/ General Election

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The New NickB 05 Sep 2019

I always like to try and get a feel for dynamics of elections and the upcoming one, whether in in October or November is particularly interesting if a little scary.

The Tories suffering a complete meltdown as a party but still benefiting from a Boris bounce. Averaging low to mid 30s in the polls. Labour in the mid 20s with a lack of confidence in the leader, Lib Dems riding high in the high teens. Then will have the Brexit Party, will they be tactical to aid the right of the Tory Party, or will they try and inflict maximum damage. I can't see the Brexit Party winning many seats, but influencing quite a few. I'm assuming an SNP landslide in Scotland.

What will happen over the next few months, will the polls change as much as they did in 2017.

My constituency of Heywood & Middleton was firmly Labour in 2017, although it was leave in 2016 and historically it has been a UKIP target seat, getting closest in a 2014 by-election. So the Brexit Party probably see it as a target. They have already selected their candidate, who I know.

I think it will remain Labour, although I would love to see some local polling, maybe Michael Ashcroft will be so good.

What about where you live?

In reply to The New NickB:

Johnson is my MP. His majority isn’t unassailable - 3,000 or so, and naturally dying off all the time. The local Labour Party have been working like dogs and have a fine candidate, and if only the LibDems would stand aside I think we’d have him - as it is, not impossible, but a big long shot.

jcm

5
MG 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Lab con marginal. Currently lab so will probably stay that way. Lib dems no where. 

What happens in the recently deselected tory seats will be interesting. Can't see it going well for the Tories. Nor in Libdem/tory marginals. 

Results: Lib dems Lab alliance? Maybe SNP alliance with promise of indyref2? 

Gordon Stainforth 05 Sep 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

I'm a Lib Dem, but I'm fully prepared to vote Labour tactically to get rid of our appalling far right Conservative MP (member of ERG).

4
Lusk 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Manchester Withington, it would take serious major league apathy by the Labour voters for Jeff not to get re-elected!

edit: I'm one of many with almost a worthless vote.

Post edited at 20:03
The New NickB 05 Sep 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Do you think you might succeed.

stevieb 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Rushcliffe - Ken Clarke, I'm not expecting him to stand again. I’ve never voted for him but I’ve absolutely loved his recent take downs of Boris. 

Dont know who to vote for. Will almost definitely be held by the Cons, but there were an awful lot of personal votes for Ken. 

pasbury 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Forest of Dean constituency here. It used to be Labour and is now represented by Mark Harper (Con). Classic working class constituency with more privileged areas around the margins. Voted 40% for the Brexit party at the EU elections. To me it’s a fine example of a gaslit electorate.

I suspect that it will return Mr Harper again with a reduced majority and significantly fewer votes.

2017:

CON  Mark Harper   Votes.  28,096.  Net percentage change +7.4

LAB.  Shaun Stammers.  Votes.  18,594.  Net percentage change.  +11.

LD.  Janet Ellard.  Votes.   2,029.  Net percentage change -1.4

GRN.   JJames Greenwood   Votes.   1,241.  Net percentage change -3.

UKIP.   Ernie Warrender.   Votes.  1,237.  Net percentage change -15.4

in 2019 the Brexit party will go hard here, there’s a lot of retirees and people who really like the idea of freehold property🙂.

My mystic meg;

Con 18000

Brexit 10000

Libdem 8000

Lab 17000

Green 4000

Ukip Arse all

Flinticus 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Glasgow. Will go SNP. I'll vote Green if possible.

If not, LD but not upset at SNP win anyway.

Eric9Points 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

My constituency in Edinburgh is the only one predicted to stay Labour in Scotland. The party's mealy mouthed position on Brexit has cost them dearly.

I'm a little more optimistic than that though. If Labour can give the tories a right good kicking over the next few weeks they may redeem themselves in the eyes of at least some of the electorate.

1
tjdodd 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Sheffield hallam has effectively had no mp for months. I find it really strange there are no rules to cover absent MPs to ensure constituency issues are dealt with. As far as I know the labour party has done nothing to support the constituency. At the same time the lib dem candidate has been working and campaigning really hard. So a landslide for lib dem and massive turnaround from nick clegg losing.

George Ormerod 05 Sep 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

I grew up in Hillingdon and wish I was still registered there for the chance to get Boris booted out.  Best of luck.

1
TobyA 05 Sep 2019
In reply to tjdodd:

Hallam is a total clusterf**k with both the MP and his chief of staff (who famously took control of the MPs Twitter and called him all sorts of abusive names (quite probably deservedly so)) having recently been arrested by South Yorkshire's finest. If people are interested, Producer Dino of Brexitcast fame has been doing his own podcast for the BBC that has done one longer and one short episode on the O'Mara debacle. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0781wkb/episodes/downloads

As I remember Labour have a candidate ready now to contest Hallam, and other Sheff Labour MPs have been asked to help by Hallam constituents but legally its really difficult for them to do so - hence why O'Mara's behaviour is so outrageous. It says a lot about the dangers of letting a load of Corbynistas who owe their very short allegiances to Momentum more than to the Labour Party to pick candidates.

1
TobyA 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

I moved from a safe Labour Sheffield seat, into a Derbyshire marginal that the Conservatives took from Labour in 2017. I don't really have any insight into the local issues although I heard one of things that didn't help Natascha Engels who lost in 2017 was her ambivalence over fracking that could happen in the constituency. The Tory candidate, now MP, came out strongly against it. He won by 2,800 votes so it was relatively close - CON and LAB accounted for about 95% of the vote between them, so LD are players here.

