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The Met Office have announced some new features in their regional mountain weather forecasts - a service used widely by climbers and walkers.
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In reply to UKC News:
Never used it in my life & don't know anyone who has ... always used the MWIS.
> a service used widely by climbers and walkers.
Never used it in my life & don't know anyone who has ... always used the MWIS.
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In reply to zebidee:
Always use it, constantly glued to it...might have a problem actually! Don't know anyone who uses MWIS... :P
> Never used it in my life & don't know anyone who has ... always used the MWIS.
Always use it, constantly glued to it...might have a problem actually! Don't know anyone who uses MWIS... :P
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In reply to zebidee: I have used it. Looks like they've basically refreshed the format rather than much additional information (although there is a little extra).
Looking at their Lakes page today I was especially encouraged to read "Snow-covered terrain will increase the effect of harmful UV rays"
A quick further check showed this to be a bit of blurb used across all mountainous regions - so be on the lookout for snow in the Peak District, Brecon Beacons, etc!!! Sloppy use of information - not impressed.
Looking at their Lakes page today I was especially encouraged to read "Snow-covered terrain will increase the effect of harmful UV rays"
A quick further check showed this to be a bit of blurb used across all mountainous regions - so be on the lookout for snow in the Peak District, Brecon Beacons, etc!!! Sloppy use of information - not impressed.
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In reply to UKC News:
I truly amazed at that. These days, with the internet, it's just so easy to check the forecast. There are loads of free apps for weather forecasts, not just the Met Office one (which mostly doesn't work for me anyway). Windows 10 comes complete with a weather forecast program. I see people walking round, glued to their smartphone screens, very surprised more don't check the weather. Maybe it's a climber thing?
> Just 20% say that 'checking the weather' is their top priority before heading out to participate in an outdoor activity.
I truly amazed at that. These days, with the internet, it's just so easy to check the forecast. There are loads of free apps for weather forecasts, not just the Met Office one (which mostly doesn't work for me anyway). Windows 10 comes complete with a weather forecast program. I see people walking round, glued to their smartphone screens, very surprised more don't check the weather. Maybe it's a climber thing?
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In reply to stp:
Surveys are like statistics, depending on 'how' and 'who' you ask the question can 'skew' the results. Here the Met Office has got the answer they wanted; which justifies and promotes the extra expenditure on the new format. In the process it once again makes climbers and walkers look 'stupid' to the general public.
The forecast is still weak, given how large the areas covered are in Scotland; particularly the NW & SW highlands.
Another worrying aspect is that in common with MWIS, the Met Office is informing us of the affect of the weather on 'us', rather than limiting themselves to the actual 'forecast'. This reduces the amount of actual forecast information in the available format. It also plays into the hands of those in the media that want to make 'easy' copy from mountain related accidents, whom can then say 'the met office predicted difficult conditions'....etc. You wait till the winter.....
I don't want to be 'lectured' about the affect, I can use my own judgement as to if the weather and my objective for the day are likely to be viable.
Surveys are like statistics, depending on 'how' and 'who' you ask the question can 'skew' the results. Here the Met Office has got the answer they wanted; which justifies and promotes the extra expenditure on the new format. In the process it once again makes climbers and walkers look 'stupid' to the general public.
The forecast is still weak, given how large the areas covered are in Scotland; particularly the NW & SW highlands.
Another worrying aspect is that in common with MWIS, the Met Office is informing us of the affect of the weather on 'us', rather than limiting themselves to the actual 'forecast'. This reduces the amount of actual forecast information in the available format. It also plays into the hands of those in the media that want to make 'easy' copy from mountain related accidents, whom can then say 'the met office predicted difficult conditions'....etc. You wait till the winter.....
I don't want to be 'lectured' about the affect, I can use my own judgement as to if the weather and my objective for the day are likely to be viable.
Post edited at 12:15
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In reply to UKC News:
Thanks for this. Those stats do seem a bit out to me though. I wonder who they targeted for this survey, as I don't recall being asked yet use the met office website more than any other before I head into Mountainous areas of the UK. I've always found their regional mountain forecasts too woolly though and always go for the mountain specific forecasts depending on target, e.g. "http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcmjghxpx" Also use there surface pressure charts and UK wide forecast map to get a more general picture of whats happening.
Thanks for this. Those stats do seem a bit out to me though. I wonder who they targeted for this survey, as I don't recall being asked yet use the met office website more than any other before I head into Mountainous areas of the UK. I've always found their regional mountain forecasts too woolly though and always go for the mountain specific forecasts depending on target, e.g. "http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcmjghxpx" Also use there surface pressure charts and UK wide forecast map to get a more general picture of whats happening.
In reply to Mark Collins:
It depends entirely on how they asked the question. Assuming it was a "which of the following is your top priority" type question, if the options were a) check weather forecast, b) trim nose hair, c) tweet selfie, d) learn Portuguese then 20% would seem a bit small. If they were a) check weather forecast b) read route description c) put boots on d) pack lunch then it would be more understandable.
