UKH

Despite government advice to cease all unnecessary travel in order to limit the spread of coronavirus, visitors are reported to be flocking to the Lake District, the Scottish Highlands and other 'remote' areas. Authorities are urging people to stay away from these rural areas with limited healthcare facilities.

To quote Glencoe mountain rescue in the last hour (and as someone who lives in a mountain community in North Wales)

...

IF YOU CAN'T SEE YOUR OUTDOOR OBJECTIVE FROM YOUR HOUSE, THEN YOU HAVE MADE A NON ESSENTIAL JOURNEY. 

I'd prefer something a bit simpler like stay within three miles of your home. A lot of people can see a long way from their house and are still trying to justify driving and climbing trips which are non-essential.

Happy with that Tom. Whatever is enforceable!

A lot of people in N Wales are very angry and scared about the deluge of people arriving in our local area today.  

For the last week we have been trying to isolate ourselves and our communities and if you (the generic you, not you Tom) came here today, from outside the area, you have completely disrespected our local communities.

Please do not come here and enjoy and explore the open spaces closer to you.

Genuinely cannot understand the reasoning behind that, but maybe I'm missing something.  If you accept that transmission risks for low density outdoor activity is minimal, then the distance you travel is irrelevant.  If driving 50 miles to your outdoor objective is unnecessary, then so is driving 2 miles.

The Peak (Hope Valley) was crazy busy today, busiest I've seen it for a long time (I've lived here years 25+ years).

Madness.

Damn I cannot run that far in a day! 

Seriously, I was out today and it was a stupid idea to do. I thought I was acting responsibly, but I certainly wasn't. 

Getting a bit pedantic here, but that's not what the government advice website currently says: https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Currently it says: cease non-essential travel to other countries.

It also says: Avoid non-essential use of public transport.

And the "stay at home" advice is if you have symptoms.

Feel free to point me at something on a government website if I've missed it.

'Minimal' is not zero.

The problem is, we all know people as a collective are shit. For every one person, perhaps like you, who is able to act sensibly there are probably 5 who will pop into the local shop or petrol station, having come from 50 miles away.

Some of the lanes today were rammed with mobile homes trying to get to holiday parks etc.

If it's causing the locals anguish, why would you not just respect that and stay away? 

The best thing to do and what I would like the government to do is to enforce a lockdown.  Unfortunately it has been shown that people as a whole cannot be trusted.  

Perhaps ire should be redirected not at those who are worried about their communities, but at those who cannot be sensible and are making non essential journeys to the mountains.

Britain is very green and it is perfectly possible for people to get out in the countryside near them for exercise and fresh air.  Why do you feel personally entitled to come here?

I think the government has given people the chance to act sensibly and the chance has been spurned and action now needs to be taken.

Yes, I thought that was being widely misquoted.

On the other hand, if there is now a problem with non-essential travel within the UK, then the advice should be changed.

You're right Coel. I'm not sure it's constructive pedantry in this case. But we do need to report the facts, not what we personally wish the government would hurry up and say. Amended.

Why do we , as grown-ups, need to be told before we stop doing something which is harmful?

That is fair, but the idea of an isolated community is an illusion.  The virus will arrive in every part of the UK in some form at some point, and it is unlikely to arrive via a mountain carpark.  There are of course many reasons to restrict mobility and social interactions, but this is only partly a function of distance, and restrictions should be proportionate and effective.

True, but those people are unlikely to respond to a request to stay away anyway.

To be honest, I doubt the locals would even notice.  I had a very pleasant ski-tour the other day (driving 30 miles or so without stopping for food or fuel) and didn't see another skier, let alone a local.  I certainly respect the wishes of local people, but they don't own the mountains, and I will  (to a degree) use my own judgement in the absence of official advice or restrictions.

Because individually it may well not be harmful - it becomes harmful if too many people do it, making social distancing impractical or because it turns out there are some people doing it irresponsibly.

The advice was updated yesterday when the new advice re bars etc came out:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on...

I quote:

"

The government has also urged the public to take further steps to protect themselves and the wider population from the coronavirus, including:  

Everyone to stay at home unless they need to get essential supplies such as food and medicines. 

All those able to work from home to do so, unless their work is essential.  

Only traveling if absolutely necessary - while public transport won’t stop, this should only be used for essential travel  - for example by key workers to travel to and from work.  "

At the bottom of the guideline:

Communities Secretary Rt Hon Robert Jenrick MP said: 

We will do whatever it takes to protect people across this country as we tackle the coronavirus outbreak. 

While people have responded well to calls for social distancing and self-isolation, we must go further if we are to be able to stop the spread of the virus and protect the most vulnerable people in our society, and our NHS. 

That is why we are now telling entertainment and hospitality premises to close temporarily, and people to only travel if absolutely essential, to help protect each other from the further spread of the virus.

We stand behind businesses and their employees and are offering an unprecedented range of support as we tackle this huge challenge together.

But then the Peak probably has less claim to be an isolated or remote area. How much of it can you reach from Greater Manchester or Sheffield in a less than 30 minute drive?

So I live in worcestershire and I travelled to north wales today to climb. 

I read the government guidance and it was mentioned does not prohibit transport by private transport. If this is now an issue the guidance should change but it is not fair to brand me as irresponsible.

The reason I suspect it is not current advice is because it actually makes little difference. The number of confirmed cases where I climbed is 7 and 10 where I live which means I am barely more a risk to the population as they are to me and the important bit is actually avoiding CLOSE contact. I'd also argue that because of where I was it was easier for me to follow the social distancing guidelines than it would have been if I walked around my local park. I also filled up my car in my town and chose to not stay overnight to minimise the risk.

Now if we are indeed in it for the long haul (12 months), we also need to make sure that our working population emerge from this healthy and happy which as I can no longer  work (I worked in a climbing wall) us going to be a significant challenge for me. I accept that I will probably have to give up climbing soon but for the time being I intend to carry on as long as I can do it responsibly following government guidance

I'd also suggest that it's easy to say we should limit access for the people that will still have access to these places...

I agree - we have to limit access to everyone like they have done in France etc, and that includes locals like me. Although I believe that the French and Italian restrictions allow you a certain number metres from your house. 

I am happy to do so, if it means stopping others travelling here 

Also, I am not specifically saying you individually are irresponsible,  but it is that if one comes, all the others also feel they are entitled to come too who then act less responsibly.  They are why everyone  can no longer have nice things and we need to lead by example 

 How about “stay within your hospital area”

I’ve seen a lot of caravans heading for the hills through our village today. It’s easy to pour scorn on people running for the hills, and it’s clearly rank stupidity in terms of unnecessary travel and spreading the virus.  On the other hand, if I lived in London “head for the hills” would be the first thing on my mind. It’s no coincidence that I live in a very sparsely populated part of England. But there are an awful lot of people in London, and I really don’t envy them one bit.  I’m all for throwing a security fence around the M25 however...  It seems an awful lot of people fled Paris before it went into lockdown, and I’ve no doubt the same thing will happen with London. Madness. I’m probably a rank hypocrite as the economy that allows me to do what I do and live somewhere sparse and cheap depends on places like London. Nothing is simple with this is it…

From Gov.uk link given above:

The government has also urged the public to take further steps to protect themselves and the wider population from the coronavirus, including:  

Everyone to stay at home unless they need to get essential supplies such as food and medicines

People aren't going to have a choice soon. 

