UKH

For the last few weeks the Russians have targeting Ukrainian infrastructure- power stations, substations.  Clearly the Russians haven’t run out of missiles like some experts were claiming. Millions are without power or heating.

Will the Russians freeze the country into defeat?

It worked quite well against Napoleon and that German chap. Why change something that works?

Its not a nice thing to do, but neither is invading a country and killing the locals. It will also impact the Russian troops, who may be occupying buildings and using heat and power. Many, but not all, of the civilians who will be affected, have escape routes available, to neighbouring countries. I think it will back fire on Vlad. The Ukrainian troops wont run off to help find fuel for their families. The west will step up their support. The war will carry on.

But the armaments industry and the rest of the military support infrastructure in Ukraine considerably handicapped.

But not nearly as handicapped as Russia is by corruption.

Some, but many are from the east and are cold weather wise, not so much conscripted moscow city slickers. It will impact moral though. 

I'm pondering if any of those big slow rivers Russia has retreated behind ever freeze over in winter, could be a chance of some sneaky SF night time raids. 

Their troops can just sit where they are whilst Putin carries on bombarding Ukraine into submission. What can the Ukrainians do?

It goes both ways. Dug in Russian troops will be sitting ducks for experienced Ukrainian troops armed with western weapons. 

It will make the Ukrainians fight harder, Russia is hoping they'll just sit tight for winter, I expect a major Ukrainian offensive mid winter, killing putins hope of a big push in spring with his conscripts. 

Videos on twitter are revealing.

Horrendous mud and grime in Ukrainian trenches with poor shelter and general misery. Having said that the Ukrainians are being rotated out after 4 or 5 days to dry out, get fresh clothes, food and warmth. Groups of Ukrainian women are knitting warm socks, balaclavas and other items to send to the front. Others groups are making home cooked ration pack meals and tins of hearty soup, all sent to the front lines as moral boosters. 

Russian mobiks are having to dig foxholes under artillery fire, once in place there is very little chance of rotation, relentless wet squalid conditions and the prospect of temperatures dropping to minus 10 without winter clothing. If it's not happening yet, mass Russian casualties from hypothermia are going to massively weaken Russian advances. 

Both sides face the constant threat of being bombed by 100-300g explosives dropped from drones which are often too small and quiet to see until it's too late. Those who survive this war are going to have serious PTSD from open sky. 

I'm not sure that any amount of cold weather wisdom will make up for the Russian Mobiks not having adequate cold weather clothing or shelter. Have you seen the video of Russian troops whose only shelter was cling film stretched between trees?

Note also the references above to Napoleon in Russia.  In this case the badly equipped invading army with a history of not being able to supply itself is coming from the east. 

It seems clear to me that the job of the mobilised Russian forces is to slow the loss of ground by repeatedly flooding it with people to be killed by either hypothermia or the Ukrainians, with no intent to advance and with no expectation of even holding the ground for that long.  

They are deliberately trading mobilised lives for time, and they are using that time to inflict the maximum possible damage on the infrastructure Ukraine needs to shepherd it’s civilians through this winter by means of long distance standoff arial weapons.  

They are most likely doing this to try and force Ukraine to make concessions in return for a ceasefire, which Russia would only obey up until the point they could successfully return to the offensive.

What next?  As the cold saps Russian endurance perhaps a lien from Zaporizhzhia to Berdyans'k will fall to a Ukrainian offensive, further isolating Crimea, the fall of which precipitates Putin’s demise.

The weather brings a step increase in misery to the civilians and soldiers alike. 

This is the crucial point in thinking about how the war will end. Russia doesn't negotiate in good faith, any concessions made by Ukraine would just be a sign of weaknesses, prompting further attacks when it suits Russia.

Nothing but a total removal of invading forces from Ukraine's territory will ensure any sort of lasting peace. Even then, it's probably only a few decades until another Putin mkII decides to regrow the empire.

Back to the present. I think there's a real chance of thousands of mobiks freezing to death, their commanders really don't care. 

A quick google tells me it gets to around -20c. I remember seeing film about the Russians driving tanks and trucks across frozen lakes, during the second world war. I'm wondering, if some of these big rivers, will be less of a barrier than they are now. Just how frozen do these rivers get? Can you drive a car/truck/tank over them? It could be the start of a winter campaign for either side.

