In reply to Si dH:
> I was expecting rising cases in all under 50s by now. Really good news (in the UK.)
Yes, I was expecting a rise by now so I'm very glad to have been wrong. Accounting for LFDs the demographics suggest the fall is still happening in all age range, so we don't even have rising younger cases masked by falling older ones, but a genuine fall. This is great news for us, as it means that by the next unlocking, cases should be so low that if we do return to signifiant spread, there's still a lot of time to understand and act on that before the absolute numbers become worryingly high.
In reply to Yanis Nayu:
> Just FYI, nearly all positive PCRs are being genome sequenced now.
Interesting. The COG-UK coverage maps are almost all saturated at 20% now; it sounds like they need to adjust their colour map...
In reply to mik82:
> The Indian variant has probably been thoroughly seeded throughout the UK already given the amount of travel, and the high positivity rates in India
There were similar thoughts over the SA variant a couple of months ago, and that's remained surprisingly low, especially if we're now sequencing most cases. Perhaps the enhanced contact tracing and surge testing has been enough to keep a lid on it; let's hope so.
In reply to Misha:
> The real issue is going to be the 17 May relaxations. Letter from Heneghan & co demanding the end of all restrictions and face mask wearing from June 21st. Oh dear...
How the hell Heneghan continues to hold a chair at Oxford University I'll never know.
In reply to girlymonkey:
I've not seen definitive information on variant adapted "boosters". Given that the same mutations are cropping up over and over again, it doesn't feel like a lost cause. But at some point do we have to face up to accepting widespread infection by new variants, moderated in their effects by existing vaccines and improved therapeutics so that we end up with true herd immunity? I don't think that time comes for another year as a lot of hopefully very useful immunomodulatory stuff is still in the clinical trials pipeline.
> Just listened to a really good Science Unscripted that cited (and interviewed the lead author) of an open letter written by German aerosol experts to the government. Trying to find the papers now. I heard it on the weekly roundup but there's an episode entitled "99.9% of COVID-19 infections happen indoors" which must be more of the same. You'll like it.
Thanks for the links. Back in early 2020 when chest freezers sold out everywhere, I had no trouble getting a couple of HEPA filters for home (in case one of us got it) and for my office/workshop (assuming opening windows isn't enough on a breeze-free day). There's been 14 months now to fit air filtration and ventilation to workplaces and schools.