UKH

A bit of idle speculation while we await BoJo's roadmap for lifting the restrictions in England, which is due to be released on Sunday. Looks the Mirror have seen a draft of the plan. Of course we don't know how reliable this is but Pippa Crerar is a respected journalist and I'm sure has some good sources. It could also change by Sunday as the government will still working on this and evaluating the latest data. Most importantly, no plan survives contact with the enemy, so whatever long term plan is announced it's bound to be adjusted as time goes on and further data is available. Note this is for England only.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-drafts-5-step-21986668

1. From Monday

Unlimited exercise allowed. Employees to be encouraged to return to workplaces that have stayed open through- out the lockdown if safe. Garden centres could reopen while there may be more guidance on the use of outdoor spaces including open-air markets, high streets and cemeteries.

We'll have to see what 'unlimited exercise' actually means - given the later stages below, it sounds like this could just mean being able to go out more than once a day for an unlimited time (strictly speaking, this is not currently illegal in England but most people take a dim view of it). There could still be restrictions on travel but it would be good if the government could confirm that 'local' travel to walk in a country park, forest or on a canal towpath and so on is fine (again, this is not currently illegal in England but some people don't approve and it seems that different police forces / officers can take quite different views on it). I doubt we will see any significant changes at this point as far as climbing and hillwalking are concerned and that may well be the right answer for now.

The Guardian's take on this is:

"Picnics, sunbathing and unlimited rambles will be among the first activities to be allowed when the lockdown loosens... The prime minister is expected to change the rules so that people would be able to leave the house repeatedly in a single day, so long as they keep a safe distance from anyone from outside their household."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/picnics-and-sunbathing-on-...

The Times, the Torygraph and The Sun also refer to more than one form of exercise a day.

2. End of May/Start of June

Phased return of primary schools in England, starting with Year 6. Households could be allowed to expand “social bubble” to meet one other household of family or friends.

Presumably the social bubble would still involve SD and may be restricted to outdoor meetings, so perhaps not that helpful as far as climbing is concerned and if it's limited to one other person/household most people would probably prioritise family. In practice, this will make things difficult for the police to enforce as no one is going to keep tabs on whom people are meeting, so it will be down to personal compliance.

3. June (End)

Phased return of secondary schools in England before the summer holidays. Small team sports such as five-a-side football could be allowed, along with outdoor gatherings of fewer than 30 people. Cafes with outdoor seating could reopen while outdoor sports like golf, tennis and angling might resume. Possible return of Premier League matches, although behind closed doors.

If contact sports such as football and larger outdoor gatherings are allowed, I would argue that climbing would be fine as well, albeit there might still be some travel restrictions.

4. End of August/Start of September

Pubs, bars and restaurants could gradually reopen although customers would be expected to follow strict social distancing rules.

Post climb beer back on the cards, for those who are willing to brave the pubs...

5. October

Possible return of football fans to matches. Gyms could be allowed to re-open. But any further lifting of restrictions to get back to normal life would be in doubt amid fears of a second wave of coronavirus or an outbreak of seasonal flu.

Climbing walls would presumably reopen alongside gyms.

On the whole, this is fairly positive and it would be great to have some target dates to look forward to. I always expected the lockdown to last until the end of May, so any relaxation from next week would be a bonus, even if it does not actually mean much as far as climbing and hillwalking are concerned. I think it's important that the unlock as a whole should not be rushed but there seems to be recognition from the government that things done outdoors in small groups carry less risk and should therefore be among the first areas to be relaxed.

If a relaxation is indeed on the cards, I think it's particularly important that people don't rush out hill walking and climbing over this Bank Holiday weekend so as not to upset the applecart. On the whole, it seems that people have been largely complying with the restrictions across all areas of life, including in relation to outdoor activities.

Whatever transpires on Sunday, it would be good to see an update from the BMC before the following weekend.

Just to clarify the clickbait title, what I really meant was the gradual relaxation of restrictions starting from Monday, not that climbing and hill walking would suddenly be 'ok' from Monday. What's clear is that the dial is starting to shift, which is a good thing (and it's starting earlier than I expected).

