Sweden is the model...

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 Dax H 02 May 2020
In reply to Removed User:

To quote the article, they are giving the people the information and encouraging them to act responsibly. We tried that and the people stuck 2 fingers up to it. 

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In reply to Removed User:

I like swedish models...........

Well would do....

If I could find myself one .

Post edited at 05:25
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 HakanT 02 May 2020
In reply to Chive Talkin\':

Looking at the latest figures, Sweden has 2,653 deaths. Denmark has 410, Norway has 210. That particular Swedish model doesn’t look that attractive.

 Monk 02 May 2020
In reply to Removed User:

I work with people in Sweden. They are just as locked down as we are, but they are doing it voluntarily. Those pictures of cafes and bars open are a small minority of people. Indoor exercise facilities are shut, offices are closed. They just have more social responsibility than us it seems.  And they still have the highest death rate in the region. 

Post edited at 08:40
 Mike Peacock 02 May 2020
In reply to Monk:

I'm not sure about gyms (I don't use them) but the cafes here, at least the outside seating, are still popular and busy when the sun shines. My office is open though we're encouraged to work from home.

 veteye 02 May 2020
In reply to Monk:

Maybe Scandinavians in general have fewer co-morbidities than the UK population?

What is the death rate per 100,000 in Stockholm or Oslo, etc in comparison to London or the South-East?

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to Monk:

>   And they still have the highest death rate in the region. 

For the moment. It will depend on if every other country counts care homes. Belgium has, that's why on paper they look the worst in the world. 

Plus, when countries can't afford to stay so locked down anymore, what do they think their death rate is going to do. The save lives mantra is a myth, it's delaying death and avoiding a peak burden on health services. Denmark's infection rate is already climbing again. 

I think by Xmas many countries and cities death rate will have caught up or surpassed sweden or Stockholms. Sweden's strategy isn't politician led, Tegnell may be the spokesman, but leader of it is Johan Giesecke, who has 30 plus years experience of dealing with infectious diseases globally. Science led, no sentiment, no clapping, no politician making grand speeches promising the world (although health care staff did get a pay rise last month in recognition). 

Big differences in sweden. Schools are open and you can have an event for under 50 people. So folk are out and about still. But it is quieter and certainly is not life as normal. People don't get so excited about 2m, but then some time ago science advisors here said it was insufficient anyway and if you want to distance properly it needs to be 4 or 5m otherwise it's a bit worthless, if you queue 2m apart and all shuffle through the same airspace any way. 

Post edited at 09:24
 gazhbo 02 May 2020
In reply to Monk:

> I work with people in Sweden. They are just as locked down as we are, but they are doing it voluntarily. Those pictures of cafes and bars open are a small minority of people. Indoor exercise facilities are shut, offices are closed. They just have more social responsibility than us it seems.  And they still have the highest death rate in the region. 

Is the whole social responsibility thing true? I hear this a lot but without any real evidence to back it up.  Sweden has 10 million people.  Their per capita death toll isn’t that far behind ours on that basis and, if their first case was later, that doesn’t sound like a huge success story to me.

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to gazhbo:

First cases were as early as anybody else's, they admitted they made some early errors in their track and trace, which enabled a bit of a Stockholm bubble to grow. Care homes are vulnerable as much as anywhere else.

Edit. Define success?  The same number of folk will likely die anyway over time. The difference is how it impacts the country over that 1 to 2 year time span. 

Post edited at 09:51
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 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to gazhbo:

> Is the whole social responsibility thing true? 

Many Swedes are quite amazed at the idea that folk will call the police to shop their neighbours over social distancing..  So yes society is certainly different! Here our kids are having sleep overs and play dates as it's a long weekend off school.

 gazhbo 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

I’d define success as total death toll assuming that health care services can cope.

> Many Swedes are quite amazed at the idea that folk will call the police to shop their neighbours over social distancing..  So yes society is certainly different! Here our kids are having sleep overs and play dates as it's a long weekend off school.

To be fair most Brits would be amazed by that as well.  I’m not criticising the Swedish model and if it turns out that everyone would have had the same number of deaths anyway without as much disruption to everybody’s life then it may well be justified. I wish our kids were having sleepovers, but if that’s what the Swedes are doing, it doesn’t mean that they’re better at social distancing without needing to be told, it just means they don’t consider it necessary.   And that might be right, I just find it interesting that people are lauding the Swedish for doing the exact same thing that they would absolutely pillorise our government for doing, on the basis of some perceived difference in social responsibility.

