Record University dropouts predicted

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 Offwidth 19 Sep 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/sep/19/uk-universities-predict-r...

Sometimes I wonder about the how University leaders fail to grasp really basic issues.

The biggest problem with the covid pandemic is it disrupts academic input into student learning, which best happens face to face in smaller groups when students get stuck on issues they find difficult. If this sort of academic support to learning wasn't important there would be no need for teaching, as students could learn from organised resources on their own. Yes dropouts will be high but mainly because of this disruption (it's harder and slower to resolve student issues one-by-one online).

1
 Timmd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Yes, I'm counting my good fortune that I've done 2 lots of distance learning with a fair bit of googling to research things involved, before starting uni this September, though I'm sure there'll still be challenges. I'm thinking I won't be looking just to my tutors to unpick things - though it'll likely be them who I'll need to check with that I'm on the right lines.

Students who only use what they're given by the university and their tutors towards learning might find the change from class learning to remote learning quite difficult, finding whatever it is innately interesting is possibly more important, but it's not ideal when university is about going to classes generally.

Post edited at 15:04
OP Offwidth 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Timmd:

If you are stuck on something important after trying hard to resolve it its simply best to ask sooner rather than later.

1
 Timmd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Offwidth: Yes indeed. 

Post edited at 14:48
 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

My daughter went on Thursday and is already desperate to come home, which has come as a surprise to us all. It’s such a weird set-up though - you drop them off and nothing happens, there’s no activity, no contact with staff etc. There would be more pastoral support if she joined the army. I’m being positive and saying the right things but deep down I’m not sure I’m right that she should stick with it. I want her to come home and not sit in a little room staring at a computer screen being miserable and getting £50k in debt for the privilege.

 Timmd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu: In some ways I'm lucky, that I'm in my home city and have a setup of things I can do to keep my mental health in shape (and people I know), it must be odd to be away from home for the first time and in an isolated environment like you describe. Has she done much towards exploring around where she lives, perhaps towards things to have in mind for a future point when things are less restrictive? I suppose to what degree people do that can be down to how positive they're feeling.

Post edited at 15:27
 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Timmd:

Yes, she’s been getting out and trying to do the right things. It’s really early days but I think she’s shocked by how homesick she is. Doesn’t help that she’s got a new boyfriend at home, they’ve been together for a couple of months and I reckon they’d be married within 3 years if she was staying at home. She’s gone from being the happiest I’ve ever known her to the most miserable overnight. I think she’s getting so miserable that she doesn’t want to meet her new flat mates and give a bad impression. 

 Doug 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

My memories of university are that many first year students get very lonely & deppressed in the first few days but most are OK pretty quickly. Also that existing relationships tend not to last, although there are exceptions. Her problems may not be entirely covid related.

But good luck.

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Doug:

Thank you. 

 Welsh Kate 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

I went to university in 1984 and was so homesick that I very nearly dropped out within a few weeks. Fortunately I got over it but it was tough.

There should be student ambassadors (or something like that) or accommodation staff with a remit to ensure the welfare of the Freshers and hopefully she'll get a student mentor next week and have a meeting with her personal tutor.

I think I cried my first few nights. It's not unusual to be very homesick.

 veteye 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Doug:

Agreed. Yes the first week is the worst even in normal years.

Yanis, tell your daughter to find ways of socially interacting, even just with her flatmates, but also with some random classmates, possibly by Smartphone/Online means to begin with.

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Welsh Kate:

There doesn’t appear to be anything like that - it’s almost like she’s living in a Travel Lodge waiting for her course to start. I think she knows on an academic level that she will settle in but just isn’t used to dealing with homesickness. It’s a surprise to all of us because she’s pretty independent. 

 wintertree 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> Sometimes I wonder about the how University leaders fail to grasp really basic issues.

But you’ve met with them, right?  Not much left to wonder about...

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to veteye:

There’re a couple of lads there she knows from school she’s been hanging out with, and now there’re a couple of lads in her flat she says are nice. There’s another girl who’s been locked in her room. I think my daughter should go and see her but I know she won’t. I’m really surprised there’s nothing done to settle them in or occupy them. 

 wintertree 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

It’s really good that she’s talking to you - the students I’ve worried about most are the ones that turn totally inwards.  Sometimes the first the parents hear about it going wrong is when they have to come back for late summer resit exams.  As others have said the first few weeks are really tough for some people - especially for those who don’t take to the “forced fun” event driven culture some places have but do find themselves lonely/isolated. 