In reply to Misha: Its  a bit premature Imo.

In reply to Misha:

Thanks for posting.

I'm sure we've all been wondering what Boris is going to announce for Monday since he trailed it at PMQs yesterday. I admit I had expected the first relaxations to be focused on getting people like construction workers back to work, and not expected any change affecting the rest of us until daily infections are much lower. However if scientific advice and evidence from other countries (which I'm sure they will be looking at) advises them to allow your bullet 1 above from Monday and see what effect it has on R, then that's obviously great for those of us who want to be outdoors. It doesn't allow climbing in pairs or groups, but it would fairly clearly allow isolated bouldering without excessive travel and it might enable you to meet up with a non-household family member for a walk if you kept social distancing throughout. That would make a huge difference to people who have been locked down alone.

I just hope any change to the guidance is really clear so that they can properly understand the impact of the changes they have made. If people interpret the guidance differently and take different actions as a result, the Govt won't know what it is that has caused any change in infection rate that results.

Let's see what they actually announce on Sunday.

Edit to add: the timescales above for pubs and sports events seem incredibly optimistic to me. I can't see the justification for them until we have managed to start more essential high risk things like schools and work and seen evidence that R is still manageable.

In reply to racodemisa:

I think they're potentially looking at stuff that basically won't have any effect that some people are doing anyway.  Not everyone wants to go out for a run/walk/bike ride several times a day, so it'll have negligible impact to let people do that, because most people won't do it anyway.  And the picnic thing probably had limited effect too.

In reply to racodemisa:

The first phase is effectively just letting people outside more for 3 weeks or so. All the evidence is that transmission is v low outside.  Further, they seem to think that you need to be in close contact with someone for 15 minutes or more to get CV, or rather to get bad CV as it depends on viral load. This is why the app will only notify you if someone you have been in close contact with for 15 mins has got it.

Each phase is 3 weeks or so long so plenty of time to see effect of each stage of relaxing. The natural first step is being able to go outside.

Remember, it's just to get R below 1 not to completely lower the risk of anyone getting it to nil. We have to live with it now, people will still get it but we have to go on living.

In reply to Si dH:

Construction is largely back already,  although running at a much lower rate. 

We have 26 out of 27 sites open, all with social distancing and safe systems of work in place. The limiter will be the lack of key materials, from basics like plaster and mortar through to M&E kit. 

Haulage for imports is a problem as so much is stored, on trailers, there are plenty of lorry tractor units available but few trailers. 

In reply to RebeccaMM:

Understood.It doesn't seem to correlate to the plans here in France ..maybe most of the rest of Europe.I think in terms of numbers registered admissions rate and mortality rate per week these are still double as compared to France and Spain. Just seems to be jumping the gun a bit.

In reply to racodemisa:

Yes but for the time being it looks like all of the social distancing rules are still in place, you will be expected to keep yourself safe, but you will be allowed outside to exercise for unlimited periods for a few weeks, and then see how that goes

I wish they would brief this stuff properly not leak it out, because some people are likely to be scared and concerned about what the initial  releasing of lockdown means. 

In reply to RebeccaMM:

I think they're worried that people will do stupid things over the bank holiday if they make any official pronouncements about easing off beforehand.

In reply to Misha:

If reports from Germany and Denmark continue to point to easing of restrictions having little or no effect on R0 things could move a lot quicker than this.

It's likely the what's been leaked is the worst case scenario as Govt will want to 'manage expectations' and be able to 'surprise of the upside' - both classic tactics when trying to spin your way out of trouble.

In reply to RebeccaMM: I see for sure.But i I still think it's good to get those numbers down first.

In reply to racodemisa:

I do largely agree with this. It's a really complicated picture though. Especially because of the concentration of infections now in care homes as opposed to in the wider community, and because the daily death rates you see are all on reported dates, rather than the date of death. Many of the daily deaths reported in the news are actually additional deaths that occurred days and weeks earlier, rather than deaths occurring now. This all needs to be accounted for when making decisions. Daily deaths by date of death are reported by NHS England here:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily...

