London always one better T4

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 The Lemming 19 Dec 2020

Tier Three not good enough for London?

Sounds like Lockdown to me.

Post edited at 17:35
8
In reply to The Lemming:

It is. 

Looking forward to the announcement that vaccination will be fast tracked in T4 areas and subsequent firestorm of vitriol on UKC.

1
In reply to Longsufferingropeholder:

It's already started.

1
 wintertree 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Longsufferingropeholder:

I think it’ll do people good to pack the vitriol away for the next few weeks.  

 Neil Williams 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

It's the same as November lockdown, basically.

 Stichtplate 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> It's the same as November lockdown, basically.

Only it’ll be even more widely ignored

 Pedro50 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

Well as far as I can see I am no longer allowed to leave T3 Durham to stay with my sister in SE London and visit our 94 year old mother in SW London on Xmas day. It's shit. 

1
OP The Lemming 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Longsufferingropeholder:

> It is. 

> Looking forward to the announcement that vaccination will be fast tracked in T4 areas and subsequent firestorm of vitriol on UKC.

No vitriol from me. I think Boris has been sensible, sooner rather than later.

Yes people are going to ignore b the new rules, however I hope the majority follow the guidance and reduce the spread.

Or the nation could have had a free-for-all for over a week, just to celebrate a festival that lost its true meaning decades ago and cause untold misery?

Post edited at 18:02
8
In reply to wintertree:

Me too. Wishing everyone a happy what's left of the festive season. Make the best of it one and all.

We'll be staying shut in the house, as we'd planned all along, and hoping January isn't the shitshow it was looking on course to be. 

 David Alcock 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

So, partner's daughter and probably half a million other Londoners trying to get trains out tonight... Couldn't see that happening. Gold Cup, anyone?

1
 Punter_Pro 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

I can only imagine the mass panic and traffic jams that are about to ensure in Central London tonight.

Do the Government honestly expect people are going to comply/that this is actually policeable? This is the British public we are talking about here... and it's Xmas.

 Lord_ash2000 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Punter_Pro:

That's my concern with it. For public health reasons it makes sense but in the big picture I'm not so sure. I think we'll see large scale rebellion against the rules with significant numbers ignoring to rules to a lesser or greater degree. This will have knock on effects for covid in January of course but the real problem is once a large number of people have stepped over the line and are no longer Willing to do as they are told anymore it's going to get harder and harder to enforce any future lockdowns.

In my view it's probably worth a little pressure release over Christmas even if that does end up making things drag out longer overall. 

17
OP The Lemming 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Punter_Pro:

Everything Covid related is unenforceable, there simply isn't the manpower or the will of the nation to go Totalitarian.

We, the nation in general have to play nicely and not act like Cummings and other irresponsible cnuts.

Post edited at 18:43
2
OP The Lemming 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

> In my view it's probably worth a little pressure release over Christmas even if that does end up making things drag out longer overall. 

Is that one of those euphemisms, to gloss over more dead bodies than would be expected just to share a mince pie with friends for a few days?

2
 Kalna_kaza 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

> We, the nation in general have to play nicely and not act like Cummings and other irresponsible cnuts.

The number of high profile rule breakers has totally undermined the chances of success with each successive lockdown. 

it was clear a 5 day free for all was going to be a bad idea. The scientific advisors have repeatedly been ignored or marginalised until it's too late. It happend in March, it happened in the autumn and it's happened now. 

The years of underfunding the police and patchwork enforcement results in diminishing returns with every tightening of restrictions. It's like a pushover trainee teacher losing the respect of the class and not being strict from the start, it's futile to start dishing out detentions just before Christmas.

I prefer small Christmases so the changes don't particularly alter my plans but I can imagine so many people feeling really let down by the late change of policy. 

1
In reply to Punter_Pro:

> Do the Government honestly expect people are going to comply/that this is actually policeable? This is the British public we are talking about here... and it's Xmas.

Well I expect that most will comply. I (pembrokeshire) was going to stay with my sister and her family (hertfordshire) for two days we have cancelled that straight away and I will stay put. My sister also cancelled having her daughter across even though she's only one hour away. 

I imagine/hope most people will make similar decisions.

1
 RobAJones 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

> Is that one of those euphemisms, to gloss over more dead bodies than would be expected just to share a mince pie with friends for a few days?

I suppose it means, its not just young children who "fail" the marshmallow experiment.

 kipper12 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Punter_Pro:

The Parisians were as bad, twice.  That people will bend/flout new restrictions is no reason not to try

 Offwidth 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

London hospitals are already close to full

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-london-nhs-hospitals-...

Add the two weeks growth in hospitalisations already locked in and things look really bad. Yes, London will be exceptional again, and its not funny.

I can't believe this change has taken as long as it has given the dire data presented today and my guess is Tier4 is almost certainly not enough.

Next problem is ..... I'm guessing half the economy has rapidly moved from Tier 2 to Tier 4 now..... why is there no business reassurance??