It doesn’t actually seem like it’s keeping the death toll down, but if it turns out that they get through to the other side quicker then probably everyone else will wish they did the same.

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to gazhbo:

> I’d define success as total death toll assuming that health care services can cope.

Without a vaccine etc. the death toll between different flavours of lock down isn't likely to vary over the long term. Too much obsessing over daily figures in the media doesn't help. 

> , but if that’s what the Swedes are doing, it doesn’t mean that they’re better at social distancing without needing to be told, it just means they don’t consider it necessary.

It just means they mix with same kids on a weekend as they do at school on a week day. What isn't encouraged is travelling around the country, as then you are mixing with folk you wouldn't normal mix with etc. 

Or like London, the stasi roam the parks splitting groups up on a Sunday, then on Monday the same people are allowed on to tube trains. 

> It doesn’t actually seem like it’s keeping the death toll down, but if it turns out that they get through to the other side quicker then probably everyone else will wish they did the same.

The lead scientists here aren't claiming it is saving lives, but London isn't telling the truth either. Lock down just delays death. The one thing they are clear on here is the vulnerable are ones who need protecting and should lock down. 

 HansStuttgart 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

> The one thing they are clear on here is the vulnerable are ones who need protecting and should lock down. 

Part of this protecting the vulnerable is pretty dubious. It's OK for the 70 years olds, but for people in care homes? Because protection tends to mean no contact with the other residents, no contact with family, not being outside, etc. The big disgrace is that noboby asked them whether they want to be protected in this way.

Here's a good article about the topic (in German): https://www.rnd.de/gesundheit/corona-ist-mir-egal-warum-helga-witt-kronshag... 

PS. This post is not meant as criticism for the Swedish government, I think Sweden is doing a good job with the Corona management.

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to HansStuttgart:

I don't think there is a right strategy, in a review in a few years time we might be able to draw conclusions over which was less bad or damaging. 

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 Nicola 02 May 2020
In reply to Dax H:

> To quote the article, they are giving the people the information and encouraging them to act responsibly. We tried that and the people stuck 2 fingers up to it. 

Who says we stuck 2 fingers up to it....the media!? Hmm, propaganda feeding ‘facts’. 

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 Nicola 02 May 2020
In reply to HakanT:

> Looking at the latest figures, Sweden has 2,653 deaths. Denmark has 410, Norway has 210. That particular Swedish model doesn’t look that attractive.

These are number to date. It’s the total deaths across the pandemic that important. If Sweden can get to herd immunity with fewer total deaths, that will be the indication of whether there approach was good or not. 

Also the impact of lockdown on economics and death is not factored in to those numbers. Sweden may have higher covid deaths to date, but this needs to be factored  in with deaths and life expectancy from future poverty, austerity, etc. 

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 TobyA 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

> Or like London, the stasi roam the parks splitting groups up

Just like your comment yesterday about the supposed "masses" of children still in school in the UK, you don't seem willing to knowingly under-egg your pudding currently.

 Dr.S at work 02 May 2020
In reply to TobyA:

Surely we should aim for optimum pudding egging Toby? Too few will be rather flat and too many outrageous and unsustainable... of course us one had to choose the lesser of two weevils...

 skog 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

> Without a vaccine etc. the death toll between different flavours of lock down isn't likely to vary over the long term.

> The lead scientists here aren't claiming it is saving lives, but London isn't telling the truth either. Lock down just delays death.

I'm not sure this is right at all. Vaccine's a long way off, but we're already seeing drug trials that appear to reduce the death rate. If we can keep spread slow for a few more months, this might make a significant difference. But yes, that has to be balanced against excess deaths caused by lockdown itself.

Also, what veteye said above seems relevant - it's possible that, for example, given the lower rate of obesity in Sweden, they could do a worse job of managing this than the UK but still end up with a better result.

> I don't think there is a right strategy, in a review in a few years time we might be able to draw conclusions over which was less bad or damaging. 

Yep, I agree. But there are probably still some wrong strategies - those that lead to health services being overwhelmed, locally or nationally, in particular.

Edit - I'm not saying Sweden is doing it wrong, because I don't know whether they are!

Post edited at 13:00
 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to TobyA:

>  you don't seem willing to knowingly under-egg your pudding currently.

Me and my half baked ideas. 

Wasn't a celebrity chef given a police warming for cycling too far? 

