UKH

Latest in the shit show around our PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/08/boris-johnson-ready-to-giv...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/08/lynton-crosbys-firm-in-ill...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/08/no-10-memo-dominic-cumming...

This is utter chaos...

No10, Merkel, Tusk all adding their views as to what is happening or about to happen.

Anybody care to add their own analysis to the current/future situation.

It’ll probably be as accurate as anyone else’s, even those directly involved in the process.

Makes May look 'strong and stable' - how we laughed at the time!

Just stop it. Any riots are worth it at this point. Our reputation is in the bin, so the sooner we can start the long rebuilding the better.

Amber Rudd was the voice of sweet reason this morning. Yet again the massive stumbling block to resolving this shambles is … JC. 

A GE won't solve anything. We need a government who will hold a referendum on a no deal exit (because that's all that is possible) vs revoke article 50; and THEN hold a GE to implement whatever is decided. Surely to God someone can stroke JCs ego enough too ask him to step aside temporarily, just to get the referendum done?

May's deal on the WA gets reworded (in style but not substance), goes back to parliament before 31/10, enough MPs bottle and vote for it. We leave on the current timetable.

Now, you voted for this shitshow, what's your analysis?

Increasingly desperate bollocks intended for Johnson's core audience to try and win votes. Hopefully they'll be able to see that he never intended to reach a deal, nor does he intend to leave on the 31st.

In the meantime they're doing untold damage to our internal discourse, our relationship with the EU and our reputation. 

I voted to leave the EU.

As in leave the customs union, single market, ECJ, etc.

Since then I’ve compromised and would settle for leave while still remaining in the customs union.

Heck, I’ve even said I’d rather remain than be in some half in half out limbo.

How does that make me responsible for what has indeed become a shit show?

I disagree that the referendum should be on No Deal - that would give it credibility and disenfranchise sensible leave voters. It should be May's WA vs Remain. Possibly at a stretch a three-way STV type vote, but I think the Electoral Commission is generally opposed to them.

I agree about JC. Surely it would help him to look prime ministerial if he were to step aside for a unity candidate? There are plenty of ways to dress it up as the honourable and correct course of action.

I don't think May's WA is sustainable for the complete transition period because there will be a GE during the transition period and no potential government after the GE wants it.   If the leave vote splits we will get a pro-remain government that will turn it into EEA or back into EU, if it goes ERG/Brexit they'll no deal and crash out without finishing the transition period.

Because this hasn't come out of the blue - this is completely in line with what we predicted. You chose to ignore the analysis 3 years ago and drown out the warnings with mob chanting of 'Project Fear'. Unfortunately it's about to morph into Project Reality. 

And yet, the Conservatives are still 11 points clear in the polls, and the combined brexit parties are still getting 48% of the vote. All this anti-European grandstanding is playing very well to his core vote. None of the other parties have popular leaders (except NF in his target group).

You didn’t predict what’s happened.

Nobody did.

A referendum is the only conceivable solution. 

That's not really true. Many people predicted the incompatibilities of 'leaving the EU' with the actual detail of leaving the single market and the customs union, along with the complications of the Irish border. However, it was the case  that anyone who pointed out these difficulties was written off as a remoaner, or as an advocate of Project Fear, and the complications were never really discussed and analysed in a grown-up fashion. 

We bl**dy did. The problems of the Irish border, Erasmus, Galileo, security cooperation, not to mention JIT manufacturing, Airbus, financial regulation, agricultural exports and imports, fall in the pound and government revenues etc etc etc were all thoroughly aired. But you chose to listen to Farage and his lies about £350 million a week and Turkey being admitted without us having the power of veto.

It's your fault; at least face up to the fact. 

Since the referendum was announced there has been a vigorous debate about all things Brexit related on this forum.

Posters with a wide range of opinions have analysed every aspect of the Brexit process including the points that you mention.

However, unless I’ve been missing from large parts of these debates I still think that nobody ever predicted what we’ve seen happen, so far.

I think limbo was always a requirement of any sensible withdrawal from the single market. The only alternative was the Patrick Minford approach of trash manufacturing and farming, but create an even bigger economy through a world beating financial centre and not much else.

Some of the most long standing brexiters (pretty much the only ones who actually deigned to write down a plan) always intended for a very gradual withdrawal from the EU beginning with a long period in the EEA. But then Farage and Johnson promised everything was going to be quick and easy, and any realistic plan went out of the window.

http://www.leavehq.com/

http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

So you predicted that this would go on for so long, that the Prime Minister would resign, that Johnson would become PM, that JC would refuse an election, that Parliament would be unlawfully prorogued?

I look forward to you pointing out your posts predicting these events.

If you want a blame game fine but how about your side accepting that your refusal to support the referendum result has played a part as well.

That's a bit like saying - after jumping from a third floor window, breaking your left tibia in 2 places and spraining your right wrist - that nobody predicted that actual outcome, only predicting severe injuries in general and probably broken bones.

I think many of the problems were predicted, I definitely predicted the timescale. I always felt that Brexit (and also Scottish independence) would take 10-20 years to reach any sort of stability, by which time I would be pretty much retired.

I didn't realise we would be in stasis, I thought, by now, we would have taken some of the first baby steps, but I never imagined that this would be properly resolved this side of 2025, and more likely 2030.

Because BJ, Gove, Farrage and all the rest of the politicians who want to leave with No Deal are repeatedly quoting that 17.4 million people all agree with them. And YOU are 1 of those people. YOU are their "raison d'etre".

It's about time that the truth came out that maybe only 0.4 million people voted with the intention of No Deal, and the rest thought that the EU would cave in and give GB&NI all the unicorns and pink elephants that were promised by the Leave brigade.

That leaving the SM and CU was incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement, and that no Brexiters, ever, were going to accept any blame for any negatives has long been established. The rest has just been riffing on that particular groove, Daddio.

Johnson is doing all he can to take the do-nothing option off the table setting up a No-brexit vs May's WA clash in parliament in order to to offload the blame. It'll likely backfire and result in a no-deal he will blame parliament and the EU for followed by very serious social, economic and security troubles for at least the next decade as the UK disintegrates. A distant second but next most likely is May's deal passes conditional on a referendum.

Let's hope not because it looks very very bleak to me.

jk

No it isn’t.