My usual advice to such students was to join some of the more relaxed societies that get you away from the university environment, such as our local hill walking society.  I stopped recommending it for a bit it after a particular low in their history of being mountain rescued though...

I don’t know what hill walking societies are planning with bus journeys being distanced and so likely too expensive - often there’s no shortage of interesting walks literally on a doorstep but it’s not quite the same.

I worry about students sitting in the same four walls for a lot of social time, learning time and sleep this year.  Not good for them.  

Keep taking, keep an eye on the situation and if it’s not improved in 2 weeks then it’s time to talk about what needs to change and how to change it.

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Thanks for the advice - I appreciate it. 

 neilh 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

If it’s any consolation it’s like that for most 1st years in my daughters view even without Covid.  It forces them to make social contacts. 

 coinneach 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Dropping my youngest off tomorrow, only one parent allowed and a 45 minute window to unload the car.

He can't wait to get away and started on his new life but will be in a shared flat with four others. 

They've had a what's app group since the spring so kind of know one another.

I'm sure your daughter will be ok after a while.

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to coinneach:

It was the same for my daughter, except a 2 hour window. Nobody bothered about the only one person rule though. She’s been in a What’sApp group with her flat mates but she got there first. We’re all surprised by her homesickness as she’s very independent generally. 
Hope all goes well with your lad (and you; it’s an emotional day). 

 coinneach 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

In six month’s time there’ll be a UKC thread about “ my son / daughter’s at yooni and they’re out of control!”

 Timmd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

The security of a base can count for a lot, re homesickness and her independence while at home. I always liked the security of being the youngest and things being unchanging, and fairly often neglected to touch base with my parents to do with what I was up to, it's meant the transition into independent adulthood outside of that sphere has been with the challenges which can accompany growth. I guess possibly independence when living at home and the self reliance needed when more out by oneself can appear similar but have certain differences.

Edit: Being independent while at home is still a plus in the scheme of things, once she's got to grips with the new normal it'll hopefully come back again - once a little bit more self reliance has developed.

nb This isn't to come across as judgemental or callous in any sense, it isn't always the easiest thing to develop new facets or coping skills, one might say her 'framework' has shifted to something new. Talking on the phone will probably be a helpful thing.

Post edited at 21:30
 Timmd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu: Definitely a helpful thing - the talking on the phone.

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Timmd:

Yes, and I was saying to my wife earlier that her independence from us has always been with close friends. She’s now separated from them and us. She’s had a very secure home life - one primary school in a nice village, grammar school, we’ve lived in the same house her whole life - I guess that firm foundation will ultimately serve her well but is proving difficult to break away from. 

 Yanis Nayu 19 Sep 2020
In reply to coinneach:

Probably! 😂

 tjdodd 19 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

I am sure she will be fine.  Within a couple of weeks she will have made friends, potentially for life, and will have settled in to her new life.  It will be stranger than normal this year but I am sure most kids will be really resilient and will adapt.  Be there for when she needs you and give her space when she needs it.

I am sure I was nervous about my first day at uni but clearly my mum was even more nervous.  Not long into the drive to take me to uni she managed to crash the car into the back of someone as she wasn't paying attention.  Pretty sure my dad took over the driving from there on (it was only a minor bump).

 Timmd 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Perhaps talking to her about it being something of a phase might be helpful? I've dropped out of touch with childhood friends and we've re-joined paths again later on. Talking with her along those lines, about how true friends made earlier on can often tend to stick, might help her towards keeping perspective that while it's a big change certain 'key stones' will often always present during her life, even as it takes different forms?

I'm not a parent though, which is possibly obvious.

Post edited at 00:40
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 barneyc 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Dear yanis.

Sorry to hear that your daughter is having these problems.

I've actually a niece in a similar situation, and I've been talking it out with her, so these were the conclusions we came to.

We agreed that we were in strange times, the University welcome was rubbish, and somewhere along the line they have turned into businesses that need their customers. We also agreed that she will be spending a lot of time in her room, alone. We agreed that the debt was enormous, and that the University experience was going to be poor for at least the first year. We agreed that while dropping out isn't desirable, we are in unprecedented times requiring a creative solution.

These were the options we explored...

Doing an open university degree from home.

Coming home and registering at local uni via clearing.

Coming home and working for a year then reapplying. Ideally in a field that she's interested in, but if nothing else earning some money, and gaining work experience.

Both of the first two options could lead into a transfer into a more desirable traditional university experience when times return to normal. All would lessen her debt. Both the first two options would, in a normal year, appear inferior to a traditional university experience, but we aren't in a normal year.