Don't take a weatherman to see which way the wind blows. 

Absolutely. If I lived in London or any other big city I would be utterly dreading the coming months. I'm lucky enough to have lovely places to walk from my house and nice hills to walk up within twenty minutes drive (if I'm allowed) and I'm still worried about going a bit crazy...….

OK, but that wasn't advice when I last went to the hills (which I am certain put nobody at risk).  In any case, that does mean you need  to correct the advice that you quoted earlier in the thread.   Official suggestion  now seems to be that nobody (local or not) should be unnecessarily outdoors (except in their garden).

The advice was updated Today. 

Ok noted cheers

I am sure it was verbally given at the press con Friday but perhaps the written advice today? 

And down here in mid/south Wales, we honestly don't want you here at the moment.

I don't think it will be long before a total ban on outdoor activities such as walking, cycling etc. Unfortunately that will be us as well. Rant over.

Give Tanners a ring and get some supplies in. Stay safe.

Our local piece of forestry was rammed today too. People parked like idiots on double yellows in long lines of cars. Traffic warden would have done nothing... they'd have run out of little yellow sticky envelopes in minutes. 

Trouble is you can't go shopping, can't go to the pub or cafe, cant go to the gym or visit friends and family, what can you do? Go for a walk run or cycle etc in the countryside is the answer. So that's what the nation is doing. It was a lovely day too. Can't fault the logic on an individual level.

Individually fine, on mass, not so fine. I don't think anyone is going to disagree. 

I suspect the whole country had the same problem, not just essex and north Wales.  

The enforced personal prisons will be upon us soon. It's inevitable if other countries experiences are to be followed. On the plus side I'm looking forward to spending precious time with my family. 

K

That is hard to define.  A crowded day in the outdoors would feel practically deserted if translated to the high street and is extremely low risk in terms of virus transmission.  Compared to the irresponsibility of other everyday activities (say posting a birthday card to a friend), or stopping to buy a sandwich for lunch, a day in the hills is practically irrelevant.

As you say, at some point this will have to be enforced, but people heading to the outdoors in private transport is probably well down the list of things we need to be discussing.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on...

You still don't get it do you?

You will note that outdoor leisure facilities are not being forced to shut, and neither are takeaways/ post offices etc.  Don't you think we should be discussing that?  Perhaps you don't get it.

The problem is, we all know people as a collective are shit. For every one person, perhaps like you, who is able to act sensibly there are probably 5 who will pop into the local shop or petrol station, having come from 50 miles away.

Be careful referring to people collectively as shit. Many of these visitors will have come from towns and cities to do what we are encouraged to do all the time up until now. 

Unfortunately eventually this virus will spread across the whole nation and yes we will very likely go into complete lock down. 

These people are just trying to get that last moment of freedom in the hills which doesn't mean they are shit. Everyone will think of themselves first in most cases just like you might on other occasions. It's human nature unfortunately.

Are MarkJH's comments in contradiction of the link/government advice, other than about travel? The latter is presumably as most travel results in people mingling and crowding, which is not perceived as happening when an individual goes to straight to the hills, and does not pass Go/shops/fuel stations.

Psychological well-being will be enhanced by people going out and exercising, and thereby there will presumably be a better collective immune response to the viral threat. So this is not all a one-way street.

If MJH was consorting with people from Manchester and London and partying with them on the hill, then it might be a problem, but if he did not come within 10 metres of another being, it is unlikely that he has made things any worse.

Glad you had a nice ski but sorry pal(sic) you seem to be missing the point and making a lot of assumptions at the same time.To use an analogy may make it clear to you.When there is a fire do not play with matches and or petrol. You obviously have no idea of the seriousness of this situation we have found ourselves in and are seemingly oblivious to the fact that each and everyone of us has a major part to do our utmost to help prevent the spread of the virus. What part of that do you not understand? Your behaviour and attitude makes it abundantly clear that the UK Government need to enforce a full lockdown asap because the collective cannot be trusted due to the inability of individuals to use common sense and act accordingly.How serious can this get? Think Great Depression times ten, think Dunkirk going south big time and you will get the picture hopefully. Yes an assumption but a realistic one based on the very fragile society we all live in these days. 

Sorry. It seems that press release was indeed issued yesterday

But the main government page for advice is still being a lot woollier and even suggests going for a walk but keeping two meters apart. They need to sort their communication out.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-dist...

Non-essential travel. Stay at home. Some bits of the infrastructure are essential. We're behind Italy in our preparations. You going climbing isn't of any importance right now. I'm struggling to stay polite. 

"Everyone will think of themselves first in most cases just like you might on other occasions. It's human nature unfortunately"...a classic example of self projection. Fortunately there are a few who try to lead by example and wait for this..."actually put others first" I know that may sound completely ridiculous to you but trust me it happens and probably more frequently than you dare imagine.Idea! Give it a try..who knows you make help make a difference instead of the monotonous trodden path you are choosing to wander at present.

Whilst it is true that I am not an epidemiologist, my research is in infectious diseases and I have published in epidemiology journals.  I am not saying that I know better that the people who are guiding the UK response, but it is possible that I do have some appreciation of the issues.

That's going for a walk or run *in your local area*.  Even the French lockdown allows for that, and if they don't allow that then they're potentially stacking up far worse from mental health and obesity.

"You should neither drive nor use public transport unless going to purchase food or medicine" would be a good start in preventing mass outings to the beach as seem to have happened.

What's happening here (US), is a false sense of security in remote communities, believing they are safe already.

Here its community spread. NH likes to blame Mass residents, but it came into NH directly from Italy on at least a few occasions. One a medical resident who then worked and spread it locally. With a 1-2 week incubation time it spread rapidly in those counties before symptoms occurred weeks later. That area now has forecasted a huge demand for ICU beds nothing to do with outsiders visiting.

I'm not saying travel, I just think we should assume everyone has it, assume you have it, your neighbours etc. Although it maybe more prevalent in an urban area if you see more locals you can actually expose yourself to more risk than just the odd out of towner.

30 camper vans kicked off the Nevis Range car park.

https://twitter.com/Ianblackford_MP/status/1241437362628026369

Yeah that would probably be good advice. That wouldn't rule out climbing for me but doing so would probably be against the spirit of the thing.

A bit harsh matey. This weekend I was due to go to Scotland. I stayed home. So don't be so ready to judge.

Cheers, lockdown in the valley but we'll ride it through and not so bad as other places.

I think you're possibly getting bogged down in the specifics of your example, when the salient message is more or less 'Stay at home, and just go for a walk or cycle from your door'.

Im not saying I agree or disagree with the rest of your post but would like to point out that "confirmed cases" are irrelevant.

