Welsh lockdown

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 Danbow73 16 Jun 2020

Read this article this morning which suggests their will be only minor changes for local people to the lockdown at the next review:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53053880

Given there were only 3 deaths in the whole of wales yesterday I do wonder if it the restrictions are now proportional. Particularly against the backdrop of the doubling of benefit claimants in wales. Can't help but feeling that theres not going to be much left of a tourist industry after all this.

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 Neil Williams 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

I think the 5 mile thing is a way of de-facto closing the borders to keep the higher number of English cases out - but they can't actually close the borders because that's not a devolved right.  I can see the reason for wanting that, and maybe the UK Government should actually consider doing it, then the Welsh could at least move freely within their own country.

I'm increasingly of the view that there needs to be permanent[1], strict 14 day quarantine between jurisdictions on virus control (and NZ has today demonstrated what happens if you allow any exceptions) - which unless we de-devolve it (!) does mean borders between UK constituent countries...

Maybe we should just bail out the tourist and hospitality industry and write off this summer.  It's mostly small-time businesses, it'd be cheaper than banks...

[1] Quarantine will, in due course, be replaced by a vaccination certificate a la Yellow Fever.

Post edited at 10:47
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OP Danbow73 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Heres the thing though. Its proven that people being poorer leads to early deaths, so its quiet possible that the effects of the economic shutdown will end up killing more people than covid, which is exhasabated by the fact that many businesses will be reliant on their summer income. 

The other problem for me about what you said is that we should shut the border. I believe there should be quite a high bar for inacting laws that restricts people travelling within their own country (the uk). 

If we're saying we should shut the borders because 100 ish people are dying of covid a day then surely that's an argument for shutting the borders everytime we have a bad flu year? 

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 Neil Williams 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

It's worthy of note that if we'd locked down London only (plus UK external borders) at the start we might not have been where we are.

The trouble is the jurisdiction on the virus.  If there's bleed from other jurisdictions that makes your own policies less workable.  Maybe if England was a bit less hotchpotch...

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 Yanis Nayu 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

They’re not proportionate in my view. I think there’s a degree to which the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales simply want to plough their own furrow. 

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 John2 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

Both the Pembrokeshire coast path and the Preseli national park are starting to open up. The army are still saying that Range East will be closed until the end of July though - I think that they are being entirely unreasonable about that. What's more, they have said that even those who have already attended a Range West briefing for this year will be unable to climb there until next year.

They are taking advantage of the pandemic to keep the public out.

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 Neil Williams 16 Jun 2020
In reply to John2:

Given the way newcomers to the countryside have trashed many English beauty spots with litter, toilet waste[1], and vandalism, can you sort of blame them?

[1] I wouldn't mind if they took some sort of effort to choose a sensible location and bury it properly rather than just cr*pping on the beach.

Post edited at 12:38
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 John2 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

I doubt very much that the climbers who have attended the Range West briefing are intending to crap on the beach. 

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 Neil Williams 16 Jun 2020
In reply to John2:

I doubt they are either, though it's a bit hard to control it in that way, easier to just keep everyone out.

Post edited at 12:56
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 John2 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

If all climbers took your attitude we would be banned from a large percentage of the UK's best climbing. There is a long and honourabe history of moorland and firing range trespassing which has obtained the right to climb in the wide variety of areas that are open to us.

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 Jon Greengrass 16 Jun 2020
In reply to John2:

The difference is that we can choose to obey the current restrictions in order to protect life, whereas previous restrictions on accessing the countryside were to protect privilege.

 oldie 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> It's worthy of note that if we'd locked down London only (plus UK external borders) at the start we might not have been where we are.  The trouble is the jurisdiction on the virus.  If there's bleed from other jurisdictions that makes your own policies less workable.  Maybe if England was a bit less hotchpotch... <

To be fair to the UK government they have belatedly suggested that localized lockdowns might be used if fresh outbreaks occur. Whether they could enforce those restrictions well a second time is another matter. Apparently they hope to be able to isolate small areas/institutions in the first instance, rather than whole cities.

Post edited at 14:14
OP Danbow73 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

The problem about bailing out the tourism and hospitality industry is it would be unfair to bail out welsh businesses while asking english ones to open. You could bail out the whole of the industry but is that the most responsible way to use taxpayer funds when the fact that deaths are still declining in England shows that the easing of lockdown is not resulting in a second wave as was feared.

I'm also amazed at how easily people have been to sacrifice their right to about their business. Lockdown was clearly the right the thing to do but I cant see how anyone can justify that the current restrictions are proportional to the current situation

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mick taylor 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

Seven out of the top ten 'cases per 100k' are in Wales, so don't blame them for going easy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest...

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 Neil Williams 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

It's hard to tell regarding deaths - they lag any measures by 3-4 weeks.

Regarding cases, they do seem to have levelled out somewhat, so I'd expect deaths to do the same on that horizon (give or take a reduction of about 1/3 from treatment with whatever that corticosteroid is - that is itself good news).

mick taylor 16 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> It's worthy of note that if we'd locked down London only (plus UK external borders) at the start we might not have been where we are.

