/ Is the Tory Party doomed?

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Bob Kemp 07 Jun 2019

In every scenario explored in this article they are:

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=prospect+lis+tory&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Is there any escape?

1
SC 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

I hope they are finished. I'm not sure whether Boris or Farage would make the worse option for PM, both are equally terrible options.

2
balmybaldwin 07 Jun 2019
In reply to SC:

Whilst they are both terrible prospects for PM. I would say that Boris is marginally less terrible.

3
subtle 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

Whilst I would normally revel in the disintegration of the Tory party what would that leave us with - Labour under Corbyn? The rise of Farage and his ilk? The Lib Dems and Change are not viable options either - so where does that leave us?

Depressing.

4
George Ormerod 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

Yes - if they deliver Brexit they will be punished by the majority who want to remain, and it will never be the 'right' Brexit because that doesn't exist; if they don't they will be hollowed out by the Brexit Party.  It's almost exquisite in the symmetry. 

I'm looking forward to Boris or another Brexiteer getting chewed up and spat out by their encounter with reality - currently all their approaches are delusional and aimed entirely at the ancient and Brexity Conservative party membership.

3
George Ormerod 07 Jun 2019
In reply to balmybaldwin:

> Whilst they are both terrible prospects for PM. I would say that Boris is marginally less terrible.

Would you prefer to eat a plate of cat shit, or a plate of dog shit?

3
pasbury 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

Hoist by their own petard.

1
climbingpixie 07 Jun 2019
In reply to subtle:

I'm hoping it leaves us with an inarguable case for electoral reform. FPTP under a 2 party system is bad but FPTP with a volatile 4 party split is a recipe for huge uncertainty and for hugely unrepresentative results. If we're going to end up in a world of hung parliaments and coalition politics then we really should do it properly and bring in PR so that the HoC broadly represents the vote share across the country. 

Roadrunner6 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

You never know, UKIP are now wiped out, these parties come and go and the Tories will remain.

I'm excited for an era of coalitions though.

1
Pursued by a bear 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

One can but hope.

The UK's relationship with Europe has been either the dominant theme or an undercurrent very close to the surface within the Conservative Party throughout my adult lifetime.  This time round it seems to have properly fractured them and any relationship therapist would tell them that it's probably time for the two factions to go their separate ways.  Whether they will or not is something we'll probably discover in the next five years or so; possibly a lot less than that.

The one thing that seems unarguable is that the job of leading them is something of a poisoned chalice.  Why so many people seem so keen to drink from it is something of a mystery; any sensible Tory MP would be waiting to see which way things panned out with the aim of becoming the next leader but one, or even the one after that, or the second leader of one of the divided factions.

Strange times; exciting, but not in a good way.

T.

1
Bob Kemp 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Pursued by a bear:

> Strange times; exciting, but not in a good way.

As in the (apocryphal) Chinese curse... May you live in interesting times.

stevieb 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

> Is there any escape?

cut back on infrastructure spending, sell anything you can get your hands on, run up the national debt and, with the help of your media friends, blame all the problems on the work-shy, immigrants and lefties. 

It’s worked before, why can’t it again? 

3
The Lemming 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

The Tories will not die for one simple reason.

Their voters have short term memories and are willing to forget any discretions after a few years.

Post edited at 17:49
4
AllanMac 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

If any party in our so-called 'representative democracy' persists in studiously representing less than half the population of the UK on the basis of an undemocratic, illegally conducted, 3 year-old referendum and outdated, unrealistic manifestos, then it will fail - and fail badly. Also, it is unhelpful that there are no signs whatsoever of any cross-party collaboration and debate on any important issues.

The impotent, outmoded, two-party system we currently have is thus unable to react in any positive way to instability and chaos, such as we are experiencing right now with Brexit. Not least because the issue has become a kind of ideological, quasi-religious belief system which by its very nature, is immune and unresponsive to new information, fact and probability. 

So yes, I think both the Tories and Labour are doomed, unless the entire political system in the UK is changed via PR into something that can legitimately be termed representative, and democratic. If such change is not implemented urgently, we will continue to have the likes of Boris and Farage vomited upon us from a hideous political system that has become very sick indeed. 

3
baron 07 Jun 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

> The Tories will not die for one simple reason.

> Their voters have short term memories and are willing to forget any discretions after a few years.

No we don’t and no we aren’t.

5
summo 07 Jun 2019
In reply to stevieb:

> cut back on infrastructure spending

When you can private finance everything schools, hospitals etc.  So the debt comes back to haunt the future governments in office and it looks as though it was your party that spent money on improving services.

>  sell anything you can get your hands

Such as national Gold reserves

> run up the national debt

After claiming you ended boom and bust 

7
pec 07 Jun 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

> The Tories will not die for one simple reason.

