/ The future of flying
So it’s early days yet with so many unknowns, but the general aviation world is taking a massive hit. Could this be the chance to rethink how we travel in the future? Reduce our flying, make it more expensive and reduce demand? Either way, the airline industry could look very different in a few months.
I’m hoping one medium term outcome might be sensibly priced train connections to Europe from Scotland - oh hang on, there’s at least two problems with that -
I'd like to see a return to the more sensible levels of flying of the 1990s - maybe one holiday by air a year, not jetting off every other weekend as many people do, and far more business done remotely.
That could be wishful thinking. I agree that airlines are in trouble and many may go out of business but the demand now exists and where demand exists someone usually finds a way to supply it. The growth will no doubt be slowed by the hit the world economy will undoubtedly take but eventually I think that air travel will be back to the old levels
If the industry is going to get hammered, we could take a moment to start taxing whatever phoenix emerges proportionately for direct and indirect costs...
> I think that air travel will be back to the old levels
but if there is a 14-day quarantine on arriving and return ??
That, and the reemergence of national carriers. Treat it like the infrastructure it is.
> I'd like to see a return to the more sensible levels of flying of the 1990s - maybe one holiday by air a year, not jetting off every other weekend as many people do, and far more business done remotely.
One or two within continent per decade seems more appropriate.
Possibly bye bye Boeing, commercial bit at least, military half probably separated and saved by USA government.
They won't let Boeing collapse, no way.
I wander if the national or global mindset will change or whether financial restrictions on flying would have to be enforced. It will be interesting to see what the improvements to global environment there have been at the end of this & if this helps change people’s minds.
In a model world the after the Corona-caper has settled down part-way through 2021, the government could put Brexit to one side whilst they allowed the civil service to actually look at things objectively and logically for Brexit, and reconvene on that topic, with their advice later in the year. In that intervening time, then the government could look at both things mentioned above, and thereby give a better balance to use of trains (including more logical and reasonable charging) and 'planes. Then perhaps there could be a reduction in the use of those metal tubes in the skies, and hence less pollution from the airline industry, whilst not allowing a real collapse. Yet I know that I'm living in cloud cuckoo land thinking all of that....
You will need a vaccine first to be allowed to fly overseas. Thats the critical thing. Once you have been vaccinated then the world is your oyster.So 18months/2 years away.
Until then it will only be those in critical areas that can travel.
There may need to be a price correction to the cost of flying which will impact who flies.
I think quarantine and tracking of individual who move between continents will increase - much like the massive overreaction to 9-11 changed airport security. Some could me minor - with rapid screening you could check people before they board cruise ships or long-haul flights.
I think the "we need to travel" mentality in business will change, and I speak as someone with teams on 3 continents. Companies will save money.
So flights will become more expensive. I wonder if you took the cost of a flight in the 70s or 80s and adjusted for inflation what the comparison would be. I found a graph for US which showed it was now half the 1980s price (inflation adjusted).
So drop the low margins (who go bust quickly) and you're looking at ~£500-1000/person return flights to Europe. Family holiday £3-4k with accommodation. Compared with stay in the UK £1k / week.
I'd like to hope that people would rethink their air travel(and other things that have changed since this virus took a hold) but I feel, unfortunately, everything will just go back to 'normal'.
With regard to home-working I don't think it will, to be honest. Some of it will, but not everyone.
But I think international travel is likely to be heavily disrupted for potentially 1-2 years, as for it to be safe the virus needs to have died down everywhere, not just here. I can see measures like mandatory 14 day quarantine on return in an official facility, which nobody is going to accept for a holiday.
If there's a silver lining to covid19, it's working from home has shown us it is possible, and the huge amounts of travel "for work" can be dispensed with. The huge amounts of time, and cost, and environmental issues that business travel rack up is no longer acceptable and covid19 should demontrate this. WhatsApp, Skype, Zoom have become bywords in the last two weeks, and should stay that way. It'll take a big shift in mindset to change the "face to face meetings are so much better" but the covid19 episode might just be enough to make that change. Face to face meetings do have their place, but at what cost, and we have seen what is possible during covid19 with the technology that we now have (4G etc and phones and good broadband) that we didn't have 10 years ago.
> There may need to be a price correction to the cost of flying which will impact who flies.
> So flights will become more expensive.
Why? A couple of years of worldwide recession, rock-bottom oil prices, an enormous fleet of mothballed aircraft, a stream of new aircraft from subsidised (rescued) manufacturers and an almost unlimited pool of unemployed aircrew doesn't look like the economic indicators for massive price increases in commercial flying.
> Why? A couple of years of worldwide recession, rock-bottom oil prices, an enormous fleet of mothballed aircraft, a stream of new aircraft from subsidised (rescued) manufacturers and an almost unlimited pool of unemployed aircrew doesn't look like the economic indicators for massive price increases in commercial flying.
and the richest billion people in the world will be interested in simply enjoying life after a time of restrictions
A British hiker emerged from five days alone in the mountains of New Zealand to find that the country had unexpectedly shut down in his absence.