1
Jon Stewart 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

South Lakes (Westmorland and Lonsdale) - Tim Farron very nearly lost in 2017. Gotta be pretty safe for the Lib Dems this time.

Jon Stewart 05 Sep 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

> Johnson is my MP. His majority isn’t unassailable - 3,000 or so, and naturally dying off all the time. The local Labour Party have been working like dogs and have a fine candidate, and if only the LibDems would stand aside I think we’d have him - as it is, not impossible, but a big long shot.

For god's sake! Surely in these circs the right thing to do is blindingly obvious.

3
Gordon Stainforth 05 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

> Do you think you might succeed.

I just don't know. I think she's got a rather huge majority, but because she's an extremist (which, sadly, many in her constituency don't seem to realise) I think a lot of the moderate Conservative vote could drain away. LibDems have traditionally always been weak here: it's basically Con v Lab. 

Wicamoi 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Stirling: it was the seat of the Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland, Michael Forsyth, from 1983 till 1997 when Anne McGuire took over for Labour. After she stood down in 2015, Steven Paterson won it for the SNP, but Stephen Kerr narrowly won it for the Conservatives in 2017. I would regard it as little short of a miracle if the SNP don't reclaim it in the forthcoming election.

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

My guess is the Tories will get wiped out in Scotland.  Maybe they'll manage to hold on to a couple but there'll be far fewer of them.  They are vulnerable because they've gone well beyond the views of their constituents in following Boris and the Brexiteers.

SNP are hinting they will stand on holding indyref2.  That probably means it will be the LibDems rather than the SNP picking up most of the seats the Tories lose.  

Rob Exile Ward 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

The elephant in the room is Corbyn. If Starmer, Benn or Cooper (there may be other candidates) were leader, then the LP would clean up.

1
MonkeyPuzzle 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Bristol West. So Labour I might go climbing instead.

Robert Durran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> My guess is the Tories will get wiped out in Scotland. 

I am in a narrowly held Tory constituency, so will be very pleased to vote tactically for the SNP to get rid of Johnson.

> SNP are hinting they will stand on  holding indyref2.  

That is a shame - it means it will be harder for me to persuade more staunchly unionist friends to vote tactically for them.

MargieB 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Too right, I won't be voting SNP at this juncture.Disappointed!!!!!

So what here. Lib dem. Did well before.SNP do well here. Hard to say. I'll guess Lib dem.

I personally,normally vote Green and got Green MSP here, So constituency not default SNP.

Oh Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey by the way

Should be having a 2nd referendum before GE, that's why I'm disappointed in SNP play the record approach not see the need. It is possible with that Parliamentary majority to legislate on a 2nd referendum and SNP not going for it. Swinson raised the issue of a  referendum  yesterday.

Post edited at 08:11
Moley 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Plaid Cymru here, which is great as I can use my vote in a positive way without voting for any of the other numpties. I have the perfect get-out, whichever of the major party wins it wasn't my fault.

Siward 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

I am one of the disenfranchised in a safe Tory seat. At the last election our MP polled 29,513 votes vs 17,897 for Labour and the other parties barely registering.

It has ever been thus here. Of course I vote, but to no avail

Edit: I think it's the same MP as Gordon's above. Unlike him, I just cannot see her being ousted.

Post edited at 08:13
Siward 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Jon Stewart:

> For god's sake! Surely in these circs the right thing to do is blindingly obvious.


Would that be for Corbyn to step down in favour of someone more palatable to the electorate?

In reply to The New NickB:

Our favourite climbing destination, The Derbyshire Dales. It’s been Conservative for the last 70 years, current encumbent is Patrick McGloughlin Conservative Party Chairman. I’m not thinking that it’s going to swing to Labour, although the Greens and LD did better last time.

Cú Chullain 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

I have Vince Cable as my MP and he is currently sitting on a nearly 10,000 majority. Labour are a distance third. Will be voting Lib Dems

stevieb 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Does anyone have a clue what’s going to happen in Northern Ireland? 

It seems that the DUP gave up economic benefits for NI based on their ‘principles’ and Sinn Fein automatically disenfranchise their own voters, and the NI assembly hasn’t sat for years. 

But will this make any difference? Do any other parties have a chance? 

galpinos 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Manchester Withington, it would take serious major league apathy by the Labour voters for Jeff not to get re-elected!

> edit: I'm one of many with almost a worthless vote.

Manchester Withington too. I can't see anyone making inroads into the Lab vote. The local Lib Dems "attack" campaigning and negative propaganda leaflets are pretty poor and Jeff has 70 odd % of the vote at the moment.

Richard J 06 Sep 2019
In reply to TobyA:

> Hallam is a total clusterf**k with both the MP and his chief of staff (who famously took control of the MPs Twitter and called him all sorts of abusive names ... As I remember Labour have a candidate ready now to contest Hallam,

A real pity, as in 2015 Labour had a good, local & green-tinged candidate, who only narrowly missed beating Nick Clegg due (I think) to a Conservative -> LibDem tactical vote.  I'd put money on it going back to the LibDems this time.

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> That is a shame - it means it will be harder for me to persuade more staunchly unionist friends to vote tactically for them.

Yeah, I think the SNP would get more MPs if they focused on Brexit rather than Indyref2.  However, I don't think a few more MPs will do them any good if England votes for Brexiteer Tories.   In that case the only thing that will keep Scotland in the EU is Independence.  