All this on top of brexit. My fingers are crossed that this doesn't shift into some first signs of social breakdown.

OP The Lemming 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Steady on dude.

1
 scoobydougan 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Thanks for that cheery note

 Blue Straggler 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

> Is that one of those euphemisms, to gloss over more dead bodies than would be expected just to share a mince pie with friends for a few days?

Come on, this is Lord_ash2000, the man who was posting in April/May that a load of vulnerable people should sacrifice their lives so he can drive to a nice local woodland biking trail and some bouldering! 

2
 SFM 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

If we stumble into a no-deal then I agree that some sort of social discord is entirely possible, maybe not immediately but once the penny drops. This govt have long ago lost any moral authority and quite possibly actual authority over their constant last minute volte-face actions. 

1
OP The Lemming 19 Dec 2020
In reply to SFM:

How the f*ck has this turned into a Brexit topic?

Isn't there anything else to discuss other than Brexit?

4
 balmybaldwin 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Except we are allowed to worship collectively and now can't got to scotland (unless of course it's for "work")

 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Blue Straggler:

> Come on, this is Lord_ash2000, the man who was posting in April/May that a load of vulnerable people should sacrifice their lives so he can drive to a nice local woodland biking trail and some bouldering! 

I think his point at the time was that going bouldering wouldn't kill anyone.

2
 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

> Except we........... now can't got to scotland (unless of course it's for "work").

You weren't allowed to anyway. It has been illegal to travel between areas of Scotland for some weeks. I assume that would rule out travel from England too.

 Dave the Rave 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

I know of some cockneys who are being very good and not coming to our friends house up the road. This is great for me and the dog. We have just inherited half a turkey. 

 Rob Parsons 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Punter_Pro:

> Do the Government honestly expect people are going to comply/that this is actually policeable?

What's 'law', and what's 'advice', in this sudden change of messaging from the various governments? 

Post edited at 21:22
 Rob Parsons 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

> You weren't allowed to anyway. It has been illegal to travel between areas of Scotland for some weeks. I assume that would rule out travel from England too.

But it was legal to travel between the 23rd and the 27th December. Has the law suddenly changed by fiat? Just trying to understand the detail here.

 Babika 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

What i don't understand is this: 

They knew a new strain existed in mid-November.

They knew it was spreading very fast on 9 December

Boris decided to keep London in Tier 2 until 19 December meaning mass pre-Christmas drinking, socialising and shopping in a city of 9million people. To help the economy y'know. 

Please don't tell me he's being competent or showing any leadership now. Its crap. 

8
 ScraggyGoat 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

....if I was an Islander tonight I'd be mighty pissed off, before christmas Level 1 and able to visit each other indoors, after Christmas Level 3. 

Highland based winter climbers are laughing though, post Christmas no competition even for classic routes, which won't be hooked out either.  Assuming the weather gods deliver.

 Lord_ash2000 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

> In my view it's probably worth a little pressure release over Christmas even if that does end up making things drag out longer overall. 

>Is that one of those euphemisms, to gloss over more dead bodies than would be expected just to share a mince pie with friends for a few days?

No, I'm just saying the extra lives lost due to Christmas mixing are likely less than the extra lives lost by decreased adherence to future lockdown rules once they get a taste for it over Christmas which many inevitably will.

People will follow rules but only to a point, once that line gets crossed it's hard to get people to do as they are told, as such there needs to be a bit of give and take. 

9
 ScraggyGoat 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

Legislation yet to be worded, but FM has indicated that cross-boarder travel for all but essential reasons will be banned. Scotland goes into Level 4 (except for the Isles) from 00:01 on 26th Dec, meaning restricted more or less to your Scottish local authority area, and all self catering, and tourism accommodation to close, except where housing essential workers, for funerals etc.

Post edited at 21:37
 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> But it was legal to travel between the 23rd and the 27th December. Has the law suddenly changed by fiat? Just trying to understand the detail here.

It has been illegal to travel between areas in levels 3 and 4 for about 3 weeks (advised against but not illegal for a few weeks before that). The lifting of restrictions from 23rd and 27th was only to be in order to visit households in a Christmas bubble. Now only on 25th.

 wintertree 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Babika:

> What i don't understand is this

Well, quite.  

Watching some jet planes fly tourists to far away places from Newcastle today, I imagine the leaders in a few dozen counties to potentially have had this variant exported to them from Britain in the last few weeks are probably asking the same question. 

Death rides a pale white airplane these days.

1
 Oceanrower 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> What's 'law', and what's 'advice', in this sudden change of messaging from the various governments? 

At the moment, in regards to the London/South East Tier 4 situation...

There is NO legislation published yet and, after his last announcement, the PM promised the back benchers a vote on any legislation change.

So. Either Tier 4 is just guidance or the PM is governing by fiat and will have some very pissed off MP's to deal with in the morning... 

