UKH

BBC saying Russian troops have been forced out of Lyman. Slava Ukraine.

This is good news, and it should be something to celebrate, but the reality - given how the fall came about - likely involves Ukrainian soldiers having to force themselves to kill tired, hungry Russian soldiers who only remained because they were scared they’d be shot (or worse) by their own commanders if they retreated. In victory, the Ukrainian soldiers are forced to loose a part of themselves they’ll never get back. 

That it has come to this.  What a god dammed waste where it’s not a question of which side wins but of which side looses the least.  The UN has completely failed as an institution and that must be addressed or the future only gets darker.

With a bit of luck the Ukrainians can again go fast through Russian rear areas and take a large area with fewer casualties (for both sides). I think they're 25km north of Lyman, maybe even further towards Svatove (50ish km NNE from Lyman).

The further the Ukrainians push the more supply lines are lost by the Russians, forcing reorganisation and further weakening the positions of the front lines. It's clear from the Karkiv oblast breakthrough that much of the area behind the front lines was essentially devoid of troops, so hopefully you're right.

The UN's always been a flawed institute. It kinda needs to be to fulfill its function.

Considering the actions of Russian troops elsewhere, especially in relation to civilians, I have no sympathy for any of them - and I imagine that is why you had dislikes.

I'm sure that not all of them have been that bad, but too many evidently have been, and it's not surprising due to the racist attitude that Russians have for just about anyone else, particularly those from countries they have historically regarded as colonies - to be treated as no better than slaves.

I understand and in large part I agree.  The horrors perpetuated are barbaric and inexcusable.  

Yet, if you or I had been born in their place, you or I would now be facing their raft of bad choices.  These soldiers started out as innocent babies and it’s clear they’re not all born evil, but their lives have been bent this way.  I feel it’s important to maintain an understanding of happenstance - “there but for the grace of god go I” and to recognise the scale of lost potential, of destroyed humanity, in all of this.   

If I don’t get dislikes, it wouldn’t be worth posting.

And on that basis you think Ukrainians who need to kill them won't be affected?   Pointing out that war is utterly grim for all involved is hardly something to be "disliked".

"Too many" might well be really not many at all. I have a lot of sympathy for the rest.

Looking at it skeptically....

Yesterday Russia declares the area 'Russian soil' as a result of referenda. 

Today Russian troops are surrounded and forced out of an area of 'Russian soil'.

This could just be an excuse Putin has engineered for further escalation. 

I think that is overrating him and giving him the 4d chess player as opposed to pigeon chess player.

Rather than escalation I would think its just trying to retain a claim to the territory. If it had been properly planned it would have been initiated far early to try and provide some legitimacy to the process.

More likely the other way round, there are reports he ordered Lyman to be held at all costs as retreating before the annexation would have spoiled the party.

Not entirely clear how many Russian and proxy troops escaped or were there in the first place. Some reports that it was carnage on the road east to Kreminna. Things should become clearer in the next day or two.

The big question is whether the Russians built up a solid defence line around Kreminna and Svatove. If not (and I suspect there’s a decent chance of this), we could see another major collapse. The other big question is whether the Ukrainians can sustain their offensive potential - ability to rotate in fresh units, maintain logistics and deal with the autumn weather. Ultimately the Russians could be forced back to the pre-February frontline, which would be quite an achievement.

Let’s not forget that the Russian troops on the western side of the Dnepr river in Kherson are pretty much cut off and doomed. I suspect the Ukrainians are dragging it out there through gradual attrition of Russian supplies etc because they don’t want to waste their soldiers’ lives through a full on assault. Again, reports that Putin vetoed a retreat across the Dnepr. I guess it would have cut across his plan for the referendum (though the fact that he doesn’t control Zaporizhzhia city didn’t stop him annexing the Zaporizhzhia region, so perhaps he could have pulled off the same trick with Kherson…).

Problem is, Russian soldiers have form for this sort of behaviour. I was re-reading Beevor's Berlin when this all kicked off, and the behaviour reported from Bucha and elsewhere was depressingly familiar. I think it's quite plausible that a culture of 'anything goes' is quite deeply embedded.

On another note... It's always worth remembering that Putin's father was a member of the Soviet equivalent of the Einsatzgruppen. Hard to believe the attitude needed for that didn't rub off on his son.

