ‘World’s Best Climber.’

Introduction

Bassa Mawem (FRA) Age: 36

A late-starter compared to many on the circuit, Bassa Mawem discovered climbing through school sport at the age of 15. In the early 2010s, France was emerging as an up-and-coming nation in Speed climbing and Mawem joined the French team and its national training camps in Voiron in 2011, before going on to become a five-time French Speed Champion. Mawem is the most decorated male Speed climber in the Olympic line-up, having won eleven medals and the overall Speed World Cup title twice in both 2018 and 2019.

His smooth ‘running’ style on the Speed wall – with precise foot placements and co-ordinated hand movements occurring in a fluid motion – makes Mawem a consistent top-10 competitor in Speed World Cups, where slips and falls and fits and starts are not uncommon. Mawem divides his time between Réunion Island and mainland France, training alongside his younger brother and fellow Tokyo Olympian, Mickaël. Unlike some specialists, Mawem isn’t a monomaniac when it comes to Speed: his roots in climbing were in bouldering and lead climbing outdoors, which he still partakes in from time to time as a break from the IFSC Speed route. 

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 4th place

After failing to make Combined finals in the Hachioji World Championships – where his brother Mickaël earned his Olympic ticket – Mawem was odds-on to make the cut in Toulouse. With his main Speed competition – Ludovico Fossali and Rishat Khaibullin – already selected and absent in Toulouse, Mawem looked to be relatively confident of having a “1” beside his name in Speed. As expected, Mawem dominated the Speed rounds in Toulouse and finished in 4^th place to join his brother in Tokyo.

Trivia

Mawem is the oldest Sport Climbing athlete qualified for the Tokyo 2020 Games and is almost 20 years older than Colin Duffy (USA). He is one of just two qualified athletes who have a child.

UKC prediction

As a Speed specialist with the fastest PB and best Speed resume of all the Olympic-qualified climbers, Mawem stands a very good chance of placing 1^st in Speed, making finals and potentially finishing in 4^th place, since the biggest number he could accumulate in this case would be 64 (1x8x8), which was his score from Toulouse. Like his brother Mickaël, Bassa ideally needs to work on upping his Lead game and perhaps gain more experience in Lead and Boulder World Cups this season (if they happen), since he’s only competed in six events in total across these two disciplines.

Introduction

Jan Hojer (GER) Age: 29

Cologne-born all-rounder Jan Hojer started competing from the age of 10 and was considered a strong contender for the Olympics as soon as the triple discipline format was announced. His background in youth Lead and Speed competitions combined with high strength and power in Bouldering - and a happy-go-lucky nature - make him one to watch in Tokyo, along with his consistency in peaking at the right time. Hojer seems to thrive in high-pressure, one-off championship events, having won just twelve medals in 53 Boulder World Cup rounds, but an impressive seven medals across fewer-and-further-between World and European Championships and World Games. With his uncanny ability to out-do routesetters and find his own unique way of doing moves to suit his tall frame, Hojer is an extremely adaptable athlete. 
 

Hojer won the IFSC Boulder World Cup overall title in 2014 and has three European Championship titles to his name: two in Boulder and one in Combined. At World Championship level, he has won three medals (two bronze, one silver) in Boulder and Combined, including a bronze in the 2018 Innsbruck World Championships in Combined – the first event in which the Combined format was contested at senior level.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 5^th place

Following a disappointing 17^th place at the first Olympic qualifying event - the IFSC World Championships in Hachioji – Hojer had to make up the ground in Toulouse, knowing that only one quota place for a German male remained after Alex Megos punched his ticket in Hachioji and compatriot Yannick Flohé narrowly missed out, finishing in 11^th place. A steady performance in Toulouse – which saw him battle head-to-head in a critical run with Flohé in Speed – earned him 5^th place in the event to become seed #11.

Trivia

At 6ft2, Hojer stands head and shoulders above many of his fellow competitors.

UKC prediction

Given his experience and ability to deal with pressure, we reckon Hojer could make finals and finish 6^th.

Introduction

YuFei Pan (CHN) Age: 20

Guangzhou native YuFei Pan was a relative unknown internationally until 2017, when he placed 3^rd in the Xiamen Lead World Cup, seemingly arriving out of the blue. Pan dropped off the radar in 2018, but 2019 was at once his comeback and break-out year: he made semi-finals in every Boulder World Cup he entered and narrowly missed out on finals in Wujiang in 8^th place. When the Lead season kicked off, Pan demonstrated that his 2017 Xiamen podium result wasn’t a fluke by finishing 2^nd in the first Lead World Cup of the year in Villars.