 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

> Highland based winter climbers are laughing though, post Christmas no competition even for classic routes, which won't be hooked out either.  Assuming the weather gods deliver.

That has not changed with today's announcement.

1
 Rob Parsons 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

> It has been illegal to travel between areas in levels 3 and 4 for about 3 weeks (advised against but not illegal for a few weeks before that). The lifting of restrictions from 23rd and 27th was only to be in order to visit households in a Christmas bubble. Now only on 25th.

I am curious to understand how the 23rd - 27th 'exemption' was handled (or prescribed) in law. None of this can be in the 'gift' of the executive - can it?

 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> I am curious to understand how the 23rd - 27th 'exemption' was handled (or prescribed) in law. None of this can be in the 'gift' of the executive - can it?

Interesting question.

 oldie 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> What's 'law', and what's 'advice', in this sudden change of messaging from the various governments? <

Haven't looked at latest restrictions but previously I've been interpreting "should" as advice and "must" as law.

 Blue Straggler 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I think his point at the time was that going bouldering wouldn't kill anyone.

I think his point at the time (and probably always), is that HE should be allowed to do what he wants but other people should be made to follow rules and guidelines, or (if necessary) die. Unless they log an ascent weekly on the UKC logbooks. 

Post edited at 22:04
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 jkarran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> It's the same as November lockdown, basically.

Which was insufficient to curb the new strain in winter.

If the government's numbers for the new strain stand up we'll be under a nationwide stay at home order by mid Jan' with revised arrangements for food shopping, probably lasting 3-4 months.

2021 looks really bleak. 

Jk

 SFM 19 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

It’s not really, it’s just another cumulative factor in a pretty sh@te year. My thought process was more about the negative effects of Covid and the Govts responses. Pile another potentially economic destructive event on top and voila! Touch paper goes. Make sense?

 Rob Parsons 19 Dec 2020
In reply to oldie:

> Haven't looked at latest restrictions but previously I've been interpreting "should" as advice and "must" as law.

The point is that law is something passed by the Parliament involved - it's not something which can be decreed from day to day by the Executive.

It might be that, in this current case, the particular recently-passed law does indeed give power to the Executive to make sudden changes which they deem necessary. But that is quite a step, and it is what I am interested in getting clarity on.

 balmybaldwin 19 Dec 2020
In reply to jkarran:

Well the schools are shut this time for holidays.  I suspect any reopening in Jan will be very very limited

 balmybaldwin 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

I believe these fall under the so called "Henry the 8th" powers passed in april iirc essentially gov can do what it likes within certain bounds, however some MPs are saying parliament should be recalled, and this is different because it overalls the measures voted on in commons specifically for christmas period

 David Alcock 19 Dec 2020
In reply to Lord_ash2000:

I never thought I'd agree with you on anything. 

Xmas as was, was a stupid idea. Yet an electrified cattle prod has zapped the nether regions of the masses. I'm currently waiting on a London fleeer in Sheffield. (Hyphen or no hyphen?) Our little bubbles we've been strict with are about to pop.

If we want to talk about the worst possible 'pulse' of infection, today has guaranteed it. Better to have had a shitstorm than a completely concentrated shitstorm.

At least, that's how I read your meaning. 

 Rob Parsons 19 Dec 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

> I believe these fall under the so called "Henry the 8th" powers passed in april ...

Thanks, I'll look those up. Note that the same thing is happening in Scotland - under different regulations - so there is the related question of what's legally happening there.

Edit: Wales & NI too

Post edited at 23:31
 Robert Durran 19 Dec 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> Xmas as was, was a stupid idea. Yet an electrified cattle prod has zapped the nether regions of the masses. I'm currently waiting on a London fleeer in Sheffield. (Hyphen or no hyphen?) Our little bubbles we've been strict with are about to pop.

I've lost track of the rules in England. It it against the law (or advice) for such people to leave London? And to stay with you?

1
 David Alcock 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

First, as of midnight. Second, yeah. 

And I'm very cross.

2
 jkarran 20 Dec 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

I doubt they'll reopen properly until summer after a few faltering tries unless firebreaks are vaccinated into them. This is basically a new problem, if it's as bad as described (probably not the worst case estimate) today's announcement is catastrophic. We have to assume the variant is not confined to the UK, probably not even evolved here so we should still be able to borrow and keep borders semi-open postponing the worst outcomes. The timing with brexit is a cruel twist.

Jk

1
In reply to wintertree:

That's no way this is the only place something like this has happened. They will have sent us a few in return. There'll be plenty advantageous mutations outside the UK too. We're arguably in the fortunate position of being able to notice. We'll be both exporting and importing nasty new strains, including eventually the first one that's resistant to one of the vaccines. That'smy cheery thought for the day. 

 Darron 20 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

A 70% increase in Covids ability to transmit. An estimated 0.4 onto the R number is very, very worrying. Indeed it’s likely a pointer to disaster. 