Postmanpat 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Brentford and Isleworth. Used to be marginal but Ruth Cadbury (LAb) got a clear win last time. I expect some labour votes to switch to the Lib dems but some Tory remainer/anti-Boris votes to do the same. Lib dems are too far behind to win so I expect a Labour win with reduced majority.

Sir Chasm 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> In that case the only thing that will keep Scotland in the EU is Independence. 

Scotland can't be kept in the eu because Scotland isn't an eu member. I'm surprised no one has pointed this out to you before.

2
jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

> Johnson is my MP. His majority isn’t unassailable - 3,000 or so, and naturally dying off all the time. The local Labour Party have been working like dogs and have a fine candidate, and if only the LibDems would stand aside I think we’d have him - as it is, not impossible, but a big long shot.

I wonder if he won't take a safer seat from one of the recently deposed, some huge majorities available there.

It's pretty clear Labour and the LibDems are going to cannibalise each other in England without a well organised and funded pro-EU third-party providing an additional layer of campaigning for tactical voting on a seat by seat basis.

jk

Dave Garnett 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

My MP is Karen Bradley with a majority of about 10,000.  It used to be a Labour seat until some boundary changes in 2010.  Despite her woeful performance as NI Secretary, the only way I can see her losing is if there's a Brexit Party/ UKIP resurgence that splits the Conservative vote.

Despite being instinctively Lib Dem, I guess the sensible thing for me to do is vote Labour and hope the Brexit party does well!  

Edit to correct my amnesia about the Brexit Party!

Post edited at 10:22
jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

York inner is currently a safe looking Labour seat with a very good MP I'd be happy to keep.

I'll see how the candidates and campaigns look then vote for her if she's looking threatened. If she's looking safe it'll be probably be Green to keep nudging their economic, environmental and electoral reform ideas up the agenda.

edit: York outer is more interesting, it's a pretty straight Con-Lab fight though the remaining Green & LibDem vote combined could tip the balance. Definitely a viable target for an anti brexit tactical voting campaign.

jk

Post edited at 10:52
fred99 06 Sep 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> Bristol West. So Labour I might go climbing instead.


No, go climbing AFTER voting.

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Scotland can't be kept in the eu because Scotland isn't an eu member. I'm surprised no one has pointed this out to you before.

I've got zero interest in what unionists and brexiteers claim the EU will do.   The EU will follow its own interests and it has nothing to gain from kicking Scotland out so it will make it easy for Scotland to stay.

Offwidth 06 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I know we have been here before but I'm just not convinced. The Brexit-Tory correlation across England is much higher than the Lib-Dem Labour correlation. The tories will be hammered in Scotland so that is another ~10 seats they need to take elsewhere. I do think across much of the marginal south outside London that Labour will be struggling, due to the Corbyn factor, but so much depends on local candidates...established Labour moderates will still win swing votes. If the election is held after a brexit, Farage will do badly, won't win many seats and conservatives should win, but that also depends on how bad things turn out;  if pre-brexit, I think we will have a grand coalition as the brexit vote will split (and where in any likely deal Corbyn's politics will be neutered and he will I think most likely stand down). Labour currently seem to have no chance of winning a majority.

I'm as ready to tactically vote as anyone and yet I won't hold my nose and vote for a hard left Labour candidate if chosen in my constituency to replace my MP, who in now in Change UK (and for a long time before he moved had to face appalling attacks from entryists, a situation that I regard as unacceptable in a progressive party). As national Labour and Conservative parties attack and even remove whips from good moderate MPs and local tory and Labour parties are becoming increasingly polarised away from most who vote for them, I'm becoming attracted to open public selection processes.

Post edited at 11:14
Oceanrower 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> I've got zero interest in what unionists and brexiteers claim the EU will do.   The EU will follow its own interests and it has nothing to gain from kicking Scotland out so it will make it easy for Scotland to stay.

From Wikipedia:

The EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

See Scotland in that list? Nope, nor me.

Pretty tricky to stay in something you're not in...

1
Ian W 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh: And Sir Chasm;

> I've got zero interest in what unionists and brexiteers claim the EU will do.   The EU will follow its own interests and it has nothing to gain from kicking Scotland out so it will make it easy for Scotland to stay.

Tom, you know we've been through this before; Scotland unfortunately will not remain in the EU because it isn't a member. I agree there is no reason for the EU to not accept Scotland as a future member, once its status as an independent sovereign state has been sorted (and incidentally, good luck with that if Brexit happens; I live less than 90 mins from the border and would much prefer to be in the EU than out.....), but until Scotland is independent, it will leave the EU with the United Kingdom, which it is a part of.

Allowing Scotland to "stay" a member is simply not possible; membership is only possible  on achieving, or committing to achieve, certain conditions and being accepted unanimously by current members. 

Sir Chasm 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> I've got zero interest in what unionists and brexiteers claim the EU will do.   The EU will follow its own interests and it has nothing to gain from kicking Scotland out so it will make it easy for Scotland to stay.

Whether you're unionist, brexiteer, communist or librarian, Scotland still isn't a member of the eu, so it can't remain a member. How simple joining would/will bd is another question.

1
jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> ...if pre-brexit, I think we will have a grand coalition as the brexit vote will split (and where in any likely deal Corbyn's politics will be neutered and he will I think most likely stand down). Labour currently seem to have no chance of winning a majority.

I don't see Corbyn going for a formal coalition deal with SNP + LD, I'm not sure they'd want to either. They'll provide limited backing to stop brexit then we're back to the polls again within a year or two. Hopefully with electoral reform on the agenda but events will no doubt overtake us before we get there.

