Melbourne unlocking

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I saw a report on the BBC news about Melbourne coming out of lockdown, having been free of new infections for three weeks.

It then went on to moan about the economic damage that lockdown has caused. I couldnt tell if this was simply a 'whinging Pom' slant for the BBC, or genuinely represents Aussie feeling.

As far as I'm concerned, eliminating the infection is a bloody amazing achievement, and the Aussies should be bloody proud of themselves for having the determination and discipline to manage this feat.

3
 Toerag 24 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

...and if they operate good border controls they'll be able to unlock completely and go to 550-person raves like I did at the weekend

1
 Stichtplate 24 Nov 2020
In reply to Toerag:

> ...and if they operate good border controls they'll be able to unlock completely and go to 550-person raves like I did at the weekend

They locked down hard in the first place and both Australia and New Zealand quarantine new arrivals in guarded hotels for 2 weeks minimum. Guests stay in their rooms with food left outside the doors and two negative covid tests are required before release. Meanwhile in the UK...

In reply to Toerag:

> they'll be able to unlock completely

And return to normal economic activity, thus recovering quickly, rather than lurching from lockdown to lockdown to lockdown to... with the never-ending economic fallout...

 Helen R 24 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> It then went on to moan about the economic damage that lockdown has caused. I couldnt tell if this was simply a 'whinging Pom' slant for the BBC, or genuinely represents Aussie feeling.

> As far as I'm concerned, eliminating the infection is a bloody amazing achievement, and the Aussies should be bloody proud of themselves for having the determination and discipline to manage this feat.

Because if you've been made redundant, or your business is about to go under, there's little comfort in 'at least we're doing better than the UK/US/whereever'  

Don't get me wrong, I think there is national pride in Aus and NZ about how well things are going, but that's not to say the pandemic isn't having a very negative effect on many people's lives.

In reply to Helen R:

It's having a very negative effect on people's lives everywhere. But eradicating the illness gives you a much better chance of making things better, quicker.

1
 Helen R 24 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

I absolutely agree. But I don't think this was a slant for the BBC, there is genuine concern about the economic impact here in NZ, and in Aus.

 dbrooks 24 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

I live in Melbourne and there has certainly been a large amount of anti-lockdown sentiment and not everyone agrees with how Dan Andrews (the state premier) has handled the situation (even now, with the virus effectively having been eliminated). 

Living through the lockdown here was tough and at times it genuinely felt like it would never end, but fair play to Dan Andrews for standing his ground, being led by modelling and science and having a clear strategy in place. Despite all the flack he has faced, you would have to say he is now looking vindicated.

Whilst the economic impact of such a prolonged lockdown have been devastating for some (particularly small business), I think the prospects for a swift recovery are now much greater with community transmission effectively being eliminated.

In reply to dbrooks: & Helen R

Thanks for the local insight. I wasnt trying to belittle the damage, just more impressed by the achievement, and what that could mean for recovery.

 neilh 24 Nov 2020
In reply to dbrooks:

Maybe worth telling people that it is still only 10 peope inside in a restaurant.

I have a business associate who lives there. Fortunatley he is in the mining and aersoapce sector and was able to travel freely with the right pass.

Like in everything it was not a total lockdown and there are still some restrictions in place ( numbers inside and outside a restaurant).

He is not sure that it was worth it as there were alot of exemptions to keep the economy going. Bascially you could go to work including travel unless you could WFH.

The big thing was enforcing quarantine  espcially the 14 days in hotel.

 Martin Wood 24 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

I think the combination of winter and lockdown stage 4 was pretty awful plus wearing face masks out in public and at work all day took its toll. The 5km travel restriction must also have felt a bit absurd in regional areas where there are only about three people per square kilometre. 

I'm not sure either that the Melbourne experience was much different to ours in terms of determination and discipline. After all, we're not that dissimilar.  

According to a friend on the ground in the eastern suburbs, the whole thing came down to not being able to trust people to social distance or to self isolate. In reality, returned travellers getting locked up in hotel rooms was a bit of a farce. The system was lax, with security guards taking the virus home. 

Victoria is a bit different to the other states in that metropolitan Melbourne has other satellite towns nearby - Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo - but, across the country, the distances and low population density would certainly have helped check inter-state spread.    

 neilh 24 Nov 2020
In reply to Martin Wood:

The lax issue was ages ago. They quickly learnt how to deal with that.

 Lurking Dave 25 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

Yep, very proud here. The economic bounce back is tangible - people are being rehired, cafes are reopening, God it is good to be able to go to a restaurant.

Normally builders shut from Christmas until after Straylia day at the end of January, this year they are taking four days off. I’ve said on here previously that the long term benefits of demonstrating good governance and effective management of the pandemic will payoff massively for places like NZ. I would take a bet that in 2022 NZ will have more tourist arrivals than in 2019 (displaced from Europe etc.)