Currently only people in hospital are being tested...we have no idea how many infectious people are in the community. As many people are reported to be infectious whilst being a-symptomatic the only logical action is to treat yourself and others as if you are infected and keep at least 2 meters apart. 

OK, but I was asking why that was better in epidemiological terms.  The issue of large-scale immigration (e.g. campervans and the subsequent load on local healthcare) is an important one, but the idea that communities can be isolated from this (as suggested above) is unrealistic and dangerous.  Roadrunner6's post is really clear and important in this respect.  There is a reason why the government is talking about social distancing and individual isolation, and it is clearly guided by the science in this.

The risk of spreading disease is only part of the issue. Travelling further increases collective risks of accidents putting greater stress on resources. Increased numbers of people in an area increases pressure on health services in an area. Health service provision in any area is related to the population of an area. Increasing the number of people in a more sparsely populated area has a proportionally greater effect in terms of pressure on health services.

Well done, you made the right decision.I am not party to all the facts obviously and I am not judging anyone.The facts I do know that is a lot more people are going to die and our way of life is going to change for the worse.The situation we are in is a bit like watching your house on fire with your family inside and you have the choice of watching it burn, trying to put it out or pouring petrol on it. Sorry to be blunt but it just seems so many people are just not realising what we are facing. I know we all make mistakes or rash decisions for sure and or the margins are blurred but a rude awakening sometimes is what is needed alongside straight talking. On a personal note I do have enough understanding and respect for my fellow man, as just as I ,we all have failings and sometimes need to be advised, persuaded or told what is what.This is one of those times I am very sad to say.

Spot on original post.

This is not holiday time even if you are off work presently. Locals are concerned about their own health and infrastructure enough to not want you ‘here’. 
 

Stocking up in other peoples towns/small stores is rude and selfish.

Even a small traffic accident or medical emergency impacts on locals.

Please stay away

Went to nearby NT today. Car park full and plenty of elderly people out for a walk.

The NT have now changed from free use of all outdoor sites to all gardens and parks closed.

Lucky enough to live in a rural area, plenty of space for short walks for fitness, don't know how families in cities are expected to stay sane - especially with kids - for months with nowhere to walk or play. Quicker people lock down quicker it will be over.

Not just the hill busy today:

BBC News - Coronavirus: Seaside visitors defy social distancing advice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-51988877

Ha, excellent.

In a video posted on Facebook he called for caravan sites and businesses to close and people to remain at home.

"I was appalled to see as I drove home," he said.

If that isn't a perfect example of what's going on in this thread and society in general i don't know what is.

The 'locals' going about leaving their houses and then complaining about 'outsiders' doing the same is particularly amusing. "We don' want cha 'ere, ye towners". Ha, ha. Makes me want to jump in my car and go on a UK-wide rural tour

I’ve just heard a few comments, and read, that’s it is more about the threat of THE disease coming, as though it’s not already there. Testing is so poor it’s probably just not detected with any degree of accuracy. Certainly not enough to risk you and your families life by being in close proximity to others outside your household. Interesting that Shetland has lots, obviously a travel spot, but it was at least one of the best funded health systems around. Maybe they just test more.

in the US it’s basically outright xenophobia now, and gun sales have shot up. I really think we will see armed squirmishes yet as people believe they are fighting for their liberty. Crazy times.

We should have put in cordons already, to control region to region spread, starting with one around London and one at the Scottish border.

According to the Logbooks, 3285 climbs have been logged in the last day:
https://www.ukclimbing.com/logbook/latest_ascents.php?sorting=0
That's obviously just for people that log their routes on UKC and the actual figure is probably much higher.
Come on people, do the decent thing and sacrifice going climbing for a couple of months!


 

Lots of me, not much we.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/scottish-government-furious-a...

If the locals, stay local, they aren't aiding the spread. 

I live rurally and I certainly won't be driving to or visiting any cities for the foreseeable future. The opposite needs to be true. 

I'm not sure if people think Italy's position is fake news or something, but there is a shock coming for many. Spain and France will be in the same predicament in less than a week, the UK 2 weeks. 

The lead in period of an isolation measure to work and reduce the death rate must be at least 3 weeks. Folk need to be holed up inside until the end of April. Only one person leaving the house for food every few days. 

When hundreds are dying daily, it will be the same selfish people complaining the government didn't do enough, when really it's the population which is sealing it's fate just now. 

Not wishing to defend anyone and im not planning on travelling but there are still mixed messages to a degree. As far as i can see many campsites in the Lakes at least are open and, remarkably, youth hostels are still open.  That isnt discouraging people from travelling.

Hotels etc are allowed to stay open, but not the bars and restaurants. 
 

Suspect  part of some great psychology test  to determine broadly what people do in these circumstances and then they can measure the results. It may help gov over the next few weeks to determine what they do .

I live in the city centre, if I exercise local to home it's impossible to avoid people. If I drive 5-10km I can pick a spot where I'll see one person and their dog. Still not ideal but better than the black and white scenarios people are suggesting here. 

Some regions in Italy have banned sport and physical activity carried out individually, as existing measures aren't slowing the infection rate. 

I live in a city, out of necessity.  I send to a beach for a walk, though crowded I was well separated, by 10’s of meters.  You are lucky to have green spaces on ur doorstep I think all we want is some green as we walk alone.  This is also important for our well being.

Have a quick scroll through Instagram and you'll see plenty of posts by outdoor influencers telling people not to come to the Lakes followed by a post of "here's me doing something awesome in the Lakes".

There's no shortage of hypocrisy out there. I've argued on other posts that continuing to go climbing is not a huge deal for people with easy access to the crags. But I'm increasingly thinking that Nick Bullock's example of showing solidarity is for the best. At the very least don't throw your lifestyle in the faces of your 50,000 followers who can't get outside and then be surprised when they show up at your door.

In reply

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51991972

The next step.

Stay in. Do some phys at home. Every unnecessary trip outside give the virus a potential toe hold. Take inspiration from this:

https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/02/16/man-runs-marathon-apartment-china-fig...

(Note the date.)

The problem is that they don't know if they are or not - there is a 1 week lag to any results even if you are testing.

I would generally pay attention to what national Governments are doing - local Councils are much more likely to be reactionary rather than properly informed.

We can see the Wicklow mountains from our living room (in clear weather), but I think it would probably be more practical to stick to Western Snowdonia!

I do realise how lucky I am living where I do, and can't even begin to imagine what it must be like going through this in a city.

But the NHS in North Wales struggles with the influx of tourists under normal circumstances let alone with Covid19. We have the least number of critical care beds in the uk, and the UK has some of the lowest numbers in Europe. We also currently have some of the lowest numbers of confirmed Covid19 in the UK, please please help us to keep it that way, and stay away.

I'd say it's a perfect time for an over reaction. 

When this is all over there will be a backlash sure enough, plenty of blame being chucked about and little acceptance that the population themselves have been completely incapable of following the most basic restrictions to help themselves.