> As national Labour and Conservative parties attack and even remove whips from good moderate MPs and local tory and Labour parties are becoming increasingly polarised away from most who vote for them, I'm becoming attracted to open public selection processes.

Genuine question, how do you stop an open to all candidate selection process entrenching the incumbent MP as the local majority select weak/flawed opposition candidates? Surely it risks making our gerrymandered safe seat problem worse and it tends to select against not for good candidates. The problem, as I see it anyway is candidates and voters with a variety of views are forced to make often binary choices, if they have any real choice at all, probably half can't ever hope to have their voice heard.

jk

jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> I've got zero interest in what unionists and brexiteers claim the EU will do.   The EU will follow its own interests and it has nothing to gain from kicking Scotland out so it will make it easy for Scotland to stay.

Scotland can't 'stay' in the EU, it isn't an independent country, if the UK leaves the EU, Scotland does. You're right that under those circumstances Scotland rejoining probably wouldn't meet much opposition assuming the split with rUK occurs peacefully which isn't a given.

If Scotland leaves the UK before the UK leaves the EU then the Spanish will fight tooth and nail to prevent the new entity 'Scotland' joining the EU.

jk

Harry Jarvis 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Ochil and South Perthshire has in recent years has a range of representation. We currently have a young Tory pup Luke  Graham, who seems eager enough but hasn't been in position long enough to make much of an impression. He does have the natural disadvantage of being a Tory in Scotland. 

Before him, we had serial party-swapper Salmond fangirl Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh for the SNP, recently fined by the Law Society for misconduct and co-owner of a company which has made programmes which have found a home on Kremlin mouthpiece RT. 

And before that we had Gordon Banks (not that one) for Labour, who was at least vaguely competent. 

So, next time round, given the received wisdom that the Tories will be heavily punished for being so utterly useless and having an idiot for a PM, it's likely that the seat will go to the SNP. Disappointingly, the LibDems have never had much of a showing. 

Sir Chasm 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

> What about where you live?

Skipton and Ripon, Tory since the time of the dinosaurs, held by Julian Smith with a 20,000 majority in 2017 . Lib dems stood down for the greens in 17 so I'll have to wait and see next time.

Robert Durran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to fred99:

> No, go climbing AFTER voting.

Or get a postal vote.

climbingpixie 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

I'm in Shipley, currently a pretty safe seat for super Brexity Tory Philip Davies. Has been Tory since 2005. He managed to improve his majority from 500 to 10000 between 2005 and 2010 and he's actually polled 50%+ in the last two so he's clearly popular locally. So I'll probably go with my conscience and just vote Green as it's unlikely that anyone else has a chance. I'd be open to changing this to vote Labour if a Brexit Party MP stood in the area as that might lead to a split vote on the right. 

Arms Cliff 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Skipton and Ripon, Tory since the time of the dinosaurs, held by Julian Smith with a 20,000 majority in 2017 . Lib dems stood down for the greens in 17 so I'll have to wait and see next time.

Also my constituency, Chief Whip for May (frying pan), NI Secretary for Johnson (fire). I’d half like him to keep his job as it really can’t be that much fun! 

Robert Durran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Yeah, I think the SNP would get more MPs if they focused on Brexit rather than Indyref2.  However, I don't think a few more MPs will do them any good if England votes for Brexiteer Tories.   

Not all of England will vote for Bexiteer tories. The ability of the SNP to attract tactical votes against the Tories might just make the difference to avoid the catastrophe of a Tory majority.

The SNP should be fighting this election on the Brexit issue and saving independence for a second referendum.

Robert Durran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to MargieB:

> Too right, I won't be voting SNP at this juncture.Disappointed!!!!!

> Should be having a 2nd referendum before GE.

I strongly disagree. A second referendum should only take place once Brexit is settled so that we know what we are voting to leave. 

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Whether you're unionist, brexiteer, communist or librarian, Scotland still isn't a member of the eu, so it can't remain a member. How simple joining would/will bd is another question.

Yawn.   Clearly the territory of Scotland is currently part of the territory of the EU and the population of Scotland are currently EU citizens.   Scotland doesn't want to leave, the EU doesn't want to shrink its territory or chuck out its citizens.   When both sides want the same thing there's not a problem, the mechanism is a minor detail.

2
The New NickB 06 Sep 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

It’s amazing isn’t it, like his mate Chope, he appears to have absolutely no redeeming features, yet can get 50+ % of the vote.

jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> When both sides want the same thing there's not a problem, the mechanism is a minor detail.

It *really* isn't!

I think if we gain anything from the brexit disaster it's a priceless lesson on value of expectation management when pursuing complex and frankly painful political goals which inevitably demand compromise. In a democracy you have to take the public with you, gulling them into believing it'll all go smoothly so as to get the process started, that it's simple and cheap... that's how we end up with *this* [looking at the bin fire that passes for news these days]!

jk

Post edited at 14:30
wercat 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Our MP is Rory.  If he stands I'll probably vote for him as he has finally proved a better political man than he sometimes appeared previously, despite his impressive other credentials.

I have not voted for him previously as I thought him too much a good Conservative (as in Good German).  It does depend on his new stance though.

Post edited at 14:45
Sir Chasm 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Fify

Yawn.   Clearly the territory of Scotland is currently part of the UK which is a member of the EU and the population of Scotland are currently EU citizens.   Scotland doesn't want to leave the EU but unfortunately if the UK leaves the EU before Scotland leaves the UK then Scotland leaves the EU, the EU doesn't want to shrink its territory or chuck out its citizens but it doesn't have much choice here.   Even if both sides want the same thing there's a massive problem, the mechanism is not a minor detail.