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 profitofdoom 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

> Me and my half baked ideas. > Wasn't a celebrity chef given a police warming for cycling too far? 

I can see some continuity here - "under-egg your pudding" .... "half baked ideas" .... "police warming"

Post edited at 13:11
Roadrunner6 02 May 2020
In reply to Nicola:

> These are number to date. It’s the total deaths across the pandemic that important. If Sweden can get to herd immunity with fewer total deaths, that will be the indication of whether there approach was good or not. 

> Also the impact of lockdown on economics and death is not factored in to those numbers. Sweden may have higher covid deaths to date, but this needs to be factored  in with deaths and life expectancy from future poverty, austerity, etc. 

How?

the death rate is fairly constant of services can cope. 
 

how can they get to herd immunity with fewer deaths just by getting there quickly?

 HakanT 02 May 2020
In reply to Nicola:

Maybe. Or that can just be a way of postponing criticism until a point where there are so many variables that a conclusion is impossible. Swedish authorities are certainly using that argument when challenged on the high mortality rate.
 

Poverty and austerity is an interesting angle. The worst hit areas in the UK are the most deprived, so poverty is definitely a factor in the calculation. But wouldn’t that make Sweden look even worse in comparison with the UK?

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to HakanT:

> Poverty and austerity is an interesting angle. 

They are in any death statistic anyway, covid19 is just mirroring that result. Obesity, poor diets, exercising, smaller housing, smoking, diabetes etc.. all the factors higher in lower incomes which increase your risks with covid19. 

Post edited at 13:30
 Mike Stretford 02 May 2020
In reply to Removed User: I agree there should be a lot to learn from Sweden for the next stage we go into, dos and don't.

Shouldn't be conflated with this argument that we could have avoided lockdown and followed Sweden all along though.... we obviously had too many cases in the community for that to be an option.

 Offwidth 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

Seems to me Sweden are doing the same social distancing as everyone else in Europe without closing everything, and making much less of a fuss about it.  They started earlier than most in Europe as well.

We went for walks near popular areas early in the pandemic,  including on that infamous Sunday and a good number of people were ignoring social distancing (no risk to us, as we were). Others said the same where they lived.  Things were not as bad as media hype but they were problematic. No surprise given the confused and weak UK government  message at the time. 

What you say about Denmark isn't true:  cases are fairly static with a small decline  (as for all the countries past the worse), deaths still declining. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

You are being unfair saying everyone will get it (excusably so, as many have said this): if we end up at herd immunity the deaths in Europe will be an order of magnitude higher, at least,  than they are now. I think the best evidence is pointing towards a long tail and new waves but under control (changing social distancing measures so R is kept mainly under 1)  and waiting for a vaccine or other medical help to arrive in a year or so to avoid that huge number of deaths under herd immunity. It would be criminal to let hundreds of thousands die when a vaccine next year would have saved them.

 profitofdoom 02 May 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> What you say about Denmark isn't true:  cases are fairly static with a small decline  (as for all the countries past the worse), deaths still declining. 

But if you look at cases per million population (1,624), and deaths per million population (82), Denmark doesn't look that great

 Offwidth 02 May 2020
In reply to profitofdoom:

The virus doesn't care how big your country is, so smaller countures needed to be way more 'on the ball' with lockdown measures to end up with the same per captia mortality as bigger ones.  

 wercat 02 May 2020
In reply to Dr.S at work:

someone's debauched my sloth!   I missed both weevils while I was attending to the unfortunate creature.

 profitofdoom 02 May 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> The virus doesn't care how big your country is, so smaller countures needed to be way more 'on the ball' with lockdown measures to end up with the same per captia mortality as bigger ones.  

Thank you, but I'm sorry I don't see what you mean... and I'm not sure why size of country is relevant - Denmark has about half the population density of the UK

I'm not trying to be difficult, I just don't get it, thanks

 summo 02 May 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Only going off what was reported here, saying R had gone from 0.6 to 0.9 in the past week in Denmark. Of course these figures are estimates as they'll never be precise. 

I don't think any country is entirely banking on herd immunity or a vaccine. It's just different flavours of lock down. Sweden is consciously trying to not grind the economy to a halt purely for the sake of it, but it's not needlessly sacrificing lives in the process either. A balancing act. 

 Dax H 02 May 2020
In reply to Nicola:

> Who says we stuck 2 fingers up to it....the media!? Hmm, propaganda feeding ‘facts’. 