> Thanks for this. Those stats do seem a bit out to me though.
It depends entirely on how they asked the question. Assuming it was a "which of the following is your top priority" type question, if the options were a) check weather forecast, b) trim nose hair, c) tweet selfie, d) learn Portuguese then 20% would seem a bit small. If they were a) check weather forecast b) read route description c) put boots on d) pack lunch then it would be more understandable.
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In reply to ScraggyGoat:
> The forecast is still weak, given how large the areas covered are in Scotland; particularly the NW & SW highlands.
Did you know you can put many mountain names in to the Met Office Weather site and if you don't get a forecast for that peak will often get offered a nearby one? I use this feature a great deal more than their mountain weather or MWIS. It gives me a differentiated forecast. E.g. The forecast for Stob Dearg of Buachaille Etive More and Sgorr Nam Fiannaidh on Aonach Eagach are often fairly different.
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In reply to AlH:
Yes I did, the question then becomes is:
a) Is this forecast interpolated from the Met Offices base forecast (which used to be based on a sea level datum, I don't know whether it still is) from the nearest forecast nodes (?Fort William, Rannoch? ect) where ever they may be.
or
b) Extrapolated from its mountain forecast
I could never work out which and decided they were predominantly a work of modelling fiction
Yes I did, the question then becomes is:
a) Is this forecast interpolated from the Met Offices base forecast (which used to be based on a sea level datum, I don't know whether it still is) from the nearest forecast nodes (?Fort William, Rannoch? ect) where ever they may be.
or
b) Extrapolated from its mountain forecast
I could never work out which and decided they were predominantly a work of modelling fiction
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In reply to zebidee:
MWIS is not much good if you're out in part of the country not covered by MWIS. It's only recently expanded to cover the Brecon Beacons - before that Met Office was the only place to go for a decent mountain forecast for the area.
MWIS is not much good if you're out in part of the country not covered by MWIS. It's only recently expanded to cover the Brecon Beacons - before that Met Office was the only place to go for a decent mountain forecast for the area.
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In reply to ScraggyGoat:
Definitely (a). If it gives different forecasts for Buachaille Etive Mor and Aonach Eagach then that's not because of a detailed knowledge of local weather systems, but because they are at slightly different altitudes.
Definitely (a). If it gives different forecasts for Buachaille Etive Mor and Aonach Eagach then that's not because of a detailed knowledge of local weather systems, but because they are at slightly different altitudes.
In reply to ScraggyGoat:
That brings it in line with MWIS and is a big improvement on covering the whole of the west in one.
I agree to some extent, but to some less experienced people, being told that wind of x mph makes walking difficult might be useful, and wind chill is a pretty standard measure of how cold it will feel.
> The forecast is still weak, given how large the areas covered are in Scotland; particularly the NW & SW highlands.
That brings it in line with MWIS and is a big improvement on covering the whole of the west in one.
> Another worrying aspect is that in common with MWIS, the Met Office is informing us of the affect of the weather on 'us', rather than limiting themselves to the actual 'forecast'.
I agree to some extent, but to some less experienced people, being told that wind of x mph makes walking difficult might be useful, and wind chill is a pretty standard measure of how cold it will feel.
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In reply to AlH:
Yep, I also use this function more than general forecast for East/West Highlands.
Stopped using MWIS about 2 or 3 years ago, too optimistic from my experience....
Stuart
Yep, I also use this function more than general forecast for East/West Highlands.
Stopped using MWIS about 2 or 3 years ago, too optimistic from my experience....
Stuart
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In reply to Stuart the postie:
I've always have mwis down as too pessimistic. I sometimes wonder if it was a way of keeping folk off the hills.
I've always have mwis down as too pessimistic. I sometimes wonder if it was a way of keeping folk off the hills.
Post edited at 15:57
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In reply to Welsh Kate:
Whereas the Met Office was correspondingly poor for the main mountain areas in the country - i.e. north of the border. Consequently the MWIS was funded by sportscotland and does focus on those areas.
From the MWIS About Us page http://www.mwis.org.uk/about-us :
> MWIS is not much good if you're out in part of the country not covered by MWIS. It's only recently expanded to cover the Brecon Beacons - before that Met Office was the only place to go for a decent mountain forecast for the area.
Whereas the Met Office was correspondingly poor for the main mountain areas in the country - i.e. north of the border. Consequently the MWIS was funded by sportscotland and does focus on those areas.
From the MWIS About Us page http://www.mwis.org.uk/about-us :
> Since 2007, sportscotland - the national agency for sport in Scotland - has funded MWIS to produce the 5 Scottish forecast areas. In September 2016, sportscotland committed to funding MWIS for a minimum of three years. The Scottish forecasts are also funded by individual sponsorship of the forecast pages by organisations within the mountaineering community.