At any rate now is the time for sustained personal responsibility. For all our sakes.

1
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> I can't believe this change has taken as long as it has given the dire data presented today and my guess is Tier4 is almost certainly not enough.

Given that tier 4 includes closed schools for (effectively) 3 weeks now, that puts it as basically the same as March.  What more would you add to it?  No going out even if you need food or medicine?

 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> It might be that, in this current case, the particular recently-passed law does indeed give power to the Executive to make sudden changes which they deem necessary. But that is quite a step, and it is what I am interested in getting clarity on.

The Coronavirus Act 2019, and one of the earlier Public Health Acts, does indeed allow this.  I'm not convinced it should; my view is that Parliament should have been immediately recalled (via Zoom) to vote on it, and I'm sure it would have passed, but out of principle.

 FactorXXX 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Darron:

> At any rate now is the time for sustained personal responsibility. For all our sakes.

Good luck with that as using UKC as an example, it appears that people scrutinise any new guidance/legislation and interpret it to allow them to do what personally suits them.

1
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> Which was insufficient to curb the new strain in winter.

I *suspect* that is probably because people were not complying to it very well (as they were going in each others' houses).  My view would be that November lockdown with adjustments to schools to allow distancing (50% attendance) probably would control it - *if* everyone complied to it.

I'm not sure how you achieve that - with a new strain "project fear" might work?  It did initially.  Or you are going to actually need Police knocking on doors ensuring people aren't there who don't live there.

Post edited at 00:54
1
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> So, partner's daughter and probably half a million other Londoners trying to get trains out tonight... Couldn't see that happening. Gold Cup, anyone?

How easy would it be to find out where they all went and arrest and "deport" them all back to London, I wonder?

As soon as the clock struck midnight, every one of them was committing a criminal offence.  It's about where your primary residence is during the period, not where you've gone before it kicked in.

Post edited at 00:48
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 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> Good luck with that as using UKC as an example, it appears that people scrutinise any new guidance/legislation and interpret it to allow them to do what personally suits them.

My observation is that UKC is by far the most "in favour of restrictions" and compliant forum (either Web or in person) I have come across for any of the pandemic.

2
baron 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Babika:

> What i don't understand is this: 

> They knew a new strain existed in mid-November.

> They knew it was spreading very fast on 9 December

> Boris decided to keep London in Tier 2 until 19 December meaning mass pre-Christmas drinking, socialising and shopping in a city of 9million people. To help the economy y'know. 

> Please don't tell me he's being competent or showing any leadership now. Its crap. 

Is your date for London entering Tier 3 correct?

 Rob Parsons 20 Dec 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> Good luck with that as using UKC as an example, it appears that people scrutinise any new guidance/legislation and interpret it to allow them to do what personally suits them.


As a general point, and unrelated to Covid: as a citizen in a democracy, you have a responsibility to scrutinize guidance and legislation.

The current UK Government is led by a proven liar, and contains the worst cabinet in living memory. Be very careful about wishing such people unconstrained executive power.

4
 Babika 20 Dec 2020
In reply to baron:

Yep you're right (and I'm wrong). It was 16th not 19th. 

But the point still stands. Where I live our Covid figures were 50% of London boroughs yet we went into Tier 3 straight after lockdown on 2 December. 

However my London based friends were busy posting pictures of themselves out having a pint and a scotch egg. Bars were rammed.....

Incompetence on a grand scale by our leadership, lulling residents into a false sense of security and jollity from early December when the figures were already terrible. 

2
 jkarran 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> Given that tier 4 includes closed schools for (effectively) 3 weeks now, that puts it as basically the same as March.  What more would you add to it?  No going out even if you need food or medicine?

I think we will see that added, at least how we do it will be changed, shop density reduced etc.

Our only option now is to drive cases right down with a very hard lockdown which will likely also be very long as it'll be barely effective. That time has to be used to radically overhaul the TTI infrastructure and perhaps reconsider where the first vaccine doses go for maximum public good. Grim.

Jk

1
 balmybaldwin 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Well they could go back to "essential workers" only

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

We have been discussing the peculiar rise in covid data in London and the SE for weeks on UKC and the scientists have been looking at the new strain since September. This must have been a consideration when the 5 days of Christmas were formulated and certainly known clearly when Boris was lampooning Labours calls for tighter measures at PMQs on Wednesday. 

Boris tells us all they are being cautious (and indeed seem to be when pissing off Greater Manchester). This London situation is a gulf away from caution. It must have been a political gamble in the face of the science.

I am not looking for harsher restrictions (they are possible, as France and Spain proved) but I am lamenting that tightening restrictions in London took this long and, worse, that they threatened schools with legal action when ordinary headmasters wanted to close early last week, and that the people and  half the economy got eight hours notice of change. In this covid crisis the science seems obvious and yet the government is 'caught with its pants down' time and again and has to resort to panic responses.