I’d prefer the analogy of a leave voter soloing a highball boulder problem and a remainer pulling the mat away.

Predicted but many actually haven’t happened yet.

And that is wrong.

Not debatable just wrong.

The Irish issue can be solved by a future relationship agreement something the EU won’t discuss until after we’ve left.

I wonder why?

I was accused of trying to speak for everybody on another thread.

So I look forward to your evidence to back up the numbers that you’ve stated.

Having had extensive exposure to both campaigns you voted for it. Then, again after much engagement with the case against, in no position to argue ignorance you voted for Farage's lot pressurising the Conservatives to ditch May and pursue a much harder line. I'm sorry but it's impossible to be more culpable as a mere voter, you chose this, eyes open.

jk

How the f*ck have any of us pulled a (non-existent) mat away? 

You would, you always want to blame someone else.

Sorry to have turned your thread into just another round and round in circles Brexit thread.

For that I apologise.

And will take my leave.

'The Irish issue can be solved by a future relationship agreement something the EU won’t discuss until after we’ve left.'

Actually, it can't. The GFA was predicated on the fact  that there was no reason for border controls between two countries that were both part of the EU, so it satisfied both sides; Brexit was always going to be incompatible with that.

Shame that only 49 million voters understood.

Oh FFS. Of course not. Just that it would be a chaotic shitshow of msome sort. Obviously nobody could predict the precise details.

No it's the ERG f*ckwits and faragists who have pulled the mat away by making a hard Brexit or no deal the price for not destroying the Conservative party (though hopefully that will still happen anyway). Remainers are simply offering a top rope as a way out of a very bad decision to attempt the highball in the first place.

That doesn't work because the whole country has been placed in jeopardy, not just the Brexiteers. We are stuck on the bus with you, thanks.

No, you are just wrong.

The Irish problem cannot be solved by a future trading relationship. Only a customs union can solve this and Brexiteers won't agree to that.

And we've had this discussion before. Can you imagine how frustrating this is for non-nationalists, not only have you landed us in this shit, you can't even be bothered to read what people write.... you just believe Brexit bullshit, cos they're on your side.

We didn't want any of this. We didn't want to trash the economy or re-start the troubles or slash workers rights, or food shortages, or gridlock at our ports, or the end of car assembly, or the decimation of UK science, or to lose our freedom of movement. None of it is the fault of anyone who voted remain. As for "supprting the result" we've had this discussion countless times. There is nothing to support, every option is worse than the status quo.

I did. In June 2016 I was very vocal on FB saying how a leave vote will result in an ultra right wing government.

E

That may have been your position, but only about 35% of leave voters believed that we were going to leave the single market - the sensible decision would have been the soft brexit option, which would have settled the issue and allowed us to move on.  No one would have been quite happy - apart from the Brexit politicians would have been secretly ecstatic, as it would given them a continued reason for political existence.  It's neither leave or remain voters fault, but it is entirely the fault of the conservative party, who put party unity before a sensible compromise and the good of the country.  In fact the hung Parliament in 2017 - a democratic mandate that superseded the referendum result - was the instruction to go and seek such a compromise.  

That's populism for you: popular until the wheels come off then it's not anymore.

jk

A future relationship involving NI being in the Customs Union, yes.

In case, heaven forbid, the UK government acted in bad faith and tried to use the threat of a disorderly withdrawal to leverage a future relationship. 

I definitely referred to the number of May's wagon wheels falling, as in the old song "three wheels on my wagon" and it was pretty clear I expected them all to come off

if we do get no deal on Nov 1st, what should we start smashing up first?   Con clubs?

or infrastructure?  (speaking as a Sexagenarian former conformist law abiding and honest  member of the middle class till Austerity and then these vile Brexit Leaders left me behind)

When I heard the filth coming from No 10 about blaming the EU for this shite this morning I really turned a corner

ps I am feeling right now that I've spent my first 50+ years completely hoodwinked by the people who run society and that now they are showing how it really works

I'd leave the infrastructure alone TBH, apart from CCTV cameras, if you were planning a riot, you'd want to know the hospitals were ok and the ambulances and fire engines were still operational.

HTH 😜 Andy

Perhaps not on these forums, but during the referendum I was arguing that voting to leave would result in utter chaos in our democracy. I couldn't have predicted the exact order of events, and indeed it's been far nastier and more chaotic than I imagined. But chaos was a predictable outcome.

It's a bit like the Simpsons predicting Donald Trump as president back in 2000. 

Lots of people predict a lot of things, so it's not surprising some of them happen to turn out to come around.

No one could have predicted exactly what happened post ref, but a lot of predictions / warnings / concerns were raised and some of them have happened.

There are no doubt an exponential number of similar predictions that didn't happen, like George Osborne's immediate post ref 10-18% house price decline for example. 

Of course the Irish issue can be ‘solved’ by us saying to Ireland that we’re afraid what we agreed is no longer convenient to us and we want to agree something else. Any breach of any agreement can be ‘solved’ if one party is prepared to behave in that way.

jcm

Don't think anybody thought it would be quite this bad.

I always thought it would be this bad. In a blog on my website in January 2017 I feared worse – 'that we are entering a new Dark Age, perhaps, in which all expert reason goes by the board and is replaced a fascist "rule of the mob".'

We all knew that promising the electorate something that didn't exist - an exit from the EU that didn't disadvantage us massively economically and politically on the world stage, and then getting a group of incompetents to try and deliver it, would be a total shit show.  I guess Baron is right in so far as we didn't know the precise form of this shit show.

No 10 is in good company with its disinformation and chaosintent

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-49973668/do-latvians-really-read...

They must be using the Putin method

I did but I'm an incurable pessimist, I don't think we're halfway there yet in terms of how bad this could get.

jk

Yeah, a 'no deal now' election could be disastrous, looking at the polls. Seems to be what Cummings want.

252 manufacturing jobs have just gone in Merthyr, and there's absolutely zero chance that they are going to be replaced by other manufacturing jobs. Merthyr voted to Leave; it would be hard - but fair - to point out that sorry folks, this is what you voted for.

And this is just the start.

There's apparently (unbelievably!) ~35% support among the electorate for no-deal (vs assorted other options), presumably mostly among those with little idea what it actually means, but that is enough if it can all be marshalled by the Conservatives to deliver a government of sorts. Time to be thankful for Farage's intransigence/ego maybe?

jk

The company had to be bought out by its management team when it was failing in 2011.