>
> The 4 other English and Welsh forecasts are produced with limited sponsorship funding that does not fully cover their production. However, there is an element of overlap in the data collection and writing of the Scottish, English and Welsh forecasts, meaning that all 8 forecasts are produced together.
>
> The 4 other English and Welsh forecasts are produced with limited sponsorship funding that does not fully cover their production. However, there is an element of overlap in the data collection and writing of the Scottish, English and Welsh forecasts, meaning that all 8 forecasts are produced together.
In reply to Mike-W-99:
I've noticed that too - particularly in the winter. Often forecasting all sorts of terrible weather and then it being glorious weather all day.
> I've always have mwis down as too pessimistic. I sometimes wonder if it was a way of keeping folk off the hills.
I've noticed that too - particularly in the winter. Often forecasting all sorts of terrible weather and then it being glorious weather all day.
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In reply to Ramblin dave:
Great interpretation. Thanks. So with that in mind their figure of 20% seems completely pointless.
Great interpretation. Thanks. So with that in mind their figure of 20% seems completely pointless.
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In reply to Mike-W-99:
Pessimistic yes, that's what I meant! Basically the weather wasn't doing what they'd said it would, forecasts often wrong!!!!
Stuart
Pessimistic yes, that's what I meant! Basically the weather wasn't doing what they'd said it would, forecasts often wrong!!!!
Stuart
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In reply to Simon Caldwell:
Not sure I agree. The differences I see are more about timing and amount of rainfall and on the fairly regular occasions I visit the Glen seem to be pretty accurate. Am i right in saying that the Met Office's latest computer upgrade allowed for forecasts to 1500m resolution? The forecasts also agree with their "Will it rain today" Specialists forecast which I find very useful at home here in Lochaber.
> Definitely (a). If it gives different forecasts for Buachaille Etive Mor and Aonach Eagach then that's not because of a detailed knowledge of local weather systems, but because they are at slightly different altitudes.
Not sure I agree. The differences I see are more about timing and amount of rainfall and on the fairly regular occasions I visit the Glen seem to be pretty accurate. Am i right in saying that the Met Office's latest computer upgrade allowed for forecasts to 1500m resolution? The forecasts also agree with their "Will it rain today" Specialists forecast which I find very useful at home here in Lochaber.
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In reply to ScraggyGoat:
I agree with Mr Caldwell. Indeed, I don't think option (b) is actually a different option because I don't think the Met Office run mountain-area specific models on a daily basis. They are much more likely to run mountain-area specific forecasts in a 'research' mode (was 300 m resolution a few years back), get a wad of data, and then parametrize the output from the operational 1.5 km resolution forecast (e.g on sunny days add 1 degree to model output for Ben Nevis, but minus 2 degrees for Scafell).
Edit: Actually, some further research suggests that (as of 2013) forecasts for wind in these areas are made operationally at 1 km resolution every 6-hours, using the area-specific 3DVOM (3D-Velocities Over Mountains) model. Not sure how this may then effect temperature and precipitation predictions.
I agree with Mr Caldwell. Indeed, I don't think option (b) is actually a different option because I don't think the Met Office run mountain-area specific models on a daily basis. They are much more likely to run mountain-area specific forecasts in a 'research' mode (was 300 m resolution a few years back), get a wad of data, and then parametrize the output from the operational 1.5 km resolution forecast (e.g on sunny days add 1 degree to model output for Ben Nevis, but minus 2 degrees for Scafell).
Edit: Actually, some further research suggests that (as of 2013) forecasts for wind in these areas are made operationally at 1 km resolution every 6-hours, using the area-specific 3DVOM (3D-Velocities Over Mountains) model. Not sure how this may then effect temperature and precipitation predictions.
Post edited at 22:53
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In reply to Simon Caldwell:
That's not correct; it's because the met office model the weather over the uk on a fairly granular grid now (about 1km2?) and of course local topology etc feeds into that model. When you put a mountain summit into the search it gives you the forecast for that grid area, its not just doing a simplistic altitude adjustment.
This part of the met office forecast now seems to be very accurate most of the time if you're in the next-48h window.
> Definitely (a). If it gives different forecasts for Buachaille Etive Mor and Aonach Eagach then that's not because of a detailed knowledge of local weather systems, but because they are at slightly different altitudes.
That's not correct; it's because the met office model the weather over the uk on a fairly granular grid now (about 1km2?) and of course local topology etc feeds into that model. When you put a mountain summit into the search it gives you the forecast for that grid area, its not just doing a simplistic altitude adjustment.
This part of the met office forecast now seems to be very accurate most of the time if you're in the next-48h window.
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In reply to UKC News:
Hi all,
Thanks for the comments so far. Any feedback is very welcome and this can be feed into any future updates to help improve our mountain products further. You can either reply directly here, or there are various ways to contact the Met Office here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact
One of the best ways of improving the accuracy of a forecast is through verification against actual results. With the UK’s mountains so data sparse verification of our mountain forecasts is very difficult, so any feedback on the accuracy of our forecasts would be much appreciated.
