UKH

The North Pole is on the move:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1

That’ll be everyone using their compasses far too much. We need to go all electric!

Maybe the burgeoning Flat Earth movement is creating such a density of density that it is exerting a gravitational pull on the liquid magma in the earths core.

Their date line map of the pole shows a clear pattern. Perhaps they can model it. You'd anticipate it to continue rapidly over the polar, then progressively slow down again in a few decades. The mysteries of the outer core. But then is the north pole really the south, hence why northern polarity compass needles are attracted to it. We just named it that way to save confusion!

The bigger question would be is this rotation over the pole part of a slower reversal over several thousands of years, or because of other factors like the earths rotation are pole reversals more rapid, as having poles nearer or on the equator defies what we  currently understand of geophysics. 

We appear to be overdue a complete reversal of magnetic poles during which time the Earths protective magnetic shield is reduced by as much as 95%. I know this wouldn't be good for electronics or cancer rates but would this be a mass extinction type event?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal

I think population reduction is possible, but not mass extinction. There have been several reversals in the time since the north American plate departed Eurasia, so far mass extinctions have been attributed to other factors. 

It might not be good for us daylight inhabiting furless humans. But plenty well protected and nocturnal creatures might thrive in comparison. 

The question would be how long it takes before the protection returns, it's likely to be longer than a few summers. Perhaps the preppers need to start stockpiling factor 50. 

I was expecting Wintertree to have replied by now. Perhaps he’s just nipped out to Boots?

First sunspots disappear then this?  it must be an alien conspiracy

Perhaps tinfoil, which is new for this reversal instance, might be our friend at last

I’m outing you as an active agent for Bacofoil.

Do you recommend i go long or short on aluminium futures? 

I suspect wintertree is in negotiations with Elon Musk to hire an underground boring machine. 

I'm afraid not - I prefer Mu-Metal

I think it's a more random process than that kind of statement suggests. It could start tomorrow or it could be stable for tens of millions of years yet.

We are not "overdue", just the current orientation has held for longer than average. The mean periodicity of magnetic reversals is not predictive!

We've already got one of those well underway..

Strewth! You science types don’t allow much for conversational English.

I might mention to a mate that I’m ‘overdue’ going out for a pint, the mean periodicity of which is also not predictive and is itself entirely dependent on Mrs Stichtplate’s permission, a factor which (as far as I can tell) is entirely random in nature.

"It is currently making a beeline for Siberia."

Putin up to no good again!

Haha, fair point. Somewhat stuck in a marking hole at the moment so an insight into my current mentality... But yes, your point is correct - the current magnetic orientation has been the situation for an above-average period. Hope that pint comes your way

Arghh!! Minds Vast and Cool and Unsympathetic ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46811618

There’s been no digging here.  Absolutely no sightings of me shuffling dirt down out of my trousers legs on the old morning constitutional.   

No researching of EMP protection strategies either.  Normally solar induced electromagnetic effects are only a concern over the physical scale of power grid transmission lines.  I don’t know how much smaller that scale gets without a magnetosphere.

I don’t think it’s much beyond current science, engineering and GDP to build a planetary magnetic field generator, although it’d be much easier without those pesky oceans straddling the equator...

Does sunspot activity have any effect on geomagnetic field? 

the impact of solar activity as a whole at the earth's surface is affected by the field.  The sun has been behaving unusually in the last years.

The aliens would certainly play with the field to soften us up before hitting us with soler affects

In September 2018 there was a revision of the 2015 model published and information is available on the BGS website. 

He would of course put it down to his magnetic attraction...

Has anyone any thoughts about the navigational implications? I could be wrong but don't think there will be many for most of us outside the north polar area, except maybe the OS might have to change that little indicator in the map margins a bit more often!

The British Geological Survey Global Geomagnetic Modal, or BGGM for short is available to licence holders, Though I've not tried to get hold of it as 'Joe Public'..............but a complete polarity reversal might require a bit more work on the model.

I havent checked if I need to update, just maybe software support have done it for me...........was that a UV roasted pig going past the window?

Most of NG is very close to 0deg variation between mag and grid. Magnetic variation east of Grid is already a reality in East parts of Harris or North Uist.

Yep, it won't make any difference for us punters wandering around misty fells. 

It is significant for GPS systems and satellite navigations, so if you fly, buy stuff that's come in by ship, watch TV etc it's important but in no way that you will personally notice. (Unless you work in satellite control or related industries) 

Maybe not during the next couple of years. However, Brits have all learned how to do magnetic variation with mag west of grid. And it was 11 deg when I was a kid and 0 deg now. With the Magnetic North Pole heading toward Siberia at about 4 times the speed it moved when my father learned navigation, it may not be long before a significant mag 3 or 4 deg EAST of grid is upon us.

Well, that's true; to be specific I meant that the updated magnetic field model won't affect normal mountain navigation.

It would be interesting to know how accurate the temporal magnetic correction they used to print on OS maps (I assume they still do?) was over the last few decades 

I was recently showing people older OS maps with a military overprint of lines of equal mag variation. An interesting approach and of course it was much more important when it was over ten degrees.

The article and map seem to be at odds with each other. The text says that the magnetic north is moving towards Siberia and has recently crossed the international date line but the map shows it going the other way?

Did you have one too many tipples before writing this? The map shows the mag north moving from Canada toward Siberia passing close by to true north, which is also what the text says.

Mag north is travelling East on the map (not West), over the top of Greenland - but I suppose it will still reach Siberia eventually, with the world being spherical.

Edit: Actually, as mag north is "above" true north I suppose you could argue it's travelling West!

How does the earths magnetic field impact satellite driven GPS navigation system? 

My understanding is that GPS systems are independent, but they need to be assigned a magnetic variation for many purposes (e.g flight navigation).

Perhaps. From my understand they only need magnetic referencing to show orientation when stationary. Once moving they'd still keep showing direction of travel. I just vision that the earth has not changed, nor the satelittes, so their primary location function won't be impacted. 

As i said yesterday, it's a pretty clear pattern and would no doubt make a nice curve on a graph. It can't be that hard to programme an estimate of the next 10-20 years, as it's likely to quicken again until past the pole. Then any recalculation is just adjusting the error of the error so to speak. 

I could be wrong but I think that would be down to space 'weather' rather than anything to do with navigation directly.  What the Sun is doing determines what gets thrown at us, but the Earth's magnetosphere has a profound effect on what happens when it hits.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-and-gps-systems

Yeah. But that's cmes etc.. Not magnetic variation at the poles.

If we have a magnetic reversal and the predicted or estimated 90% loss of protection from space and solar radiation etc., we'd have bigger problems to worry about than aircraft navigation systems. 

Some info on this here - 

https://flightlevelsonline.com/2013/summer-2013/garmin-tips-and-tricks-gps-...

I didn't mention east / west, so not really relevant to my post.

It's heading towards Siberia. Siberia is a big place but depending which part you are talking about its taking approximately the fastest way there.

Maybe this will help

https://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/polar/northpole.htm

The only thing we'll notice is having to add or subtract a few degrees on our compasses to compensate.

Keep Calm and Carry On.