In today's news, https://nitter.hu/visegrad24/status/1576333259583025154#m

Make no mistake, this is what happens when you draft poorly disciplined angry young men (convicts, draftees, violence-drunk mercenaries etc.) to fight in a war nobody can properly explain or defend - and at the losing side at that. 

The same would (and indeed has) happened to soldiers drafted (or in some cases volunteered) into Western forces throughout history, in some cases quite recent. Yes, Russian propaganda has a tendency to dehumanise the enemy, which plays into this. But war, in and of itself, has a tendency to do that anyway. Hence why the laws of war are so important, even if rank-and-file soldiers tend to find the subject immensely dull.

Needless to say, I highly doubt Russian commanders had time or motivation to sit down and have a good chat with their subordinates about this. 

Tragic, a very brave and principled man.

Goes strongly against the story of "the evil Russians"

I agree completely. However, as far as the Ukrainians are concerned, their job is to close with and kill the enemy.

In those circumstances, having sympathetic thoughts about the Russian conscripts is going to get you and your mates killed.

The reflections and consequences of killing fellow humans can wait.

Totally agree.  The Ukrainian troops will do what they have to do.  But they’ll carry that forwards with them for decades.

I’m not asking for the Ukrainians to have sympathy now.  But faced with hopeless outmatched and demoralised troops forced to remain, and doing what they’re doing, they’re going to have sympathy and they’re going to carry a lot of stuff out of this event that stays with them for a long time.  Because Putin has been over riding his commanders on when to retreat.

Indeed. Far more reflections and consequences than should have been necessary.

Political leaders overriding military commanders does not generally lead to battlefield success.

Biggest example of this is Hitler (ahhh Godwin's? law strikes again)

Looks like Ukraine is moving rapidly on the Northern front after taking back Lyman.

And on the southern from (Kherson) there may be some rapid Ukrainian advances from the north.

All to be confirmed.

Shortly…

See also: Kherson?

Indeed, the Russian milbloggers are suggesting a very rapid U advance / R retreat, though it seems too good to be true. In any case, in the medium term, those troops stuck west of the river are doomed. I suspect the fighting season in that region is somewhat longer as well. 

The Russians are in a desperate position west of the Dnipro. Most of the commanding officers retreated to the east bank a few weeks back and only limited supplies can be made using those makeshift barges.

The Ukrainians have sensibly not sent lots of men across huge open fields just to get mown down by machine fire, rather waiting for artillery and HIMARS to reduce Russian resistance, hence the limits gains so far in terms of land. Once the Russian defences start to crumble there isn't really anywhere to retreat to, mass surrenders are almost certain.

The whole land bridge to Crimea currently looks stable but it's probably a lot of "white space" behind the lines. Any incursion by Ukrainian forces between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk towards the coast could easily spilt it in two. If that happens then it's all over regards russian occupation, total collapse and retreat within weeks. 

Editted for typos.

It depends. There are plenty of successes.

Kennedy kept the military under control during the Cuban missile crisis rejecting the initial proposals which would have probably led to nuclear war.

Churchill had a mixed record of interference. Sometimes succeeding and sometimes screwing things up.

Sorry to sidetrack but it annoys that someone clearly intelligent as you are, continually uses loose when you mean lose.

Really? When did Churchill’s interventions succeed? They’d have to be good to make up for the Dardanelles.

jcm

Without Churchill, you wouldn't have had the SOE and all of accompanying military units such as the Commandoes.  

Or Singapore 

Dyslexia does not reflect intelligence, and cannot be cured - you just work around it.

Fortunately it's easy to work around - as you pointed out, the rest of us know from context what's being said 🙂

Unconfirmed reports of 20km gains made in Kherson and potentially 25k Russian soldiers trapped between the advance and the river .... their front line collapsing.

I note that today Petraeus has suggested what would be the US reaction on a Russian 'tactical' nuclear strike - it will be for the US to take out the Black Sea fleet and all Russian targets in Ukraine with non-nuclear weaponry. I assume they have the technology.

I don't suppose it's official but I assume he knows what he's talking about and is also being used to non-officially confirm the likely response.

It does make some sort of sense - if I was a Russian squaddie or matelot I would be even more frightened than I was already.