She had dinner summer research and discovered that she can get some (all?) of her fees back if she is fast.

Good luck with your (her) decision. She may have to act quickly! How this is of some help

 Timmd 20 Sep 2020
In reply to barneyc:

> Coming home and working for a year then reapplying. Ideally in a field that she's interested in, but if nothing else earning some money, and gaining work experience.

It sounds like you've thought things through quite carefully. I think part of why I applied for uni this year is from a bit of an impending sense of doom at what is to come in the economy to do with the effects of covid and Brexit combined, then with funny timing after having applied and been accepted, l learned that a pub in Sheffield with 2 vacancies had had 1000 applicants. It might be a very regional thing, what I've absorbed by osmosis seems to talk of a gathering recession and people who are out of work because of covid competing with other people who are too in looking for jobs, with this being a challenging time for young people given their work experience.

Just some random related thoughts...

Post edited at 19:49
 Yanis Nayu 20 Sep 2020
In reply to barneyc:

Thanks for the detailed reply. We’ve looked at similar options. The trouble is that she’s doing law, and it seems like where you do it makes a big difference to your employability. The unis local to us (Warwick and Birmingham) don’t have anywhere near the reputation and ranking for law as Leeds, where she is now. On the positive side, we haven’t had any negative texts from her today, so she seems to be settling in. 
 

As for dropping out, I think the fees are waived if it’s within 14 days of the course starting and 25% if within the first term. Accommodation would need to be paid for the whole year, unless they got someone else in there. 
 

Unfortunately, none of the options are particularly great. I’m not sure deferring a year would solve the problem because I suspect the unis will keep the distance learning stuff. Like you say, they are simply businesses in the business of getting money from young people and their parents (which is not to denigrate those working in them). 

 Yanis Nayu 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Timmd:

Yes, I do think 3 years at uni will insulate from the worst effects of Covid/Brexit. 

 coinneach 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Leeds ?
 

That’s where I dropped the boy off today . . . . . I was ushered out of the flat with “ Thanks, see you in a few months ! “


 

 Andrew Lodge 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Sorry to hear this after our recent conversations, hope it works out for her.

 Yanis Nayu 20 Sep 2020
In reply to coinneach:

Which accommodation? Yes, she was ok-ish when we dropped her off but it was the next day it hit home. She would have been better going at the weekend. Seems to be settling in now. 

 Yanis Nayu 20 Sep 2020
In reply to Andrew Lodge:

Thank you. Some positive signs today!

 coinneach 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

He’s at Beckett, much different situation to your daughter though. He’s doing a sports course and had to defer for a year when he ruptured his ACL so he should have started this time last year.

 He’s been counting the days since last September. . . 

 ClimberEd 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

I appreciate this only be may of a little help, but as she is doing law she has 'a big picture plan' (I presume) and that can help significantly in reframing the problem if she does want to try and stick with it. 

So, for her, this is about getting through a really shitty year as part of a multi year plan to become a successful lawyer. 

Worth remembering

The flip side would be if she was just going to uni to 'do a degree' with no real target in mind, in which case I think overcoming the problems this years 1st years face would be much harder, and sticking with it less of an option.

 Yanis Nayu 21 Sep 2020
In reply to ClimberEd:

Yes, you’re exactly right. 

 Yanis Nayu 21 Sep 2020
In reply to coinneach:

That sounds cool - I’m envious!

 NorthernGrit 21 Sep 2020
In reply to barneyc:

I just feel the need to stick up for Universities a little here with a few thoughts.

Whilst I'm sure at some level the idea of University as a 'business' exists almost all staff I know do genuinely care about students and their education. Yes Universities are a business but there aren't shareholders etc so it's not like an enterprise where greed kicks in to extract maximum amounts from every student so you make your sales bonus this month (although yes the continuing ability for a Uni to operate and necessarily grow is linked to 'bums on seats' but this is in at least part a failure of the whole system not individual institutions)

Universities have had to put a lot of measures in place to deal with covid and social distancing is stretching what can be done. Universities have not received any additional funding to increase the staffing or Estate needs to cope with social distancing and so are having to do more with the same or less money than they have previous years. Despite prevailing opinion many Universities aren't actually awash with cash to do this.

It will be amplified this year of course, but the story of students feeling isolated or not enough is done to welcome them is the same every year. 

Universities tend to regard students attending as fully fledged adults. Parents and the students themselves probably don't always feel this way. This disconnect means Universities don't always lead students by the hand as much as they could and students often don't go looking for what's on offer as much as they could.

