In reply to MargieB:
> In previous threads, I came to feel Boris would endure and duck and dive his way to having to really give a 2nd referendum as his only manoeuvre but stay he would for the end of the tenure. But it could very well be a foreign affairs issue and fear of him handling it that prompts the possibility of the fastest no confidence vote with an overwhelming win and a GE. Just pure serendipity.
An overwhelming win for whom? Blundering into another war will change the calculus of course but at present I don't see a predictable and clear parliamentary majority emerging from a GE for any party or brexit position unless some form of pact emerges on one side or other of the brexit divide. At present that seems unlikely but if it does happen I suspect it'll more likely emerge and be successful on the brexit side delivering us a far right rump of 'conservatives' and a lunatic fringe of has-beens, looters, ethno-nationalists and idiots marching under Farage's banner.
Alternatively if Labour does as seems increasingly plausible unequivocally back 'referendum and remain campaign' there's no hope they'll stand aside for smaller remain parties in contested seats, to do so risks returning a rainbow coalition with an anti-brexit AND electoral reform agenda, the end of two party politics in England and their entitlement to periodic spells in power. The remain vote will split cleanly, FPTP will do its thing and and we get a far-right brexity catastrophe.
Nobody should be cheering for an election right now though it seems increasingly likely one will be forced by events.
jk
Post edited at 10:08