If you have any questions I’ll do my best to answer them, or try and find an answer where I don’t know, although may not be able to reply straight away.
Regards,
Mike
Senior Operational Meteorologist at the Met Office
Hi all,
Thanks for the comments so far. Any feedback is very welcome and this can be feed into any future updates to help improve our mountain products further. You can either reply directly here, or there are various ways to contact the Met Office here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact
One of the best ways of improving the accuracy of a forecast is through verification against actual results. With the UK’s mountains so data sparse verification of our mountain forecasts is very difficult, so any feedback on the accuracy of our forecasts would be much appreciated.
If you have any questions I’ll do my best to answer them, or try and find an answer where I don’t know, although may not be able to reply straight away.
Regards,
Mike
Senior Operational Meteorologist at the Met Office
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In reply to climbwhenready:
I find it almost impossible to believe that a forecast can meaningfully differentiate between two mountaintoips of the same altitude up to 2 days (or even 2 hours!) ahead.
One of the things I like about MWIS is that it gives me the impression (rightly or wrongly) of the input of some genuine human mountain specific knowledge and does not attempt to give such unrealistic detail.
> That's not correct; it's because the met office model the weather over the uk on a fairly granular grid now (about 1km2?) and of course local topology etc feeds into that model. When you put a mountain summit into the search it gives you the forecast for that grid area, its not just doing a simplistic altitude adjustment.
> This part of the met office forecast now seems to be very accurate most of the time if you're in the next-48h window.
I find it almost impossible to believe that a forecast can meaningfully differentiate between two mountaintoips of the same altitude up to 2 days (or even 2 hours!) ahead.
One of the things I like about MWIS is that it gives me the impression (rightly or wrongly) of the input of some genuine human mountain specific knowledge and does not attempt to give such unrealistic detail.
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In reply to UKC News:
I've used all above forecasts and features in combination...then related that to terrain I knew in relation with hill reports and pics posted (all for winter purposes). I then transfer this to my own knowledge and that gets me a fairly reliable conditions forecast- probably 75% reliable.
That's obviously mainly for winter climbing purposes but also works for rockclimbing (like last weekend).
Those that are concerned for their safety on the hill will no doubt read other things in the same forecast.
Any improvement and tweak is welcome, should run for a time and then maybe revert back if unsuccessful after a year and feedback?
As a punting weekend warrior, the internet based forecast has been invaluable to my success rate.
I have NO idea how anyone got anything done, let alone most of the uber classics I lust after, in the olden days?!? Either they were out all the time with a small success rate, used witchcraft with a high success rate or were just plain lucky!
I've used all above forecasts and features in combination...then related that to terrain I knew in relation with hill reports and pics posted (all for winter purposes). I then transfer this to my own knowledge and that gets me a fairly reliable conditions forecast- probably 75% reliable.
That's obviously mainly for winter climbing purposes but also works for rockclimbing (like last weekend).
Those that are concerned for their safety on the hill will no doubt read other things in the same forecast.
Any improvement and tweak is welcome, should run for a time and then maybe revert back if unsuccessful after a year and feedback?
As a punting weekend warrior, the internet based forecast has been invaluable to my success rate.
I have NO idea how anyone got anything done, let alone most of the uber classics I lust after, in the olden days?!? Either they were out all the time with a small success rate, used witchcraft with a high success rate or were just plain lucky!
2
In reply to stvey:
I do, but it's not always accurate, unless predicting rain!
> Always use it, constantly glued to it...might have a problem actually! Don't know anyone who uses MWIS... :P
I do, but it's not always accurate, unless predicting rain!
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
Hi Mike, I probably wouldn't mind dropping a line each time I'm out but where would you want this? If we all did it, your normal email would be inundated. Also, would you have the capacity to check each mail? And how would you trust what the posters say- one person's expedition in a gale is someone else's breezy dander up a hill!
> Hi all,
> One of the best ways of improving the accuracy of a forecast is through verification against actual results. With the UK’s mountains so data sparse verification of our mountain forecasts is very difficult, so any feedback on the accuracy of our forecasts would be much appreciated.
> Mike
Hi Mike, I probably wouldn't mind dropping a line each time I'm out but where would you want this? If we all did it, your normal email would be inundated. Also, would you have the capacity to check each mail? And how would you trust what the posters say- one person's expedition in a gale is someone else's breezy dander up a hill!
3
1
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
for eg, Wettest place in UK was often Capel Curig, but as I lived in Nant Peris I can confirm that it was consistently wetter. Even when dry and sunny at Capel, it would often be raining in Nant! conversely when very cold, it would be colder at Capel than Nant so a lot of local variation in any forecast. However you don't need to forecast for Scotland as I know it will be raining, or snowing, and mostly windy to boot!
for eg, Wettest place in UK was often Capel Curig, but as I lived in Nant Peris I can confirm that it was consistently wetter. Even when dry and sunny at Capel, it would often be raining in Nant! conversely when very cold, it would be colder at Capel than Nant so a lot of local variation in any forecast. However you don't need to forecast for Scotland as I know it will be raining, or snowing, and mostly windy to boot!
