True cost of Brexit

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 WaterMonkey 16 Oct 2019

Found out today that the paperwork changes required to continue trading with the EU after brexit, will cost the company I work for £800,000 every year. We only trade with the EU for 20% of our business. 

This isn’t project fear, or worse case, this is the actual cost for the new papers when we leave.

well done brexiteers.

Any other examples of genuine cost of this rediculous idea?

4
 tom r 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

What is the turnover of the business?

OP WaterMonkey 16 Oct 2019
In reply to tom r:

> What is the turnover of the business?

Not sure about turnover, I’ll find out tomorrow. There’s been years when we haven’t made that as a profit though.

4
 tom r 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

I guess if the company has struggled to make a profit an extra £800,000 in cost is a major blow to the company. 

In reply to WaterMonkey:

£800k per year is an absolutely astonishing figure. I don't see how it's possible, but will take your word for it. What is so astonishing is that there are allegedly sane adults pursuing this crap with a kind of religious fanaticism.

2
 Trevers 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

Pfft, those costs would vanish in an instant if you just believed a little bit more.

3
pasbury 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

The cost I worry about is that put on my children. This ridiculous project will impact them the most. As if intergenerational inequality isn't bad enough already.

3
 Dax H 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

What are these charges for that will = £800k per annum? 

The last I heard a deal has not been struck yet and its looking more and more like BoJo will be requesting an extension. 

Until the terms deal or a no deal are rattified we don't know what the cost will be. 

Lusk 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

> £800,000 every year. We only trade with the EU for 20% of our business. 

Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

52
 Philip 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

The reality is you'll apply those costs to sale in EU, either losing business as uncompetitive or reducing profit. Either way UK loses potential tax revenue, gains some unemployed, and increases the fixed overheads on your UK sales, opening them up to competition from cheaper EU imports.

pasbury 16 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

What a brilliant idea, why?

 Trevers 16 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

That's an utterly tw*ttish reply.

4
OP WaterMonkey 16 Oct 2019
In reply to Dax H:

> What are these charges for that will = £800k per annum? 

> The last I heard a deal has not been struck yet and its looking more and more like BoJo will be requesting an extension. 

> Until the terms deal or a no deal are rattified we don't know what the cost will be. 

There are adverts everywhere telling businesses to prepare and that they’ll need papers for trading with Europe. I assume the government hasn’t just made this up and that they know, deal or no deal, that traders will need papers. What’s written on them may change but they will be needed.

I’ll try and get more detail tomorrow about the cost implications. 

 bouldery bits 16 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

This is the best thing on UKC. 

Mods, can we perma-pin this to the top of the forum? 

1
 bouldery bits 16 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

>  I assume the government hasn’t just made this up and that they know, deal or no deal, that traders will need papers.

Given recent events, I'd just assume they have made it up.

 Lord_ash2000 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Trevers:

  > Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

> That's an utterly tw*ttish reply.

Sounds like sensible advise to me if what the OP says is correct. If some years they fail to make 800k profit total then it seems unlikely that even in a normal year they make 800k profit on just the 20% of EU sales. 

It's hard to comment really until we know the turnover of the business but 800k for some mystery paperwork seems excessive to me. However if it is the case then EU sales for that business would seem unviable post brexit unless they significantly increased costs (part offset by the weakening pound) or looked at expanding other overseas markets where the weaker pound might give them a more competitive edge than before.

Leaving the EU will change the trading environment for companies and if companies want to thrive in this new landscape they need to adapt. I accept it costs money to adapt but it must be done, to blindly carry on as before and just suffer the extra costs regardless is inviting bankruptcy.

It's a competitive world out there, there will be business models which work now but won't post brexit and there will be business models which aren't viable now which will become so. All companies need to be constantly adapting, whether it's to new technology, consumer trends, eco friendlyness, or international trading environments. 