It was failing because of a fall in orders from its main customers, the public sector.

Fast forward to 2019 when the company again gets into difficulties because of a fall in orders from its main customers, the public sector.

Brexit - the cause of all unemployment.

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/17376251.record-number-of-people-in-...

Definitely - but make sure that the buildings are full of members first before you set fire to the building.

No - we'll need this afterwards, when we rejoin the EU.

I think I turned that corner some time ago.

That's the thing, if they do come out for no deal, I expect Farage will stand aside and endorse the Tories.

http://britainelects.com/

I expect they'll romp it then, unless there's some organised tactical voting, but I can't see enough non-Brexiters playing along with that.

In terms on pro-no dealers I think it's a mix. People who have little interest in economics (fair enough but better served by representative democracy), and people like my parents next door neighbour.... 'no deal will be tough but it's worth it for our freedom' 😞

But it's alright for him to send the fire engines somewhere else whilst the local Conservative club goes up in flames isn't it ?

Stuff them I say - they only got what they deserve. Wonder who they'll blame for this  - the SNP, LibDems ?

And why do you think the public sector is spending as little money as possible ??

Could it be because those with a bit of money are saving it for the rainy (or should that be torrential) day that's coming ?

Well, as you well know austerity means we have to make tough choices, so the fire service when called upon to do so will, I'm sure, find it appropriate to damp down the Con club, after making sure that Mrs Postlethwaite's prize tabby has been recovered from the tree. Pity about there not being more appliances and firemen available and all that, but at least the banks are safe.

I said in one of my previous posts that I would compromise on a customs union.

Possibly because of the same reasons they were in 2011 when the company first got into difficulty?

No, sorry, must be down to Brexit.

Yes, but you also said that you voted to leave the customs union. You only had one vote but now you're saying you don't want what you voted for. 

'Brexit - the cause of all unemployment.'

No, I agree with you that the failure of the company concerned wasn't Brexit related.

But it's very hard to see in a post-Brexit world where any new manufacturing jobs are going to come from. Why would a manufacturer with international ambitions set up in the UK, when they can have instant access to a 500 million market in Europe? Why would they invest in areas that are no longer going to receive EU Objective 1 funding? Why would they invest in the UK when any components they need from Europe will be subject to tariffs and supply uncertainties?

I've just had an email from a company based in the UK who I used as suppliers of scientific books & lab equipment until I retired recently saying they had just set up a subsidiary company in Germany for non-UK orders and asking that all future orders went there. And it appears that its more than just a postbox as there will be a warehouse there to deal with orders so presumably a N° of UK jobs have just moved to Germany.

But you didn't vote for compromise, you voted for Farage's hard line extremists leading predictably to an extremist shift in government policy. Your choice, made freely in full possession of the facts.

What you say in here does not matter. What you did at the ballot box and what you will do, that does matter.

jk

We had a reasonable conversion about it a few weeks ago, then you come back and post this yesterday

"The Irish issue can be solved by a future relationship agreement something the EU won’t discuss until after we’ve left.

I wonder why?"

Which is proper Brexiteer BS/propaganda, with the aim of demonising our allies in Europe. If you want reasonable conversation on this topic decide which camp you are in, and I'm not talking Brexit/Remain, I'm talking unicorn/reality.

In 2011 many companies were still digging themselves out of the hole that the banking crisis had dropped far too many of us into.

The fact that this company did get out of the hole once, but then found itself back in another at this particular time must include Brexit as one of the reasons, if not a major one.

People are scared to spend, scared to invest, and worried about their futures in general; all because a hell of a lot of British jobs are going to disappear across the channel/north sea. How long before the car firms leave en masse, along with steel working and the rest of the supply chains.

Compromise.

As in I voted to leave the customs union but I can see the advantages of remaining.

As in it gets Brexit done.

Compromise, you should try it some time.

I don’t disagree with the points that you’ve made but companies and people still seem to want to come to the UK.

I voted to leave the EU.

Preferably a hard Brexit as it has now been defined.

As there’s no chance of that getting through Parliament I’ll settle for being in the customs union.

The single market would be nice as well but comes with free movement and ECJ so no thanks.

What have/will you compromise on to bring the country back together?

Who is offering you the option to stay in the customs union? 

I think I would probably compromise by accepting a soft Brexit - Customs, Union, Single Market, Freedom of Moverment. I think this would fairly reflect the narrow refedrendum result. It would also make rejoining in future relatively straightforward if there were a clear majority for it.

While it might be used as propaganda it’s also true.

The backstop is necessary in case the UK and the EU can’t reach an agreement on their future relationship within the transition period.

It’s not meant to be permanent and shows that both the UK and the EU want a workable relationship.

Labour won’t vote for the WA because there’s no guarantee about future workers rights or environmental standards.

If the UK and the EU had at least begun to discuss the future relationship then both the NI and Labour Party issues might not exist.

There’s no demonisation of the EU.

And since when has stating a fact been blaming someone/something?

So the company’s collapse was nothing to do with being heavily dependent on public sector spending?

Why don’t you just say that you want to remain?

Full stop.

Nothing else.

Instead of sniping  away and finding fault with any suggestion that isn’t remain.

It wouldn’t add anything to the debate - which is what this is - but then there’d be no change there then.

No it is not.

The only trade arrangement which would not require the backstop is one which involved NI being in the same customs union as the EU. That is the only solution that does not require a border. It is an international norm... what do you not understand about it?

It would have to be permanent if the UK wanted only an FTA with the EU, or WTO rules. That's the whole point.

What's that got to do with the price of fish?

Jeeeezuz! This is like banging my head against a brick wall, while running round in circles. The Brexiteers who hold the balance of pwoer have made it very clear they do not want a customs union, so the backstop is required.

After stating your fallacies you then go on to float the question 'I wonder why'? 

We'll discuss that when you state a fact.

I do want to remain, sorry if that wasn't clear.

Who is offering you the option to stay in the customs union?

If we were to have this soft a Brexit I think that I’d rather just remain.

Given that we’d probably still be paying to be half in, half out of the EU with no seat at the table?

Oh your desire to remain has been crystal clear for a long time.

