UKH

Rather depressing, but rings true and resonates with a lot I have been thinking:

https://www.elder.org/the-elder/an-interview-with-robert-dingwall/#

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

An interesting read, but not depressing. Realistic. 
unless reality is depressing!  

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Some well thought out points in there. I particularly like the "hospital PPE, 15 minutes contact, elderly scared to death if someone walks by them" section. A clear example of the government message being muddied, either through their own lack of clarification or the media misrepresenting the facts to get a pithy tagline, and causing more problems and heartache for people.

Can't say I found it depressing, if anything I took hope from it.

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Interesting article. Has it changed your views on anything?

In reply to neilh:

No; what I found depressing was how much upheaval and stress is being caused by 'rules' like 2m social distancing which are not justified by the science. I have a bad feeling that the biggest upheaval since WW II has been exacerbated out of all proportion my ministerial incompetence, knee jerk reactions and refusal to acknowledge mistakes or misunderstandings. 

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

I don't agree with everything he says.  There is scientific reasoning behind the 2m rule.  There were good reasons to close schools.   

I do agree that it is good to avoid people being isolated and that there is confusion around the 2m rule.  

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

I don't think the situation has been exaggerated.  If we hadn't done what we did the death rates would have been far higher.  

In reply to marsbar:

Well, that's your take; I'm not so sure. He's a sociologist, which is easy to mock but just sometimes they are incredibly good at showing that what appears to be self evident  'common sense' is anything but.

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

You mean the govt missed out on factoring in the growth of precarious employment and also social media in their planning. 
 

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Without intervention, what would have stopped those daily death tolls in the high hundreds from growing and continuing? Other than everyone at risk having died or the disease fading away through herd immunity (debatable effecacy anyway given immune response seems to fade fast in all but the sickest), a process which looks like it could have taken a year or three and maybe a million lives, many more disabled to an as yet unknown degree, plus those dying as a result of normal healthcare being genuinely unavailable. Even in our current restricted state with major sectors still all but closed infections are growing again.

jk

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:It's an interesting article and I don't agree with everything in it.  I find it interesting he repeatedly refers to common sense , and that it should be employed more , but if one thing is evident it is that you can't actually trust a lot of people to use common sense, and opinions on what's common sense vary a lot.

That's why you can't rely on nuanced answers, you need to apply some simple rules.  That's where the 2 metre rule came from - there may not be a hard scientific answer, but you need to stick a number on things.

Interesting that he thinks the UK is trying to achieve herd immunity, but it's an old article and that's changed.  Also I'm not sure that precarious employment is the only recent for the large impact, but also the shift towards 'services' in that employment profile.  Many of these services (shops, entertainment, especially hospital, travel,restaurants) are extremely susceptible to this, or other economic blips.  

His lack of perception that the UK might learn from other countries is confounding. Obviously he is right and every other country wrong

In reply to marsbar:

 

Would you say that the confusion is caused by sensationalist media, high profile celebrities and people on social media?

I remember lots of people trying to cause confusion over 30mins, 1hour or more of exercise being ‘allowed’. 
 

If there’s anything this piece highlights it’s the damage that’s done by normal people trying to enforce rules on other normal people when neither have actually made any effort to understand what or why the rules have been put in place. 

In reply to wbo2:

And yet he is right in so far as we could be living with this for a long time. So what he is saying in that respect is bang on correct. 

In reply to jkarran:

Why did death rates and infections decline in sweden at the same rate (or quicker) than the UK, Spain, Italy etc.. despite not closing schools, pubs and restaurants etc., they only altered how they operated? They are still pretty much operating the same today as mid April as the measures are sustainable long term. 

Perhaps some activities have very little impact, say schools and restaurants, but crowded nightclubs, bars, public transport, and certain other jobs have a huge impact on transmission?

In reply to marsbar:

It's the one-metre rule that I find absurd, frankly, having seen the various scientific videos about the way the different sizes of droplets spread. Most sensible folks in my town are giving everyone at least 2m berth (some tw*ts are simply ignoring everything and anything). It's all very undesirable, but I just can't see what else we can do but play very safe. This Covid thing is so nasty the way it can be transmitted by asymptomatic people (even children, whatever our stupid government and PM might say). It strikes me that the stricter we are with ourselves now, when there are signs of a renewed spike coming, the sooner we'll get out of this horrible, anti-social situation.

In reply to summo:

I'm sure there was someone on here who lives in Sweden who was saying that though the government didn't react the people did and started their own social distancing. 

If that's correct it's the polar opposite to here where the people spent their time looking for loop holes to justify cracking on as normal. 

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Where have you heard this, perhaps you could provide a source as I have only heard the opposite and not from politicians but scientists.