Pan has long been touted by the Chinese as one to watch, and with the rise of climbing as a sport in China, there’s no doubt that he has a promising future as more opportunities become available to him. Through competing and medaling in the Asian Youth Championships, Pan has been exposed to his slightly older Japanese heros, including Tomoa Narasaki. Pan’s Instagram includes photos of him posing with his Japanese idols a few years ago, and now he’s heading to the world’s biggest sporting event to compete alongside them. At the end of the 2019 Boulder season, Pan commented on Instagram: ‘Learned a lot from those competitions. Especially controlling the mind during the competition. Still need to improve a lot.’ Pan clearly has the ability, but he’s still young and there’s no doubt that with more mental control over his performance, he’ll be a regular podium-finisher on the circuit – perhaps in two disciplines.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 6th place

Hachioji wasn’t Pan’s best performance, but in Toulouse his status as one of the most well-rounded athletes was confirmed: a 6^th in Lead, 4^th in Boulder and 3^rd in Speed, with a win in Boulder in the Qualification round.

Trivia

According to IFSC World Cup medal and Speed PB rankings, Pan is the 7^th-best ranked in both Lead (rankings) and Speed (PB-wise) of the Olympic-qualified men, and 10^th in Boulder (rankings).

UKC prediction

With a bit more IFSC competition experience, Pan should become more consistent across the three disciplines and will be a real contender in Paris 2024 if the Lead and Boulder Combined format is confirmed. In Tokyo, if Pan can pull off one of his stellar performances and score a high ranking in Lead, he could well make the top-10, but given his slightly erratic results, we’ll settle for top-15.

Introduction

Alberto Ginés López (ESP) Age: 18

The matador! A climber since he was big enough to wear a harness, Ginés López was something of a sensation in 2019 (his first full season in senior Lead World Cups) thanks to his battling style and never-say-die attitude. He first appeared in IFSC European Youth Cups in 2016, and a by the next season was already picking up serious amounts of silverware; in 2017 alone he collected four European Youth Cup wins (two in Boulder and two in Lead), as well as the European Youth Championships in Lead. The following year the Youth wins kept coming, and Ginés López also made the final at his first ever senior Lead World Cup, in Arco.

Come 2019 Ginés López appeared (without making semis) in both the Munich and Vail Boulder World Cups and then threw himself in a full Lead season. In the 2nd event of the season (Chamonix) he made the final and delivered one of the standout moments of the entire campaign by battling to 5th place, a result earned only through sheer determination - most climbers would have been spat off long before the point where Ginés López fell, and only his extraordinary willpower kept him on the wall. Since that incredible evening beneath Mont Blanc he’s stood on 2 World Cup podiums, was 2nd only to Adam Ondra in the European Championships and qualified for the Olympics. For any climber, let alone one not yet old enough to buy a beer in a British pub, that’s a pretty decent year.

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 7^th place

After a somewhat disappointing trip to Hachioji for the IFSC World Championships (where he didn’t make semis in either Boulder or Lead) Ginés López knew that his best shot at Olympic qualification would be at the Olympic Selection event in Toulouse. He did what was required, coming 2nd in the qualification round and thereby cruising into one of the six Olympic places that were available.

Trivia

Ginés López moved to Barcelona in 2016 in order to train for the Olympics as soon as it was officially announced that climbing would be going to the Games. That’s impressive forethought for a (then) 13 year old.

UKC prediction

Ginés López was really hitting his stride in late 2019 and looked like he was closing in on a first World Cup win. The postponed Games will likely be an advantage to the young Spaniard because he’ll have a while longer for his rapid improvement to continue. Regardless, any climber who is young, hungry and basically will not let go on a Lead route is always in with a shout. We think he’ll make the final but lacks the big match experience to make the podium. A bet on him picking up a medal in Paris 2024 would not be a bad idea at all.

Introduction

Nathaniel Coleman (USA) Age: 24

A quiet, cerebral climber, Coleman is probably best summed up by his own answer when a journalist asked him “Who do you think is the most surprising name on the list of qualified Olympians?” and the young American replied, “Nathaniel Coleman”. It was a good line and says much about his modesty and dislike of the spotlight. Coleman is a thinker - a student of climbing and climbing movement, and a calculating, clever competitor.

Coleman burst onto the international climbing scene in 2015, picking up silver medals in Toronto and Vail in just his second and third World Cup appearances. Despite that blistering start his career then stalled somewhat on the international front and, incredibly, he is yet to make another appearance in an IFSC final since those two events five years ago. However, he’s been prolific in American competitions and between 2016 and 2018 won three consecutive Bouldering National Championships, flashing all the final boulders in the last two of those three victories. 