It’s your desire not to enter into any sort of debate other than to poo poo any scenario that isn’t remain.

Nobody has offered a customs union because we haven’t begun to discuss the future relationship in any meaningful way.

I’m trying, obviously no very successfully, to give you my preferred options.

See. I knew you'd get there in the end!

I’ve always been a slow learner.

Then you asked a stupid question.

Your compromise of remaining in the customs union isn't on the table, so it isn't much of a debate.

At the moment we leave at the end of the month, does your compromise involve getting the eu and parliament to agree to us staying in the customs union?

Your option isn't on the table, you voted against it.

I'm getting dissy now. Nauseously dissy.

Leaving the customs union was one of May's red lines, and it is certainly a no no for Boris. It was on that basis that the Backstop was formulated and agreed to by UK government.

There was an indicative vote in parliament which was 3 votes short of voting for a customs union. Most Tory MPs voted against it.

You haven't compromised, at every turn you've voted for the most extreme option. This is the consequence of that, extremists in No.10 about to smash our economy into the buffers so their backers can loot the state's assets and deregulate the economy. You won, this is 'brexit'. Get over it.

There is no position we would each consider an acceptable compromise. Yours is an anti-immigration brexit, I consider freedom of movement of people the single biggest loss which will result from brexit. At least one of us loses.

The country can't be brought back together, I think you'll be lucky to avert significant bloodshed as it disintegrates.

Anyway, you can sort your own mess out, I'm young enough to start again.

jk

Did you miss the bit where I said I’d compromise and remain in the customs union.

This is my view and not government policy, if they achave one.

As I said, I’m expressing my own views, gosh only knows what the future relationship will actually be.

Because why would you want to separate the WA from the future relationship when the two are dependent on each other.

We are leaving the EU on 31st October. 

How you can believe that staggers me and just proves the point monkey puzzle was making

Fixed it for you

We’ve discussed this topic often enough  for you to know that I’m not anti immigration.

Your constant assertion  - ‘you won, get over it’ - is supposed to mean what exactly?

The belief that Brexit is all about the destruction and looting of the British economy assumes, I presume, that the Conservatives will always be in power in order to allow this to happen?

If you are stating that as a known fact, I'll be generous and assume it is also a joke.

It was. I think.

Thanks.

Seems to me like the like the leave voter has kicked the mat away and the remainers are all shouting "for F**sake use the ruddy mat".

Seems to me that when we eventually leave - and we will- then the leave voters will still be saying it is remains fault when everything goes tits up

Would you care to elaborate?

So would I.

Yes, it's daft, but it honours the referendum result so nobody can then argue that our democracy has been damaged by overturning it in a second referendum.

The Good Friday agreement is an agreement between the UK and Ireland. While we were a part of the EU this was realtively easy to implement. Outside of Europe it becomes a nightmare. Which we haven't resolved. Why you think Europe should sort out our problems after we leave is puzzling

No I saw it but it is irrelevant to your claim that

"The Irish issue can be solved by a future relationship agreement something the EU won’t discuss until after we’ve left."

^ I have pointed out that it not true, and you have been unable to back it up, predictably.

Unless there is a change of government it will be none(WTO),  or a Free Trade Agreement. Brexiteers have been talking like future trade agreements are mysterious things, that you can keep adding +'s to. They are not, there are standard international models that get tweaked, but only tweaked.

They are not, the WA could lead to anything from the softest of Brexits to no trade deal at all.  You have been had!  Why do you listen to Brexiteers but not read my posts? It's not very nice you know.

You are anti freedom of movement, anti ECJ, or that's what you'd boiled your position down to last week. Has that changed?

Whether or not it's what you now say you wanted this is what you've been voting for. Own it.

Not at all though I think another 5 years of misrule by the Conservatives' far right Faragist rump is most likely. No government exposed to the severe economic shock this so called government has engineered will be able to resist the pressure to pare back public services, to sell off any and all 'surplus' assets as revenue collapses and borrowing costs soar. The deregulation of the economy, bringing the tax havens home to London, that'll happen faster under the Conservatives but revenue starved governments of all hues will be susceptible to the promise of scraps from the table.

jk

Indeed.

FTFY

Even Boris ain't sure of that anymore

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/09/brexit-latest-news-bo...

I don’t think that the EU should sort out our problems

It isn’t a UK problem as it includes RoI and as they will still be a member, the EU as well.

Of course it’s complicated, it’s Ireland.

However, if the Belfast Agreement could be negotiated then it cannot be impossible for the border issue to be resolved.

I can assure you that I read your posts with great interest.

You do, however, have the habit of taking my period views as being aligned with the present government.

They are not.

The only Brexiteers I listen to are those on this forum, it’s not usually a well populated conversation.

Johnson is a vehicle to ‘get Brexit done!’ after which there will be a general election.

We May Yet end up with a very close relationship with the EU.

That’s when his master plan will be unveiled and you’ll all stand humbled at his awesomeness.

After which there will be at least a decade of very difficult negotiations from a position of profound weakness consuming all of the government's resources. 'Getting brexit done' is pure bullshit! What they mean is 'making the brexit process irreversible'.

Indeed but more likely given the radicalisation of the electorate the brexit architects have engaged in we end up with almost no meaningful relationship with the EU and we balkanise the UK in the process.

jk

He'll announce which ditch he's chosen then?

Have you been in contact with local Tory groups/MPs/MEPs to let them know that you don't support this madness? Unfortunately, you may not agree with it, but your vote is one of 17.41 million being used to justify it.

Are there any prominent politicians, journalists or commentators who elucidate a position that you feel aligned with? Stephen Kinnock or moderate Tories for example?

Johnson and Cummings have whipped up a crisis through their nasty, jingoistic rhetoric. In doing so they've dangerously undermined our democratic institutions, our relationship with the EU and our national reputation. Do you honestly think that things are just going to settle down to some nice friendly relationship, same as it was before, with that pair in charge, having dragged us out without a deal?

And if Labour wins the next elections?

Or forms a coalitions with the Lib Dem’s.

Is it still the same scenario?

It’ll a good  job (for him) that he’s not a man of his word.

There will be a deal.

Or an extension.

Johnson and Cummings, neither has a clue as to how to deliver what they promised.

Well it is the only other country with a physical border with us so it kind of is our problem. Unless we want a re-emergance of the troubles.