1
neilh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to wercat:

Warrington South which is a marginal seat as regualry flips sides. Currently Labour with 2,000 majority. I will be voting Lib unless JC is dumped by Labour and they start afresh. Something close to 65% voted leave.

Expecting a right ding dong for my vote.

Offwidth 06 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I can't see Corbyn being happy either but if Labour want to form a government they will almost certainly have to form a coalition, especially so if the tories have more seats than them and would be the natural choice to first try to form a minority government. I think the party will choose power over their leader. Brown was dumped unceremoniously after all.

I can see any worse gerrymandering if the local party members who wish to stand for their party are selected by the populace of the constituency. Currently increasing numbers of extremists in both main parties are being parachuted into safe seats.

Dave Garnett 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> When both sides want the same thing there's not a problem, the mechanism is a minor detail.

I agree with jk.  The EU is perforce an essentially rules-driven organisation.  The assumption than everything is negotiable is just wrong.  If it were otherwise the whole thing would grind to a halt amid endless arguing about everything.  In an organisation of so many members, it's very difficult to make exceptions.  

Maybe it also comes from the mindset of Roman law as opposed to the more flexible judge-based common law system we are used to, but this assumption that, given some basic empathy, inconvenient basic pillars of principle can be ignored is one of the fundamental errors made by May, Davis, Raab et al in the Brexit negotiations (or else they understand it but pretend not to so they can paint the Commission as being difficult).

On the occasions where circumstances force an uncomfortable level of interpretative and linguistic ingenuity the result is the famous Euro-fudge that rarely satisfies anyone.  

jkarran 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> I can't see Corbyn being happy either but if Labour want to form a government they will almost certainly have to form a coalition, especially so if the tories have more seats than them and would be the natural choice to first try to form a minority government. I think the party will choose power over their leader. Brown was dumped unceremoniously after all.

I just can't see them being able to go into formal coalition with so much dividing them. I mean what do they do about Indyref2 if it becomes a precondition of SNP coalition support or a PR referendum if it's a precondition of LibDem support, one referendum to extinguish the brexit flames then another to douse the embers in petrol again or lock them out of majority power for ever more?

I can see a Labour minority being able to pass a very limited Queen's speech on its brexit policy, a modest spending plan and little else. Long A50 extension, new 'red lines', new 'deal', ratification referendum then back to the polls in 2021 to decide who negotiates our new independent future or starts mending our shattered society.

> I can see any worse gerrymandering if the local party members who wish to stand for their party are selected by the populace of the constituency. Currently increasing numbers of extremists in both main parties are being parachuted into safe seats.

Why would a safe Labour seat, for example, not pick the worst Labour candidate over the best? You're letting the winner pick their next battle. I'm not dead against the idea if it works in practice because of voter apathy or basic human decency or something else I'm not seeing but it seems conceptually flawed to me.

jk

Ian W 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Bishop Auckland.

Astoundingly its a labour marginal - maj 503 in 2017. Weak ish mp in helen Goodman; cons in 2nd place due to countrified area around Barnard Castle.

The local labour mayor (also labour) would wipe the floor with the tories, but cant stand corbyn. Amazingly for a rural constituency, the libdems got less than 1200 votes last time out. Given recent events, i would expect an increased labour majority as the tory vote will be split badly if brexit party field a candidate.

Offwidth 06 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

You're stuck in two party thinking on the first point and in my view that could only work for an October election expecting another in a month or so once no deal is off the table. Even in that case a coalition alternative would be way more likely to receive majority public support and meet MP voting needs. The 21 no longer tory rebels, Change UK, Independants and many others in the Liberals and the SNP won't back a Corrbyn minority government.

On the second issue, something like STV PR could be used.... only local party members can stand for their own party and all registered constituency voters can vote for preferences on all candidates for their MP and lowest vote candidates are eliminated leaving the top candidate in each party going through to the FPTP ballot. STV greatly favours positive first preference votes over negative tactical votes below this due to the transfer weightings and if the local party candidate is in a genuine massive majority in their local party there will likely normally only be one candidate. Local constituency parties can express preferences and campaign for them but will need to convince constituencies in the face of public scrutiny for their candidates who live in the constituency (instead of the current internal arrangements with a small politicised minority of party members selecting candidates, these days who are increasingly likely to be extreme party apparatchiks with no constituency connection).

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> It *really* isn't!

> I think if we gain anything from the brexit disaster it's a priceless lesson on value of expectation management

The situation is totally different from Brexit.

It's like a couple having had a joint membership of a club for 40 years and asking to stay in under your own name and pay your own subs after a divorce.   It's not a big deal because everyone's interests are aligned and it would be amazing if people got legalistic and turned it into one.

Brexit is like asking to have all the privileges of club membership without paying the same subs as everyone else.   The interests are not aligned and it isn't at all surprising when you get told to f*ck off.

jimtitt 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Scotland has first to leave the UK and become an independent country before they can apply to join the EU, that has been made quite clear at the highest levels of the EU.

And welcome to the Eurozone!

Jon Stewart 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Siward:

> Would that be for Corbyn to step down in favour of someone more palatable to the electorate?

Yes it would. But failing that, if we're going to have a Brexit election, then opposition parties should work together in electoral pacts in order to give voters the choice between some Farage/Johnson Brexit f*ckwit party and a second ref/remain alliance.

tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to jimtitt:

> Scotland has first to leave the UK and become an independent country before they can apply to join the EU, that has been made quite clear at the highest levels of the EU.