I found these guidelines, so it seems to be a regular thing in the US.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/safety/ice/thickness.html

Interesting article on the BBC today about Moldova https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63792499

I wonder if this could draw the EU into the fray even more than it currently is?

Tank nope, car, skidoo, ski, foot... yeah. It just lengths the line of defences up stream the Russians need to defend, Ukraine can use it's SF to strike through weaknesses, they've been out last night with their drones hitting Russian supply lines.

River ice, isn't like lakes, it takes long to freeze, can have thin patches, unless it has prolonged cold i doubt they'll drive much over any rivers, but stealth trips on foot must be a consideration. 

Boats are a thing. As are Russian BMP's which are amphibious.

Of course, but they are much easier to detect than a small group crossing on foot. I doubt they'll try to retake land across the river in winter, but they could harass the life out of those conscripts, hit supplies etc.. The Russians do love a big hovercraft, but they are sitting targets for anti tank weapons. 

It's a bloody brave bloke (or one who'll get shot if he doesn't) who'd test the amphibious capabilities of BMP/BTR!

Go properly old school and copy the mongols invasion of Russia by riding horses.

Like when entering water in an older bv hoping the seals are still good! 

or a CET with new tracks that are 300kg heavier than the original design (otherwise known as 'a sound procurement decision made after a thorough evaluation of the merits of the proposals')

The ones I've seen trundling across the Danube seemed to do fine.

Useful and extensive analysis on winter and the Ukraine war just posted by the Lanterne Rouge here:

youtube.com/watch?v=PI3PpsM3NOI&

from my esbach handbook of engineering fundamentals (1948) 

the sustaining capacity of ice is not definitely determined ;  2" of ice is considered safe for infantry, 4" is safe for cavalry and light guns, 6" for heavy field guns, 8" of ice for loads not over 1000lb per square foot on sledges and railway trains have been run on 15” of ice. 

expansive force of ice is 30,000 lb per square foot.  the coefficient of expansion, as given by ganot is 0.000052,  by its expansion a sheet of ice 150ft wide has been known to move a 1000 tone masonry bridge pillars on pile foundation from 2” to 12” if the ice is 5” thick

the russians laid railway traks on frozen rivers in the war, when the were bombed they left it to refreeze and put the track back down , if it was damaged they just replaced it and good to go again..

Kherson - average overnight low temperatures are a bit below freezing, average daytime high above zero. 

Luhansk further north away from Black Sea a few degrees colder and average daytime high dips below zero.

https://weatherspark.com/y/97401/Average-Weather-in-Kherson-Ukraine-Year-Ro...

https://weatherspark.com/y/101411/Average-Weather-in-Markivka-Ukraine-Year-...

Pretty comprehensive assessment - thanks for finding that.

My main concern isn't their military, nor the Russian's poor clothing - it thats true!  We all know that expensive outdoor kit won't make you a better mountaineer - or soldier - many managed without it before Goretex and man made fibre clothing etc.,

My concern also mentioned in your link, is the fact that the Ukrainian civilian population is largely without power, and for many (the majority?) I doubt there are open fires in their flats.  How long will/can they support a war in the far east of their country before the pressure is on to negotiate a way out with the Russians.  Surely another factor is how long can the Ukrainian  leadership continue to put their population through a cold, harsh winter with dysfunctional infrastructure?  If they do won't that make them appear to as bad as the Russian leadership making their troops fight  & die with allegedly poor winter clothing?  

In the report he mentioned the willingness of the populations of Stalingrad, Japan and so on to put up with appalling conditions, but Ukraine isn't fighting in Russia, nor are the populations of Ukrainian cities being bombed flat like those countries in in WW2 or under siege - they are simply having their power & water turned of by long range Russian missiles, despite many 'experts', claiming they've got none left.

Meanwhile the population of Russia is nice and warm and safe.