Qualification route

Toulouse Combined Qualifier: 5^th place

Although best known (rightly) as a boulderer, Coleman is no slouch on a Lead wall and has been working hard at his Speed too. That horsepower in Boulder, mixed with dedicated training in the other two disciplines netted him a place at Toulouse and he took full advantage, making the final and punching his Olympic ticket.

Trivia

Coleman is adept at logic games such as chess, Rubix cubing and kendama.

UKC prediction

On his day Coleman is a serious contender in Boulder, but given the calibre of his opposition at the Olympics, that is unlikely to be enough for him to secure a spot in the finals. We predict a mid-table finish, outside the final.

Introduction

Alexey Rubtsov (RUS) Age: 32

Alexey Rubtsov is a legend of the competition climbing world. Coming relatively late into climbing, Rubtsov only took up the sport as a 17-year-old. At the age of 20 he was Bouldering World Champion!

From the beginning of his career Rubtsov displayed the physical and mental attributes required to be a successful competitive climber. Training with Russian competition legends like Dmitrii Sharafutdinov and Rustam Gelmanov, Rubtsov moved rapidly to the top of the sport. There he remained for a decade before ripping his bicep attachment from the bone during a finals problem in a competition in Slovenia in 2018. That could have been the end of the road for the incredibly talented Russian, but as always, he fought back, relearning how to climb with his repaired arm and regaining the fitness he had lost.

Qualification route

IFSC Europe Continental Championships: 1st Place

If anyone benefitted from the rescheduling of the European championships it was Rubtsov; the extra months of training being hugely beneficial to the legend. From a mental perspective he had a huge head start having won multiple major events in his long career, but those extra months allowed him to get back into prime physical condition for the qualifying event.

In the event, Rubtsov showed that it wasn’t just his bouldering prowess that would serve him well, but his consistency across all three disciplines. In the finals score of 5, 1 and 4 were enough to see him snatch victory in front of a deep and talented field.

Trivia

When Rubtsov opened the first dedicated bouldering gym in Moscow, his choice of name would turn out to be providential. Climbin Tokyo became the hub for a strong new generation of Russian climbers, but it was the gym's founder that will be climbing in Tokyo at the Olympics!

Alexey is also an incredibly accomplished outdoor boulderer, and has spared no effort to climb in iconic locations around the world. From Hampi, India, to the US, and of course to the climbing meccas of Europe. With his wife, Alexey would undertake ridiculous road trips to fulfil his climbing dreams. Indeed, after spending weeks in Europe climbing in 2015 he left the afterparty at the Munich World Cup (which he had just won) early to drive the 30+ hours it takes to get back to Moscow!

UKC prediction

We find Rubtsov a hard climber to place. In his prime you would have pencilled him in for a podium. Now, as an older climber having come back from a major injury, it will be his innate climbing ability and experience competing under pressure that will be his greatest strengths.
We predict Rubtsov will make finals but finish off the podium, around 7^th.

Introduction

Colin Duffy (USA) Age: 17

A sensation! Colin Duffy has been the talk of the climbing world in 2020 after his staggering performance at the PanAmerican Championship in Los Angeles this past February netted him an Olympic slot. Until this season, watching Duffy was an annual treat for IFSC viewers, who only got to watch him in the World Youth Championships each year whilst waiting for him to reach 16 - the minimum age at which climbers can compete in senior events. Judging by what happened in LA in February, the wait was more than worth it!

Duffy won the first two World Youth Championships he contested in his favoured discipline of Lead, picking up gold in Innsbruck (2017) and Moscow (2018) thanks to some battling performances. His ability to fight and to push through fatigue was quite extraordinary, and those who watched him at those events knew that they were catching a glimpse of the future. Perhaps the only surprise about Duffy’s recent arrival on the senior scene is that his predicted glorious future has arrived so quickly - Duffy is now an Olympian-to-be, an extremely strong boulderer and a pretty handy Speed climber too. His coach - the legendary Robyn Erbesfield-Raboutou - has long believed that Duffy was the real deal and it is now easy to understand her faith in him.

Qualification route

PanAmerican Championship: 1st place

Duffy had strong competition in Los Angeles - not least from compatriot Sean Bailey, who’d come close to Olympic qualification at both Hachioji and Toulouse - but Duffy seemed completely calm in southern California, and took the Olympic ticket from under the noses of Bailey and several other strong Americans. Even after the event, he was calm, collected and mature beyond his years.