(this is only hospitals, which yesterday were approximately half of the total new reported deaths, 331 out of 649. The actual number yesterday by daye of death was 54. You'd expect that to increase to somewhere around 200-250 if you look at the trend once all deaths are reported. ) The rest is almost all in care homes. 

In reply to racodemisa:

I was wondering about this. We seem to be talking about lifting restrictions earlier on the curve than other countries. Obviously it will depend on exactly what's done and the impact of that on infection rates but it's definitely something to consider.

In reply to racodemisa:

Ps. I think the daily new infection rate is still too high though. Over 6000 new positives yesterday. I'd love to know what the breakdown in that is between hospital workers/existing patients, care home workers /residents and everyone else. 

In reply to Si dH:

Having watched the death clown flounder yesterday at PMQ's, spouting the usual "piffle paffle" while all the time (in desperation) looking over his shoulders to the empty seats where his hoards of cheering buffoons should be sat - I'll be amazed if he can deliver some clear guidance. 

Perhaps he'll ask an adult to do it.

In reply to RebeccaMM:

The proposal was for the alerting system to be dynamically altered rather than having a hard and fast rule like 15 minutes contact, so someone like Dominic Cummings would ultimately have his hand on the dial determining when individuals are required to isolate/test.

In reply to Misha:

There is a very telling quote from Graham Brady (chair of the 1922 committee) in today's guardian. 

The public has been "a little too willing to stay at home". 

Even when we are doing as told we are regarded as lazy scroungers. 

In reply to Misha:

I'm puzzled by the number of new cases for the UK that seems to have stayed roughly flat at around 6000 for a few weeks now. Presumably because of increased testing this means the proportion of positive tests has fallen? And so the actual number of people infected is much lower? Some data for UK cases: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative...
And an alternative set of data based on self reported symptoms which show cases falling massively. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

The actual substance of the reported relaxation sounds sensible, but I wish the government would act a bit more responsibly: give a clear formal announcement, don't leak a hint of a easing before a bank holiday weekend. That's just asking for people to decide for themselves that lockdown is ending so they may as well have a BBQ.

Edited to add covid-zoe data link which I forgot.

In reply to bigbobbyking:

I believe we're getting a BoJo briefing today to stay you must stay at home over weekend, then the relaxation announcement on Sunday

In reply to bigbobbyking:

I agree, sadly Snowdonia two months ago shows how sensible people are when allowed to "interpret" or "decide" for themselves  

In reply to Misha:

Still leaking and spinning, kiting every new idea so they can gauge our response and follow rather than leading.

Is it really too much to hope for in these tines: clarity, honesty and responsibility.

Jk

In reply to jkarran:

Sadly, I think it is. 

In reply to Presley Whippet:

Between that and "addicted to wage subsidies", before many people have even managed to access the furlough scheme, there are going to be plenty of the current government up against the wall when the revolution comes.

In reply to jonny taylor:

When the pubs reopen we can plan our action over a pint in The Beret and Kalashnikov. 

In reply to bigbobbyking:

I'd be very wary about looking at self reported cases. Back at the end of march it was still cold/ flu season and a lot of people will have developed a cough and had to self isolate and reported possible covid 19. These self reported cases will have now dropped significantly as it is no longer winter and as social distancing will reduce cold and flu infections just as much as it will reduce covid 19.

In reply to Davidlees215:

Good point about seasonal flu falling over the same time period. In case it's not clear, that survey is a bit more sophisticated than just counting those who are self isolating. It follows people overtime and asks if they are feeling normal, if they've had a covid-19 test, and about a wide range of symptoms not just the official triggers for self isolating.

I'm curious what other 'best estimates' of the true number of symptomatic cases of covid-19 over time in the UK exist? The number of positive tests on its own is obviously not a good measure as the volume of testing has been changing dramatically. The proportion of positive tests is not good either since the criteria for getting a test has changed. 