They also said 'there's no queue' and implied Scotland would get in without delay because it already met the criteria.

> And welcome to the Eurozone!

Maybe.  I hope so.

2
tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> SNP are hinting they will stand on holding indyref2.  That probably means it will be the LibDems rather than the SNP picking up most of the seats the Tories lose.  

Looks like I was wrong about the LibDems.  There's apparently a new YouGov poll of the constituencies currently held by the Tories in Scotland and it predicts ALL of them will go to the SNP. 

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1170079258699599873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Lusk 06 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

You (and the SNP) seem to think that going independent from the UK will be easier than a fried egg slipping off the most non stick frying pan ever invented.
Going on the shitfest that is the UK trying to disentangle itself from the EU after only 40 years, how, in your opinion, are you going to get easy separation (from UK) after 300+ years of unification?

1
Andy Hardy 06 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

My MP is Tory lobby fodder par excellence Mary Robinson. Funnily enough I had a telephone survey from the cons today - if they take any notice of these things they'll be ditching Alexander de PifflePaffle.

The seat has been LD in the past, hopefully Mrs Robinson will get her P45 soon

pasbury 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Dave Garnett:

That might well be my tactic. However I’m in the mood to campaign too and would need some assurance from the Labour Party that I wasn’t bullshitting about their Brexit policy in order to do this.

All this only because the Lib Dem’s don’t stand a chance in my constituency.

1
tom_in_edinburgh 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> You (and the SNP) seem to think that going independent from the UK will be easier than a fried egg slipping off the most non stick frying pan ever invented.

No, I think it would have been relatively easy if rUK had stayed in the EU.  If the rUK leaves the EU and goes full Boris it will be disruptive but there is also a far more compelling reason to leave.

> Going on the shitfest that is the UK trying to disentangle itself from the EU after only 40 years, how, in your opinion, are you going to get easy separation (from UK) after 300+ years of unification?

I don't think it scales like that.   By the time you get to 40 years things are basically as entangled as they are going to get, 300 years isn't that much harder to disentangle than 40.

I agree that the UK is a shitfest and it is quite likely to get worse.  That's an excellent reason to disentangle even if it is difficult in the short term.   The difference with Brexit is there isn't any compelling reason to leave the EU.  It's self inflicted pain for no gain.   There are many compelling reasons for Scotland to leave the UK, the most significant one is the way that all the economic and political power is centralised in London and forcing talented people to leave Scotland to make a career.

I was just reading that the HS2 project is now projected to cost £88 billion and be 7 years late.  HS2 goes nowhere near Scotland but the UK government has decided to spend £7.5Bn 'on Scotland's behalf' because in its opinion it benefits Scotland to have transport infrastructure which results in more business moving to London.    The largest road project in Scotland is dualling the A9 between Perth and Inverness - total cost £2 Billion.  The new Sick Kids Hospital in Edinburgh - £150 million.   The Queensferry Crossing Bridge - £600 million.   The UK is 'on our behalf' spending more for a project in England than all the big infrastructure projects in Scotland put together.

The other side of it is that the £7.5Bn is getting spent buying property in England for the rail line - making English landowners rich - and buying legal, banking and construction services in England and boosting the English economy.    The people and companies getting paid from the HS2 money then pay taxes which in the GERS numbers boost the tax take coming from England.  If that money was spent on infrastructure in Scotland the jobs and the tax take would be getting booked to Scotland. 

Then we get told Scotland has a huge deficit and can't afford the stuff we actually want like education or decent treatment for old people.   Nobody knows what Scotland's deficit is until we have our own government and cancel all the crap the UK government is buying on our behalf.

7
pasbury 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Lusk:

It’ll be a soft exit. They are much easier you know.

pasbury 06 Sep 2019
In reply to Lusk:

Ask Latvians, ask Estonians, ask Lithuanians.

It happens.

1
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

>    The largest road project in Scotland is dualling the A9 between Perth and Inverness - total cost £2 Billion. 

Why not rejig those figures into £ per capita? 

The m74 is a great road and was built 20 plus years ago? 

Meanwhile Yorkshire and the NE which have a population greater than all of Scotland, are just seeing the final sections of a1 dual carriageway finally turned into a motorway. It will still be rammed as it's too small for the number of people it serves. There are other routes such as the a66 which have only been dualled in the last decade and there are still single lane sections. 

How can you complain about being under funded, when because of the Barnet formula Scotland enjoys the benefits of far greater spending per capita than all of England (other than London projects). 

1
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Ask Latvians, ask Estonians, ask Lithuanians.

> It happens.

Latvia started the process oct1995, joined 2004. 

Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to summo:

Remind me how much the English tax coffers benefitted from Scottish oil and gas since the 1970s again ?

My Glasgow constituency has an SNP MP with a 2,000 majority over Labour.The Libs and cons are an irrelevance here. 

Post edited at 07:43
3
Robert Durran 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> Remind me how much the English tax coffers benefitted from Scottish oil and gas since the 1970s again ?

Don't you mean how much the British tax coffers benefitted from British oil and gas? 

jimtitt 07 Sep 2019
In reply to summo:

> Latvia started the process oct1995, joined 2004. 


I think he meant independence which the three countries achieved after a couple of years war and tens of thousands of deaths (aided by the UK amongst others).

1
Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

No. 

1
Robert Durran 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> No. 

That's odd, because Scotland was not independent in the 70's and neither was there an English government with tax raising powers.