There is nothing to say to University experience this year should be poor. Every academic I know is busting their guts to find inventive ways to bridge the gaps and putting in many more hours as a result. If you needed to speak to an academic on a 1 to 1 last year I will bet a substantial amount that it would have been more difficult or taken longer to arrange than getting a Skype call organised this year. Played correctly students can potentially get a much higher level of attention this year.

Sorry I could go on but won't. This is in no way aimed at individuals feeling isolated. I don't know enough about those circumstances.

 Doug 21 Sep 2020
In reply to NorthernGrit:

> Universities tend to regard students attending as fully fledged adults. Parents and the students themselves probably don't always feel this way.

I always had the impression that students who had taken some time out, either a 'gap year' or longer, found the transistion easier than those straight from school, especially in Scotland where the students could be very young (<18). Even more so if they had lived away from home for a while.

 Yanis Nayu 21 Sep 2020
In reply to NorthernGrit:

Yes, I know a chap who’s a professor at Warwick university so I appreciate that. 

 neilh 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

My daughter ( who is not outward going) adopted a policy of realising that everyone was hiding in their rooms.So with butterflies in her stomach she realised the best thing to do was knock on other people's doors and start talking to them. That was 2 years ago pre Covid. Nothing has really changed that much. for 1st years.Best thing to do is let her work this out for herself and just let go of your concerns.

Now she just goes upto anybody at Uni and talks to them.

You can always make the point she is doing Law and she has to be able to speak up for herself!

Joking aside , its just part of the process of moving away from being a helicopter parent.

 Yanis Nayu 21 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

Cheers. I think she’s settled-in now. I think the main problem was that she got there early and couldn’t make friends with people who weren’t there!

Appreciate all the advice from everybody. 

 shuffle 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Glad to hear she is feeling a bit more settled.

 It’s worth reminding her that there is lots of support available, but (this year more than ever) it can be quite hard for university staff to identify when students are finding things tough. Do encourage her to let her personal tutor/academic advisor or module tutors know if she is struggling with the work or is feeling isolated. I’m a lecturer and, as others have said upthread, we do want to support students as much as we can  

 coinneach 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

That’s good news!

 Rob Exile Ward 21 Sep 2020
In reply to NorthernGrit:

'Yes Universities are a business but there aren't shareholders etc so it's not like an enterprise where greed kicks in to extract maximum amounts...'

It's a bit tricky to reconcile that with VCs paying themselves £250K plus benefits, or the rush to build - and tgherefore 

I appreciate your defence, and I'm sure that many of your colleagues are equally conscientious. I think the whole issue of pastoral care and data protection really hasn't been thought through in every institution. Here's an anecdote that still rankles: a perfectly competent student won a hard fought place at one of the most prestigious institutions in the country. Over the course of the next 12 - 18 months he effectively had a nervous breakdown that was just about as serious as could be, manifested - not least - in failing to attend compulsory lectures and getting exam times wrong. Despite promises of pastoral care, the entire response from the university was just to keep taking his fees; not a single tutor, lecturer or anyone else ever thought it was their job to see why an otherwise grade 'A' student was failing.  If he had been employed, his employee could have been liable for failing in their duty of care. As a student he was totally ignored.

 Timmd 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

> Yes, I do think 3 years at uni will insulate from the worst effects of Covid/Brexit. 

I think I've heard things about the economy gradually spitting into two tiers recently, hopefully having a law degree and things will help her to be in the upper tier rather than the low skilled one with more competition and lower pay in it. 

I didn't mean this bit irreverently BTW ''I'm not a parent though, which is possibly obvious. '' It was more an admission of having not so of a clue.

Post edited at 20:39
RentonCooke 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

It's maybe not an entirely fair comparison as an employer would have been paying him and looking to sack him if he wasn't keeping to his contract. A student in a university is there entirely voluntarily, and the rules are set to allow maximum flexibility; classes aren't compulsory, you can entirely ignore your assessments, and the university will bend over backwards not to kick you out - but not for the reasons you may suspect. 

In my career, the only time the cash value of a student ever enters the consciousness is when enrolment figures for first year students are being discussed. If they drop out at any point after that the only concerns are i) the impact on our progression rates, ii) the potential impact disproportionate dropouts will have on diversity figures, iii) the viability of subsequent year courses, iv) potential for us to get a kicking for not having ensured adequate pastoral support if some claim is later brought against us and v) a genuine compassion for knock on effects on students of having bombed out of a degree.