Yes, I have also read (and shared here) analysis that suggests NATOs response to any tactical nuclear weapon would be massive conventional weapon response. Mainly inoccupied Ukraine, Crimea/Black Sea.

Petraeus comments this weekend definitely has backed that up.

I think - and indeed know, as Ukrainians are represented at work - that they have a history of being treated with utter contempt by Russians, and as such having their freedom taken away by those who would enslave them is something they cannot contemplate.

I also know others from nations who have suffered similarly in the past - Poles, Czechs, East Germans, Belarussians, etc. - not one of these would regard coming under Russian control again as something they would not fight against.

Are you honestly suggesting that peoples across Europe should just surrender and let the Russians keep going until they reach the west coast of Ireland - because that is what Putin would do if he thought he could get away with it. Not for nothing is he not invoking the Russian colonialists of yesteryear. As for the Russians themselves, they have gained from having slave peoples across the east and centre of Europe, in much the same way that the confederate states of the USA gained from having slaves up until the civil war, and that some persons in this country gained from slaves in the West Indies. The big difference is that Russia had slaves up until the wall came down, and Putin is trying to get those slaves back.

If certain military commanders hadn't turned the Dardanelles invasion into a slow march, with every move signalled in advance, then things might have been different.

At least Churchill took it on the chin, and literally went to the trenches in France. The idiots who screwed up his plan just carried on directing matters from the safety of their drawing rooms.

There's that quote from Lenin

"If you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw"

Err no. What on earth makes you think I am.

According to the the Guardian  Russia "no longer has full control" of the "annexed" regions.

Never did

Wintertree isn't dyslexic, I don't think, I know him a bit and my comment was within the bounds of banter.

It didn't come across as banter but if he's not pleading dyslexia entirely justified in my view

I think I've read him comment about dyslexia on here before?

But regardless, I didn't comment because I though he needed backup - he seems a fairly robust poster - I commented because there will be others on here who have been bullied as kids for dyslexia, had their intelligence brought into question by uninformed teachers, and been discriminated against in the workforce. For them it may not come across a banter.

You think wrongly:

https://www.ukhillwalking.com/forums/off_belay/ai_-_turing_test_consciousness+...

I’m massively dyslexic; I don’t take comments on my spelling personally though.  Perhaps I would if I was at a lose end…

I’m absolutely useless at same sound/different spelling words.  That bit of my brain developed to build visual mental models of complex processes and maths instead of learning the random mappings between the different languages that are written English and spoken English.  Given the choice, I’d take the positives of the dyslexic phenotype over the negatives every time.  I think 15 years of being nit-picked by academics and modern spellcheckers have got me to the point it mostly passes unnoticed but read my posts and you’ll find a lot of random incomprehensible word swaps and same sound/different spelling mistakes.  It helps that I proof read most posts as with all my other written works.

Perhaps the litmus test is that I can read Bascule the Tellers’s chapters in Feersum Endjinn more easily than the rest of the book.

That’s why I tend to comment if the topic comes up; mentoring undergraduate students for 15 years it was very upsetting to see how some of them felt about their dyslexia.  By the end, I opened my lecture course talking a bit about both the challenges and benefits of teaching and learning  with dyslexia.  It upsets me that it’s treated as a disability, not recognised as a different phenotype with pros and cons.  The pros are pretty strong but for a long time the cons stopped people getting to the point they could benefit from the pros.  I look back through the former Wintertree, Sr’s school work with horror - it’s clear he had worse dyslexia than I but the teachers (1950s East End) used to beat him for his perceived failings and had no concept of the reasons or of the benefits.  He clawed his way out of failing school with one O-level to a job where the pros won, but it took a lifetime.

I’m grateful to Aln for kicking off a bit of reflection, even if it is a massive thread hijack.  Sorry!

Thread hijack....

Have you seen this? https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.889245/full

Personally I'm more of the self loathing dyslexic type but thought the paper was actually quite insightful with regard the positive aspects of having a very oddly wired brain.

Let’s not forget that the Soviet state enslaved its own citizens. Literally so in Stalin’s time. Living standards in E Europe were better than in the USSR. Even within the USSR, the Baltics were better off than the rest. Of course the Red Army was ever present in all these areas and the local secret police plus the KGB were active. They weren’t free societies by any means but neither was the USSR.