But it hasn't after 3 years of "negotiation".

The answer to the border issue lies in the future relationship that will be negotiated should we ever manage to agree a WA.

That's just what being in the EU requires: compromise.

Unfortunately, Brexiteers aren't prepared to compromise with the EU.

Not prepared to compromise within the EU.

My partner who is European went to a factory yesterday as part of his job and a few seconds after entering he spoke to a worker there who must have sussed out he was European, that worker went to another worker said something then raised his voice to loudly proclaim " just wait til after brexit mate "!

It's getting worse out there BTW. 

I was in TK Maxx yesterday where there were several people speaking a language that wasn’t English.

Could have been Polish, Romanian, etc.

Certainly wasn’t French, German, Spanish or Welsh.

None of them were insulted, patronised or stared at in a funny way.

At least not while I was there.

Why would you have?

You are making a point that is unnecessary :of course not all brexit voters abuse Europeans, for example I voted for brexit, now wish I hadn't. The point is that Europeans are openly being made to feel as if they should not be here and trust me it is getting much more noticeable to Europeans as my partner is confronted with it practically every week.

So much so that I have felt ashamed and embarrassed when these are told to me. I have many more examples one even involves a xenophobic instructor paid to teach but clearly didn't want this European to pass his exam that would get him a job in that field so purposely and deliberately made things harder for the European and made life much easier for the other British that were being taught.

These people are seriously embolded to behave like this because of brexit. 

My point is that some people will abuse others.

Some will have become emboldened by Brexit.

That’s some, not the majority and certainly not all.

Don’t tar us all with the same brush.

Well that completely misses my point as I would be tarring myself to. 

You don't have to face these xenophobic people every week so it's easy for you to dismiss this but if you did I think you would see it differently. 

What I am pointing out is that this has got much worse where it is now considered normal now to openly behave in xenophobic ways by ordinary people where that was once the domain of neo-nazis and the far right. 

It’s neither normal or acceptable for the vast majority of people.

It's becoming increasingly normalised by leave politicians though. Did you see the latest effort from leave.eu? A picture of Merkel with the strapline "we didn't win 2 world wars to be told what to do by a kraut". Johnson's continued use of the term "surrender bill" and countless other examples all legitimise xenophobia and racism, stoking up hate. It is absolutely chilling for those with eyes to see.

I wouldn’t have a clue where to see material published by leave.eu but I’ve seen the picture as it was highly publicised by those expressing concern about its use.

I totally disagree with Johnson’s tactics.

And his Mekon adviser? The real voise of Authority?

I presume you mean Mr Cummings?

The man who is credited, by some, with delivering the leave result.

If he is responsible for an aggressive approach to delivering Brexit then that’s OK.

If he’s responsible for the divisive, aggressive, abusive language, etc then he’s a disgrace.

It has to be possible for politicians and their advisors to deliver Brexit while remaining civil.

Why not?

And, if not, maybe you shouldn't dole out such advice for others:

Because I voted to leave in a manner that has since come to be known as a hard Brexit.

Since that vote I, as in me personally, have offered to compromise my views and would accept a softer Brexit as in remaining in the customs union.

I offered to stay in the EU rather than have a very soft Brexit - soft as in remain in ECJ, freedom of movement, customs union and single market.

I offered to remain in the EU if we could not be a net contributor like most EU countries.

All of those compromises have not only been rejected by people on this forum but they and I have been ridiculed.

Yet, with very, very few exceptions, those who support remain have offered nothing, as in not a single thing as a compromise to their position. It’s remain, end of.

I think I’m in a far better point to give advice about compromise than most posters on this forum.

I voted to leave the EU.

As in leave the customs union, single market, ECJ, etc.

Since then I’ve compromised and would settle for leave while still remaining in the customs union.

Heck, I’ve even said I’d rather remain than be in some half in half out limbo.

How does that make me responsible for what has indeed become a shit show?

I'm with you on this Baron. I too voted leave. But now I don't give a f-ck if we stay.

The usual names on this thread that pop up as on all Brexit threads and many other threads lambasting folk for expressing an opinion. 

God knows why I bother to read this shit but somehow I still do.

Baron is not singly responsible for the mess we are in. If he is we all are and you all know it.

You can all say what the f-ck you like about me too. I wont be bothering to find out. Get a life the lot of you. Get off the mud slinging at each other. For Christs sake UKC is a climbing forum, why the hell can't you just stick to that and get on with each other instead of all the bickering and fighting!

Well that was probably the most stupid and pointless post I have ever seen on UKC. Please don't bother posting again if you have nothing of any conceivable value to say.

That’s very harsh.

If conceivable value is a criteria for posting on Brexit threads on UKC there’ll be far fewer posts.

At some point I hope the penny drops as to what the tactics of such people (including Farage and Cummings) really are. They continually and deliberately overstep the mark and then offer a half-hearted retraction. This is analogous to making an unreasonably high contract bid and then are seen to be 'reasonable' in being prepared to accept a slightly lower (but still unreasonable) offer. The result is that people end up thinking the lower offer must be about right after all when in fact it's still outrageous.

This is how people end up thinking that EU freedom of movement is a bad thing, even though actually persecuting EU migrants might be a step too far. And end up thinking the Hobson's Choice of selling out to damaging US practices is preferable to reaching agreements with the rest of the EU as one of its most influential and once-respected members.

We've been dragged down a damaging rabbit hole and many people are now convinced they want to be in that hole, as long as we aren't in any deeper.

There is a difference between at least attempting to add something relevant to the discussion and simply rudely rubbishing all those who are doing so.

I see value in these Brexit threads because in "real life" I only know one person who I know to be a leave voter, so it is really the only chance I get to engage with them without risking undermining a friendship.

So your suggested "compromise" is to send our crack team of negiotiators back to the eu (before the end of the month) and have them say "We've got a new proposal, Baron says we'll stay in the eu, on all the same terms, as long as we don't have to pay anything. Deal?"

You will forgive me if I have little faith in our government to negotiate anything. It is an issue that would never have arisen if we hadn't gone down this particular rabbit hole.

But still I suppose a few more pub bombings might sharpen their minds

So what? You voted for whatever version of Brexit you had in your head at the time of the referendum. That version may or may not have been the same as that imagined by others, but we'll never know because a clear picture of what Brexit meant was never properly articulated by the various Leave campaigns. 