The more we encourage students to attend university, the greater the number of poorly prepared and simply incapable students we have coming through the door, with ever greater demands we hand-hold and support them, which itself creates resentment amongst other students - why is one student getting the late penalties for an essay they submitted three weeks late written off because their grandmother was sick for the tenth time, while the student who diligently submits on time, or doesn't demand special dispensation, just gets what they were given?

The assumption that students are viewed as cash cows may be accurate as far as the drift-net pulling students in to university goes. But in my experience it is definitely not a driver behind continuation and appearances that we are ignoring their welfare. We are simply stuck between numerous rocks and hard places, student demands, parents concerns, and the contradictions of an adult learning environment being home to kids at widely varying levels of maturity.

 NorthernGrit 21 Sep 2020
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

..and I could give you many anecdotes of course admins or Financial support advisers going well out of their way, above and beyond and all that, to help students in times of need and crisis. In a country with over 2.4 million students these are just that - anecdotes. But from the evidence I see, on balance Universities do a pretty good job of looking after students. 

 Lyndleme 22 Sep 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Whatever it is it should be discussed by the authorities within the institution. 

 neilh 22 Sep 2020
In reply to NorthernGrit:

I would agree with that, and it should also be recognised that students help each other.  my daughter and her 2 friends - on their own back- ( all doing doing maths) befriended and help a group of what she described as lost souls in her 1st year.These were generally off the spectrum students ( incredibly  common in maths) who were struggling to cope with life as a student in respect of course work etc( basically clever but could not cope with real world ).

Contrary to the view of alot of people most students are not out on the p~~s all the time.

 Timmd 22 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh: It sounds like you've done a great job as a parent, that was a lovely thing to do.

Post edited at 11:28
In reply to Offwidth:

Sorry to hear this.

I am not sure the UK system of rushing off to uni more or less straight from school, when arguably many people end up on a course that might not be what they turn out in year 3 to really wanted to have done, is the way ahead.

No doubt I'll be bazookaed for saying this but I do wonder whether the norm should shift to university after a couple of years of life and work.

So unifying it to the topic, if someone were to leave uni now without completing it, live and work for a few years, then go to uni, I can't help thinking that could work extremely well.

 Ridge 22 Sep 2020
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

> No doubt I'll be bazookaed for saying this but I do wonder whether the norm should shift to university after a couple of years of life and work.

I don't think there's anything wrong in that suggestion at all. 

 Doug 22 Sep 2020
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

describes what I did - left after a year of Chemistry (my best school subject but found it tedious at university), worked for a while then went back to study Biology & Environmental Science (which I hadn't done at A level). Second time round I was much more motivated

 wintertree 22 Sep 2020
In reply to Ridge:

> I don't think there's anything wrong in that suggestion at all. 

It would fix the admissions issue.  

Some of the brightest professors end up working admissions as the government are unhappy if a given course over-recruits UK students, and the finance people are (justifiably) unhappy if the course under-recruits total students meaning too little income, and offers to UK students are made on predicted grades and must be honoured once those convert in to real grades.  Set against this is an ongoing recruitment war between comparable institutions and ever changing A-level grades.  This has produced a situation where the amount of (very expensive) professorial time going in to modelling to decide how many offers to make so that the recruitment target is hit is ridiculous.  It would all just go away if offers were made against real grades, and there would be much less uncertainty for the students as well, along with the disappearance of the separate clearing system.  Professors could go back to doing science or art or whatever they joined up to do, not modelling admissions.  Students could start thinking about university after their A-level studies complete, reducing the competing stressful demands on their head space and giving them a chance to understand how a university course may differ from what they did at A-level.

Anything that can wind back the amount of time people spend gaming systems rather than doing science has to be a good thing.  I start to think that the university system is perversely designed to stop people doing science (or art or whatever).

Create opportunities for civic placements, work experience and charitable work in the intervening year.  As a side effect of all this, the workload of all academic staff could be reduced by ~1/3rd in the year this shift took place, and I think they are going to need it after the last 6 months.

 barneyc 23 Sep 2020
In reply to NorthernGrit:

Hi.

I certainly didn't mean to offend. I am 100% percent behind university staff, and I have no doubt that they are working very hard to do their best for for their students. I know some lecturers / academics, and I am aware that they are finding this challenging and are doing their best.

I am connected to a university, and I feel that it is run like a fairly cutthroat business, although this does not reflect on staff commitment to students (except perhaps senior management) in any way. Perhaps this is a reflection of the economic reality of the institutions survival, I have no idea, and dont pretend to know.

Hope that clears things up

Thanks.


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