30
OP WaterMonkey 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

Not trading with the EU is not an option. We are part of an EU packaging firm. 

 john arran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

You appear to readily accept that 20% of a business needs to be cut in an instant, presumably with associated staff redundancies. How is that different, in practice, to one in 5 similar businesses going to the wall as a direct result of Brexit? Would that also be a price worth paying?

And if adapting to a changing environment will help, what makes you so sure that this and other companies aren't already doing their level best to adapt? Are there specific EU-imposed regulations that are preventing this? In which case, what are they and why have we not heard about them before and seen the UK government try to get them reformed, given that they're so damaging to UK companies' prospects?

Or is it now reduced to tribalism at any cost?

2
 jethro kiernan 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

And in breaking news

man considering shooting himself in foot is advised that buying crutches is the best available option 😏

1
 stevieb 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> It's hard to comment really until we know the turnover of the business but 800k for some mystery paperwork seems excessive to me.

£800k per year does seem high, but I think an awful lot of businesses are looking at one off costs well in excess of that. The company I work for has probably burned through hundreds of hours of senior management time and legal consultancy to deal with the still ill-defined consequences of Brexit.

 Trevers 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

Regardless of whether it's sensible, practicable or even theoretically possible for the company to change its business model (remember we still don't know whether we're leaving at all, letalone the mode of leaving), I found Lusk's attitude expressed in that comment to be deeply arrogant and callous. I stand by my response to it.

2
 mattrm 17 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

Where I work we buy a lot of American IT kit.  We've seen a steady increase in costs (and then uncertainty of costs) due to the exchange rate fluctuation.  

OP WaterMonkey 17 Oct 2019
In reply to tom r:

> What is the turnover of the business?

About £350-400m

 Lord_ash2000 17 Oct 2019
In reply to john arran:

Some businesses will go to the wall I'm sure of it. But I'm also sure we'll get plenty of new companies popping up to exploit whatever new opportunities present themselves in our post-Brexit world.

Overall I've no doubt there will be a short term economic hit as like I said above, adapting costs money. Some will manage it, some won't and fall by the wayside but others will spring up to replace them. In terms of overall GDP though I doubt we'll see much of a hit, maybe a slump in the first year or so but it'll soon pick up again.

Trade deals with the EU will get sorted soon enough once both sides are motivated by a bit of pain and what we lose in EU sales we can make up for by putting effort into bolstering international trade, again a bit of motivation goes a long way.

Of course, no one really knows how anything will pan out when you look, 10, 20 30 years down the road. The further we get into the future the harder and harder it'll be to separate what would have happened if we'd done XYZ compared to what has happened. Richer or poorer we'll always have people arguing over whether it's because we let the EU or not.  
   

25
 john arran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Some businesses will go to the wall I'm sure of it. But I'm also sure we'll get plenty of new companies popping up to exploit whatever new opportunities present themselves in our post-Brexit world.

So you agree with my first point, people will lose their livelihoods.

But you sidestepped my second point, which is where these "new opportunities" are going to look like. If they aren't possible now then our EU membership must be what's stopping them happening. So what is it about being in the EU that's preventing us taking advantage of this brave new world of opportunity? Labour regulation? Environmental regulation? Tax structure?

1
 Bob Kemp 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Some businesses will go to the wall I'm sure of it. But I'm also sure we'll get plenty of new companies popping up to exploit whatever new opportunities present themselves in our post-Brexit world.

> Overall I've no doubt there will be a short term economic hit as like I said above, adapting costs money. Some will manage it, some won't and fall by the wayside but others will spring up to replace them. In terms of overall GDP though I doubt we'll see much of a hit, maybe a slump in the first year or so but it'll soon pick up again.

What grounds do you have for saying that? 

 Hat Dude 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

Lead us onward, Brexit, lead us
Up the future's endless stair:
Chop us, change us, prod us, weed us.
For stagnation is despair:
Groping, guessing, yet progressing,
Lead us nobody knows where.

Wrong or justice in the present,
Joy or sorrow, what are they
While there's always jam to-morrow,
While we tread the onward way?
Never knowing where we're going,
We can never go astray.