In reply to climbwhenready:
I'll try and clear up some details of where the winds for our individual summit forecasts, such as those found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-map/northwest-highlands... come from.
You are correct that they are based off a grid system, with an operational resolution of 1.5km across the UK, blending into courser resolution models after the first 48 hours, but with extra processing to adjust for the exact altitude of the summit.
To the poster who referred to the 3DVOM model, this is used to model standing waves in the atmosphere created as the air flows over mountains within a stable airflow (often seen as 'herringbone' clouds). This particular model is not incorporated into the summit winds, however these standing waves or mountain waves are accounted for and can have a significant effect on the winds, with strong downslope winds to the lee of summits. The ridges coming down to the north of the Cairngorm plateau can often be particularly prone to this in a southerly wind.
I'll try and clear up some details of where the winds for our individual summit forecasts, such as those found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-map/northwest-highlands... come from.
You are correct that they are based off a grid system, with an operational resolution of 1.5km across the UK, blending into courser resolution models after the first 48 hours, but with extra processing to adjust for the exact altitude of the summit.
To the poster who referred to the 3DVOM model, this is used to model standing waves in the atmosphere created as the air flows over mountains within a stable airflow (often seen as 'herringbone' clouds). This particular model is not incorporated into the summit winds, however these standing waves or mountain waves are accounted for and can have a significant effect on the winds, with strong downslope winds to the lee of summits. The ridges coming down to the north of the Cairngorm plateau can often be particularly prone to this in a southerly wind.
8
In reply to French Erick:
When I started winter climbing in the early eighties, I think I paradoxically possibly got more done, because we just went anyway and climbed more often in crap weather or conditions. More recently it's sometimes seemed all too easy to look at weather forecasts and condition reports and decide to leave it for another day - but this could well just be me being old and soft and not really up for it.
The Mountainline (I think it was called) phone forecast was a major development. Lots of time spent in phone boxes in places like Fort William and Aviemore frantically cramming coins in!
> I have NO idea how anyone got anything done, let alone most of the uber classics I lust after, in the olden days?!? Either they were out all the time with a small success rate, used witchcraft with a high success rate or were just plain lucky!
When I started winter climbing in the early eighties, I think I paradoxically possibly got more done, because we just went anyway and climbed more often in crap weather or conditions. More recently it's sometimes seemed all too easy to look at weather forecasts and condition reports and decide to leave it for another day - but this could well just be me being old and soft and not really up for it.
The Mountainline (I think it was called) phone forecast was a major development. Lots of time spent in phone boxes in places like Fort William and Aviemore frantically cramming coins in!
Post edited at 12:28
5
In reply to French Erick:
Hi Erick,
Thanks for your reply and your offer to drop a line. Something like this could potentially be a very useful resource. Obviously reports not from official observation stations would need to be treated with caution, but in such data sparse areas, having a general indication would be better than nothing.
As for where to send it to, for general comments on the forecast dropping a line through the Contact Us page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact is probably the best route at the moment.
There is the Weather Observations Website - WOW for submitting unofficial weather observations https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/
You can enter a quick basic weather observation, or give a more detailed report with the option to upload a photo and leave comments (if registered).
Cheers,
Mike
Hi Erick,
Thanks for your reply and your offer to drop a line. Something like this could potentially be a very useful resource. Obviously reports not from official observation stations would need to be treated with caution, but in such data sparse areas, having a general indication would be better than nothing.
As for where to send it to, for general comments on the forecast dropping a line through the Contact Us page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact is probably the best route at the moment.
There is the Weather Observations Website - WOW for submitting unofficial weather observations https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/
You can enter a quick basic weather observation, or give a more detailed report with the option to upload a photo and leave comments (if registered).
Cheers,
Mike
5
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
I'm out in Lochaber typically 100+ days a year. Would information such as 'warmer/colder', 'windier/less windy', 'morel's precipitation' be of use?
I'm out in Lochaber typically 100+ days a year. Would information such as 'warmer/colder', 'windier/less windy', 'morel's precipitation' be of use?
In reply to AlH:
Hi Al,
If you felt it was slightly warmer/colder, windier/less windy etc than forecast then no, there will typically be large variations across a small areas in the mountains with the mountain forecast giving a general picture. And obviously, there will often be drastically different conditions within deep coires/cwms and close up to large rock faces.
However, if you felt the forecast was considerably out for more open locations, then this is something that would be useful to know. The more detail you could provide the better (such as wind direction, height of cloud bases), although I appreciate these can be difficult to estimate.
Cheers,
Mike
Hi Al,
If you felt it was slightly warmer/colder, windier/less windy etc than forecast then no, there will typically be large variations across a small areas in the mountains with the mountain forecast giving a general picture. And obviously, there will often be drastically different conditions within deep coires/cwms and close up to large rock faces.