Post edited at 09:49
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 GrahamD 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Babika:

> Yep you're right (and I'm wrong). It was 16th not 19th. 

> Incompetence on a grand scale by our leadership, lulling residents into a false sense of security and jollity from early December when the figures were already terrible. 

And a failure of the much vaunted "British Common Sense", I'd have thought.  There is a limit as to how far people should attribute their own behaviours to the Government/ the media and take some responsibility.  Someone even blamed Margaret Thatcher the other day!

1
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> I think we will see that added, at least how we do it will be changed, shop density reduced etc.

Possibly more queueing outside etc.  But no way will we do "no going out even if you have no food or medicine left".  We aren't China.  There isn't an acceptance of "dying for the greater good" here like there is there, and nor should there necessarily be.

> Our only option now is to drive cases right down with a very hard lockdown which will likely also be very long as it'll be barely effective. That time has to be used to radically overhaul the TTI infrastructure and perhaps reconsider where the first vaccine doses go for maximum public good. Grim.

I'm waiting for the controversy if they end up sending all the vaccines to the South East and doing say over 70s there rather than over 80s everywhere...but that probably would make sense.

 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

> Well they could go back to "essential workers" only

Do many building sites etc work over Christmas anyway?  It's a good time for a lockdown because a lot of business closes anyway.

 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> I am not looking for harsher restrictions (they are possible, as France and Spain proved)

They are, but I'm unconvinced that stopping people going out for individual exercise serves any purpose, and no restriction should be imposed that won't reasonably be believed to achieve anything.

As for Spain, locking children indoors (mostly in gardenless flats unlike here) was institutional child abuse and totally unnecessary.

It's not a competition as to how strict a given country can be.  What is necessary is to impose measures that in reasonable scientific belief are necessary.

Another silly one is (actual) curfews and shortening shop opening times.  That means more people go out in narrower hours - totally wrong - better would be 24 hour opening so people spread out and those who are at greater risk can shop at 3am when hardly anyone is about.

> but I am lamenting that tightening restrictions in London took this long

Agreed.

> and, worse, that they threatened schools with legal action when ordinary headmasters wanted to close early last week

Yes, that was a disgrace.  Schools should have closed a week early, that would have made a big difference, and nobody learns much in the week before Christmas.

Post edited at 09:56
 neilh 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Why does it make sense? Over 80s still end up in hospital using up  resources. 

it is reasonably obvious that they should be doing that age group first with care workers.

that will help free  “space”  inhospitals.  

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Glad we are in agreement.

One thing I do think should happen is a near England wide lockdown, except the old Tier 1 areas ...making Herefordshire Tier 1 was another example of incautious politics in the face of likely scientific probability. The reality is the new variant is almost certainly across the UK and will out compete the older variants and grow in Tier 2 and Tier 3 (as it did in Kent).

Another thing that stinks is the people of Medway were othered by tory MPs and their supporters and the rest of the people of Kent were said to be applying common sense and deserving of Tier2.  It turned out it was almost certainly just a centre of the new variant outbreak and the common sense claimed was bs. Herefordshire had common sense according to its MPs and Tier 1 was the reward.  I wondered here what the odds were of 30% growth by the end of the month. It exceeded 30% week on week growth today. Forest of Dean next door has a consistent growth between 140 and 150%, week on week, over the last few days, in Tier 2.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/covid-cases-and-deaths-today-...

Post edited at 10:36
1
 RobAJones 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

> Why does it make sense?

A short term and simplistic view, with made up figures.

A 70 year old in London is 10 times as likely to be infected and therefore twice as likely to end up in (an overcrowded) hospital as a 70 year old in Cornwall.

Medium term this isn't going to help, but I'm not convinced they are looking that far ahead. See comments about schools above.

 FactorXXX 20 Dec 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

> Well they could go back to "essential workers" only

It never was Essential Workers only as there were exceptions such as manufacturing that were allowed to operate as long as they could conform to the guidelines.

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

Does it matter as yet? The first batch is all done and we need to wait for the next one.

The current vaccine once unpacked doesn't keep so the NHS had to quickly backfill the no-shows, so quite a few frontline staff and some lucky people outside the highest risk group got vaccinated.

 neilh 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

Any school time at the moment is valuable. 

 neilh 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

All sensible and excellent stuff. But I just do not understand this view that priority should be given to other groups. At this time of year it’s usually the elderly who occupy a lot of beds. Keeping them away from hospitals should be the obvious priority to free up resources. So vaccinating the over 80s is sensible. 

Post edited at 10:41
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

> Why does it make sense?

Because it makes sense to prioritise the areas of highest risk?

 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> One thing I do think should happen is a near England wide lockdown

I was very surprised that wasn't what he did, i.e. Tier 4 everywhere.

 RobAJones 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

> Any school time at the moment is valuable. 

Yes, but would having closed a week earlier mean that they can return a month earlier? If schools had closed a week earlier in March (along with other changes), they could have probably returned to near normal in June and July. 