Did the USSR gain economically from E Europe? Probably, but I don’t know to what extent in the scheme of things. Partly it was just a buffer zone against NATO. So I’m not sure your analogy is entirely valid.

I also don’t think Putin is looking for some kind of slaves. Rather, he seems to be obsessed with the idea of a Greater Russia and that Ukraine isn’t a proper country. It’s mostly a nationalist and racist ideology, rather than being economically driven (whereas slavery in say N America was driven by all three factors and economical considerations were key).

That said, your fundamental point is right - if people give in to Putin, he will just keep taking, while committing human rights abuses along the way. This is why the West needs to stand up to him. The way things are going, it might not require much more effort…

Ah but they haven’t actually defined the borders yet (why worry about such details?). That’s kind of convenient when the Russian army is in retreat on two fronts. I suspect Putin is waiting for the frontlines to stabilise (which they probably won’t do) before committing to actually drawing a line on the map.

I think history shows that the worst trauma seems to affect troops who are sent into questionable conflicts, particularly where they end up disconnected from their own society.  (Vietnam being a prime example).  I think the Russians will bear more cost in the long term as the Ukraine forces might have seen terrible things but they don't have the underlying doubt about whether their participation is justifiable or divisive from their community.

not to mention his (Churchill's) response to RV Jones approaches about setting up a scientific intelligence organisation that yielded up innovations throughout the war as well as countering numerous German technological advances in warfare.

(Most Secret War, RV Jones (with a bit of own trumpet blowing))

I think what wintertime was actually saying was more or less "war is hell and nobody really wins"

I don’t think my point came across well.  Edit: No, I don’t think I made my point very well.

Yes, everybody looses in war, but I get the sense Putin is willing to double down on that to hurt Ukraine in the long run. 

Putin has been preventing his soldiers from retreating, both by over riding commanders in the field and possibly by having the rear guard ordered to shoot retreating soldiers. Perhaps worse, given some of the reports of what the Russian aligned Chechen forces have been doing. 

Because of this prevention of retreat, the Ukrainian forces are having to kill a lot of soldiers who have been discouraged from retreating, and who are in a hopeless position.  The support for wounded Russian soldiers from their own side is close to medieval in its effectiveness. I have vastly better first aid kits for (a) walks with my 6 year old & (b) chainsawing than their soldiers have. 

When hopelessly outmatched Russian forces don’t surrender, we know what the Ukrainian forces  have to do, and they can and will do it, and my personal view is that they must do it. As Ridge has said, the time for processing it all comes later.

But that time will come.  Five, ten, twenty, forty years from now individual Ukrainian soldiers are going to be troubled by their memory of doing what they had to do. Wintertree Sr did what he had to do, but he never put those ghosts to rest right up until the end.

Putin is willing to have thousands of his citizen soldiers killed for no military advantage - indeed for a net loss vs having them retreat before it’s to late to get their heavy war machines out with them.  I can only see two ways Russia gains from their deaths.  One is that they have fewer soldiers coming home with severe PTSD, and the other is that their evitable deaths raise the future levels of PTSD and depression in the Ukrainian troops.

Its a very nihilistic view I’ve arrived at, but one thing Putin excels at is that when he does something awful, he maximises the advantages to him of the awful consequences.  He’s eager to sacrifice his troops for no short term military advantage, with an understanding of long term consequences.

Perhaps I’m doing my trademark job of over-thinking things.

It’s not just that war is hell and nobody wins, Putin is adept at making the hell of his opponents as awful as he possibly can.  He’s not the only leader to do this, but he’s the leader with the most significant power base.

Not seen any reports of retreating / deserting troops being shot. That’s not to say this hasn’t been threatened. However if it was actually done, I suspect it would have come out by now. There is however a new law proving a 10 (IIRC) year sentence for voluntary retreat or desertion. Knowing what Russian prisons are like, that might not be much better than being shot… Whether it would actually be implemented against large numbers of troops is another matter.

Meanwhile, the Twitter and Telegram channels are busy redrawing maps in an attempt to keep up with the Russian retreat in Kherson. 

You made your point perfectly well for another neurodivergent person to get it, I agree that war is shit and that the personal cost to surviving Ukrainian soldiers will be higher if they have to kill huge numbers of Russian soldiers who refuse to surrender, even if they have no real option, hopefully there will be support for Ukraine to rebuild and care for those harmed by Putin's murderous actions.