However, if you felt the forecast was considerably out for more open locations, then this is something that would be useful to know. The more detail you could provide the better (such as wind direction, height of cloud bases), although I appreciate these can be difficult to estimate.
Cheers,
Mike
6
In reply to UKC News:
meh... still doesn't cover the Cheviots at least MWIS covers the Cheviots in southern Scotland.
When it comes to Northumberland the Met Office is to science what astrology is to astronomy. In fact, you can almost go as far as saying whatever the Met Office says is the opposite to what is actually happening in Northumberland. I have yet to see it predict an accurate forecast for the Cheviots or Kielder. It is about 50% accurate for the North Pennines which as far as I am concerned is as good as guess work.
meh... still doesn't cover the Cheviots at least MWIS covers the Cheviots in southern Scotland.
When it comes to Northumberland the Met Office is to science what astrology is to astronomy. In fact, you can almost go as far as saying whatever the Met Office says is the opposite to what is actually happening in Northumberland. I have yet to see it predict an accurate forecast for the Cheviots or Kielder. It is about 50% accurate for the North Pennines which as far as I am concerned is as good as guess work.
2
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
The mountain weather forecast by the Met is about as much use as a glass eye... it changes every 5 minutes.... Around about Thursday, the forecast for Sunday was fair with showers... On Friday it then became rain at lunch time... On Saturday morning it then became drizzle at lunch time... then on Saturday afternoon until about 7pm - sun with showers at lunch time... then sun and cloud all day (11pm last night)... Great got all my gear ready last night to hit Great Gable.... then get up at 5:30am and now it says thunder in the afternoon and heavy rain. FFS!!!! What good is a weather forecast that doesn't actually forecast the weather but feels like it is a bloke sticking his head out of the window and telling you what's happening. As I said... the Met is to science what astrology is to astronomy. If it was anything but thunder being forecast I would've gone and took my chance but even though I have no faith in the service, a forecast of thunder means it is not worth driving to the Lakes (esp as mwf has had it as rain all day since Thursday), if when I get there I am going to be kept off the hills. At the moment Tuesday is looking good with the Met (not so great with mwf)... let's hope that one doesn't change too much in the next 48 hours. It is a shame I can't go tomorrow and see who is right... Met predicts fog all morning, mwf predicts sunshine.
The mountain weather forecast by the Met is about as much use as a glass eye... it changes every 5 minutes.... Around about Thursday, the forecast for Sunday was fair with showers... On Friday it then became rain at lunch time... On Saturday morning it then became drizzle at lunch time... then on Saturday afternoon until about 7pm - sun with showers at lunch time... then sun and cloud all day (11pm last night)... Great got all my gear ready last night to hit Great Gable.... then get up at 5:30am and now it says thunder in the afternoon and heavy rain. FFS!!!! What good is a weather forecast that doesn't actually forecast the weather but feels like it is a bloke sticking his head out of the window and telling you what's happening. As I said... the Met is to science what astrology is to astronomy. If it was anything but thunder being forecast I would've gone and took my chance but even though I have no faith in the service, a forecast of thunder means it is not worth driving to the Lakes (esp as mwf has had it as rain all day since Thursday), if when I get there I am going to be kept off the hills. At the moment Tuesday is looking good with the Met (not so great with mwf)... let's hope that one doesn't change too much in the next 48 hours. It is a shame I can't go tomorrow and see who is right... Met predicts fog all morning, mwf predicts sunshine.
1
5
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
I'd like to thank you for finally splitting the western side of the Scottish Highlands in two instead of making us guess whether that sunshine was due on Skye or The Trossachs.
And the weather for my recent trip to Skye was much better than the last visit so I'm a happy customer
I'd like to thank you for finally splitting the western side of the Scottish Highlands in two instead of making us guess whether that sunshine was due on Skye or The Trossachs.
And the weather for my recent trip to Skye was much better than the last visit so I'm a happy customer
1
In reply to Nymeria:
So would you rather they didn't change it when their forecast changes?
> The mountain weather forecast by the Met is about as much use as a glass eye... it changes every 5 minutes....
So would you rather they didn't change it when their forecast changes?
7
In reply to Robert Durran:
Ideally you would get a print out for the next year that you can laminate and tape into the lid of your rucsac.
Ideally you would get a print out for the next year that you can laminate and tape into the lid of your rucsac.
Post edited at 13:02
1
In reply to davidbeynon:
Isn't that what all conscientious ML's do?
> Ideally you would get a print out for the next year that you can laminate and tape into the lid of your rucsac.
Isn't that what all conscientious ML's do?
1
In reply to Nymeria:
Hi Nymeria,
I’ve been off for the last two weeks so can’t comment on the build up to Sunday. As I’m sure you are aware, the reliability of a forecast usually decreases the further ahead you look. However, some synoptic setups allow for more confidence than others. A quick look at the latest surface pressure charts shows a fairly slack area of low pressure centred over the UK this morning. Pinpointing the location of rain in this sort of setup is often very difficult a few days ahead, with slight variations often meaning the difference between rain or a quite nice day for a given location.