The government advice on travel has been woefully vague and badly publicised. I looked for the official advice just now and I'm still not sure what it is. 

It's buried in their main pages. And yes it's dire, considering they've been masters of comms for the last three years. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on...

"Public urged to stay at home and limit all but essential travel - people who can work from home should do so." 

"We also currently have some of the lowest numbers of confirmed Covid19 in the UK"

One clear fact everyone should be aware of - Covid 19 is EVERYWHERE. 

The 'numbers' mean nothing as testing ISN'T HAPPENING to any significant degree. People with symptoms are being sent home to isolate, rightly, but NOT TESTED. Even frontline NHS staff with symptoms are being sent home for 14 days without testing. 

I just wanted anyone who doesn't know this to absorb and build it into their outlook. 

There were 800 people in Italy yesterday whose well being ceased to exist. Perhaps people's desires aren't as important as national needs right now? Why should 1000s of nhs staff risk their health because someone else felt the need to leave a city and spread the virus a little more? There are pretty obvious reasons why China slowed the infection rate and it wasn't because they were leaving home for a bit of greenery! 

So I can walk from my home all around the city, alone, visit any shops which are open, spreading virus as I go, but can’t wander across some fields where all I’ll disturb a pheasant, where’s the logic in that.

The logic is that if you drive to the Lakes, Scotland or whatever you're increasing the population in the area where there is limited provision to treat Coronavirus.

For the time being, if you live in a town, driving to a random field and running up and down the public footpath might be more sensible than running up and down the road where there are people.

That’s what I’m planning, I have no intention of heading to wales, the lakes, Scotland etc

No. I've posted the link. Stay in. One person from each household to shop for a few days at a time. 

Stay local. Large cities have correspondingly large medical facilities. Rural areas don't. No one is saying people should openly walk around cities. Essential travel only, can't be so hard to grasp. 

If i lived in a city now. I'd just hole up, shopping just once a week. It's likely the only way collectively an italy type situation is preventable. Yes if be bored, lose fitness etc. But the sooner everyone does it, the faster any country will come out the other side. The longer a population waits to start a proper lock down , the longer the quarantine will last. 

You could take that view.  Or you could take the view that all you’re doing is making it more likely that you and those around you end up being locked down by gun wielding soldiers.

If you get in your car to do go and do some exercise or leisure activity I think you've probably made the wrong choice. 

So glad we have a garden, lots of spring jobs need going and I can see the lawn being worn bare as I try some improvised Cross fit style exercises to help keep up moralle and sanity.

Currently making a list of home and garden jobs for when the full lockdown begins. 

You try shopping once a week, good luck with that.  I had to cover 5 supermarkets yesterday.  I’m not doing that for me, I’m doing some (or trying to) to do some batch cooking for a friend who had a serious abdominal op and is back at home and finding this all a bit overwhelming.  

Good plan. I'm trying to stay magnanimous about some people's reaction; rather than reckless maybe it's just fear and scared. Make weird the new normal. Tim Peake was doing the rounds on social media promoting the Scouts website on things to do inside. Bloke knows a thing or to about not just stepping out for a bit! 

I'll admit I'm torn on this. Whilst I understand that people don't want 'outsiders' mingling in their communities, is there not a case for some?

Let's say I loaded up my hypothetical van with supplies, water, fuel, and head to the remote hills. I can go away for a week without having to visit a shop or fuel station. I have a toilet in my van. I don't need to see anyone. All I do is partake in very low risk activities (i.e hillwalking), whilst easily maintaining distance from anyone.

Following that scenario, we've got only a few options of possible contact -

- I injure myself hillwalking and need rescue (very very slim chance)

- My vehicle breaks down - I call breakdown which is likely less strained now due to less vehicles on the road. I don't have to come close to the recovery assistant.

Third point of contact could be actually developing symptoms. Now as a healthy adult, one could assume that the moment I felt ill, I would have ample time for either me or my partner (who I've already been living with) to drive back home.T

The majority of people are having to come into contact with a lot of people at supermarkets - now that food is unnecessarily scarce, they're having to make that trip numerous times a week. Many people are still being asked into work unnecessarily (myself included) and mixing with others. I don't see how a person in a remote van is actively contributing to the problem anymore than someone who isn't.

Am I missing something? Perhaps. And I'm open to re-evaluating my view.

I think it is just coming through (my wife has shouted upstairs) that authorities have closed all caravan sites in Wales, good, that's a start. 

That's grim for you and fair play on helping out. It doesn't make sense no, but it's the new normal. Stay sane. 

That's a different argument and it's farcical in many respects. The government announcements and a lack of foresight are as much to blame, as the shoppers.  Fortunately I sensed or gambled on what was coming and have been slowly building a reserve since January. I guess I'm a moderate prepper, I still have gel from when swine flu was potentially going to be much worse.  

Gel is neither here nor there.  Use soap and water

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on...

Stay in for all but essential travel - shopping. Don't try to balance that by rationalising you wanting to go out. There is no justification and of course it seems mad, but this is the new normal. 

Because it won't just be you doing this (I've witnessed it this week where I live, loads of people already have the same idea as you). 

What if the government lockdown where you live whilst you're away, you are stuck you where your are and become a potential patient in a rural health system that does not have the capacity for you.

Do you have a link for this? Thanks 

I’ll be out scavenging a bit later on, when they open.  Madness, but sad reflection on the selfishness of many of our fellow human beings.  I am also low on supplies, as I had to move out from my home (long story). Bottom line I/we we’ll stocked freezers/larder, but now I’m cut adrift at the worst time so I’m struggling for myself too.

I hear Pastuer talking to me. How did this thing start ? I hope at least some of the great minds are on to this. 

You can be sure that at some point later in time, some of the people who are quibbling about whether or not their own particular circumstances allow them to carry on climbing will look back and  complain that the government should have stepped in earlier and taken the decision out of their hands.

I've got nothing but all the best to you and your friend. 

Looking at the latest projections all? medical facilities are likely to be overwhelmed?

If you had a second home in a mountain area would you still stay?

I keep it in the car. I do hands, key fob, door handle, wallet  etc after I've shopped or tanked, before moving off.

Then normal soap etc. at home. 

Yeah and currently hot spots are cities. Containment is key.

No. I've friends in the dales who are struggling to shop because city folk are stocking their holiday cottages up. Many doctors practices are run by just a handful of people, 1 ambulance covering hundreds of sq miles and the nearest hospital an hour away. 

If I had a place in the hills as a refuge. It would have been stocked in 2019/ or January and I'd have been there in Feb exiting in June or July! 

No I'm looking for it, she had it come through from someone from a Wales tourism site, perhaps a fake news at present? Looks like there are just calls for it, seems I jumped the gun as well in posting.

Hi everyone,

I think this article/scientific analysis of the international developments is very compelling. It confirms what a lot of people are saying which is that the countries that keep to all the tried & tested measures have got a far better handle on this than the rest pretending to reinvent the wheel. 

The summary at the start says it all. The graphs comparing countries, cases, fatalities, splillover fatalities and negative to effective measures is very clear.

make the right choices.