I'm afraid your compromises are meaningless. You have no role in deciding how we proceed. The vote was in 2016, not now. Your compromises are no better than closing the stable door well and truly after the horse has bolted and escaped into the next county. 

You still want to leave, we still want to remain. 

Pretty similar in the long run yes if as seems likely we crash out with no deal. Less so if May's deal passes, in that circumstance it may be possible for a pro-EU government to settle us into a holding position from where return to the EU is possible within a decade or two.

Either way we still have a radicalised population with unrealistic expectations nobody is even trying to manage. That is a ticking bomb. The economic pressures applied to the different governments are the same and their responses to them will ultimately be quite similar constrained by what is possible, likely real and necessary austerity the like of which we haven't experienced for generations. Likewise the Westminster government, whatever rosette it bears will not be able to heal the rifts this one is creating in Ireland and Scotland, we lose what little control we had of those situations on Halloween if we crash their economies in pursuit of an English nationalist fantasy. It will then take some truly great leadership in the coming decades and a dose of luck to then ensure the UK is dismantled peacefully.

jk

I was pointing out how, during  the years that we’ve been debating Brexit, I have been willing to change my desires in order to achieve a compromise.

And how, with very few exceptions, remainers on this forum haven’t taken a similar approach.

I also pointed out that the usual response to any of my suggested compromises was ridicule.

It’s always good to be proven right.

I and a lot of other remainers would have accepted a Norway-type arrangement, which appeared to be a definite possibility in 2016, but the leave zealots kept moving the goalposts and pushing for more and more extreme versions of Brexit. That's where the failure to compromise has been. 

Which is a binary choice.

Except it isn’t, is it.

I don’t think that all the compromise that I listed are workable but they provide a starting point for a discussion about what might be possible.

Except, as I said, most remainers on this forum want remain in the EU to mean exactly the position we have now. Nothing else will do. 

I would suggest that it’s remaining in the EU that is the Unicorn that remainers so often quote.

Changing what you want after the vote is irrelevant. How does your changing your mind help?

You mean that remainers haven't taken your approach and changed their mind. That's true.

Ridiculous comments give rise to ridicule?!?! Well I never.

Pigeons, chess etc.

You have a perfectly functional Ford Focus which seems to serve your needs pretty well in general. A salesman comes along and convinces you that you could trade it in at no cost for a top of the range Merc, and he shows you photos of all the different shiny models you could choose from. It sounds too good to be true but the salesman in very convincing.

Once you've signed on the dotted line you go to choose your replacement vehicle and it turns out the only one they actually have in stock is a clapped out banger with only 2 wheels. But as a gesture of goodwill and compromise they offer to put 2 more wheels on for you.

You then drive the smoking heap home and show it to your friends, who were sceptical about the offer right from the start. Is there any wonder they won't be in a hurry to accept a similar compromise and trade their own vehicles in?

I think you may have entirely missed my point.

Being a member of the EU means you won't always get your way. That requires compromise. That's the compromise I was suggesting you ought to make.

Any collection of people, no matter what size, requires members of that collection to compromise.

Labour's brexit includes a customs union.

Farage's only policy was no compromise, out out out.

You say you'd settle for a customs union to compromise and deliver a version of brexit but then you go and vote for Farage.

I'd settle for Norway if there is still public consent but it isn't on offer so I'm left with implacable opposition.

Because they're ridiculous. They only consider your vision of British interests, they do not acknowledge others' interests or the power imbalance in this negotiation, they do not consider the historical baggage we cannot simply dump as inconvenient.

jk

Thanks for sharing that story.

Is it supposed to refer to Brexit?

It's an analogy. You're clever enough to understand it.

Mr Cameron went to the EU not long before the referendum and returned with the only compromises that the EU was prepared to make. Even though they were faced with the possibility of one of their member countries leaving. 

The UK, well those who could be arsed to vote, still declined the opportunity of remaining in the EU and changing it from within as some have suggested we should do.

Indeed.

But, while not wishing to insult you, it’s not a very good one. Sorry.

I have some sympathy for what you are saying. There is intransigence on the remain side that could backfire and result in the worst of all options.

However, that is very much a secondary problem compared to the intransigence and deceitful hard core Brexiteers who are now running the show.

You will remember that I said that I’d rather vote for Corbyn than for Johnson. 

I voted for Farage in the European elections which as far as I know won’t have any affect on how Brexit pans out.

It doesn't matter what remainers want. They didn't win the referendum and have no role in determining how we proceed. The leavers won, and it's for them to work out to deliver the outcome of the referendum. 

We could get there without having to deal with the zealots. A customs union deal would give a transition period, and the trade deal negotiated during that could basically give a soft Brexit. Lib Dems and SNP won't vote for it though, and they are needed if you want to cut most Tories out.

Academic if Boris wins an election.😞

Your call. Enjoy trying to convince people you did the right thing by trading your car in for a heap.

Agreed.

And that’s partly because politicians have hijacked Brexit and turned it into whatever suits their personal agenda.

There’s probably been more detailed debate about the options for Brexit on this forum than there has been between politicians.

What might appear strange is that, as you said, some remainers would accept a Norway style agreement whereas I, a leaver, wouldn’t.

If the only choice was remain or Norway style I’d rather stay fully in the EU.

Complicated this Brexit, isn’t it?

But I don’t have to convince people do I?

That’s the remainers job if you want to remain in the EU and you’ve failed to do so, so far anyway.

Leavers, the people who actually voted to leave for a variety of reasons, have no more say in the Brexit process than remainers.

Once again the politicians who think they know what’s best for us are going their own merry way(s).

We voted for them. That is the will of the people.

I agree about the hard core brexiteers being a problem.

But I’m not sure that Johnson is actually hard core anything, well except for lying.

There’s talk of the EU offering an extension until June with the conditions that the UK holds either an election or a referendum.

I’m no sure whether or not they’d actually do that as it gets them involved in domestic politics and it might create more problems than it solves.

So you agree that your compromises are meaningless. Glad we've got that sorted.

They’re  meaningless in that politicians don’t listen to the likes of you and me.

However, unless you can get Johnson, Cummings, Corbyn, et al to post on UKC, me and a few others are all you’ve got if you want to discuss Brexit.