In reply to Misha:

Here's what we're doing over here (Guernsey) https://covid19.gov.gg/sites/default/files/2020-05/Guernsey%27s%20Framework... We're in a much better place than mainland UK as our infection levels are well past the peak of 160-odd live cases and we're down to 16.  Our 'lockdown' was harder (fewer businesses deemed essential, 2 hours run/walk/cycle exercise per day) and earlier in the infection timeline than yours and we contact traced more. A couple of days ago our R0 was estimated at 0.85.  General consensus is that our government has done a very good job.

To save the read, we will be waiting between 4-8 weeks of no 'community seeded' cases or increase in hospitalisations to move between phases, so I guess that should be a good guide for you in the UK.  We also have triggers for going back a phase, such as 'more than 10 community seeded cases, increased hospitalisations, non-compliance with the rules', or most importantly, "....other indicators becoming apparent to Public Health Services indicating sub-optimal containment of the virus."

This way everyone knows where they stand and businesses can plan accordingly.

In reply to groovejunkie:

There are implications for tourism further down the line for sure.Connected to what happens now..What if the numbers don't come,down enough say by august/September ? The EU/schengen area will remain closed to uk tourists imo.Ok the uk is,a wonderful place but this,will create a lot of pressure in places like Snowdonia etc etc.Unfair on locals imo.Maybe they should create different zones like in France and keep restrictions tight and relax others.Basicaly I think it's to early.

In reply to racodemisa:

Do you think countries like France might not let us in for a while? If we are seen, rightly or wrongly, as the European epicentre and our tracking app isn't compatible with most European countries then maybe UK visitors will be more trouble than they are worth?

In reply to Red Rover:

Staggeringly, once the lockdown restrictions are partially eased on Monday in France, arrivals from the UK are not going to be subject to required isolation or quarantine, even though those from other non-EU countries will be. I don't see any health-centred reasoning for this; quite the opposite in fact.

Note that there still will be movement restrictions within France, even in 'green' departements that are relatively virus-free.

In reply to Red Rover: That will be the schengen policy .If you go on the schengenvisa.com website.It gives interesting info.Right now,there are external and internal borders.The 27 are in debate about how they can synchronise the relaxing of the internal borders. Within the zone.That debate is ongoing.The primary trigger for the green light here is the relative infection rates in different countries and where those highest rates are.As you suggest.I think it,will be a good few weeks befor this is, resolved.As for the uk if they can't show they've brought numbers down doesn't matter what stage theyre at The border will remain closed..If we get to January anyway well from feb1st the uk passport holders will need a 90 day visa..perhaps a covid visa as well.

In reply to john arran:

That is bizarre! 

In reply to john arran:

Where did you read this, John? Not able to find any sign of this in the news :/

In reply to Misha:

That to me reads as outdoor climbing locally from monday. 

In reply to DanielGyi:

I read the same, so probably in Le Monde &/or the Dauphiné Libre. But the proposed law/regulations are still to be agreed & last I saw it had been amended by the Senate & sent back to the Assemblée Nationale but had yet to be adopted.

So at the moment its not sure what the final restrictions will be

edit to add that the new restrictions will be annouced at 4 O'clock this afternoon

In reply to Misha:

I don't see why, if you're allowed to unlimitedly ramble, you shouldn't be able to climb with a member of your household, subject travel restrictions.

At the very least I hope that fishing solo is at least permitted from Monday so that I can get out of the flat all day and just be in the outdoors.

In reply to Misha:

The nation’s priorities have got to be a gradual restart of economic activity and education and an ease of stress on families with children in confined accommodation.

Any relaxation on outdoor activities including climbing could be an accidental byproduct. Where to draw the line? Access to Stanage from Sheffield residents? How about Manchester or London Residents? 