(Apologies to CS Lewis for the appropriation of "Evolutionary Hymn")

1
 Lord_ash2000 17 Oct 2019
In reply to john arran:

Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them. As for regulations, yes we'll be free to set what we want and if a few tweaks here and there help the economy then great, we'll see what happens but don't imagine we're going to suddenly change into some super capitalist dog eat dog world overnight, we still have the same electorate and they'll only vote for so much. 

Also, a lot of the opportunities are things we could probably do now from within the EU but there simply isn't the motivation to seek them, once the pressure is on people can be amazingly resourceful when it comes to seeking new ways of making money.

If you like, think of it a bit like working a steady job but then quitting to go self-employed. There are risks, there are plenty of unknowns but there are opportunities and freedoms as well. You'll get the naysayers telling you how can you be sure you'll get paid enough, there is no security, what if it all goes wrong? And yeah, it's an unpredictable path, you'll have a general idea of what you'll do and how you'll do it but there is no way anyone can plan with any accuracy everything that's going to happen with your business as the years go by. Who knows you might end up making a fortune from something you never even knew existed when you first handed your notice in years ago. 

Also, and maybe it's just a mindset but there is a certain satisfaction on making choices for yourself rather than doing as you're told, even if that choice is for the same thing. For example, you might have been forced to start work at 9am, but as a self-employed person you might still start at 9am, but there is a satisfaction in knowing it's because you decided to, not because you were made to. The same applies at a national level when it comes to making your own regulations.

 

23
 Ian W 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

I think that over the next couple of years, you are in for a very rude awakening.

1
OP WaterMonkey 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them.

Apart from an EU country.

I hear countless Brexiteers say Germany and France will be falling over themselves to make a deal with us. They won't, if they are tied by the same ties we apparently have they won't be able to make new deals with us.

 jkarran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

Poe's law strikes again.

jk

2
 Andy Hardy 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

 

> Also, and maybe it's just a mindset but there is a certain satisfaction on making choices for yourself rather than doing as you're told, even if that choice is for the same thing. For example, you might have been forced to start work at 9am, but as a self-employed person you might still start at 9am, but there is a satisfaction in knowing it's because you decided to, not because you were made to. The same applies at a national level when it comes to making your own regulations.

Have you never heard of non-tarriff barriers? That is why the single market exists, and why the UK and 27 other nations agreed to common standards.
And when we leave the single market, the EU will still be our biggest export market, so we still have to "do as we're told", only without any say in the rules

1
 jkarran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Trade deals with the EU will get sorted soon enough once both sides are motivated by a bit of pain and what we lose in EU sales we can make up for by putting effort into bolstering international trade, again a bit of motivation goes a long way.

Of course motivation goes further in a firm that can afford to invest in developing those new connections because it isn't distressed as a result of leaving the EU.

How is EU membership stopping UK business trading globally? The Germans seem to manage rather better. Or perhaps it's not the EU at all, perhaps it has something to do with true portability of goods vs services and our misshapen economy which brexit looks only to exacerbate.

jk

1
 john arran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

Thank you for the reply.

> Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them.

Who are we not able to trade with now that we would like to be able to?

And, what justification do you have for thinking we will be able to agree better terms, from a position of being a single nation clearly in urgent need of deals, than from being a prominent member of one of the leading world trading blocs? It simply doesn't add up to anything beyond wishful thinking. 

> As for regulations, yes we'll be free to set what we want and if a few tweaks here and there help the economy then great, we'll see what happens but don't imagine we're going to suddenly change into some super capitalist dog eat dog world overnight, we still have the same electorate and they'll only vote for so much. 

So what kind of "tweaks" do you have in mind? Either they're small enough not to make much of a difference or they're big enough that the people should be aware of what's in store before we finally pull the trigger.

> Also, a lot of the opportunities are things we could probably do now from within the EU but there simply isn't the motivation to seek them, once the pressure is on people can be amazingly resourceful when it comes to seeking new ways of making money.