There is a very good and detailed explanation  of this here:

https://link.medium.com/lLvfEnIG24

Thanks - I wasn’t trying to be funny, it’s just that I couldn’t find any more details about it.

If it hasn’t already happened then it surely will.

Look at the hospitalisation rates and then figure it out. 

It is inevitable that the Uk and all other countries will follow the only measures that work. Unfortunately at the moment far too slowly.

In our Mountain Rescue in Austria where I live now as a unwillingly disenfranchised European (we're 1-1.5 weeks ahead in terms of virus curve & measures) they ordered all members to stop any skitours or mountain activity apart from valley walking etc and this only with those cohabiting and safe. i.e. the same rules as for the all. 

The lessons from all other countries (negative/exponential & positive/effective) further along the curve have been clear for weeks now. Any delays and laissez-faire will be be dire and that is maths. 

This article says it all:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51970379 33

Good luck up there. 

The one terrible example Austria had (partly easier in hindsight, partly the greed/economy paradigm of the Tirolian lift companies and the decision-makers) was very hard for the present green-conservative central govt to shut down earlier, due to one of the disadvantages of the federal system - the regional governments are very powerful. 

They did in fact shut relatively early by international comparison but actually should have closed around 5-8.3 when cases of returning tourists with the virus were flagged. You guys have the benefit to learn from the mistakes or pretend you didn't know.

We live literally next to crags and alpine walls galore & I can skitour endless couloirs from my house, so yes it's hard but it's a choice.  

It's possible to anticipate, be proactive and save lives and the economy. It is inevitable anyway so is one day more jerking around/off on the crags gonna be worth it. 

Stay in your homes
Stay in your homes
Be off the streets by nightfall

Classic 

Stay off the moors.

And get orf MY land......

figure what out?

Isolating now is the most practical way of keeping hospitalisation rates down. 

apologies in advanceif I had not read all your earlier posts

Reading more or less through the discussion in this thread my own reaction is that quite  a lot of climbers are as selfish as much of the rest of the population in promoting their own interests as a special  case. As one living in lock-downed Paris where at least the government, for better or worse,  has the courage to impose unpopular measures for the greater good, the UK has a leader, who like Trump, is congenitally  incapable of putting his country before his own personal interests. So,instead of making unpopular decisions prefers to procrastinate  by issuing  vague and ineffective directives about pulling together and now once more invoking HM to intervene on his behalf  

And multiply yourself by a few thousand and what are the chances of a breakdown, accident, engine problem, food gone off, gas running out, etc, etc. 

The chances of these are not statistically likely for one person but as one person you are part of a herd of people who bump those statistics up to 'likely'. 

And then my paramedic friend from the village has to come and help you, my recovery business friend has to help you with the car, a colleague in National Tyres would have to fix your van. You'd have to stay somewhere if it's a big problem, etc, etc. 

No need for that.  If you do want to go for a run/walk locally, 3am would be a good time as nobody would be about.

Apart from the police and probably the armed forces asking you for your papers. 

Most people still haven't realised what is coming. Our habits will change, our economy will change, our nation will change.

And when its over, the waiter will present us with the bill. 

You're in a cheery mood! 

Probably right though. 

I fear there will soon be much more stringent restrictions if the large number of people ignoring the government advice and potentially spreading the virus far and wide don't stop. This will spoil it for everyone as at present we're allowed out if we're careful. Soon this may end and we'll all be singing to each other from our balconies and gardens as the only way to get fresh air. The Ramblers have a note in their advice which seems to say the right thing: "We are therefore urging walkers everywhere to avoid all non-essential travel and to stay local." 

BBC article "Coronavirus: 'Unprecedented scenes' on Welsh hills":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

"3,594 logged climbs added in the last day"

Ha! Cheers Roger. Best wishes and take care. 

We've survived before, we can do so again, (slightly more lengthy process this time...)

My point was that from the graphs linked above, it looks as though even if the current isolating recommendations are adhered to, it will not prevent healthcare in in the countryside being overwhelmed at some stage, by residual economic activity.

Yes, there is a good case on a number of levels from keeping out of your car and exploring from home on foot.

It might actually not be a bad idea to ban car and public transport use entirely unless you are a key worker or disabled or live more than say 2 miles from the nearest shop.  Walk to the shops and you can't panic buy.  Walk round your local area, no driving to honeypots.

This could be achieved by restricting access to fuel.

Here in the West coast of Scotland the beach carparks are rammed here today. We had the 3rd death in Scotland in our village last weekend.

Could you email me please?

rogwebb@btinternet.com 

So I feel guilty that I have just walked the dog from home through deserted fields for an hour. Saw 2 people as I left the village from a distance of 30m and just waved.

Overhead in the clear blue sky was a continuous stream of passenger airliners, all heading west, to the US I guess. There was probably an equal incoming stream following a different air corridor. 

Wonder if all those journeys are still necessary? 

......and then when things get back to 'normal', keep the ban on cars in place. The benefits would be well worth it.

If the locals stay local they are aiding the spread locally, in a community "with limited medical facilities" and "with a large elderly population". The thought that 'locals' are special and can leave the house because they are locals and only people in cities are infected is the kind of retarded attitudes that will decimate rural communities.

If you look for excuses of why rules/advice don't apply to you, you have to accept that other people can claim the same excuses, and that applies to everybody.

"I can go out of the house and drive to the crag without coming in contact with anybody", well, so can i. Why do you think it's ok for you to do so and not others? "Oh, but i'm special..."

It's up to you what you choose to do or not to do. But lay off the hypocrisy and be honest with yourself.

You don't get to draw the line at a point convenient to you, because if that's the way it goes then everyone will draw the line at a point convenient to them and then point fingers at those the other side of the line.

It's always everyone else at fault.

"I went to the beach/park/hills and it was full of people. I can't believe how selfish and irresponsoble people is"

Good luck rationalising that

resulting in panic buying of fuel?

I think a major point has been missed here. Obviously unnecessary travel risks the spread of the virus but the possible impact elsewhere has been mostly forgotten. 

For example the reported Llanberis MRT job yesterday on main wall. A team of 4 from SURREY had an incident requiring 2 teams and the helicopter. This putting unnecessary strain on the hospitals locally. There are limited facilities within all hospitals all over the country and they should not have to be burdened by people who should have stayed home. Regardless of experience, prep, equipment etc there remains a risk that anyone from elsewhere could have an incident requiring medical input taking it away from those locals who need it. Completely unnecessary, selfish and irresponsible. 

Further more, those travelling up will put additional strain on the struggling supply chain in North Wales taking items off the shelves that again locals have been struggling to get. I live on Anglesey and since Friday night the population has more than doubled in my town with people from Manchester, Liverpool, London and others. There have apparently been cases of second home owners trying to register at GP surgeries locally, these barely cover the local needs as it is.

I read yesterday that it is thought that only 1/4 of all adults are following the advice the government are giving. If the influx of visitors to North Wales and the other locations continue people will die whom otherwise might have survived. 