I think perhaps what you mean is that if Scotland had been independent in the 70's then Scotland's oil and gas would have filled Scotland's tax coffers.

Post edited at 08:12
Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Again no.The wealth from Oil and gas produced in Scottish maritime areas from the 1970s onward greatly boosted the tax coffers for all of the UK so under these circumstances its a bit rich for someone to mention the Barnett formula.

Edit: And for Summo to mention roads when we have the ridiculous A82 Loch Lomond Road as a major route is taking the biscuit. 

Post edited at 08:54
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> Remind me how much the English tax coffers benefitted from Scottish oil and gas since the 1970s again ?

And before the 70s ? Or now, as the world moves to green energy? Scotland has had a brief window where oil and gas boomed (ignoring tax breaks, exploration grants etc. which benefited the industry whilst most other industries received nothing). 

Note: oil and gas tax revenue in total is 50% of the tax revenue the city of london alone generates (the actual city district, not London the capital). Yes those evil bankers really are bank rolling things.

Let's be honest Scotland wouldn't be Norway. The mentality isn't the same in any part of the uk, it would have been blown away on grand projects and there would be little or nothing to show for it. 

You'll cite how Scotland's wind projects etc are doing x and y, but they are funded by everyone in the UK from the money added to everyone electric bills. 

summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> Again no.The wealth from Oil and gas produced in Scottish maritime areas from the 1970s onward greatly boosted the tax coffers for all of the UK so under these circumstances its a it rich for someone to mention the Barnett formula. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjP3rjWl77kAhUqyKYKHS_kD84QzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2019%2Fjan%2F25%2Fbritish-taxpayers-bill-tax-relief-oil-gas-companies&psig=AOvVaw1VKSp2oCMAeOHBUPrM8w_y&ust=1567927617040190

It's a guardian article.

Post edited at 08:28
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> Edit: And for Summo to mention roads when we have the ridiculous A82 Loch Lomond Road as a major route is taking the biscuit. 

Are you comparing that road to the A1. That's laughable. 

Post edited at 08:36
Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to summo:

> And before the 70s ? Or now, as the world moves to green energy? Scotland has had a brief window where oil and gas boomed (ignoring tax breaks, exploration grants etc. which benefited the industry whilst most other industries received nothing). 

A brief window of 50 years and what of the time prior to the 1970s? Do we want to go back to 1707 ? 

> Note: oil and gas tax revenue in total is 50% of the tax revenue the city of london alone generates (the actual city district, not London the capital). Yes those evil bankers really are bank rolling things.

Uh. 

> Let's be honest Scotland wouldn't be Norway. The mentality isn't the same in any part of the uk, it would have been blown away on grand projects and there would be little or nothing to show for it. 

Thanks for clearing that up I'm sure everyone up here welcomes your in depth and informed bipartisan analysis. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-sea-oil-money-uk-norwegians-fund

> You'll cite how Scotland's wind projects etc are doing x and y, but they are funded by everyone in the UK from the money added to everyone electric bills. 

No I wasn't going to say anything about green energy thanks. 

> It's a guardian article.

And that £24 bil is the equivalent of one year of Scottish oil and gas revenue out of 5 decades. 

You should have stuck to toast rather than scrabbled eggs for your breakfast 🙂

Post edited at 08:59
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

>  1707 ? 

Are you telling me Scotland has been a net contributor to the uk Exchequer since the union?

> norwegians-fund

I know all about the Norwegian sovereign fund. But Scots aren't Norwegians. You'd want to spend it now. The Norwegians spend only a few percent of their oil revenue, they pay for everything else up front through taxation, 2nd or 3rd highest tax in the world. You really think Scottish politicians would have saved the money for a rainy day. 

> And that £24 bil is the equivalent of one year of Scottish oil and gas revenue out of 5 decades. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiHp-fDmL7kAhVZ4KYKHeT0COIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Fus-britain-banks%2Fuk-rakes-in-record-75-billion-pounds-in-city-taxes-amid-brexit-warnings-idUKKBN1O3003&psig=AOvVaw0oN7gfsq3Or93sPDixc96C&ust=1567927846394191

The guardian article estimate £300bn in tax revenue over the oil fields entire lifetime. The article above puts the city of London tax input last year as £75bn alone. 

The oil paid well, but there were plenty subsidies and incentives, plus it was a brief window in the big scheme of things. Plenty parts of the UK have industries which boom and provide a small boost at their time. At peak oil was 3 or 4% of tax, hardly the lions share. What about mills, coal, copper, lead, clay, fish, slate, salt etc.. different industries which at their peak contributed vastly. Every part of the UK could find a reason it thinks it deserves special treatment for because of historical reasons. 

Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to summo:

> Are you telling me Scotland has been a net contributor to the uk Exchequer since the union?

Are you telling me the Barnett Formula has been active since Queen Anne? 

> I know all about the Norwegian sovereign fund. But Scots aren't Norwegians. You'd want to spend it now. The Norwegians spend only a few percent of their oil revenue, they pay for everything else up front through taxation, 2nd or 3rd highest tax in the world. You really think Scottish politicians would have saved the money for a rainy day. 

Yes we are quite good with savings up here. In fact I think one of us invented your Bank of England for you. 

> The guardian article estimate £300bn in tax revenue over the oil fields entire lifetime. The article above puts the city of London tax input last year as £75bn alone. 

The Guardian article I posted stated an estimate of £350 billion but another of £850 billion. 