In some areas like Kherson people have been advised to evacuate to other areas with more reliable services, how many have done so isn't clear. They were talking about evacuations from Kyiv a few weeks back when the first few missile strikes on electrical infrastructure started, however air defences have been improved and are now shooting down 80-90% of cruise missiles. Those missiles are essentially irreplaceable by Russia, there are only so many more times 70 odd missiles can be fired without actually making a difference to Ukrainian forces.

As for heating apartment blocks, it's mainly district heating, so once you repair the heat source (or the power to it) then everything turns back on. Hundreds of diesel generators have been donated from all across Europe. Some are large enough to run critical care services in hospitals. The major issue is sourcing spare parts for transformers, they're probably swapping anything in from other countries if it'll work.

You can't negotiate with the Russians. They agreed to the Minsk deals in order to buy time. Capitulation will end in anything under Russian control being striped and taken back to Russia. There are reports of Ukrainian children having been relocated to Russia already and resettled with other families, it's not a stretch to say that Ukrainian identity is under threat.

It's a war and it's really really grim for everyone involved. Not sure what else can be done at this point.

Apart from the tens of thousands of conscripts who have been killed. Videos are now appearing on twitter of Russians in fox holes too weak to run from drones even when under attack, they appear to be suffering from severe hypothermia. 

Worth watching all of Perun's stuff. He's forensic. 

Come across the "invincibility points"?

youtube.com/watch?v=H77oCgtNVU0&

https://nitter.hu/ChrisO_wiki/status/1599043912861106176#m

I'm not sure the two situations are directly comparable, the Ukrainians suffering Putin's attacks on their life support have been wronged which is a powerful motivator, the Russians by contrast are pouring poorly motivated conscripts into a meatgrinder to keep the pressure up and delay the inevitable whether that be escalation or failure, there must eventually be a change.

I don't think anyone has said Russia have no missiles left. What is often said is that their stock of large, precision guided, long range weapons is coming under severe pressure, both from the high rate of use and the low rate of replenishment assumed possible. They do appear to hold large stocks of lower precision and repurposed missiles and have some access to new supplies from abroad which they're using to significant effect against infrastructure.

Surely the point about the really grim sieges of history is not that Ukraine's cities have to be turned to rubble and rats to emulate them but that people with their backs to the wall time and again make do and endure the truly unbelievable, they do not quit, often to the last person standing.

I'm not sure taking the fight to the Russian civilians would have the effect one might assume. Like the Ukrainians living under a form of siege now they would likely resolve to endure and fight back rather than pressure the Kremlin to quit.

jk

I don't follow the logic. Ukraine has suffered almost a year of relentless attacks from Russia, and the Ukrainian people are now going to start blaming their own leaders for the situation?

You make the Russians sound like a utility company who wants you to pay off an outstanding bill then get a coin meter fitted. I think that's extremely disingenuous. They're waging an uprovoked war by deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians, and committing war crimes in areas they occupy.

You actually think the Ukrainians aren't going to fight to stop them?

Taking the fight to Russian civilians would be highly motivating for Russia soldiers on the front line just as it is for Ukraine and was for UK or Germany in WW2.

We currently supply weapons to a democracy that avoids systematic war crimes fighting a dictatorship committing systematic war crimes.

The broad political support for supplying weapons to Ukraine would be at risk if the weapons supplied were used for war crimes for marginal (if any) military gain.

Ukraine has shown itself to be politically very savvy in being "the good guys" or simply very aware of where their weapons are coming from.

Did I give the impression I was arguing for tit for tat targeting of Russian civilians? I was arguing against it for the reasons you agree with and elaborate on.

jk

Like a microcosm of the original cold war, it comes down to a slow war of economic attrition (with a LOT of ordinary people left suffering in the midst).

The Russians lost that game before, but the joker in the pack this time is China. Last time China were politically, economically and technologically subordinate to Russia, this time the tables have turned. How much will China prop up Russia and at at what cost to Russia?

Sorry, I was replying in agreement and not making that clear.

You keep asserting that the experts say the Russians have no missiles left. Who has said that? I've not seen one such claim. Sounds like you are setting up a straw man or is it that you've just had enough of experts?