I’m happy to take the long term view; enjoying the freedom to cycle for cardio fitness and weight loss and make long term plans for next year which will include more mountain crags. I’ve found that I’ve bounced back stronger and more motivated after previous lay offs, for example due to a broken leg

In reply to Red Rover:

Unfortunately, the drunken hordes who normally go to Spain to get rat arsed will be staying in the UK  this summer and the pleasant Europeans will stay away.

In reply to Misha:

Good news today from Germany...  Obviously we're behind them (and have suffered more) due to our Government's multiple failures, but it's encouraging, as essentially the virus will behave the same here in due course...  Maybe that Isreali guy was right and it basically dies out after 70 days or so no matter we do or don't do...

“There is a new phase in this epidemic,”  Prof. Lars Schaade, the deputy head of the RKI, said. “There is a new normal in all areas of society, so we decided to stop regular briefings.”

The reproduction number, or R — the number of people each person with the virus infects — has fallen to its lowest level in weeks, at just 0.65.

There is still no sign of a second wave of infections more than two weeks after Germany began to lift its lockdown.

Restaurants and hotels are to reopen and the Bundesliga football league is to resume under a new easing of restrictions announced by Angela Merkel on Wednesday.

In reply to Presley Whippet:

Good old Tories! Always someone else's fault. Maybe people were scared of catching a virus? Or maybe scared of being handed a fine from a police officer who might have been vague about what was allowed or might have taken a dislike to them if they argued their corner? Or perhaps they were unsure as to whether they were allowed to go to work as their job wasn't on an essentials list?

This makes me very angry.

In reply to DanielGyi:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200503-french-quarantine-rules-to-spare-trave...

In reply to Paul Sagar:

Plenty of people have been fishing solo every day in Exeter with no problems.I'd be surprised if they specifically mention fishing, just as I'll be surprised if they specifically mention climbing.

In reply to john arran:

With the volume of goods road traffic that moves around the continent and the UK such restrictions would be crazy. Its in everybodys interest that this continues to flow freely.

In reply to Si dH:

Yes, very good point about the guidance needing to be clear(er). The worst thing we need is for the papers to shout about ‘unlimited exercise’ and then hordes of people (who have never heard of the BMC, never mind UKC) tramping up Scafell etc.

Would like to see the breakdown of new cases as well. What doesn’t fill me with confidence is that the testing strategy has been a shambles. Track, trace and test will be key to enabling a wider relaxation, as well as the ability to gather data on who is being tested to monitor the infection channels. I guess they’re working towards that.

In reply to RebeccaMM:

Exactly. Makes sense to ease restrictions on low risk activities first. As you say, it’s not about zero risk (which is impossible), it’s about controlling the risks and keeping R as far below 1 as reasonably possible. We are lucky that we engage in outdoor activities which can be done alone or with one other person, whereas things like going to the gym and team sports will have to wait (much) longer.

In reply to Skip:

It’s more that it is close season on the rivers and some still waters and the local fisheries around mine that would normally be open during closed season have all closed because of C19

In reply to kaiser:

Usually best to underpromise and over deliver than the other way round... Of course we don’t know if it was an ‘official’ leak to test the water or an unofficial one. 

...and I can’t really justify driving eg 3 hours to the coast to sea fish given travel restrictions. 

In reply to Skip:

pps if you’ve seen people fishing on rivers since 15th March they’re all breaking the law and really should be reported to the Environment Agency regardless of lockdown, because they jeopardise conservation and fish stocks by distressing fish during the spawning season. 

In reply to Paul Sagar:

What about canals? That's where people round here are currently fishing.

In reply to Misha:

I'd never heard of the BMC (or UKC) when I started bog trotting and hill walking. It didn't stop my enjoyment of the moors and fells. 

 If it's true , as some people think, that large numbers of people are discovering the benefits of exercise and even enjoying it then surely it can only be a good thing if more and more people improve their fitness level by slogging up to Mickledore  or tramping round the Derwent Watershed. 