I didn’t very for Johnson.

Don’t tell me that you did!

Who cares, you haven't faced that choice, you faced a choice between what you say you'd compromise on and no compromise. You voted for no compromise.

As far as you know. You're an evidently bright adult, you cannot be serious in believing your choices had no consequences. The swing toward Farage's hard line, away from the Conservative's comparatively moderate pre-2019 approach under May lead directly to where we are today: Johnson in no.10 a 'yes prime minister' cabinet of fantasists, incompetents, English nationalists and the disgraced charging headlong for the no-deal cliff, trampling the constitution in their rush. You and millions like you sent a crystal clear signal with your EU parliament vote that May's measured approach would lead to electoral annihilation, with that you made the Conservative party into Farage's puppet.

jk

Indeed.  I'm torn.  A customs union is a much better option than no deal, and I fear that this is the best that will be on offer (and maybe not even that).  

But, however you look at it, this is still a far worse deal than what we already have (as many Leavers, including you, seem to agree) and yet I do see that MPs pushing for Remain could endanger any sort of compromise being agreed.  Were I a current MP, I honestly don't know how I would vote if some version of May's deal were represented now.

Unfortunately, rational analysis now has very little to do with it; it's all about what is politically and procedurally possible.  My preferences, based on our long-term economic interest, would be Remain > Norway> customs union > no deal (no such thing in reality, of course).  Politically, I now think that certainly Remain (and perhaps Norway/EFTA)  could only happen if confirmed by the result of a further referendum.  Deciding what the question would be promises to be no less contentious than the current chaos.  Because (probably) the Leave means Leave vote is more homogenous than the Remain/Deal faction, any three-way choice runs the serious risk of that being the winning option but, of course, with nothing like a majority. 

Or is he ?

Sure, but in his desperation to become PM he has thrown his lot in with them. If he was going to change course he would have sacked Cummings by now.

What ?

Don't you realise that Farage has used the effect of your vote (among others) to threaten the Tories and push them even further over the abyss than they were previously. And because they're scared of losing power some of them will do anything (no matter how hare-brained or illegal) to keep it.

So, as a leaver, who should I have voted for in the Euro elections?

Boris, change course. Surely not?

Farage/UKIPs success in the EU elections has been repeatedly cited as evidence of how much the public want to get on with leaving (and a hard brexit at that) so I’m not sure you can claim it has nothing to do with how Brexit will progress. 
 

I had several blue rinse wigs and sets of pearls for that very purpose.

I listened to Tony Blair on TV last night expressing his opinion that a referendum and not a general election was the only way to resolve Brexit.

It was pointed out to him that a referendum, with a remain or no deal question, would galvanise leavers possibly allowing them to win while an election would split the leave vote between Cons and Brexit Party, possibly resulting in a win for remain parties.

He still seemed to favour a referendum even if it meant leave winning.

There’s also talk of Johnson challenging Parliament to revoke Article 50 when Parliament sits on what’s now being dubbed Super Saturday.

Whatever happens, something has to and the sooner the better.

😀

As a leaver who claims to believe the workable compromise is a customs union based brexit you probably should have have voted for the party saying they would negotiate a version of brexit based on a customs union. That's Labour. You had your opportunity to send May's government that message but instead you voted for no-deal, now you are getting what you voted for.

jk

The Brexit party is undoubtedly pushing Johnson to get Brexit done.

He might take that to mean a no deal Brexit.

Given that whatever happens there will be a general election in the next few weeks Johnson had better be sure that he knows what the people really want.

I voted for the Brexit Party in the Euro elections and plenty of people voted for the Green Party but that doesn’t necessarily translate into e general election result which is Johnson’s main aim, not delivering Brexit.

I did consider Labour and might again in a general election.

I discounted them because their position on Brexit wasn’t (some will say still isn’t) clear.

Rightly. If the electorate wants to leave on known, available terms with the consequences clearly spelled out by those who can be held electorally/legally accountable for their words then we should. An election, distorted by FPTP and other issues does not clearly and adequately answer that question, it never can (which is also the problem with the LibDems' position however unlikely it is to be tested).

Yes. He's trying to set up a deal vs no-brexit choice by scuppering an extension to remove the do-nothing option. If he succeeds and we should  assume he will now or in again Spring with the budget vote at stake. Our parliament will likely reject both no-brexit (requires a fresh mandate they can't agree to seek) and May's WA (a referendum amendment will fail then Labour will not back it unamended). By a narrow margin we then crash out by default.

jk

It was crystal clear that they would renegotiate a customs union based exit. You chose no compromise.

Farage is pushing get brexit started, to make it irreversible. It won't be 'done' in 2030.

jk

You must be one of the few, including Labour MPs, who are totally sure about Labour’s position on Brexit.

I’m listening to Corbyn on BBC TV right now and I’m not sure.

Many individual MPs disagree with this, from both sides of the debate, and say so publicly. That is the real cause of confusion.

I wouldn't bet on things happening necessarily that fast. Belgium ticked a long for a couple of years without a government quite recently. As long as your civil servants keep turning up and getting paid (although in some countries even the latter doesn't always seem necessary for the former still to happen!), our systems can be oddly self sustaining. The US hasn't really been a functioning political system for a long time when the co-equal parts of government are split between the parties - yet as a state they still fight wars, do trade deals and so on.

This Brexit fun and games could go on for years still!

Yet Corbyn just swerved a question about whether the ref would think place before or after an election.

He also mumbled something about wanting to see changes to the EU before a referendum.

I say mumbled not to have a dig at Corbyn but because what he said wasn’t very well enunciated.

Yes, the WA is potentially just the beginning of a long period of negotiations.

Should we ever leave the EU it will be interesting to see what arrangements are made to allow things to function as normal and how fast negotiations progress when both sides would benefit.

No he hasn't

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/10/brexit-latest-news-bo...

There's lots of it that is up in the air but the bit that apparently matters from your perspective has been rock solid for years: they will work to deliver a brexit that protects jobs, one based on a customs union with the EU. Personally I think that's bullshit, that leaving the single market will cost jobs and living standards but it's the closest fit you'll find. What they have given no hint of is backing out of brexit without the public's explicit informed consent and as a democrat I'd like to hear you make a case against that if that was your problem.

jk

My problem with Labour was that they needed to make their position crystal clear.