I agree that necessity can be the mother of all sorts of positive things, but I'm not convinced that manufacturing adversity in the hope of prospering from it it the wisest of plans.

> If you like, think of it a bit like working a steady job but then quitting to go self-employed. There are risks, there are plenty of unknowns but there are opportunities and freedoms as well. You'll get the naysayers telling you how can you be sure you'll get paid enough, there is no security, what if it all goes wrong? And yeah, it's an unpredictable path, you'll have a general idea of what you'll do and how you'll do it but there is no way anyone can plan with any accuracy everything that's going to happen with your business as the years go by. Who knows you might end up making a fortune from something you never even knew existed when you first handed your notice in years ago. 

If you quit your job to go self-employed you would be foolish not to have done your homework and have at least a reasonable expectation of being able to replace your salary or quality of life with alternative opportunities. Few would encourage giving up a job with little or no idea what it could be replaced with, simply that 'it'll be reet'.

> Also, and maybe it's just a mindset but there is a certain satisfaction on making choices for yourself rather than doing as you're told, even if that choice is for the same thing. For example, you might have been forced to start work at 9am, but as a self-employed person you might still start at 9am, but there is a satisfaction in knowing it's because you decided to, not because you were made to. The same applies at a national level when it comes to making your own regulations.

If you're going down that rabbit hole then nobody would get married, join a club or indeed compromise on anything at all to achieve things they couldn't do alone. It whiffs of seeking post-hoc justification for having shot yourself in the foot, which remains the best analogy for this whole shit-show we have so far.

1
 johang 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them. As for regulations, yes we'll be free to set what we want and if a few tweaks here and there help the economy then great, we'll see what happens but don't imagine we're going to suddenly change into some super capitalist dog eat dog world overnight, we still have the same electorate and they'll only vote for so much.

This assumes we will have similar bargaining power to that we do as part of a large block. I agree, we are constrained by membership, but my opinion is that the constraint is well worth the extra clout we get from belonging to the club.

> Also, a lot of the opportunities are things we could probably do now from within the EU but there simply isn't the motivation to seek them, once the pressure is on people can be amazingly resourceful when it comes to seeking new ways of making money.

Crime is the first option that springs to mind. Difficult to make much out of nothing any other way.

> If you like, think of it a bit like working a steady job but then quitting to go self-employed. There are risks, there are plenty of unknowns but there are opportunities and freedoms as well. You'll get the naysayers telling you how can you be sure you'll get paid enough, there is no security, what if it all goes wrong?

No, it isn't. Aside from the unpredictability as a common factor, the freedom you get from becoming self employed (personal freedom) does not equate to a country's freedom. You're conflating experience for a singular entity with the much more difficult to manage, experience for a very wide range of people. The responsibility isn't just for if it goes wrong for *only you and your family*. It's for if it goes wrong *for the entire f*cking country*

>And yeah, it's an unpredictable path, you'll have a general idea of what you'll do and how you'll do it but there is no way anyone can plan with any accuracy everything that's going to happen with your business as the years go by. Who knows you might end up making a fortune from something you never even knew existed when you first handed your notice in years ago. 

Er. I don't think anyone has a general idea of what and how Brexit is being done at all, other than as an omnishambles. Also, the country is not a business. And if it were, we're already losing money, fast, and we haven't even exited yet. Science has lost £100,000,000s from the cutting of collaborations. This isn't project fear, it is fact.

> Also, and maybe it's just a mindset but there is a certain satisfaction on making choices for yourself rather than doing as you're told, even if that choice is for the same thing. For example, you might have been forced to start work at 9am, but as a self-employed person you might still start at 9am, but there is a satisfaction in knowing it's because you decided to, not because you were made to. The same applies at a national level when it comes to making your own regulations.

Again, I agree with the sentiment but this is just conflating personal with population again.

 Jon Stewart 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> the same applies at a national level when it comes to making your own regulations.