In reply to Tom Valentine:

Yes, assuming they don't have an accident which results in the whole helicopter crew all having to self-isolate for a fortnight because one of them or their patient gave them the virus.  This weekend has the potential to be a very busy one for the emergency services given the weather forecast for tomorrow and saturday, and with the current levels of virus in the community there's a significant risk to the emergency services as a result.

In reply to RebeccaMM:

Looks like it's Raab leading tonights coronavirus briefing.....

In reply to Skip:

Canals are something of a mixed bag - but a lot of them are open in closed season (sort of depends who controls the fishing rights). But it’s probably fine. 

In reply to Toerag:

This weekend is going to be a riot I think. Today's papers pretty much said 'lockdown over' on the front pages. On my estate the lockdown has pretty much ended already with people playing footie and hanging round in groups etc. 

Become a Supporter

I think the papers have torpedoed any chance of gradually easing out of lockdown slowly and carefully; the dam will probably burst this weekend. 

In reply to bigbobbyking:

Yeah you’d expect more positive tests with more testing but the total number of new cases is still important as that’s what the track and trace system will need to get on top of. 6k a day feels like a lot. Then again, they’re hiring 18k contact tracers so that’s less than one case a day to do contact tracing on - seems manageable but no doubt it will be a laborious task. 

In reply to Red Rover:

What's the odds on some big moorland fires this weekend or next, conditions are pretty good at the moment.

In reply to Paul Sagar:

Game fishing season starts 15th March, so could be fishing for trout.  

In reply to Toerag:

Places like Guernsey or indeed New Zealand have a chance to virtually eradicate the virus or at least keep case numbers extremely low. I’m not sure that’s entirely feasible for a bigger country like the UK (although China seem to have managed it - if you believe their numbers) so don’t know how reasonable it is to directly compare what the UK and Guernsey are doing. Italy, Spain and particularly France are  probably better comparators. They were a week or two ahead of us on the way up and are now starting to relax their restrictions (France from Monday). Their lockdowns were stricter but on the other hand the NHS seems to have coped better. One thing is clear, we aren’t anywhere near Germany. It will be interesting to see what happens to R in these other countries. 

In reply to mick taylor:

Yeah that’s true - fly fishing would be ok. And you defo have to socially distance for that!

In reply to Paul Sagar:

One of my neighbours makes a cheese paste for chub fishing, leaving it to mature in a plastic bag for 6 months - the stench encourages social distancing !

In reply to Toerag:

Sorry, I was talking about an increase in the numbers of people enjoying the hills as a permanent change rather than a sudden influx this weekend.

In reply to cragtyke:

Been predicting it for weeks - relaxation of restrictions followed immediately by closure of the moors due to fire risk. It needs to rain for a week solidly.

In reply to kevin stephens:

Outdoor recreation is not high on the economic agenda but it’s not just about the economy. It’s also about restoring everyday life as far as possible while keeping R as low as possible. So if some restrictions can be lifted with negligible impact on R, it makes sense to lift them, even if the economic benefit is minor (besides, there would be health benefits).

In reply to Red Rover:

Yeah the headlines aren’t helpful. I did wonder whether not to start this thread at this time, then saw all the front pages and figured my little contribution to the debate is going to be immaterial in the scheme of things!

In reply to Misha:

My point about specific forms of outdoor recreation being a byproduct was that climbing and similar activities won’t even be on the radar in defining relaxation in the regulations. For many golfers, anglers etc long distance travel may not be an issue but for climbers it will be. I guess we will find out soon enough (or maybe it will be another fudge)

To put it simply, unless travel restrictions are relaxed then allowing climbing, hill walking, sea kayaking and other sports where social distancing is easily complied with doesn’t help many participants 

In reply to mick taylor:

3rd March in Wales

In reply to Tom Valentine:

Careful what you wish for! My prediction is when it’s reasonably / generally acceptable to go climbing (late June?), we’ll get a three month deluge. 