 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

FWIW Milton Keynes has had very low cases pretty much throughout - we're a low density, very car-dependent town, which might not be great for the environment but is a perfect anti-COVID measure.  But then cases have just gone off the scale in a wide range of age groups.

That says something about the new strain, I reckon.  Perhaps it is viably airborne unlike the old one[1] - so it's just worked its way round people in shops doing Christmas shopping, and around secondary schools.

[1] Like say measles, which you can catch by going in a room where someone with it has previously gone.

Post edited at 10:46
 Neil Williams 20 Dec 2020
In reply to RobAJones:

> Yes, but would having closed a week earlier mean that they can return a month earlier? If schools had closed a week earlier in March (along with other changes), they could have probably returned to near normal in June and July.

Quite possibly.  It seems fairly evident that the sooner you act, the shorter (or more effective) measures can be.

 Robert Durran 20 Dec 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> Our only option now is to drive cases right down with a very hard lockdown which will likely also be very long as it'll be barely effective. That time has to be used to radically overhaul the TTI infrastructure and perhaps reconsider where the first vaccine doses go for maximum public good. Grim.

It is really terrifying. My calculations suggest that R=1.4 gives a doubling time of roughly twice the time for which people are typically infectious. So, if people are infectious for, say, a week, measures which previously kept the virus under control will give a doubling time of about 2 weeks. So, without a strict lockdown and a high level of compliance we are totally screwed.

 Alkis 20 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

It's all entirely sensible. It is also a big bummer and I'm not sure how I am going to cope. I live in what is effectively a building site. Only as of last week do I have a bedroom after 13 months of sleeping with the boxes, or in the van.

My mental health is battered to a dangerous degree from this all, I normally cope with such circumstances by being able to socialise. I am in a Tier 3 area and was going to take a break from this all by spending Christmas at my sister's, who is also in a tier 3 area. I cannot form a full on bubble with her because I have a lodger (in the only other room in the house that is a room). I just need to get away from this for a few days and there is no longer a legal way of doing so, plus being Tier 3 means that I cannot even legally go and camp somewhere in the middle of nowhere.

1
 oldie 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

> It is really terrifying. My calculations suggest that R=1.4 gives a doubling time of roughly twice the time for which people are typically infectious. So, if people are infectious for, say, a week, measures which previously kept the virus under control will give a doubling time of about 2 weeks. So, without a strict lockdown and a high level of compliance we are totally screwed. <

It does seem very worrying. Presumably most people who need to go into hospital have had the disease for at least one or two weeks. Thus whatever restrictions are imposed now those people will need beds over the next couple of weeks in hospitals, some of which are already approaching maximum capacity.

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

The old mutations were viably airborne indoors in poor ventilation. Some case studies were certainly down to aerosol spread. All the science so far on the new mutation points to a more efficient attack inside the body (and I'm guessing through that, higher viral loads). Space, Hands Face should be effective prevention but many people don't follow these simple rules (or cant at work, on a bus, or in school).

Post edited at 11:28
 wintertree 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Although increasing the efficiency of the internal attack mechanism(s) can translate in to more viable airborne spread.  

Droplets follow a wide size distribution, with their viral load and their time to settle/evaporate out of the air both depending on their size.   

A more effective attack mechanism makes a lower viral load infectious, which makes smaller droplets viable for infections.  That’s a very noddy take on it - which is all I can manage. 
 

Post edited at 11:38
 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

There are about 2.3 million people over 80 in the UK. At a guesstimate there are 5 million people under 80 with high risk due to underlying health conditions. How long will that take? First batch of vaccine was for 0.4 million.

My priority now we know about the new mutation would now be front line NHS and care staff (or sick leave levels will soar as covid spreads faster and exceeds capacity).  Next the old and ill in the general population, then care homes (alongside security being 'beefed up' until vaccination is done).

 Blue Straggler 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Alkis:

That sounds rough indeed. Would it be helpful to just sleep lots (or at least just lounge in a cosy bed all morning) to reduce your waking hours facing your building-site of a house, and then structure the whole day around having a simple 1 hour walk or bike ride followed by a long bath? Just to get through it all? 

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Yep..  say a fixed risk of being within 2m for 20 minutes indoors might become 15 minutes. However if people are not near anyone for anything like that time it won't be an issue at population level. Homes, secondary schools, workplaces, transport, university classes, churches will still be where it spreads. Hand washing after being in public places will be a bit more important but following the basic rules will be enough if people can and will do that.

 Offwidth 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Boris says its still OK to worship in Tier 4  London. Welby thinks it might be otherwise for the elderly.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/20/no-need-to-go-to-church-on-...

 jkarran 20 Dec 2020
In reply to neilh:

> All sensible and excellent stuff. But I just do not understand this view that priority should be given to other groups. At this time of year it’s usually the elderly who occupy a lot of beds. Keeping them away from hospitals should be the obvious priority to free up resources. So vaccinating the over 80s is sensible. 