Which shouldn’t be too hard.

However, despite apparently having confirmed their position at Conference, there are calls from certain sectors of the Labour Party to hold a ref before an election.

Corbyn was asked about this ten minutes ago and swerved the questions.

When the Labour leader can stand up and give a clear statement of Labour’s position including debunking alternatives put forward by his own party then voting for Labour would be a lot easier.

They did, it was settled at the EU elections: they would renegotiate a customs union based brexit.

So what, there are differing opinions in every party. So far this year you've steered the Conservative party onto a hard line no-deal track. Policies change as the situation does.

He can't 'debunk alternatives', ideas are always open for discussion, he isn't all powerful. Policies evolve, but if you support them they become more stable. Their current policy regarding a customs union and respecting the 2016 result has been stable for years.

You chose extremism now you're making excuses as we face the consequences of that choice together.

jk

Is the Guardian correspondent lying, at an event many others were present at?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/10/brexit-latest-news-bo...

Or did you perhaps mishear?

I hate to halt this discussion but as a result of some off the comments, lakes and dislikes on the currently running EHIC thread I shall be withdrawing from all Brexit threads.

I’m sure that my withdrawal will be no great loss but I have enjoyed, if that’s the right word, our exchanges.

That seems fair enough, that thread has gotten unpleasant pretty swiftly.

For what it’s worth, while I entirely disagree with both your position on Brexit and a lot of the reasoning you use to justify it I have often thought you’ve done well to continue to engage politely (or atleast giving no worse than you get) on these threads when you’re heavily outnumbered by the number of posters wanting to argue with you. 
 

I post a lot less than I used to, but still read (well, skim, at least) most of these threads.

Like many here, I disagree with you about almost everything - including this.  I think it most definitely would be a loss if you stop posting in the brexit threads.

Your posts seem to have become a lot more articulate since you first started posting here, perhaps as you have become more engaged with the discussions.  It must be a lot of work swimming against the tide of UKC opinion, but lately I've started to value your opinions (wrong as they are for the way they make the place less of an echo-chamber for my own view of things. 

Some posters here resort very easily to chucking out a lot of abuse (sometimes with provocation, sometimes not so much), and lately I've been impressed at how you resist the temptation to do likewise in spite of the unnecessarily personal replies you sometimes get.

If the likes/dislikes in particular get you down, have you considered hiding them?  (At the top right, under User>User Options>Forums there is now a box to tick that effectively turns the feature off.)  They would still be visible to many of the rest of us of course, but much easier for you to ignore as you really should.

Dislike given for this ^^^

That really does put the evils of Brexit and associated death threats in perspective; the very roots of our civilization are being undermined by  the import of the word "gotten" into this country's vocabulary. It is suddenly becoming pervasive. Drastic action is needed to stamp it out.

Well you were the last one here honestly willing to mount a defence of what brexit has become so that will be missed.

I'm aware I've played a big part in you leaving and that's regrettable but so far as I'm concerned given where we've got to you're now defending the indefensible. I try to be civil but I'm not able to hide my anger and frustration.

Sorry and good luck.

jk

I had genuinely no idea that was an Americanism. However, since post-Brexit we’ll be dependent on and subservient to the US I’m just going to claim I’m ahead of the curve. 
Having looked it up I note that it actually originated from Middle English, which again makes me very progressive, since once we’ve finished turning the clock back to the 1950s I imagine the Middle Ages will be a logical next step. 

What about the Tories ?

They're for leave, just not a bunch of violent racists like the bunch you voted for (and support !).

Classic Muphry's law (albeit I thought Robert was being ironic). Must be time again for the wonderful Stephen Fry link about grammar pedants: 

youtube.com/watch?v=J7E-aoXLZGY&

Once went to a wedding Thorton Manor, where Varadkar and Boris are meeting. Nice venue.

+1 to this 

you’ve been a model of civil engagement and good humour on this. 

I think your contributions will be missed more than you realise 

(I still think you should email your local Conservative party chair and no 10 to explicitly disown the approach the Tories are taking; one person makes no difference, but if enough moderate leavers make their voices heard it can pressure them into moving away from a no-deal outcome)

I think quite a few American usages are originally British ones which have dies out in this country but not on the other side of the Atlantic. But I don't think that should be an excuse! The other one which has become common alongside "gotten" in the last year or so which grates equally with me is "off of". Both just sound ugly and unnecessary to me.

Me too!

Quite a posh do as I remember; i dont suppose for massive coincidence's sake the groom was employed in a senior role in a now defunct merchant bank? Matt and Claire.....?

Don't think so, it was an ex-girlfriends colleague so not much retained. I remember boring someone with talk of Cheshire sandstone, which the hall is made of.

I would personally, very happily take an EEA/EFTA style deal right now, leaving today without a referendum if that was on offer. In fact I would have taken it three years ago too. Up until the Lancaster House speech, I felt that we should leave. But May's pandering to far right of her party and her aggressive rejection of remain voters set us on the path to our current position where compromise is no longer possible.

I maintain my belief that remaining is still the best possible option for our economy, industries, jobs etc. Of course that must be balanced by what is best for our democracy and for the decency and cohesion of our society.

I've posted plenty of arguments on UKC justifying why I think the referendum had a massive democratic deficit, and why the result is not democratically legitimate. I believe that to accept it as a mandate to leave without question or ratification deeply undermines our democratic standards. A second referendum with an option to remain against a credible leave option is the best choice for our democracy.

And what about our society? Wouldn't remaining lead to a huge outpouring of anger and civil unrest? Well, perhaps. But the potential disruption and violence will be nothing compared with a no-deal scenario if Yellowhammer is credible. And the hard Brexit with a WA that you favour will still be looked upon as a betrayal and a stitch up and could also lead to potential unrest. Sadly I think that some unrest and violence is now latent in the situation and unavoidable. So I prefer the choice that limits economic damage and doesn't appease the extremists.

So that is my remain position laid out and justified. I hope you'll agree that it does contain room for compromise.

Furthermore, I've described in other threads the wide ranging constitutional changes I'd like to see, changes which I think will go a long way to solving the issues which led to this situation in the first place. So my position is "remain, listen and reform", not "remain, maintain the status quo and pretend the whole thing never happened".