In reply to kevin stephens:

Bear in mind that the only formal travel restriction is the need stay at home unless you have a reasonable excuse to go out. Plus lots of messaging and guidance about staying at home. There is no legal limit to how far you can travel but some police forces are taking the view that non local travel does not constitute a reasonable excuse. According to the papers, the messaging is changing to ‘stay safe’ rather than ‘stay at home’. If the government makes it clear that outdoor activities constitute a reasonable excuse and you can ‘travel to the countryside’, that would  effectively open things up (subject to SD and so on, plus some people would no doubt continue to see climbing as too risky). Strictly, they don’t  even need to change the regulations, just make it clear that a wider range of activities will be acceptable and that the police should ease off.

There’s an interesting point about police forces and indeed officers having a lot of independence. Overzealous local chief constables could continue to take a hard line but not sure any would given the flak they would get (and any fines might not stand up in court anyway).

In reply to Misha:

There will be pitchfork wielding locals manning  the Welsh border for  a while yet

In reply to Misha:

Sorry but we need a lot of rain and we need it a long time before the end June.

In reply to Tom Valentine:

Yeah sure, it’s not good for farming and for the reservoirs.

If they allow unlimited outside activities/exercise again from monday, then I'm going climbing. Nearest crag is 120 miles, but I don't see the issue if I just don't interact with anything other than the cliffs. My car can get there and back on a single tank of petrol, so I don't even need to go to as much as a petrol station. 

In reply to Misha:

I know for a fact that a few climbing walls won’t survive until October. I think it’s better that they let them open before rather laying off hundreds of people. 

In reply to Tom Valentine:

What happened to all that rain that we had in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and March?  

In reply to GripsterMoustache:

I totally agree with you. It feels really unfair that my only decent forms of exercise outdoors in London involve dangerously exposing myself like being behind hundred of heavy breathing cyclists. I think driving 200 miles to go climbing with my wife would be safer. It honestly feels a more ‘reasonable’ form of exercise despite the miles. 

In reply to Ramon Marin:

Some kind of crown funding solution could work for the walls (a bit like the UKC supporter scheme). I suspect if things get really tight we'll start seeing messages about it on social media.

Totally agree with your other point. One interesting nugget from today's press conference (I'm sad so follow these things fairly closely): they said that R is generally between 0.5 and 0.9 with regional variations and the think it's probably lowest in London. Also the number of people in hospital with Covid has dropped most significantly in London, whereas in other regions the reduction has been much more gradual. I suspect it's because a higher than average number of people in London are working from home or not working at all, due to most jobs being in offices and the service / retail sector.

Still, the risk of transmission at a crag is going to be lower than walking along the Thames with loads of other people (but the highest risk will be in the workplace and in shops).

In reply to Luke90:

So why did they leak it to all the tabloid press! A quick scan of the headlines in today's tabloids would have you believe we are in for a major relaxation on Monday. I think many people would take that as a green light to start their own exit from lockdown this bank holiday weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but I can see tourist locations being quite busy again tomorrow and Saturday, and the government rowing back on their plans as a consequence.

Martin

In reply to GripsterMoustache:

You and me both. I really don't see the difference between driving for 30 minutes and 3 hours, if - as you say - you take all food with you, eg. use an app to pay for petrol, only climb with someone from your household. The climbing itself is not going to spread the virus (and anyway we in London are now the least likely to be transmitting it outwards as we peaked earlier than the rest of the country, probably). For people who live in Manchester/Sheffield, three hours might sound like a crazy far drive -but for those of us stuck in London, its just a normal Friday night.

In reply to Misha:

Only very small changes in Wales from Monday...

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/coronavirus-live-latest-w...

“I want people to understand that this means exercising in your own locality, from your own front door. It does not including getting in your car [and driving somewhere to exercise]. They need to use their everyday understanding of what local means. They will [then] be continuing to play their part.”

In reply to Sl@te Head:

Just seen this too. Cr@p. I was hoping they might let us go a little further from home but confirmed by first minister that you are still not allowed to drive to exercise. Being allowed out to exercise more than once a day doesn't really make that much difference to me, would rather be able to go a little bit further at least to get a change of view.

To be reviewed again in 3 weeks.