Ahh so after we were asked to stay home and distance we didn't actually have record numbers going to Wales and the lake district, nor did Whitby have a massive influx of visitor's, its just the media lying to us. 

I guess what I thought were ques of people outside a couple of McDonald's that I passed when they announced they were closing must have been figments of my imagination. 

Roadrunner6 02 May 2020
In reply to summo:

> They are in any death statistic anyway, covid19 is just mirroring that result. Obesity, poor diets, exercising, smaller housing, smoking, diabetes etc.. all the factors higher in lower incomes which increase your risks with covid19. 

This is what’s happening in the US. I’m hoping one good that comes out of this is the impact of wealth on health outcomes.

Roadrunner6 02 May 2020
In reply to Dax H:

In all fairness the tourists visiting outside probably had a much smaller impact than those attending 4 days of huge races or the football games which still went ahead.

 jkarran 02 May 2020
In reply to Nicola:

Natural herd immunity if possible could be half a decade away, almost certainly years at the rate people are dying today (which most would consider unpalatable). It's a failure, not an objective.

Jk

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 Offwidth 03 May 2020
In reply to profitofdoom:

I think its a fairly difficult point but very important and most likely but not yet totally certain. The virus in Europe and other developed nations initially seems to have infected others at a pretty similar rate until it was slowed down by something: it can't be affected by the size of the population, with no government action, until the tens of percents have been infected (and herd immunity kicks in: something some right wing conspiracists would like you to believe is happening now, so they can open up the economy earlier than it is maybe wise).  Most countries in Europe were caught off guard and allowed it to progress further than they now would have liked. So Netherlands and the UK faced an initial unlimited similar growth for about the same time (first deaths a day apart) but then Netherlands 'put the breaks on' slightly earlier. At that point if the UK had followed them, that would probably have translated into a very similar total number of deaths (iie fewer than we have) but we didn't. Assuming we had acted exactly the same, the number of infections and deaths may have been fairly similar, because herd immunity is a good distance yet from where we both seem to be. Hence in such a comparison mortality totals are the key, and looking at per capita mortality is currently unfair. There are loads of other factors that could differ between countries of course but not by much or those intial growth periods would be a lot different.

Making some assumptions with an average initial unconstrained R at 2.5, an initial mortality rate of 0.5% and time for symptoms of 5 days on average (the main infection period), time to death of 4 weeks on average: the resulting exponential growth output is really scary. Since we saw 10 deaths on March 13th then 4 weeks earlier (Feb 13th) about 2000 people must have been infected (10 is 0.5% of 2000). Note that official UK recorded cases exceeded 2000 only on March 17th!!!

This would all be consistent with  R around 2.5 given the first recorded infections at the end of January.  By April 10th we had 10,000 plus deaths (an underestimate) so 4 weeks earlier on March 13th we must have had around 2, 000,000 infections for a 0.5% death rate after an average of 4 weeks. In mid March this infection level, if correct, was still about 3% of our population but if Netherlands had followed the same path, it would have been about 4x that at about 12% (assuming similar infection profiles in each) both below proper herd immunity, but Netherlands getting close. New infections would have leveled off in the UK after March 23rd  due to lockdown, extrapolating back from deaths now..

However Netherlands per capita rates (a quarter of our population) would have been 4x ours throughout the early stages, for similar infection paths, given numbers infected then were well below herd immunity.

Some good iillustrations on exponential growth and R are here where you can play with various factors:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/apr/22/see-h...

We were warned about this.. a good example from before lockdown.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d...

Post edited at 02:37
 profitofdoom 03 May 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> I think its a fairly difficult point but very important and most likely but not yet totally certain....

Offwidth, thanks very much for your long and detailed reply, and also for the links which you attached. That is very helpful to me

To be honest I'm very ignorant about all these things. And I get stressed out and I've calmed down a bit (and learned a lot) on UKC since March 2020

 HakanT 03 May 2020
In reply to Removed User:

interesting article about how Sweden is being used for propaganda:

https://democratic-integrity.eu/martin-kragh-sweden-has-rejected-the-fight-...

 summo 03 May 2020
In reply to HakanT:

There is talk of stricter regional travel bans in the summer. At present it's only advisory, but with schools closing for summer in around 6 weeks time, they don't want those in hot spots scattering far and wide. Especially after mid summer when many will just take a month off. 

 JohnBson 05 May 2020
In reply to veteye:

Probably seeing as though most of the key comorbidities centre around obesity and we're the worst in Europe.


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