A friend (who doesn't post here and is unlikely to see this as he isn't a climber) said that to me yesterday.  I called him a massive hypocrite.  He didn't like it

It would have to be announced with immediate effect.

If you follow that logic, no one should be climbing in Wales, including the locals? 

Yes, as much as it pains me to say it. Even harder looking out of my window on a day like today at Snowdonia. 
It’s our responsibility to reduce the strain on the NHS in anyway we can and reducing risk should be part of it. 

and then everyone is going to have an argument with the garage trying to prove that they are a) a key worker b) live more than 2 miles from my nearest supermarket, etc =>  Chaos.

I think it’s ok to go climbing as long as you don’t travel far, not in a big group and stay away from others. Also do something super easy to keep the chance of you needing rescuing or medical attention to an absolute minimum.  Easy top roping for example.

Thats clearly not what this mob from Surrey have done so they need to have a proper word with themselves. It’s incidents like this which will have all outdoor activity banned. 

Stop non-essential travel.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on...

It's been done to death on the other thread. Stay at home. 

Scottish Government has told ferry companies to refuse people without a good reason to travel to the islands.

https://twitter.com/MathesonMichael/status/1241736648016236546

By saying stay local, I wasn't saying crowds locally are ok. You need to apply that ever rare attribute common sense. If everyone stayed local and well away from each other, things will in a month or so start to improve. 

No hypocrisy here, our kids orienteering training yesterday, 5km from home only about 10 kids, all running in the forest on their own, still cancelled. Tennis today, 6 kids, different courts on opposite sides of the net, cancelled. 

And now Scottish Mountain Rescue is saying:

https://www.facebook.com/scottishmountainrescue/posts/2805526199484854

I have to say, it makes it unclear whether it's okay to head out to local hills, staying on comfortable ground, staying safe and well equipped. I know that even best of us can still have an accident. 

I am going to guess that UKC members are more comfortable on hills and are better informed on Government/Mountain Rescue announcements. I have been following this over the weekend and it's still not crystal clear whether I could/should head to the hills for runs, which I have been doing a ton until recently.

I don't know how to make the link but there is a new item on BBC news that the French government has threatened to close the border with UK unless Johnson gets serious

Here in the Southern Highlands I've been watching caravans and camper vans heading North for the last two days....putting pressure on fragile rural supply chains and threatening very limited medical infrastructure. Not to mention potentially bringing the virus into communities that may so far be unaffected. It's time for everybody to stay at home or return home. Close all caravan parks and hotels/b&b's. And make random checks on motorists to restrict all non essential travel. 

Hopefully the ferry companies will do as they are told unlike those Scottish pubs that have refused to close 

I was saying something similar yesterday but it doesn't seem fair now. I could walk to the crag from my house but then I'd be doing similar to the hypocritical 'locals' wandering round crowded bits of countryside complaining about incomers doing exactly the same thing as they are. Maybe those of us lucky enough to live somewhere semi rural should show some solidarity with the city folk by not going climbing.

On TV now Boris is encouraging us to use the outdoors whilst following social distancing. People need to get there facts straight before posting.

Near home.  Not honeypots.

I don't want to have an argument, I am no expert. But that is not what he said, the scientists are saying if social distancing then the physical and mental benefits of exercising outdoors outweigh the very low risk of infection

If you can maintain distancing - which if you go to honeypots you can't.  Local ones too - for instance I don't doubt that Willen Lake in MK was probably heaving today, and yet the place is full of parkland, some of which barely sees a soul all day.

If you do the maths even Italy has only reached todays 0.088% of the population in total cases. China has a mass of zeros before it reaches 1% consider they have 1.475 billion. But do we know where it will end? 

What we need to do is slow down the spread as much as possible to allow the health care workers a fighting chance at coping. Italy has already talked of its heroes taking the death sentance because its over come with numbers and at such a low percent. In Scotland it is just establishing itself and I know first hand the health workers in our hospitals are in tears in the morning because they are so f###ing terrified at what they are being thrown into the front line for?

The 3rd person to die from this in Scotland I knew. Been in their home (years ago). It really hits home when that happens. I dont live in the city just a West coast village. 

The facts are in the government website. Remember this is Johnson that had to dial back yesterday from saying on Friday that he hoped to see his mother today. 

He won't be saying that soon. Give it 3 days maybe 5. 

Get to your home. Stay there. Come out for food and essential work. In a week all you will be thinking of is family, health and food.

It will pass but not for many months. And we will be changed and lose many on the way. 

The National Trust has now closed all it's parks and gardens because they becames so crowded on Saturday. Now nobody can go. There's a result.

I note lastest news says the youngest to die was 18 years old, so don't think you're invulnerable.

Follow the rules.

Mountain Rescue have released a statement - 

https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/90767025_35435...

If you decide to go climbing at this time:-

Stay close to home; go with only one other person; keep at least two meter distance ( including when doing buddy checks); use hand sanitizer between climbs; disinfect all equipment and wash ropes.     stick to all other government guides lines such as not touching your face. If the area is too busy to keep a distance; leave.

Oh, and of course climb well within your capability.

I do believe the government will increase restrictions because of people's inability to behave responsibly. We will only retain our liberty to go outside if we show we can be socially responsible.

Regarding unnecessary trips to A&E, I thought that by a long way, most accidents happen at home?

Yawn. Just knock it on the head. 

Whatever your feelings, some people will continue to do so... is it not better that they do so in the safest way possible?

Or avoid pressure on the health service,.and also bearing in mind the increased mortality rate, make tobacco sales illegal immediately?

Do you actually believe that people who have taken the conscious decision to disregard all the advice that is meant to keep this disaster in check are going to be bothered enough to wash their ropes after a day out?

Helpfully, the Daily Heil ran a nice piece on lovely 'boltholes' you might consider running to.

FFS.

If they are both an NHS worker and a climber they will.

I'm coming to the end of a 12 hour shift as a paramedic.  I've had to don PPE twice today. It's mothers Day and I didn't get to spend it with my 2 year daughter. My local area is heaving with tourists like a bank holiday.

I am fortunate to work part time, and I can afford to live quite happily off my part time salary. I don't need to work overtime.

Looking around me at all the people treating there impromptu time off work as a holiday, watching people popping in and out of their elderly relatives homes because it's mothers Day, seeing elderly couples shuffling along together out for a walk in the sunshine along with everyone else is beginning to piss me off. It certainly isn't motivating me to volunteer for any overtime. Why should i, nobody else is doing their bit to help the situation? 

Stress and poor moral is rife in the NHS at the moment, sticking a few chocolate bars on the windscreen of an ambulance is nice, but following government advice and not traveling unless essential, and properly social distancing would help motivate staff a lot more!

To follow up on my confusion, that's Walkhighlands advice:

The following advice is on all our walk pages and elsewhere:
- Stay in your local area
- Stay safe
- Practice social distancing (keep 2m from others)

BoJo suggested following social distancing rules in green areas and parks - does that make it okay? He also changed his mind on Mother's day arrangements in a day. 