Hopefully the loss of fighting age males from the workforce (dead, surrendered or fled) prompts some changes in Russian society, however post WW2 events don't make this seem likely. 

Not sure how accurate or relevant this is, but it is an interesting side view.  My birther lives in the Czech Republic, and says his news (perhaps unsurprisingly) is full of the Ukraine war.  Apparently the dominant current Russian line is that they are fighting NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.  On the plus side, he is largely unaware of the UK political farce on his local news feeds.

I’m not sure of the accuracy of this video about Russian soldiers surrendering in Ukraine.

youtube.com/watch?v=mp5_YMt7N28&

But it looks like the Ukrainians are making an effort to encourage them to surrender through its ‘I want to live’ hotline and are having some success.

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/thous%C2%ACands-of-russian-troops-cont...

I find it surprising/worrying how little information there has been about POWs taken by both sides during the war. You’d have thought the sight of masses captured prisoners would make good propaganda material but perhaps as several people have said not many prisoners are being taken. Or, perhaps both sides are adhering to the detail in the Geneva Convention that is supposed to prevent publicly about POWs?

The Central Tracking Agency of the International Committee of the Red Cross collates information about POWs but the numbers don’t seem to have been published. Perhaps that’s because of the neutral stance of the ICRC as publishing the figures might seem to favour one side or the other. There’s a useful video about ICRC’s role at the end of this article.

https://www.icrc.org/en/document/olenivka-penal-facility-prisoners-war-and-...

The tragic thing is the way war brutalises people. In other circumstances most Russians and Ukrainians would get along perfectly happily. Putin has a lot to answer for.

Yesterday I saw the word "collapse" referring to Russian defences in both Kharkiv/Lyman region and Kherson region. I thought that was pretty remarkable - Ukraine advancing on two major fronts simultaneously.

Yes, based on what we are seeing in the media- admittedly probably not 100% accurate-the Ukrainians are doing a lot better than anyone probably imagined

Yes, the ‘fighting NATO’ theme is all over Russian propaganda. Often literally - claims of Western guns for hire comprising a significant portion of the Ukrainian troops. 

Well, there are western volunteers fighting in Ukraine. But there is no involvement of NATO national military forces, other than in training roles.

The lines have clearly been blurring more as time goes on.

Training of Ukrainian forces over the last 8 years by several NATO member states. Air assets, some owned by NATO and some owned by a few member states have clearly feeding information to Ukraine since before the February 2022 invasion. Nobody is even talking about what US NRO assets are doing for Ukraine.  US funding is going to commercial space providers to support Ukraine. Direct training of Ukraine forces by various NATO member states, more as time goes on and now in large numbers. Donations and sales of weapons from various NATO states, more (by capability and by volume) as time goes on. A significant number of international legion fighters from various NATO states with a very light touch legal approach brought to their toing and froing vs previous cases of westerners going to fight abroad (eg YPG Enternasyonel)

The claims of the Russian propaganda re: NATO were and are clearly false, but it’s equally clear that Ukraine is proxying an ever increasing amount of NATO resource against Russian forces.

Where do we go from here?

I think 'we' are desperately trying not to get involved in direct conflict, for two obvious reasons. Yes, we have from the outset been supplying vast intelligence asset support, and increasingly sophisticated weapons.

I know but the propaganda makes it sound like there’s loads of them.

I think a no fly zone, targeted strikes against key military assets in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet from day 1 would have been the way to go. Putin only understands power. I actually wonder if Biden regrets not doing it, knowing what we know now. It’s still an option now but the annexation makes the threat of nuclear escalation more real. I don’t know if Putin really has the balls for it. Problem is, Biden can’t really take that risk… In principle, MAD should prevent nuclear war even if there is a conventional one. In practice - ?

On a more realistic level, we need to give the Ukrainians the weapons they need in the amount they need. They aren’t getting enough of the good stuff.

Depends how mad the protagonists are.

This is true. 

Reports of the Ukrainians building up towards an imminent offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region. I’m amazed that they have so many reserves available. At the same time, Wagner are continuing pointless attacks in the Donetsk  region.

MAD is really about strategic weapons - hence the uncertainty about battlefield nukes

(oddly I used to work many years ago in an defence related organisation that had a Director of MAD! - made me chuckle when I read internal communications)