Al

In reply to Gaston Rubberpants:

There are many studies showing that this is a very complex subject that's far from fully understood yet. It's clear that children don't suffer nearly so badly as adults from Covid, yet it's not clear that they are less prone to spreading it.  One of dozens:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-sugge...

In reply to Dax H:

I also think Sweden did in fact close schools for older children and colleges.  

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

I expect we will find out in the middle of September.  

In reply to marsbar: yes, and as already well stated they are generally enforcing their own social distancing.   Also they generally have a lower pop. density.

Rob - what would your alternatives be  - limited normal, but no ventilators for the over 65's?  Seems the memories of how New York was affected are soon forgotten....

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

'It strikes me that the stricter we are with ourselves now, when there are signs of a renewed spike coming, the sooner we'll get out of this horrible, anti-social situation.'

I would agree - I'm just not convinced that a lot of the measures that are being imposed are actually having any positive effect, or if they are they are so marginal they are - or will be - more than offset by the devastation to the economy and the social disruption. 

In reply to wbo2:

Do ventilators help? I rather got the impression that we have better treatment protocols now, which is one of the reasons why death rates are coming down. Slightly difficult to advertise that, if that is the case though...

In reply to marsbar:

Over 16s went virtual and university. Although many schools between 16 and 19 are more like live in apprentice colleges, lots of these just introduced some distancing, as a large proportion of courses are hands on practical instruction. 

Most schools go back this week, the rest next week. Zero debate about closures. On the other hand folk have been told to work from home where possible until next year. 

In reply to Rob Exile Ward: Maybe you'll find this interesting https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-faile...

In reply to wbo2:

Thanks, yes I did. There's just so much stuff to read...

In reply to wbo2:

And there have been similar articles in respectable papers about the French and Dutch response being a similar debacle if you read around papers like Le Monde  

The last  10 years have not been good for governance in slot of Western European countries since the G FC. 

In reply to neilh:

Yes, that seems a curious fact - whenever I think we were the most incompetent and inept, it seems that quite a lot of other countries world wide had similar issues.

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Covid tests everything to destruction from a governance aspect. As long as UK and other Govts learn the lessons and address them as best they can within economic resources then that is more valuable experience.

Talking of which I see they are adjusting the Track and Trace system..about time.

I just wish the USA would get a grip of things.

In reply to neilh:

Jared Diamond latest book 'Upheaval' deals with the ways in which different countries have coped with crises and the aftermaths of crises. The book predates Covid, but I was reading it in May, and much of the discussion seemed relevant. A couple of the core arguments presented related to the benefits of a) the ability to learn from one's own mistakes and b) the ability to learn from the experiences of other countries. At the time I was reading it, there was very little evidence that our own government was doing a good job of learning any lessons, from anyone. I'm not convinced there is much improvement. However, as you say, other countries do not seem to have fared much better. 

As for the USA ...

In reply to neilh:

Well you know that ain't going to happen (at  a Federal level) .  But there it's a deliberate act of policy to ignore inconvenient facts.  

In reply to Harry Jarvis:

Although I did not vote for them I would suggest that the way testing has evolved suggests lessons have been learnt. My personal experience of having tests done would also suggest this. 
 

The switch to more localised tracing announced in recent days also suggests lessons have been learnt. 

In reply to neilh:

That's a fair point. Notable in that more decision making and more responsibility is being devolved locally, and way from central governments, which is allowing more nimble responses.

In reply to Harry Jarvis:

Perversely it was what To y Blair suggested his big lesson was , try not to centralise and get things done locally. But every govt wastes time learning these lessons. 

In reply to Harry Jarvis:

Jarred Diamond's most notable real-time pandemic commentary - along these lines:

coronavirus poses no existentiel threat to the human race; environmental probs do

a lot of wasted energy, time and discarded masks

In reply to Dax H:

The two situations are not comparable. There is a deep change in psychology for handling a situation when authoritative pressure is eased off - when people are instructed 'it's up to you - there is danger at hand - go figure' , rather than 'you are locked down - anyone who moves get's nicked'

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

You know you’re getting old when you send off you’re cv and get a Parker pen just for applying.

In reply to john spence:

You know you are old when you get repetitive strain injury from scrolling down to your DOB.

Al

In reply to Gaston Rubberpants:

I get the impression that given modern lifespans, 'old' might need to be reframed as being aged 100 or 110, rather than in one's 70's circa. 

I wouldn't know if this applies more to people in their 30's or middle age, or people who are currently in their 70's.

In reply to LeeWood:

The human race would survive covid alone. For those of us that don't live land to mouth, doing nothing allowing it to rip through society destroying institutions and economic capability (and I do mean destroy, not damage as the countermeasures have) could easily and rapidly have lead to complete social collapse, famine and resource conflict. We're never really more than a few days away from carnage if the food machine stops.

If you say so.

jk

In reply to jkarran:

This doesn't appear to have happened in Sweden?