It perplexes my mind. If no one can agree, it's up to your own judgement - but most of us aren't experts.

I appreciate the solidarity. I live in the east end of London. I won’t be be going climbing anywhere for a long, long time!

Feel for you.Unfortunately expecting the great unwashed to behave in a responsible manner is asking too much I am afraid to say.Please try to stay positive even if that is just in phases.Can not blame you for feeling down.I have had a few moments where my health relied on the NHS and when it is serious you actually realise what an amazing institution the NHS is and you realise how fortunate we are that it exists for us. I think (could be wrong ) that more people are acting responsible than those who are acting irresponsibly or at least that is what I hope at least. The main thing is for you to stay healthy above all else.

Because we spend most time there.  Not because it's a more dangerous environment than a crag.

I live in the Highland Council & NHS Highland Health Board area & will go for a walk in my local hills...so long as its well within my capabilities, I travel in my car & don't car share & keep away from others....social distancing & exercise...easy to do...

According to NHS Scotland data, Raigmore (the main Hospital for the NHS Highland Health Board area) has only 8 ICU beds, & in normal times these are 71% occupied, so that leaves just 3 beds free.....

Unfortunately there are currently 8 cases of Covid-19 in the NHS Highland Health Board area & those will all be moved to Raigmore ….so that's 5 ICU beds over the normal capacity....& yes they are "making" more ICU beds at Raigmore

If you do not live or work in the Highland Council, or NHS Highland Health Board area please do NOT come up here as tourists HAVE brought the virus up here resulting in a worker from a Loch Ness Gift shop in Drumnadrochit getting it & being one of the 8 in Raigmore!!!

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/highland-coronavirus-victim-warns-...

Absolutely pathetic isn't it. People need a sense of perspective.

Climbers love to talk about self-determination, personal choice and personal responsibility; how, at the sharp end, we alone make the decisions and we alone face the consequences. 

It's guff; pure fantasy. None of us live in a vacuum. Other people (and the environment) always face the consequences too, even if we don't see it. 

Many of our parents/grandparents/great-grandparents paid the ultimate price in service to the national interest.

We are being asked to sit on the sofa. 

In the best case, tens of thousands of our fellow citizens will die during this epidemic. Our health service will almost certainly be overwhelmed. Many front-line medical staff will fall ill. Some will die.  

It's easy to be glib about the elderly and unwell passing away when they are faceless numbers but this will affect young people too. Respiratory distress is also an appalling way to die. 

In the face of that, staying at/near home for a couple of months is hardly a large sacrifice...

Well done, what you are doing is appreciated by many but unfortunately there are many more in this country that think only of themselves. 

The most simple and basic precautions, as advised day after day, seem beyond much of the population, too inconvenient and don't apply to me attitude. 

For me it has been a wake up call to society as a whole and the lack of care for other people, but fortunately people like yourself do continue to care. Please keep going, some of us will need you.

Quarantine breaking campers be warned.  Nicola Sturgeon has now authorised the deployment of the national midge reserve.

https://twitter.com/weehalfpintt/status/1241805772213882882

Selfish, brain dead and unethical cretins. Hopefully Corona virus wipes these people out as opposed to some ones vulnerable relative who has followed the social isolation protocol. 

Midges aren't out in North Wales yet but there are locals taking things into their own hands. There was  a video going round yesterday of some locals visiting the popular illegal campervan spot in llanberis in the early hours of the morning and waking everyone up. 

They could do with getting a rota going to ensure maximum coverage of all venues and at regular intervals though the night!

I love The Curious Climber Podcast: Chatting with Hazel and Mina | What does Covid - 19 mean for climbers with Levi Yant (Virologist), let's play it!
https://www.podbean.com/ea/dir-292n6-860d29e

It's a bit of a novelty at the moment.  I wonder whether people will feel the same as Spring rolls into Summer/Autumn, the economy starts to fail, and we are still predicted a massive spike of cases in Winter.  

Would agree - and we need a strong economy if the NHS is to survive this crisis and remain adequately funded in the long term. 

A difficult balance needs to be struck at some point between an acceptable number of deaths now from this virus, versus an acceptable number of preventable deaths in the foreseeable future due to an prolonged lack of NHS and social care funding over the next 5-10 years (more austerity) should lockdown restrictions remain in place for too long, resulting in our economy being be permanently damaged from this.

A tricky and sensitive decision and not one that I would like to make.

The Sons of Glyndwr will be active a as gain soon, they never arrested anyone did they..

re the campervans, some just live in them full time. They need to be somewhere. I can’t remember the name of the local who had a wood stove in his, sky blue van, you’d see it in various lay-bys each morning on the drive to work.

The problem is that the number of deaths will very quickly become very very unacceptable if we dont do something drastic now.

The financial assistance packages the government have announced mean that our outlook has to change for the long term, and change now. The economy need not be permanently damaged; it will start to recover but from a lower base - however, dropping gdp by 20% only takes it back to approx the millenium, and we did ok then. Further austerity is i think now out of the question; we will have no choice but to move to a more "european socialist / centrist" type of taxation regime if we hope to manitain our emergency services etc at the levels that will be needed.

Intrigued to hear where your 'couple of months' has come from.

The only way that this will pass in even four months is in the nightmare scenario where we let the epidemic pass through unmitigated. Our current approach of a mixture of self-isolation and social distancing to try to slow and suppress the rate of spread could make this last over a year. The measures must remain in place for the entirety of the time if we are to minimise the overloading of the NHS.

Those campaigning for even local zero-contact outdoor exercise to be banned may begin to regret that if we're still under these measures by next spring. I agree with your sentiment but we mustn't kid ourselves over the timeframes here.

Number of new cases is down in Italy and Belgium.

Hmmm but where do we draw the line?  Surely if less deaths in the UK or making things easier for the NHS are the objectives (or in any way important) then we would have totally banned smoking years ago?  In the UK smoking still currently accounts for approx 80,000 early deaths plus countless other serious health issues costing the NHS billions every year.

Sorry to play devils advocate here - I totally realise that containing corona virus and preventing unnecessary deaths are important and I am not condoning ignoring official advice.  Yet if it is so important for us to prevent deaths now all of a sudden, important enough that we can't go about daily life as normal, important enough that it wrecks the economy and destroys peoples businesses and livelihoods in the process, then why are we not also grabbing the other low hanging fruits of early death prevention that have been staring us all right in the face for years? 

Otherwise you have to simply conclude that 80,000 early deaths a year, every year, from smoking are perfectly acceptable (where a simple smoking ban would solve this), whereas a few hundred deaths from Coronavirus (at present) are not acceptable.  I can't quite get my head around this!

Indeed, but they have gone for a different approach: lockdown. Which means that when they release the measures, allow non-essential travel abroad again, then coronavirus will spread back into Belgium, they will have another epidemic, and will have to lockdown again.

See how China managed to get new cases down to zero by locking down, and is currently beginning its second outbreak having released the measures. They are expecting a second large-scale epidemic.