> Their voters have short term memories and are willing to forget any discretions after a few years.


On the contrary, we well remember the last time we had a full on left wing Labour government in the 1970s with the winter of discontent and IMF bailouts and how even the Labour Lite party brought us to the brink of economic meltdown a decade ago.

Perhaps it will take a Corbyn government to teach the younger generation who don't remember these things why there is a Tory party.

9
The Lemming 07 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:

> On the contrary, we well remember the last time we had a full on left wing Labour government in the 1970s with the winter of discontent and IMF bailouts and how even the Labour Lite party brought us to the brink of economic meltdown a decade ago.

> Perhaps it will take a Corbyn government to teach the younger generation who don't remember these things why there is a Tory party.


Its not the Labour Party on the verge of extinction because of the ERG though.

4
French Erick 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

One can only live in hope. I actually think that people who think on the other side of the political divide deserve better than there is actually on the right. I also want Labour to suffer the same fate. People on center right and centre left also deserve representation, and they are perfectly entitled to not have to go together to a centrist party for that.

keith-ratcliffe 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

I think that both the Labour party & the Tories are currently in crisis because they are so entrenched in the past. Neither is projecting a vision of what the future might be if they had control. Brexit seems to have hi-jacked any sense out of either of them.
I felt quite optimistic about Blair's view of a social enterprise economy and even the Cameron 'Caring Capitalism' provided some hope. But to me neither party is currently offering anything positive, they are simply fighting each other and themselves. 

Jack 07 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:

> .... and how even the Labour Lite party brought us to the brink of economic meltdown ...

And here's me thinking it was the subprime mortgage crisis, caused by the bankers, that was responsible for that. 

The Tories do love a good scapegoat

Post edited at 22:05
4
pec 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Jack:

> And here's me thinking it was the subprime mortgage crisis, caused by the bankers, that was responsible for that. 

That was the trigger but the gun had been loaded over the previous decade when they were spraying cash around like there was no tomorrow because they'd "ended boom and bust".

17
john arran 07 Jun 2019
In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

> I think that both the Labour party & the Tories are currently in crisis because they are so entrenched in the past. Neither is projecting a vision of what the future might be if they had control. Brexit seems to have hi-jacked any sense out of either of them.

While that seems true of the majority of Tories, I think it applies only to a minority of Labour MPs, unfortunately mainly those in control of the party direction. Which, of course, is no accident, since those in high positions within Labour have been put there specifically because they will offer no threat to the backward-looking and reality-denying leadership.

Jack 07 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:

They love a scapegoat, and you have fallen for it. The sub prime crisis was the cause. The following crash was used as an excuse by the tories to push through the ideological agenda of the small state, and the diversion of public money into private hands.

Post edited at 22:02
3
summo 07 Jun 2019
In reply to Jack:

> They love a scapegoat, and you have fallen for it. The sub prime crisis was the cause. The following crash was used as an excuse by the tories to push through the ideological agenda of the small state, and the diversion of public money into private hands.

If you ignore bank deregulation(through 3 Labour terms of office) and limited control over banks loan to asset ratios. There was little regulation and no spare capacity in many countries bank. Even today it is only a bit better. 

3
ian caton 07 Jun 2019
In reply to SC:

Farage is worse. Boris does what's good for Boris. If Boris gets it he has the chutzpah to completely change direction if that's what's good for Boris. He's no ideologue. 

1
Jack 07 Jun 2019
In reply to summo:

> If you ignore bank deregulation(through 3 Labour terms of office) and limited control over banks loan to asset ratios. There was little regulation and no spare capacity in many countries bank. Even today it is only a bit better. 

I'm not ignoring bank deregulation. I remember it happening in 1986 i think, under Thatcher. 

1
Bob Kemp 08 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:

Where did you get the ridiculous idea we had a 'full-on left wing Labour government in the 1970s'? Callaghan was no leftie - he introduced the first monetarist measures and cut public spending. 

summo 08 Jun 2019
In reply to Jack:

> I'm not ignoring bank deregulation. I remember it happening in 1986 i think, under Thatcher. 

True. But Labour did nothing for 3 terms to reverse it. Both parties are equally accountable for letting them do as they pleased.

4
In reply to Bob Kemp:

We have had a soft left, progressive majority in the country, i.e. more than 50% of voters vote for Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/ Plaid/Green for a while.

But the Life of Brian described the problems of 'splitters'on the progressive left. They can never get to agree on the way forward. 

The Tory party like Japanese Knotweed, death and piles will always be with us, I am afraid. It is a state of mind. Cunning, machaveillean, a touch of evil behind the smile, good manners and a handshake.