Roughly speaking, if an area of low pressure is forecast to be centred very close to your location, small changes in the forecast will often have a much bigger local affect than if the low centre was forecast to be out in the Atlantic/north of the UK.
Is it the mountain weather forecast for the Lake District you are looking at, or the individual summit forecast for e.g. Great Gable? The former is written by a forecaster and issued twice a day, the latter is model data, but uses something called ‘nowcasting’ to blend the latest rain radar data into the first few hours of the forecast and will update on an hourly basis.
I hope you get a good day on Tuesday.
Mike
Hi Nymeria,
I’ve been off for the last two weeks so can’t comment on the build up to Sunday. As I’m sure you are aware, the reliability of a forecast usually decreases the further ahead you look. However, some synoptic setups allow for more confidence than others. A quick look at the latest surface pressure charts shows a fairly slack area of low pressure centred over the UK this morning. Pinpointing the location of rain in this sort of setup is often very difficult a few days ahead, with slight variations often meaning the difference between rain or a quite nice day for a given location.
Roughly speaking, if an area of low pressure is forecast to be centred very close to your location, small changes in the forecast will often have a much bigger local affect than if the low centre was forecast to be out in the Atlantic/north of the UK.
Is it the mountain weather forecast for the Lake District you are looking at, or the individual summit forecast for e.g. Great Gable? The former is written by a forecaster and issued twice a day, the latter is model data, but uses something called ‘nowcasting’ to blend the latest rain radar data into the first few hours of the forecast and will update on an hourly basis.
I hope you get a good day on Tuesday.
Mike
5
In reply to BnB:
Thanks for the feedback, and I'm glad you got some good weather on Skye. I'm recently back from a trip there myself taking advantage of some fantastic weather for the ridge.
Thanks for the feedback, and I'm glad you got some good weather on Skye. I'm recently back from a trip there myself taking advantage of some fantastic weather for the ridge.
3
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
Do you give a confidence factor - you're great at forecasting massive fronts but much less accurate with the wishy washy stuff, I think thats to be expected but do you let us know that?
Personally I only use Met office interpretation when I'm required to for work as its difficult to understand your forecast on plus side I love your wave height data from mid Atlantic and your historic data sets are great.
MWIS, prophet of doom - far too negative to base personal climbing plans, you would never leave the house. BBC - tap postcode into app and off you go - accurate enough and really easy to understand
Do you give a confidence factor - you're great at forecasting massive fronts but much less accurate with the wishy washy stuff, I think thats to be expected but do you let us know that?
Personally I only use Met office interpretation when I'm required to for work as its difficult to understand your forecast on plus side I love your wave height data from mid Atlantic and your historic data sets are great.
MWIS, prophet of doom - far too negative to base personal climbing plans, you would never leave the house. BBC - tap postcode into app and off you go - accurate enough and really easy to understand
In reply to Nymeria:
I don't know about the Lakes but the Peak District forecast was very wrong for us both days. It was also wrong on MWIS, yr.no, and the BBC.
Anyone would think that despite massively increased computing power, weather-forecasting is still not an exact science, and there are some situations where confidence is low or where it does the unexpected.
Still, you clearly know better. How much do you charge for your guaranteed-to-be-100%-accurate forecasts?
I don't know about the Lakes but the Peak District forecast was very wrong for us both days. It was also wrong on MWIS, yr.no, and the BBC.
Anyone would think that despite massively increased computing power, weather-forecasting is still not an exact science, and there are some situations where confidence is low or where it does the unexpected.
Still, you clearly know better. How much do you charge for your guaranteed-to-be-100%-accurate forecasts?
In reply to UKC News:
Great to see some much needed improvements. The split of Scotland is good as is the availability of PDFs so they can be downloaded and viewed offline. I'm still not sure of the point of the hazards screen on the opening page. Echo other comments that there is still a desperate need for some indication of confidence. metroblue does this really well and I don't see why neither the met office nor Mwis do, might help stopping people getting so angry when you're wrong as well!
For those commenting on Mwis's pessimism there was an interview on this website with somebody from Mwis defending their intentional pessimism.
Great to see some much needed improvements. The split of Scotland is good as is the availability of PDFs so they can be downloaded and viewed offline. I'm still not sure of the point of the hazards screen on the opening page. Echo other comments that there is still a desperate need for some indication of confidence. metroblue does this really well and I don't see why neither the met office nor Mwis do, might help stopping people getting so angry when you're wrong as well!
For those commenting on Mwis's pessimism there was an interview on this website with somebody from Mwis defending their intentional pessimism.
In reply to John Kelly and sheelba:
Hi both,
A statement on the confidence of the forecast was one of the changes introduced with the new forecast. This can be found at the top of the forecast.