 Helen R 25 Nov 2020
In reply to Lurking Dave:

Hey Dave, so glad to hear you've made it out the other side of these last few months 

It does seem like this elimination strategy is the right one long term, however hard the strict lockdowns are. Bloomberg has just rated NZ top, and Aus not far behind, for resiliance to covid. Its been bloody hard at times, but as LD says, there's real pride at what we've achieved down here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/ 

 neilh 25 Nov 2020
In reply to Helen R:

If you look at the table in Bloomberg there is a fascinating column about access to vaccines( which is the real long term solution).That is the real game changer.

baron 25 Nov 2020
In reply to Helen R:

No mention of the Isle of Man?  

 Helen R 25 Nov 2020
In reply to neilh:

Yeah, absolutely. It's been reported here that NZ has secured 5 million doses of vaccine, enough for the entire population. And this is why it has sneaked ahead of countries such as Japan and Korea in these rankings. 

Also, interestingly, that's why the USA is higher in these rankings than you might think it would be based on the situation today. If nothing else, 2020 has shown us that you can't foretell the future. It will be interesting to see just how much a vaccine changes things for individual countries.

Post edited at 10:09
 TobyA 25 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

My friends in Melbourne both work in socio-pharmacology/epidemiology research at one of the universities, Simon is a prof. so they're pretty switched on to what's going on. Simon's activities on Strava have suddenly ballooned as he and friends have done celebratory 150 km loops out into the country, he actually said it was nice to have an Emirates 777 fly over them as they cycled out past the airport, I know Jenni, his wife who is Finnish, has been really feeling cut off by the lack of possibility of traveling to Europe even though I don't think they've actually had to cancel a trip yet. I know my partner (also Finnish) has found it hard not being able to make the much shorter trip from the UK back to Finland - she was meant to be going briefly with our youngest back in March, then our summer family holiday there got cancelled too. So I guess the distance from Australia just compounds that. Interestingly Simon reckoned the hardest thing for them is their oldest kid has started school but the schools have been closed since March! It seemed plenty of folk with primary aged kids here had had enough of Joe Wicks and home schooling by June, so imagine having to homeschool your kids for 8 months. I could see why that would make people not so impressed with the policies.

 neilh 25 Nov 2020
In reply to Helen R:

If you turned the table round and just looked at vaccines  then USA, China. UK and Canada would be at the top.

So others will have "won the battles but not the war" so to speak in military jargon.

A really fascinating table nevertheless.

 neilh 25 Nov 2020
In reply to TobyA:

The comments form my business assocate were similar.And there are still measures in place as he pointed out to me.

 LastBoyScout 25 Nov 2020
In reply to dbrooks:

My cousin lives in Melbourne with his wife and son. They've just announced they're expecting their 2nd, so they've clearly been able to make their own "entertainment" during lockdown...

They couldn't wait to get out of lockdown and the curfew, but don't seem to have resented it.

 racodemisa 25 Nov 2020
In reply to Helen R:

Re the US it's a big country there have been some states that have been overwhelmed (eg New York ) almost. but also states that have very low infection rates(eg Wyoming) as compared to European countries for instance.

 neilh 25 Nov 2020
In reply to racodemisa:

The NYT produces some superb graphics as to the spread of Covid on a State by State basis.You might be surprised as to how similar the infection rates are between NY and Wyomong in terms of  hotspots.

Wyoming is a serious hotspot at the moment, despite it being a pretty desolte place ( having been and driven through it I can tell you it is bleaksville Arizona).

At the moment Wyoming is 2nd overall for new cases per 100,000 peole.

 TobyA 25 Nov 2020
In reply to neilh:

The upper Mid West appears to be f***ed currently, but also Texas - El Paso in particular. I was listening to Dr. Peter Hotez on Fresh Air earlier, https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/11/24/938375308/vaccine-expe... his comments about telling his adult children not to travel to come and see him over the holidays because they would have to transit through areas of very high infection were quite sobering. And yet governors resist mask mandates because hundreds of deaths a day in their state isn't enough to convince them that they're rhetoric is utter bollocks.

 neilh 25 Nov 2020
In reply to TobyA:

Speaking to somebody in Juarez yesterday. It’s horrendous.  

Post edited at 18:22
 Toerag 26 Nov 2020
In reply to racodemisa:

> Re the US it's a big country there have been some states that have been overwhelmed (eg New York ) almost. but also states that have very low infection rates(eg Wyoming) as compared to European countries for instance.

Wyoming 53k per million

Spain 34k, Belgium 48k, France 33k, UK 22k, New York 33k, USA 39k

Obviously some places have under-tested (UK), but Wyoming doesn't have a very low rate of infection at all.

In reply to Toerag:

Deaths are a more accurate measure of the level of infection, assuming a consistent fatality rate, which, given all those locations are 'first world', barring demographic differences, is probably not far from the truth.


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