Any country undergoing lockdown is realistically just entering a period of serial lockdowns over the coming years.

I'd suggest any country undergoing lockdown is just trying to stop the breakdown of their health service. Yes, this is not going to be 'done' in 12 weeks. 

Agreed. Maybe full lockdown to protect the health service during the first wave and then semi-lockdown or just very careful living until we get a vaccine? Although it will be at least a year until we get a vaccine we might have therapeutics available before then. 

I've no problem banning smoking, but a bit of a red herring; smoking deaths(and smoking ) is falling year on year.

Have you seen the progress of the cases / death graphs on www.worldometers.info? 

the few hundred deaths (few thousand, if you are italian or spanish) have happened in a couple of weeks. and are still a few hundred a day in those countries, with no end in sight.

The big difference between this and smoking is that smoking deaths aren't contagious so it isn't a multiplicative risk. And we don't pay tax on coronavirus :p And with this virus it's a double whammy as, when hospitals are full, people will die of other things which were otherwise preventable. 

Smoking is the victims choice, coronavirus isn’t.

In a few months, coronavirus deaths will eclipse those of smoking if we don’t act.

Who's the Philip Morris or BAT for C-19?

Something like this sounds the best solution to me. Spend the full lockdown increasing the number of ICU beds by at least an order of magnitude, and maintain isolation of at-risk groups during 'semi-lockdown'. 

That would have been the ideal solution; but, because the government delayed for so long, even with a total lockdown now, the NHS is going to go under in April.

Smoking could easily be completely banned without any significant impact on society as a whole.  Measures currently employed to control Coronavirus destroy the economy and impact significantly the lives of everyone.

Smoking long term virtually guarantees serious chronic health problems later in life, and an earlier than normal death.  Coronavirus does not for most people.

Smoking related health conditions cost the NHS £1,900 per smoker, per year.  That impacts the health of everyone who doesn't smoke since a very significant proportion of the NHS budget gets used up treating smokers, meaning that healthcare for everyone and their chance of early death is far inferior as a result.

In the last 10 years there have been 800,000 preventable early deaths due to smoking in the UK.  Do we think Coronavirus will top this over the next few years?

No one fully knows, but food for thought that's all.

You can't compare smoking and covid 19 because, crucially, smoking isn't contagious so it isn't a multiplicative risk like Covid-19 is: smoking won't grow exponentially and cause a sudden wave which shuts down hospitals. Hospitals being overwhelmed also means that people die of other things which they other wise wouldn't.

And smokers pay a lot of tax to offset their healthcare costs (it's still stupid though). And the best epidemiologists estimated that doing nothing (not that you propose this) would lead to 500 000 deaths in one year not ten so the potential is there.

Smoking is a choice. Coronavirus isn’t.

Do the wrong thing and coronavirus could result in that many deaths - directly and through overwhelmed healthcare for everyone - in 3 months.

This is not food for thought in my opinion.  It’s smoke and mirrors.

As an extra point about the sheer length of time this is expected to last. I see the official advice is still (e.g. Chief Medical Officer for Scotland a few minutes ago) to exercise outside, but totally avoid contact with non-household members while doing so. 

Presumably this is because government scientists have modelled the effects on strain on the NHS of 66 million people not exercising outdoors for 18 months.

If smoking killed large numbers of people other than those who smoke it would definitely be completely banned.

2nd answer - whoever said 80k deaths a year from smoking are acceptable? There is a continuous education campaign, its taxed to the hilt to pay for the problems it causes, ans is a stable predicatable number. Covid 19 deaths are not what you could call stable. In italy they are running at 216k annualised. 

I beg to differ. Well, ok, it could be banned, but would that alter smokers behaviour, given the different channels of supply currently available just to evade paying duty? And before you suggest criminalising it (tobacco), I'll just say "cannabis".

But it does, indirectly, by absorbing a significant proportion of NHS funds away from other areas of treatment meaning that healthcare for everyone is significantly poorer than it could be.

If anyone reading this for a minute thought there was any other course of action than the one the government has taken and also thought that the general populace had the right to make up there own minds about what they do ,how they do it, where they do it and when they do it in this current crisis, then they are complete and utter .... (try the c word if you are struggling). The totally irresponsible and thoughtless behaviour of many thousands of arrogant and or stupid morons last weekend ,who have risked the lives of others and possibly led to the needless deaths of others is shameful. You know who you are and if you do not know what you are then I will spell it for you.B E L L E N D S.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. You make a number of fair points. I don't have a good source for my couple of months, merely a hunch. I guess that we will see 6-12 weeks of restriction now to try and restrict the number of deaths from the first wave to a politically/socially acceptable level. But I think after that wave there will be successive periods of relaxing and tightening measures to 'control' case numbers without entirely destroying the economy. As you say, this dynamic could continue for a year or so, although personally I am optimistic it will be less than that. 

Humans are generally pretty awful, but we do learn and innovate. This virus caught most countries with their pants down, but having cottoned on, we are now mobilising significant resources to deal with it.

A vaccine is the long game but in the meantime health services are building up their preparedness. There are clinical trials for possible anti-virals on the go. Antibody tests are being developed for wide spread surveillance so we can work out who is already immune. The stability of the virus on surfaces is being studied so we can implement measures to reduce contact transmission such as painting door handles with antiviral copper paints.

All this is happening at the same time as 'herd immunity' develops. I am genuinely optimistic that in the longer term we will be able to manage with less stringent social distancing and that growing political pressure to relax restrictions will ensure that happens.

Who knows. Maybe this comment will age badly! 

Good heart, yes we all have to abide the policy and stay home to avoid getting the virus. 

I live in Llanberis, I'm a climber, I'm on the local MR team.

If I can stop climbing on crags that I can walk or cycle to in 10 minutes, i think everyone else can.

If my partner can continue to go to work as a doctor in the local hospital, putting herself (And therefore me) at significant risk, I reckon you can all stay at home for awhile.

If my mum, nearly 70 with an auto immune condition, can lock herself away for a few months, forgoing her usual bi weekly 15 mile ramble, then I think you could pass on your day trip to Wales.

You are not been asked to do much other  than to stay at home. Quite simple really.

Rory

Stories and photos cropping up on Facebook of notes left by the police on car widescreens of people who’ve driven somewhere quiet for a walk.  The notes state that one should not use a vehicle to travel to a location for exercise.

So perhaps people will soon be arguing their case with the police not on UKC forums.  

I thought this would be of interest to anyone who still thinks it's ok to go and climb in the Peak or Yorkshire. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/uk-police-use-drones-and-road...

Except that, rightly or wrongly, the new legislation permits you to travel for the purpose of exercising.

Yes the situation does appear to be a mess in terms of government advice, different police forces different interpretations there of, different individual interpretations there of, the new legislation and what is actually needed from the people.  With many people not prepared to err on the side of caution (*) it seems likely we’re going to get some more severe legislation.  

(*) if there’s one time in my lifetime that being over cautious was the best approach, now is it.