MFB, if by wishy washy stuff you mean scattered showers and sunny spells, it is impossible to predict exactly where individual showers will develop more than a few hours ahead, instead we aim to indicate the area and time they are most likely to occur.
Sheelba, the idea of the hazards is to give a quick highlight of the potential for any hazardous weather on day one of the forecast. The text and videos associated with the different hazards are aimed at those less experienced than seasoned mountaineers. Many on here will be all too aware of what the Cairngorm plateau is like in a gale, or what it’s like to top out on Ben Nevis in a full on blizzard, but for someone who has never experienced these conditions it can be hard to appreciate just how bad they can be. While obviously no substitute for experiencing the real thing, these hazard descriptions and videos aim to give people an idea of what to expect.
Mike
Hi both,
A statement on the confidence of the forecast was one of the changes introduced with the new forecast. This can be found at the top of the forecast.
MFB, if by wishy washy stuff you mean scattered showers and sunny spells, it is impossible to predict exactly where individual showers will develop more than a few hours ahead, instead we aim to indicate the area and time they are most likely to occur.
Sheelba, the idea of the hazards is to give a quick highlight of the potential for any hazardous weather on day one of the forecast. The text and videos associated with the different hazards are aimed at those less experienced than seasoned mountaineers. Many on here will be all too aware of what the Cairngorm plateau is like in a gale, or what it’s like to top out on Ben Nevis in a full on blizzard, but for someone who has never experienced these conditions it can be hard to appreciate just how bad they can be. While obviously no substitute for experiencing the real thing, these hazard descriptions and videos aim to give people an idea of what to expect.
Mike
3
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
Hi Mike,
It's good that you've taken the time to answers questions and discuss your forecasting directly. It's a contentious and misunderstood area and not just in the mountaineering world, so thanks for sticking your head above the parapet. Personally I take the MWIS and Met Office forecasts together and over time have collected information anecdotally as to how good I think they both are and use them both, with other information, to inform my decision making. This process evolves over time.
I'm surprised at the 20% figure. If that's accurate I think that's shocking and suggests a lot of education is still necessary.
I note you're a mountaineer. Which forecasts do you use and how do you go about making a decision on what you think the weather will do given your profession?
Thanks,
James.
Hi Mike,
It's good that you've taken the time to answers questions and discuss your forecasting directly. It's a contentious and misunderstood area and not just in the mountaineering world, so thanks for sticking your head above the parapet. Personally I take the MWIS and Met Office forecasts together and over time have collected information anecdotally as to how good I think they both are and use them both, with other information, to inform my decision making. This process evolves over time.
I'm surprised at the 20% figure. If that's accurate I think that's shocking and suggests a lot of education is still necessary.
I note you're a mountaineer. Which forecasts do you use and how do you go about making a decision on what you think the weather will do given your profession?
Thanks,
James.
In reply to jpicksley:
Hi James,
If I’m not in work I will look at the Met Office mountain forecast, and use the surface pressure charts to get an overall picture. The ability to read a surface pressure chart is very useful with a lot of information to be gleaned with a little understanding of how the weather works. If you’re interested there is some information here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/synoptic-weath... while following the isobars back and thinking about where the air has come from helps to come up with a basic forecast, something called airmass theory http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-wo...
Obviously the mountains will have a big effect so a dedicated mountain forecast should always be checked.
On the day, satellite imagery and rainfall radar are useful for gauging what’s going to happen over the next few hours, but it’s worth bearing in mind rainfall radar may over or under read, especially in the mountains, and will rarely capture drizzle.
If I wanted a heads up for what’s going to happen at a longer range, the ECMWF website has a useful range of free long range charts. But I wouldn’t make any firm plans that far ahead.
Checking consistency of the forecast (both written and charts) on the lead in will give an idea of confidence.
Hope this helps,
Mike
Hi James,
If I’m not in work I will look at the Met Office mountain forecast, and use the surface pressure charts to get an overall picture. The ability to read a surface pressure chart is very useful with a lot of information to be gleaned with a little understanding of how the weather works. If you’re interested there is some information here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/synoptic-weath... while following the isobars back and thinking about where the air has come from helps to come up with a basic forecast, something called airmass theory http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-wo...
Obviously the mountains will have a big effect so a dedicated mountain forecast should always be checked.
On the day, satellite imagery and rainfall radar are useful for gauging what’s going to happen over the next few hours, but it’s worth bearing in mind rainfall radar may over or under read, especially in the mountains, and will rarely capture drizzle.
If I wanted a heads up for what’s going to happen at a longer range, the ECMWF website has a useful range of free long range charts. But I wouldn’t make any firm plans that far ahead.
Checking consistency of the forecast (both written and charts) on the lead in will give an idea of confidence.
Hope this helps,
Mike
5
In reply to Met Office forecaster:
Oh dear not sure how I missed that thanks. That makes the hazards bit make a bit more sense as well
Oh dear not sure how I missed that thanks. That makes the hazards bit make a bit more sense as well
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