Trivia

At 16, Duffy was the youngest qualified Olympian of either gender, and hadn’t competed in any senior IFSC events until the PanAmerican selection event in Los Angeles! 

UKC prediction

Duffy is a real scrapper, a truly world class Lead climber, a very good boulderer and far from the worst Speed climber in the men’s Olympic lineup. These factors, combined with a complete lack of pressure on him, makes him our dark horse for a spot in the final - especially as he has another year of physical growth due to postponement and a Lead World Cup medal now under his belt. We think he’ll end up making the final, but not the podium. 

Introduction

Tom O’Halloran (AUS) Age: 28

The darkest of dark horses, Australian Tom O’Halloran has flown so far under the radar you’d virtually need ground penetrating radar to detect his history in the competition climbing world. Yet here we are announcing Tom as an Olympian, so how did this come about? After competing in youth events at a world level back in 2007, Tom turned his immense talents from plastic to the sandstone walls of Australia’s Blue Mountains.

Having started a career and a family, competition climbing was just about the furthest thing from Tom’s mind. Over the last decade, O'Halloran has established himself as the master of the Blue Mountains. He has made four first ascents of 9a sport climbs and bouldered V15. When climbing's debut at the Olympics was announced, the flame of competition was rekindled in O'Halloran’s mind. As a youngster he had dreamed of being an Olympian, yet until now that path had never existed. Now that pathway was in place and he realised that this would be his chance.

Qualification route

IFSC Oceania Continental Championships: 1st place

After only competing in lead in Hachioji, O'Halloran's sole chance to get to Tokyo was via the IFSC Oceania Continental Championships in Sydney, yet with the frustrations and uncertainty of the COVID-19 situation, he almost walked away from his opportunity. Luckily for O'Halloran he persevered and showed fantastic consistency at the event by securing 2nd in each discipline on his way to 1st place and Olympic qualification.

Trivia

O'Halloran is the second parent qualified for Tokyo, being the father of a young daughter called Audrey.

UKC prediction

A lead specialist who also boulders strongly and is consistently in the low 7-second range in Speed, O'Halloran has the potential for a strong result in Tokyo, but against some of the best competition climbers in the world his relative lack of experience will probably count against him. We believe he could trouble the top 10 in the final rankings, but factoring in his inexperience in big competitions we have a prediction of 14^th.

Introduction

Christopher Cosser (RSA) Age: 20

Chris Cosser lives in Johannesburg, South Africa. He started climbing in 2012 when a friend bought him a climbing film (Progression) for his birthday. 'I remember watching the film and knowing I needed to try this sport myself!' he says. Cosser managed to find a small school wall and was fortunate to be allowed to climb there as he knew the Head of Sport personally. Progressing in competitions in a country where the discipline is not valued has been tricky for Cosser. 'In South Africa the only point of climbing indoors was to train for outdoors,' he says. 'Only in 2019 did my focus change and I decided to spend more energy on the competition scene. Competition climbing has never been seen as a viable aspect of climbing in South Africa.'

In 2018, Cosser spent six months off climbing while recovering from two growth plate finger injuries. He has competed at junior level in World Youth Championship events, where he placed 14th in Combined in Arco in 2019. In the same year, he joined the senior circuit and competed in six IFSC World Cups across all three disciplines, his best result being a 57th in Speed in the Villars round. Currently, the climbing scene is so small in Africa that there are no professional climbers earning a living from the sport, making training for and travel to international events difficult. On rock, Cosser has climbed 8b+. He currently holds the African Speed record of 6.87 seconds. 

Qualification route

IFSC Africa Continental Championship

Postponements piled on the pressure and stress for the African hopefuls, who had to wait until December 2020 for their chance to qualify, 16 months after the first athletes earned their tickets. The win in Cape Town came down to the wire, with Cosser battling it out against his teammate Chris Naude, who was leading following the Speed and Boulder rounds. Cosser topped the final route to take the win in Lead, with just two points separating the pair.

Trivia

In just 8 years of climbing, Cosser has broken two fingers and a heel.

UKC prediction

Cosser's speed PB of 6.87 seconds is relatively fast and ranks him 12th out of the 20 qualified men, judging by our PB data. That puts him just behind Nathaniel Coleman and ahead of Sean McColl. Given that Cosser's preferred discipline is Lead, it's possible that he could continue to improve and beat some Speed specialists in the Lead round and bump his ranking up. A 15th-20th place ranking is most likely, given Cosser's lack of IFSC competition experience compared to the rest of the field, but more importantly the Games will be a chance to push himself and showcase African climbing on a global stage.