Friends of mine (health professionals) initially thought that (as I did), but they now tell me there is evidence that large numbers of infected people (over 4,000) came over to the UK in a very short timescale and spread it across the UK much quicker than we initially thought.  I think once it was in London it spread very quickly, possibly giving a false impression that it (primarily) originated from there.  Barrow in Furness, Cheltenham and Liverpool had little/nothing to do with London.

 jalapeno 17 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

Petition to relax 5 mile rule on Senedd website

https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/200026

Fill yer boots - revue due tomorrow.

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 Mark Edwards 18 Jun 2020
In reply to mick taylor:

> Seven out of the top ten 'cases per 100k' are in Wales, so don't blame them for going easy:

The only ‘problem’ with your link is that it’s a historic total. It doesn’t inform us as to the current rate of infections. Parts of Wales was hit hard and early but I wonder what the numbers of infections are now.

I have supported the lockdown in Wales and expected to see a rise in cases after England relaxed its lockdown. As that hasn’t happened, I feel that perhaps it’s time to relax things a bit here too.

Post edited at 21:49
 ianstevens 18 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

Devolved though right? So they can do as they wish in the Senedd, regardless of how “fair” it is.

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 JoshOvki 18 Jun 2020
In reply to Mark Edwards:

Wouldn't it best to lag 2 or 3 weeks behind as people are asymptomatic for the first 2 weeks?

 Mark Edwards 18 Jun 2020
In reply to JoshOvki:

> Wouldn't it best to lag 2 or 3 weeks behind as people are asymptomatic for the first 2 weeks?

Maybe, but there is no indication that the relaxation in England is a problem, as yet, and it’s been about two weeks. I wonder if politics are in play. The Senedd could signal an easing of restrictions and re-impose them if the data indicates a significant risk. Yes, one small step at a time, but perhaps a glimmer of a light at the end of the tunnel.

 Sl@te Head 18 Jun 2020
In reply to Mark Edwards:

This is worrying and may have a big influence on tomorrow's announcement....

BBC News - Coronavirus: Almost 100 staff at food factories test positive
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53091149

 rgd1977 18 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

It’s all about politics, just the same as little Jimmy Krankie North of the border. 

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 Sl@te Head 19 Jun 2020
In reply to Mark Edwards:

> I feel that perhaps it’s time to relax things a bit here too.

Another lap, another 2 weeks....at least.....

BBC News - Coronavirus: 'Stay local' travel rules could end in two weeks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-53090890

 Toccata 19 Jun 2020
In reply to Sl@te Head:

But we can stay over from the 13th! My Mum (in Scotland) is wondering about the legalities and ethics of travelling to visit family in Wales (and stay in a holiday cottage).

 richprideaux 19 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

It's all a bit crap.

- 2 Snowdonia tourism 'infrastructure' businesses are going to close their doors permanently, both names you would recognise

- have been told by a UK government procurement bod that Welsh training providers will be downgraded when bidding for future contracts etc due to the instability and unpredictability of the Welsh restrictions

- an estate agent friend on Anglesey has said that there is a sudden increase of enquiries for second-home investments as "they're going to be begging for a sale soon". North Wales has a reasonable balance of tourism/real community still unlike parts of Cornwall etc - if the economy continues to plummet then this will surely change.

The tourism economy in Wales (worth billions p/a) is focused on North and West Wales, far from the decision makers and Labour-voting South. It is very much a political exercise now - England has shown there is not a sudden spike in deaths following relaxation of restrictions, and Wales has hardly shown that a stricter lockdown was actually effective. 

It's now arse-covering, pandering to their voters in Merthyr and Barry and proving that a devolved government can ignore Westminster.

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OP Danbow73 19 Jun 2020
In reply to richprideaux:

So we can stay over from the start of july!

Only self contained so looks like campsites are out. Seems a bit silly as people will come in vans and they're gonna need to go to the toilet somewhere...

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gezebo 19 Jun 2020

I’m looking at booking a few days away before the autumn. I was thinking Mid Wales but not anymore while loony drakeford is in charge. I suspect many others will be reluctant to commit to north Wales at present either. 
 

Drakeford seems to have forgotten all about North Wales and it’s geography with his well publicised but unenforceable 5 mile rule. For example my children’s school is over 5 miles away, and why open shops if people can’t travel to them. Oh wait they can if they think it’s local but then their local hill/mountain (one or two miles away) is closed to prevent the spread of Covid? So I can travel to virtually any shop within 20-30 miles as long as I feel it’s ‘local’ and justifiable, I can also travel any distance to a friend/relative who is struggling.
 

Equally natural resources Wales are just as bonkers in opening their car parks to walkers but keeping the mtb trails ‘closed’. 

In fact the whole situation is crazy in Wales with the Cardiff central Welsh Labour crowd battling the conservative led Westminster crowd. But let’s remember that the Welsh Government forced transport for wales to change the train timetable get more trains to South Wales from the North (via England) which was at the sacrifice of people in north Wales being unable to catch the train to work anymore as to accommodate Cardiff’s request the trains had to now skip stations out in the north. This is the mentality of Drakeford and co. We’re stuffed, we really are.  

Post edited at 21:43
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 mik82 19 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

If people are bringing vans and not staying on campsites then they really should be sorting their toilet situation out themselves.

OP Danbow73 19 Jun 2020
In reply to mik82:

I agree, some will but some will also crap in the laybys in the pass...

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 mik82 21 Jun 2020
In reply to Danbow73:

I suspect these will be the same kind of people that would happily crap in the laybys even when all the campsites and public toilets are open.


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