What in the name of the Holy Lord are you talking about? Are you saying that "the nation" itself, an abstract construct rather than a conscious entity, will feel a sense of satisfaction in making its own regs? Do you mean that the civil servants drafting the regs will experience an uplift in job satisfaction? Or do you mean that all of us individually will get some sort of little psychological buzz out of knowing that business operates under British regs? 

Whatever way you cut it, that point is total rubbish! (The rest is just wishful thinking and irrelevant metaphor). 

1
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

"we still have the same electorate and they'll only vote for so much. "

Except we won't if Johnson gets his way with ID for voting.

1
 Lemony 17 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

We did a fag packet on the costs to us earlier today. We reckon £700,000 to our department and counting as one small department in a much bigger company. Guessing there's a few tens of millions down so far before opportunity costs.

1
 fred99 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them.

And just how do you negotiate a trade deal with the USA when Trump is completely unreliable, except for wanting to "screw over" anyone he deals with.

1
 Dave Garnett 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

I can see how the next referendum will go, at a time when we are trying to reduce emissions and young people are so sympathetic to XR.  After Brexit  we are 'free' to increase trade with people much further away.

 Lord_ash2000 17 Oct 2019
In reply to fred99:

> And just how do you negotiate a trade deal with the USA when Trump is completely unreliable, except for wanting to "screw over" anyone he deals with.

Very short term thinking. Trump won't be around forever, nor will any of the current batch of leaders. These things are about nations carving out their own paths in the world over centuries not if right now we like or dislike one government or the next.

And to Jon,

Yes, we as individuals will get that slight sense of satisfaction that the rules we are following are rules brought in by our own governments who we voted in for our own national interest. I know it might seem a bit intangible but it's hard to put a price on freedom and self-determination.

17
 Bob Kemp 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

The trouble is that freedom and self-determination in the modern world can only be achieved at the expense of isolation. You cannot trade with the wider world, you cannot fly out of the country, you can't operate an effective criminal justice system, to name but a few of the things that you can't do if you opt for some kind of illusory freedom. You have to accept international rules, regulations and law. Unless you're North Korea of course...

1
 jimtitt 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Very short term thinking. Trump won't be around forever, nor will any of the current batch of leaders. These things are about nations carving out their own paths in the world over centuries not if right now we like or dislike one government or the next.

> And to Jon,

> Yes, we as individuals will get that slight sense of satisfaction that the rules we are following are rules brought in by our own governments who we voted in for our own national interest. I know it might seem a bit intangible but it's hard to put a price on freedom and self-determination.


I'd think almost everybody prefers the freedoms we've got from the European courts than the alternatives from various  British governments

2
 Ian W 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Very short term thinking. Trump won't be around forever, nor will any of the current batch of leaders. These things are about nations carving out their own paths in the world over centuries not if right now we like or dislike one government or the next.

Didn't the leader of the house say we wouldn't benefit for several decades?

> And to Jon,

> Yes, we as individuals will get that slight sense of satisfaction that the rules we are following are rules brought in by our own governments who we voted in for our own national interest. I know it might seem a bit intangible but it's hard to put a price on freedom and self-determination.

no it isnt - best estimates are for a pretty swift fall in GDP of approx 5 - 8 % as tariffs hit, and companies relocate to Europe, who will be taking advantage of their new brexit based opportunities. 

2
 Dave Garnett 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> I know it might seem a bit intangible but it's hard to put a price on freedom and self-determination.

I'm perfectly happy being part of a free and self-determining member of the EU. 

1
 GrahamD 17 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

The true cost of Brexit ? Europe becomes a little bit meaner, a little bit more insular and a whole lot less relevant to the US and China on the world stage.

 Ian W 17 Oct 2019
In reply to GrahamD:

> The true cost of Brexit ? Europe becomes a little bit meaner, a little bit more insular and a whole lot less relevant to the US and China on the world stage.

Do explain?