However, unless the Tory party returns to pragmatic, one nation conservatism ( I can't see much conservatism in the current bunch of revolutionaries) , it's present incarnation may well go under. 

Pefa 08 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:

> On the contrary, we well remember the last time we had a full on left wing Labour government in the 1970s with the winter of discontent and IMF bailouts and how even the Labour Lite party brought us to the brink of economic meltdown a decade ago.

You the one IMF bailout that we didn't even need as Healey admitted and how the oil crisis of 1973 nearly gave us aneconomic meltdown. 

> Perhaps it will take a Corbyn government to teach the younger generation who don't remember these things why there is a Tory party.

The Tory party are much older than the British party of the workers. You are wrong about everything it seems. 

2
wbo 08 Jun 2019
In reply to pec:. That's an I retesting reading of history.  Ultimately the problem was a subprime and bad loans cash thanks to excessive lending by deregulated banks- I'm not sure how UK spending affected that.

 I do recall Gordon Browns handling being commended - how has austerity worked out? was it/is it necessary, or has it just been a burden 

Finally if the only advert the Tories have is that the other side is worse, then yes, they likely are doomed as  they'll have no vision to bring them back together.

Andy Hardy 08 Jun 2019
In reply to summo:

The Tories have had the last decade to regulate banking and they have done sweet FA.

2
summo 09 Jun 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> The Tories have had the last decade to regulate banking and they have done sweet FA.

Lots of regulations have changed since 2008, in the uk, Europe and the USA. Arguable not enough because debt in all forms is still rising, but their loans to assets ratios are now a little better.

This of course depends on what kind of regulation you wish to see. 

summo 09 Jun 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> The Tories have had the last decade to regulate banking and they have done sweet FA.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-20811289

Andy Hardy 09 Jun 2019
In reply to summo:

So mostly they have kinda sorta addressed executive pay. But not done anything to stop the sort of activities which led to the crash in the first place, or really separated retail banking from the rest.

summo 09 Jun 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> So mostly they have kinda sorta addressed executive pay.

The article was 6 years old, regs on banks liquid reserves have certainly increased since then. 

> But not done anything to stop the sort of activities which led to the crash in the first place, or really separated retail banking from the rest.

Which activities? Futures, derivatives, shares, pension funds, insurance? Etc.. define retail activities?

Banking could be split but I think folk might be disappointed when they have to start paying for a current account... people generally expect banks to offer free card services, cash points, counter services, secure websites etc.. all despite having what is very little money in their current account after the first wave of post pay day direct debits go out etc.. It's doesn't come for free, it's being funded from something else. I guess it is a choice banks or people may make in the future. 

Post edited at 10:31
machine 09 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

No I don't think they are unfortunately. Labour needs to get rid of Corbyn as he is the most incompetent opposition Labour leader ever. With the Torries doing so bad in the Polls you would have thought Happy days for labour. They should be streets ahead. I am labour through and through but even I cant face voting for that muppet. The Lib Dems and the dirty Greens benefitted by all of the spoiler votes in our region which I thought would hopefully put a rocket up the arse of Labour. The rise of the Brexit party tells its own story about the discontent in the political system at present and all the SNP can do is rattle on about Scottish independence. Once Corbyn has gone then there may be a chance of Labour redeeming its self. Unfortunately it looks like BOJO is going to save the Torries from extinction. By the way he and Rees Mog are both in bed with Farrage. God help us. 

1
cander 09 Jun 2019
In reply to machine:

 Being fair I’d be surprised if the SNP did anything else apart from rattle on about Scottish independence - it’s what they’re for.

MargieB 10 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

Let Boris get in and at last you see the Con party for what they have been for a very long time. They've used PR  figures in the past to disguise their true agenda. Now you see what you get. May was a PR figure, not the true identity of the party.

Post edited at 18:50
In reply to Bob Kemp:

Of course they’re not doomed; they’re the party of greed and privilege. Their values are eternal. There’ll always be a Tory party; if not the present shower, some identical shower with a different name.

jcm

1
Billhook 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

The voting public will have all returned to their normal pattern of voting in a year or two.

MargieB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Billhook:

No they won't because Brexit is the biggest crisis we have faced and it is waking up the political awareness of the public at large. I don't think politics will be the same. It will go in a few different directions- a clamour for a more updated PR system, a diversification of political ideas to match the needs of the 21st century and the other scenario {if it just sinks back to before}, Scottish independence. And we are already seeing a hard right emerging and I don't think that is going away easily but it is merging into the Con party.

It is not ever going to be a  situation of political business as before imo.

Post edited at 09:11
1
jkarran 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

> In every scenario explored in this article they are:

Seems a comprehensive list of self inflicted deaths to me. The only glimmer of hope I see for them is parking brexit and buying themselves the 2 years until the next election to retell their story. Hard to see them making that work but it's the only option I can see that isn't instantly ruinous.