The way I see it is we're now into a season long lockdown which has to be very effective but is unlikely to be while we still have access to work and basic services. Once prevalence is low the problem is better but getting there will be hard. It's worth considering whether vaccinating those who have to circulate in a hard lockdown might make the situation better, by making the lockdown (more) effective, than initially focusing on those at limited risk of infection but high risk of complications. I don't know what the answer is but the question has changed, the answer may have.

Jk

 David Alcock 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> How easy would it be to find out where they all went and arrest and "deport" them all back to London, I wonder?

> As soon as the clock struck midnight, every one of them was committing a criminal offence.  It's about where your primary residence is during the period, not where you've gone before it kicked in.

To your first, impossible, as you well know.

Secondly, although she did arrive before midnight, it was still an offence.

What do you do? Panicked girl runs for the first train. In the real world, should her mother have barred her doors? It's not going to happen is it? 

Anyway, I'm out of there for now, and had two floors of non-contact between us all night.

(Explanation to avoid repetitive questions: I'm a 50% single parent myself, and my partner also needs some care. It's not ideal, but within the law and the 'advice', and I've done my best to be as careful as possible managing the situation.) 

1
In reply to The Lemming:

> How the f*ck has this turned into a Brexit topic?

Because only a f*cking idiot gets into two wars at the same time.

One war - Covid - is unavoidable.   

The other war - Brexit - is completely avoidable and should at least be postponed until after the Covid crisis passes.   Boris should get on the phone to Brussels and say 'Look, we've got this new Covid variant and it looks pretty bad.  Can we get a 6 month extension on the transition period.'   Brussels will say 'thank f*ck, we don't want to deal with this sh*t now either' and everyone will be able to focus on Covid.   

Post edited at 14:49
5
 Alkis 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Blue Straggler:

Thanks man. Too much sleep made depression worse when I tried that 3-4 weeks ago, couldn't get out of bed after a while, so best not try that again. Anyhow, we're going off topic, I really should have started my own thread.

 Blue Straggler 20 Dec 2020
In reply to Alkis:

give me a shout via email if you like. FWIW I always look forward to your posts - lots of well researched “common sense” replies on tricky topics, and also lots of helpful tech stuff for me and others. So a big general thanks for all that 

 andyman666999 21 Dec 2020
In reply to Kalna_kaza:

> The number of high profile rule breakers has totally undermined the chances of success with each successive lockdown. 

> it was clear a 5 day free for all was going to be a bad idea. The scientific advisors have repeatedly been ignored or marginalised until it's too late. It happend in March, it happened in the autumn and it's happened now. 

> The years of underfunding the police and patchwork enforcement results in diminishing returns with every tightening of restrictions. It's like a pushover trainee teacher losing the respect of the class and not being strict from the start, it's futile to start dishing out detentions just before Christmas.

> I prefer small Christmases so the changes don't particularly alter my plans but I can imagine so many people feeling really let down by the late change of policy. 

This but also combined with a government who repeatedly disregard sound scientific advice and then u turn at the last minute when faced with increasing political and public pressure. And to make matters worse seems like they can't even be added to pretend to want to deal with the EU.  Most people have lost faith in their ability to govern. Why oh why was there not a credible labour leader in the election. 

2
 SDM 21 Dec 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

I suspect that being a shopping destination is a big part of Milton Keynes' recent rise in cases.

 Neil Williams 21 Dec 2020
In reply to SDM:

> I suspect that being a shopping destination is a big part of Milton Keynes' recent rise in cases.

Yes, quite possibly also that.  The shopping centre has, I read (hate the place myself and don't go there often), been really busy.

Other than the new strain, Christmas shopping is the main thing that's different from before - we have had a low level of cases pretty much throughout, even last time it was high in London.

Post edited at 20:49
 Offwidth 22 Dec 2020
In reply to SDM:

Milton Keynes is commuter belt. The new mutation has almost certainly come from London  The.infection rate more than doubled last week to 500 per 100,000. Being in Tier 4 is good as many other commuter areas are less than a week off that level of infections, growing faster and still Tier 2.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/covid-cases-and-deaths-today-...

 Neil Williams 22 Dec 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Yes, the gaps in tier 4 are odd, and there really should be a band of tier 3 around the outside of it - going straight from 4 to 2 is going to result in those 2s being in 4 very soon because there will be too much bleed, e.g. from people in MK driving to Northampton to eat out and shop.

OP The Lemming 22 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

Do you know what I find daft?

We are a small country/nation with exceptional transportation the lengthen and breath of it. It only takes a couple of hours to travel from St Bees to Robin Hood's Bay. And, going off google, 15 hours to do Land's End to John O'Grotes.

In a small nation it should be all or nothing. Either Lockdown or the same Tier structure for everybody.

On a personal note, I'm just jaded and numb by the whole thing.