> The oil paid well, but there were plenty subsidies and incentives, plus it was a brief window in the big scheme of things. Plenty parts of the UK have industries which boom and provide a small boost at their time. At peak oil was 3 or 4% of tax, hardly the lions share. What about mills, coal, copper, lead, clay, fish, slate, salt etc.. different industries which at their peak contributed vastly. Every part of the UK could find a reason it thinks it deserves special treatment for because of historical reasons. 

Blah blah meanwhile back at the ranch you initially howled in indignation about the Barnett formula money going to Scotland. Which was started in 1978ish and at the same time as the vast oil and gas revenues from Scottish waters were filling up British tax coffers and have done ever since so do you get my point ? 

1
summo 07 Sep 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> Yes we are quite good with savings up here. In fact I think one of us invented your Bank of England for you. 

The Bank of England is usually related to lending, not saving. Banks lend far more than they have in savings. 

How have the last couple of years been annual deficit? Edinburgh trams? Scottish parliament? Sturgeons involvement in prestrick airport? 

> Blah blah meanwhile back at the ranch you initially howled in indignation about the Barnett formula money going to Scotland. Which was started in 1978ish and at the same time as the vast oil and gas revenues from Scottish waters were filling up British tax coffers and have done ever since so do you get my point ? 

Scottish waters? At what point were they Scottish? 

You mean only descendents of Caledonian picts? Which is where the oilfield lies off if you want to set your watch to pre Roman times. Or perhaps Scotia if you chose 900ish ad, or some areas were norse mid 10th century, for the oilfields to the north of the mainland.

Glasgow and Edinburgh would have laid in damnonii & votadini, or Strathclyde & gododdin, or Northumbria, before eventually being encompassed in Scotland along with the area the oil lies.

I'd imagine all the true Scots north of Perth must be pretty bitter sending all their oil money to you southerners in the central belt, to waste on trams, parliament buildings, bridges and pure dead brilliant airports. 

Post edited at 11:13
1
Pefa 07 Sep 2019
In reply to summo:

😴

fred99 09 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Surely you don't want to ignore the vast amount of money that Britain paid out to bail out the SCOTTISH banks when the banks went belly-up.

Also not all North Sea oil is Scottish. 50% (or so) is Orkney/Shetland, and either could (should) choose whether they wish to be part of Scotland or RUK. Plus when you look at the way that the border river enters the North Sea the true (as per international law) border goes a lot further north than Scotland would like, so a good portion of North Sea oil is most probably English as well.

1
krikoman 09 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Safe Tory seat here, though a few wards are turning red, it would be hard to get rid of the Tories unfortunately.

1
Welsh Kate 09 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Cardiff South and Penarth with a current Labour majority of nearly 15,000. It started as Jim Callaghan's seat and I can't see it doing anything but remain Labour. Our MP, Stephen Doughty, has been increasing his majority with each election and voted consistently pro-EU (even against LP whips on occasion) for a constituency that was 60/40 remain.

tom_in_edinburgh 09 Sep 2019
In reply to fred99:

> Surely you don't want to ignore the vast amount of money that Britain paid out to bail out the SCOTTISH banks when the banks went belly-up.

They aren't Scottish banks.  They've got 'Scotland' in the name but after Royal Bank of Scotland merged with Nat West and Bank of Scotland merged with Halifax the vast majority of their operations are in England.   The Westminster government was making sure the depositors, most of whom were English, didn't lose money.   After independence the only thing Scotland should be liable for is the proportion of any bailouts relating to operatios and customers in Scotland.   Of course, if we are taking a share of the UK's debts we'd also want our share of the assets.

> Also not all North Sea oil is Scottish. 50% (or so) is Orkney/Shetland, and either could (should) choose whether they wish to be part of Scotland or RUK. Plus when you look at the way that the border river enters the North Sea the true (as per international law) border goes a lot further north than Scotland would like, so a good portion of North Sea oil is most probably English as well.

Yeah, sure.  Westminster already f*cked with the maritime border to steal some of the oil for England just so Scotland looked poorer.  Maybe an independent Scotland will go to court and get that reversed.   Orkney and Shetland are part of Scotland,  we aren't about to let the English play the same dirty game they played with Ireland.

toad 09 Sep 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

For the first time ever, I think I’ll actually have an interesting election. My mp is ken Clarke, a rock solid Tory seat up to now but we also voted heavily to remain. So a dissident Tory, an official Tory, a fairly strong green candidate ( if it’s the usual) and a strong local labour machine. Interesting times, and all that. Will be fun to see if Brexit party has a go as well

hmm. Forgot the Lib Dem’s. Historically they haven’t done much, but that’s in the air as well

Post edited at 11:51
fred99 09 Sep 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Yeah, sure.  Westminster already f*cked with the maritime border to steal some of the oil for England just so Scotland looked poorer.  Maybe an independent Scotland will go to court and get that reversed.   Orkney and Shetland are part of Scotland,  we aren't about to let the English play the same dirty game they played with Ireland.

Borders are set under international law, so if there was a split it wouldn't be under the control of either London or Edinburgh.

As for Orkney/Shetland - don't you think they should be given the same privilege as Scotland, and CHOOSE which country they wish to be part of, or for that matter go completely independent - after all, all Scotland wants them for is the oil. They might even think they're better suited to be part of Norway for that matter - far more history there than with Scotland.

Doug 09 Sep 2019
In reply to fred99:

> ... They might even think they're better suited to be part of Norway for that matter - far more history there than with Scotland.

I can't remember any of the details but didn't Orkey & Shetland become Scottish by a marriage with a Margaret of Denmark ? - so maybe they could become part of Denmark & stay in the EU ?


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