 GrahamD 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Ian W:

Very simlpy, with the UK as a strong member of the EU, the EU is a much stronger trading block than if its fragmented.

The world super powers are the US and China.  Europe could have aspired to be best of the rest.

 john arran 17 Oct 2019
In reply to GrahamD:

> The true cost of Brexit ? The UK becomes a lot meaner, a lot more insular and a whole lot less relevant to the US and China on the world stage.

FTFY

2
 Blunderbuss 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Some businesses will go to the wall I'm sure of it. But I'm also sure we'll get plenty of new companies popping up to exploit whatever new opportunities present themselves in our post-Brexit world.

> Overall I've no doubt there will be a short term economic hit as like I said above, adapting costs money. Some will manage it, some won't and fall by the wayside but others will spring up to replace them. In terms of overall GDP though I doubt we'll see much of a hit, maybe a slump in the first year or so but it'll soon pick up again.

> Trade deals with the EU will get sorted soon enough once both sides are motivated by a bit of pain and what we lose in EU sales we can make up for by putting effort into bolstering international trade, again a bit of motivation goes a long way.

> Of course, no one really knows how anything will pan out when you look, 10, 20 30 years down the road. The further we get into the future the harder and harder it'll be to separate what would have happened if we'd done XYZ compared to what has happened. Richer or poorer we'll always have people arguing over whether it's because we let the EU or not.  

Lmao! You actually believe this nonsense... 

2
 Ian W 17 Oct 2019
In reply to GrahamD:

> Very simlpy, with the UK as a strong member of the EU, the EU is a much stronger trading block than if its fragmented.

> The world super powers are the US and China.  Europe could have aspired to be best of the rest.


What an odd way of thinking; The EU's (as distinct from Europe's) aspirations haven't changed, and it is no more fragmented than it was, its just one member nation less. And they have repeatedly said that they regret the UK's decision to leave. They haven't got any meaner at all. Their path will not alter, it'll just be without the UK, who have decided to go it alone. Put the other way, if the EU is stronger with the UK as a member, how much weaker is the UK now that it is no longer part of the EU trading bloc? And its hardly more insular; its most recent trade deal is with Japan (pop >100m).

Post edited at 19:22
 GrahamD 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Ian W:

The UK were a significant member of the EU (although not as significant as they should have been).  One of the msin 3, arguably.  By leaving we weaken the EU as well as weakening us.

 Tyler 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Very short term thinking. Trump won't be around forever, nor will any of the current batch of leaders. These things are about nations carving out their own paths in the world over centuries not if right now we like or dislike one government or the next.

Even if the US proves to be a stable partner in future the benefit of a US trade deal might be negligible. This from the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/40d74c90-85e5-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453), but quoting an official govt study, makes sobering reading:

"A 2018 cross-Whitehall study of the costs and benefits of Brexit estimated that a US free trade agreement would increase UK GDP by only 0.2 per cent after 15 years, a tiny fraction of the 2 to 8 per cent costs of Brexit during that time. Officials arrived at this conclusion because, like other experts, they saw the gains from a US trade deal to be small in comparison to losses from the EU. Since greater trade can boost the economy through cheaper imports and more efficient supply chains, the net effect would be to hurt UK growth in the long run."

Further, why do you think the EU don't have a deal with the US? One of the criticisms of the EU was that it was even thinking of TTIP because it was so onerous, what do you think a UK US deal will look like?

Trade deals with Japan, Singapore or Mercosur would be beneficial, co-incidentally all countries that have singed deals with the EU since the Brexit vote (in the case of Japan a deal has been struck which prevents them offering better terms to another country than have been granted to the EU).

Trade deals was the only tangible reason for Brexit you offered, the rest was just ephemeral wishing; the usual 'believe' shite.

Post edited at 22:16
1
 Tyler 17 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> It's a competitive world out there, there will be business models which work now but won't post brexit and there will be business models which aren't viable now which will become so.

Plenty of examples of the former around, do you have an ideas for the latter?

