Winter in Scotland?

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onesteptwosteps 31 Dec 2018

Anyone with experience able to give an estimate for conditions in Scotland (Glencoe) at the end of this January? Seems unusually mild down south!

6
 Roberttaylor 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

It's impossible to say. Could be snowy, could be totally snow free.

Pack the car, then if nothing is in go to the wall.

 

1
 tehmarks 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

Would you like the lottery numbers as well?

Could be anything. A few days before Christmas Glencoe had no snow but the climbing conditions were perfect in the Northern Corries. Three days later, the corries were bare.

Winter hasn't quite kicked off yet, but it can all change very quickly!

 Captain Solo 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

It's unusually mild up north too! I can confidently predict it can't be any worse.

 mauraman 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

Not an expert at all but judging by the temperatures here in the south you would think that there is no way that climbs in the peaks are in conditions, nevertheless I have seen a post (on the winter conditions page here) of two ascents of kinder downfall, yesterday, so I presume there are at least some parts of the fall that have frozen over. How it has happened, I have no idea.

Lots of posts for ascents in various areas of Scotland in the last few days too.

Post edited at 14:00
3
 leon 1 31 Dec 2018
In reply to mauraman: I have seen a post (on the winter conditions page here) of two ascents of kinder downfall, yesterday

Then it must be 1st April. Its not been colder than mildly tepid around here in the Dark Peak over the last week or so.

Edit - Ive just read the comments of those two 'Kinder Winter Ascents' I suggest you do too before getting excited

'Great autumn conditions', 'Ice was terrible because there wasn't any' and 'I love climbing mud and water and pretending its winter'  Nice report guys

Post edited at 14:31
 a crap climber 31 Dec 2018
In reply to leon 1:

Maybe logged the winter route instead of the summer version by accident?

Or probably more likely someone having a laugh as you said

 CurlyStevo 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

second week in feb is yr best bet.

 

2
onesteptwosteps 31 Dec 2018

Looks like I'll simply be crossing my fingers then! Cheers chaps.

Removed User 31 Dec 2018
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

> Looks like I'll simply be crossing my fingers then! Cheers chaps.


Yes....and don't settle on Glencoe as a destination unless you have to. Don't decide where you're going until the day before and go where the conditions and weather will be best.

 Jim Fraser 01 Jan 2019
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

I am lucky to be able to make my decisions after looking out the window and then I just travel a few miles. I still need to use the essential element of a good winter climber's decision process though: FLEXIBILITY. 

Be as flexible as you can with timings and locations. Generally, if you can organise that flexibility for just one month out of twelve then it has to be February. Sometimes that will go wrong too but not often.

What will help is to learn more about weather forecasting and learn to use the medium range forecasts that are now very good. If you are feeling flush you might want to hand Piers Corbyn a wad of cash and ask him to pick you a good week.

Go to http://www.kintailmrt.org.uk/conditions.htm and click on the middle button (Longer ... ). On Snowforecast you get 6 days free and 9 if you pay a small fee. WXmaps provides good detail out 6 days if you learn how to read the right stuff such as the 540/528dam lines for 1000/500mb air density and the 0C at 850mb line. The more of these forecasts you examine the more accurate a picture you will get of the weather up to a week ahead. Out beyond a week, things get sketchy. This is where your February flexibility comes in!

http://www.kintailmrt.org.uk/kmrt01.htm

http://www.kintailmrt.org.uk/kmrt01.htm

http://www.kintailmrt.org.uk/kmrt01.htm

 Mark Bannan 01 Jan 2019
In reply to Roberttaylor:

> It's impossible to say. Could be snowy, could be totally snow free.

Agreed.

> Pack the car, then if nothing is in go to the wall.

Or maybe go for a hillwalk? Great place for it, the 'Coe.

 

 Jim Fraser 02 Jan 2019
In reply to Jim Fraser:

I referred above to the forecasts on the snowforecast website. It looks very like they are currently way off target for freezing levels (over 1000m out) on their Scottish snow map. This has the knock-on effect of producing no forecasts of snow. The precipitation is OK and temperatures on their temperature map is OK. 

This error is disappointing because usually this is a good website for predicting mountain conditions.

In reply to onesteptwosteps:

Trying to look on the positive side,

Tuesday was the coldest day so far this year !

 Pay Attention 02 Jan 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

that BBC site says ... "There is still a risk of colder weather later in January."

I wonder how to plan lifts and weekends on the basis of that.

 

 ebdon 02 Jan 2019
In reply to onesteptwosteps:

All though the end of Jan is a long way away conditions wise I've just come back from Glen Coe and conditions are Autumn like with only tiny patches of snow on the ground and no need for axes or crampons, I did curved ridge with no gloves and lightweight walking boots yesterday. It's going to take some serious winteryness to get things looking better.

Removed User 02 Jan 2019
In reply to ebdon:

Of course it could all change in a couple of days although you need more time than that for good conditions of course.


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