Jk

summo 11 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

After the next GE the conservatives will be in a coalition with the Brexit party. Corbyn will be sacked, a new blairite lite leader will come in and take over. The lib dems will turn down the offer of a coalition and remain sidelined. Two party politics will return. 

Whilst PR might be what the people want, the public don't grasp that a party can't deliver their entire manifesto in a coalition, so two party politics will return useless public thinking changes. 

freeflyer 11 Jun 2019
In reply to jkarran:

>> The only glimmer of hope I see for them is parking brexit and buying themselves the 2 years until the next election to retell their story. Hard to see them making that work

This.

I doubt it will happen, but if Boris could bring himself to throw Brexit out with the bathwater, and promise a united Britain instead, I think he could do well; he has the chutzpah. Something like the following:

For the Brexiters:
    control of immigration
    assurances about population pressure
    availability of benefits and services
    assert national identity
    blue passports
    control over laws
    preserve the Union

For the Remainers:
    customs union
    free movement of eu nationals
    availability of suitable immigrant workforce (healthcare and agriculture)
    assurances for business regarding tariffs and access to markets.

which I believe is not far away from the deal as offered by the EU.

Personally as a federalist there's a lot in there that is unsatisfactory, but nothing that I couldn't live with. I've left out free trade agreements as it seems to me that those are only interesting to the Tory fat cats and US commercial pressure groups; we can do without chlorinated chicken, thanks.

There would clearly be a big fight with good ol' Nige, who would wave the 'if it's not Brexit it's nothing' banner from the battlements.

Dave Garnett 11 Jun 2019
In reply to freeflyer:

> Personally as a federalist there's a lot in there that is unsatisfactory, but nothing that I couldn't live with.

Me too.

Sadly, I given up hope of any good outcome, although a permanent and fatal split in the Conservative party would be a start from which we could try to rebuild a humane and internationalist UK.  

summo 11 Jun 2019
In reply to freeflyer:

> we can do without chlorinated chicken, thanks.

It's a bit dated, think practices have long since changed. Plus it's not much different to chemicals many people use on kitchen work surfaces and bathrooms every day. People seem happy to have chlorine used in pools and drinking water treatment too. 

I would be more concerned about USA meat with growth hormones and excess antibiotic use.  

1
MargieB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to freeflyer:

Can't leave out the trade deal- crucial to the overall effect on economy and environmental and workers rights. WTO rules have us as a passive recipient "partner" in trade deals- we'll be desperate.

MargieB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to summo:

public thinking will change if Boris gets in. 

The Rory Stewart approach fudges/ falsely creates the idea of middle Con ground and in a way stymies that crisis that will force a change in attitude to PR.

I think the extreme Boris view will prevail and may have progressive consequences constitutionally.

Nice as Rory  Stewart is,  his view is further "left" than May's and even she was got rid of.  He himself is hopelessly deluded that his views will prevail in the Con party. He is a sad product of a background that by default becomes a member of Con party by virtue of class associations. Has an epiphany of another world view but is in the wrong party at the wrong time in the light of his new views. He's trying to reason out a Con change to reflect his own political growth. As May called them the Nasty party and failed to be other than done over herself by the nasty party, so shall Rory Stewart. Doomed and what's left, A Boris Party and that is not going to be popular.

Post edited at 14:07
1
baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to MargieB:

Once again, Mrs May didn’t call the Conservatives the nasty party.

Harry Jarvis 11 Jun 2019
In reply to baron:

> Once again, Mrs May didn’t call the Conservatives the nasty party.

But if she had done, she wouldn't have been far wrong. 

1
MargieB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to baron:

Looked at you tube and you correct me . She wanted to rebrand the party as the caring party. Et tu Brute Party??

But to be serious, Rory Stewart is going to become an independent , I guess, on his road to his new political thought. What is starkly left behind is unadulterated capitalism in a very seriously dysfunctional world. I think that is ultimately doomed political thought.

And the dooming is not just if Boris prevails,- if he does prevail, there will be consequences of Scottish independence so the current conservative politics will only apply to certain parts of the UK. It is a "minnowing" effect ultimately,  if not completely doomed.

Personally I think it puts Scotland between a rock and a hard place but we will be forced into a choice.

Post edited at 15:36
baron 11 Jun 2019
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

> But if she had done, she wouldn't have been far wrong. 

Possibly, but millions of people still vote for them.

MargieB 11 Jun 2019
In reply to baron:

They should have their proportionate representation. I suppose I share with Corbyn the view that con crisis equals opportunity for change, but in my view it should be constitutional as well as domestic policy and 2nd referendum.


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