There are lots of assessments that the Russians have burned through a lot of their PGM stocks 20-80% depending on type and, if they want to keep any in reserve against fears of really having to fight NATO (or, more likely, one of their other neighbours they've recently p'd off and who might think that whilst Russia is distracted and has few modern weapons left is a good time for revenge) they will have to cut back on usage. And we are seeing evidence of that - compared to the early days, they have cut back on usage and missiles are being used for things they weren't intended for: anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles being used against ground targets, expensive missiles designed to deliver nuclear warheads being used for conventional loads.

CNN are running an opinion piece today that I thought was worth reading.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/06/europe/russia-ukraine-strikes-analysis-i...

Girkin/ Strelkov (the ultranationalist who shot down the Dutch airliner) is back on telegram.

The gist of the back story is that he went to the front (possibly to avoid being charged with discrediting the military, so wasn’t posting) and wasn’t allowed to legally fight, but went anyway and now is back in Moscow. 

Below is a very dodgy translation of his latest telegram post, but pretty much sums of the current issues and coming from an ultranationalist is pretty telling:

“Naturally, I intend to keep the vast majority of my impressions and conclusions to myself. To, so to speak, "not to discredit". Positive impressions - I will share in the upcoming (hopefully) video conferences. But there are not too many of them - in relation to the negative ones.

And now I will only note that the basis of all our "increasing victories" on the fronts and directions of the NMD is the deepest crisis of strategic planning. Simply put, the troops are fighting "by inertia", not having the slightest idea of the ultimate strategic goals of the current military campaign… 

…So - in the army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (and parts of the Armed Forces of the LDNR, although there the fighters have much more motivation) apathy prevails.

The absence of a clear military-political strategy does not allow the military to develop tactics that will contribute to its implementation. In the meantime - "on a whim" - the RF Armed Forces are preparing for a protracted positional war, building long-term structures along the entire front... The fact that following the strategy of a protracted war is suicide for the Russian Federation…

Therefore, watching how the enemy slowly (and without encountering any opposition) implements his own strategic tasks with the complete passivity of the military and political authorities of the Russian Federation, I do not expect anything good at the front in the coming weeks.

And, yes, - the so-called. "Ukraine" will NOT freeze in winter, will NOT rebel and will NOT fight worse. Vice versa. Its soldiers, who have already believed in their strength as a result of the autumn victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and are fully supported by NATO, will only fight harder and harder against the "Muscovites", avenging the hardships that their relatives and friends in the rear are forced to bear…

”

No. Edit - to expand on that: winter passes, missile stocks get exhausted but life is irretrievable. Ukrainians know all too well what Russian occupation means for them. They also know that a ceasefire would only be an opportunity for Putin to rearm and refit his forces. I doubt there will be many willing to negotiate unless Putin is willing to withdraw completely - which he isn’t, yet.

If the West actually gives Ukraine what it needs in the amount it needs it, this could all be wrapped up by the end of next summer.

There are some amphibious ones, yes.

-20 is not out of the ordinary in Moscow, even these days. What really matters though is how you are equipped and housed and that’s where the mobilised forces are stuffed. Corruption and an uncaring attitude from commanders is a bad combination in harsh winter conditions.

You have to appreciate one important factor: as a general rule, Russian commanders don’t care about their subordinates. That’s an attitude which was ingrained in Soviet times, when life was cheap - and it still is.

A couple of nuances to add.

As well as holding ground, the Russians are still attacking in a couple of areas, notably around Bakhmut. Crazy attacks which cost a lot of lives for little gain. Of course we saw the same in early summer around Severodonetsk. If anything, this plays into the hands of the Ukrainians by attriting Russian offensive (and defensive) potential.

Winter means frozen ground, which makes it feasible for wheeled vehicles in particular to move cross country, avoiding roads. Russian forces have been reluctant to go off road throughout (one of the many reasons their Kiev offensive failed) but Ukrainian forces have been a lot more nimble and will exploit the opportunity.

The ISW looked at Russian defensive positions in Eastern Kherson and noted that they are focused on roads and junctions, so Ukrainians could just outflank them (though I still can’t imagine a full scale crossing of the Dnipro with subsequent logistical support - your idea of a Zaporizhzhia offensive seems more likely).

Indeed, not least in Taiwan… I fear you are right about Putin Mk II - all the more reason to wean ourselves off gas and oil.

Indeed.