 Ian W 17 Oct 2019
In reply to GrahamD:

> The UK were a significant member of the EU (although not as significant as they should have been).  One of the msin 3, arguably.  By leaving we weaken the EU as well as weakening us.


Can't argue with that, but the UK leaving doesnt make the EU any more insular - its the UK that has done that to itself. Nobody has ever denied the EU will be weaker without the UK, but not THAT much weaker. The UK, however, will be significantly weaker, and the removal of freedom from uK citizens will restrict personal opportunities for however long it takes us to rejoin.

1
 fred99 18 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Very short term thinking. Trump won't be around forever, nor will any of the current batch of leaders. These things are about nations carving out their own paths in the world over centuries not if right now we like or dislike one government or the next.

However, he's there right now, and setting the tone for any possible deals - which won't amount to much anyway (see Tyler's response above).

Also by the time any future deals have been agreed, with anyone, then a good number of years (10, 20 ?) will have passed, and in that time we're going to be trading at a disadvantage with so many trading blocks that businesses will fold and jobs will be lost.

And how do we maintain current services - which most agree are at breaking point - let alone provide for the increasing numbers of aged/infirm with less taxes going to the Treasury, along with the increased number of unemployed also needing to be supported from this shrinking pot ?

1
 Timmd 22 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Start reducing your trade with the EU then.

Pardon this, but in what f*cking reality is a good thing that reducing trade with any sector is something a business needs to be doing?

FFS. 

Post edited at 19:57
1
 wercat 23 Oct 2019
In reply to Timmd:

I share your annoyance to the point of anger

 DaveHK 23 Oct 2019
In reply to the whole mad world:

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

OP WaterMonkey 23 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> Well for a start we're free to trade with whoever we want on whatever terms we can negotiate with them.

Under WTO rules that is simply not true.

“The most-favoured nation principle means that countries cannot discriminate between their trading partners. If state A grants state B a favour (such as a simplified licensing process), that same favour must be granted to all other WTO member states.”

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/What-would-trading-on-WTO-...

1
 DancingOnRock 23 Oct 2019
In reply to WaterMonkey:

Is that what you will have to pay to Europe, or is it money you’ll have to pay to new employees for the extra work involved? 

 neilh 23 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

From your comment I take it you have considerable experience of exporting to countries outside the EU?

Brexit is a nightmare for those of us who already do.

I am locked in a battle with the Brexit department about the zero information they are providing about information I need to to continue to export to  places like Mexcio and Japan post brexit.The classic simple example being Certificates of Origin.

Post edited at 10:47
 Ian W 23 Oct 2019
In reply to DancingOnRock:

Its the additional cost to get the paperwork done. No money gets paid to Europe (or anywhere else).for this kind of thing.

OP WaterMonkey 23 Oct 2019
In reply to DancingOnRock:

> Is that what you will have to pay to Europe, or is it money you’ll have to pay to new employees for the extra work involved? 

That's the internal cost plus the cost to the supplier of the correct paperwork at their end, approximately £75 per lorry

 JLS 23 Oct 2019
In reply to DaveHK:

> Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

Pull yourself together man. Come on, the ship may be sinking but that's no reason to lose your head. We're British. Stiff upper lip.

Post edited at 13:25
 keith sanders 23 Oct 2019
In reply to Lusk:

What a stupid reply ? And how long will take to get trade out of the EU.

keith s

pasbury 23 Oct 2019
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

>I know it might seem a bit intangible but it's hard to put a price on freedom and self-determination.

About £2000 a year apparently. I’m fairly strapped as it is what with actually working and paying tax and not having had a pay rise  above inflation rate for ten years. But whatever I’m just one of the middle, the tax cows. And I actually wouldn’t mind if I felt that my contribution mattered.

My self determination will be severely restricted because I’ll be poorer. ‘Our’ self determination as a nation will be severely restricted because 1) we’ll be poorer and 2) because we’ll be vulnerable to restrictive trade deals and will find it very hard to make ourselves richer.

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