I, thankfully, have not had Covid, yet. I will not enter a shop unless I have to. And everywhere I go I see the majority of people with a total disregard for Social Distancing.

I just went into my local LIDL on the outskirts of a well-to-do village thinking it would be quiet. at 08-30, the place was rammed and it was a free-for-all up and down the isles.

Now here's the kicker, Covid is still out there. Last night I attended a very young looking woman in her early 40s at home. She looked 20 something but caught Covid in November and spent a spell in Intensive Care fighting for her life. Now she has the joys of Long Covid and does not even have the strength to stand up without gasping for air like a goldfish in a deoxygenated fishbowl.

I went through the first wave of Covid shitting myself at work, subsequent waves have left my jaded and meh, but I still take all the precautions.

My only bit of advice is, even though you have the god given right to ignore Lockdown and Tier levels and do as you please because its common sense or just this once, follow the government guidance as best you can.

Don't know what else to say really, apart from I wish you all a peaceful and quiet Christmas.

Post edited at 11:47
 girlymonkey 22 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

Yes, I am getting fed up of people saying they are low risk because they are young!

Thank you for continuing to work and risk your health for others.

Any sign of you getting a vaccine soon? I hope so!

OP The Lemming 22 Dec 2020
In reply to girlymonkey:

That is kind of you to say.

As for the vaccine, I've heard nothing so far. My employer isn't known for getting a wiggle on.

You can't do enough for a good employer. 😀

 girlymonkey 22 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

My hope is that as soon as the other vaccines get approval, it should be much easier to vaccinate far more front line workers.

Am I right in thinking you are a paramedic? So presumably if you and your colleagues were supplied with the vaccine you could administer it to each other so not even have to wait for vaccinators to be available?

OP The Lemming 22 Dec 2020
In reply to girlymonkey:

> Am I right in thinking you are a paramedic?

Whoo, slow down horsey.

Don't go promoting me.😀

I'm quite content to be a Tech, holding the bags and making the Paramedic look good in front of the patients. Saying that, many a Double Tech crew get some god awful jobs to contend with and told there are no grown-ups available to lend a helping hand. Such times focus the mind and sphincter muscles.

Paramedics save lives, we save Paramedics. Well the ones that don't piss us off. 😂

There is a very remote chance that I'll be in the telly next year. The BBC are coming to town with their cameras and I'm feeling especially brave. Don't think management feel the same way about that though.

Post edited at 14:17
Roadrunner6 22 Dec 2020
In reply to girlymonkey:

My wife just booked her vaccine for the 30th. It's being rolled out here pretty well, a few set backs but that's to be expected. She's the second round of medics being vaccinated and its happening ahead of when they thought she would be.

Roadrunner6 22 Dec 2020
In reply to girlymonkey:

> Am I right in thinking you are a paramedic? So presumably if you and your colleagues were supplied with the vaccine you could administer it to each other so not even have to wait for vaccinators to be available?

I don't think that's the case. The actual injection part is only a small part. There's the monitoring and documentation, then social distanced waiting and monitoring for 15 minutes (didnt you need that). Here there's also insurance, but the actual vaccination part isn't the part causing delays. 

 David Alcock 22 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

A touching and sobering piece. A virtual (and hopefully non-contagious) hug and a merry Christmas from me. Hell, January and February are not looking good. Thanks for doing what you do. Atb D

 girlymonkey 22 Dec 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

We weren't really monitored after. We were sent to an area and told to sit for 15 mins and then just head off! I suspect no one would have said anything if we had left.

Either way, I suspect the ambulance base have the wherewithall to organise and run something for their staff, if they are allowed to. The numbers they are dealing with will be nothing near the bigger hubs, so documentation etc won't be as bad. Maybe it will be quicker to slot them into an existing system, I don't know, but it strikes me that if it is a capacity issue and vaccine doses are available then each ambulance station could organise themselves and get their staff protected sooner. 

 Toerag 22 Dec 2020
In reply to The Lemming:

> Do you know what I find daft?

Talking to oneself on UKC?

> We are a small country/nation with exceptional transportation the lengthen and breath of it. It only takes a couple of hours to travel from St Bees to Robin Hood's Bay. And, going off google, 15 hours to do Land's End to John O'Grotes. In a small nation it should be all or nothing. Either Lockdown or the same Tier structure for everybody.

Agreed. when the tiers were announced friends in the UK were complaining about being in a higher tier than they wanted to be, but the reality is that they were in commuterbelt for a city in a higher tier.

>  I just went into my local LIDL on the outskirts of a well-to-do village thinking it would be quiet. at 08-30, the place was rammed and it was a free-for-all up and down the isles.

My wife says it was bonkers busy here today - queues to get into the supermarket carpark across the road, and a queue all the way round the local M&S for the tills. We are unrestricted here still, but that level of demand will be replicated on the mainland.

> Don't know what else to say really, apart from I wish you all a peaceful and quiet Christmas.

and you!


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