Flextended Brextension

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 MonkeyPuzzle 28 Oct 2019

So, shock of all shocks, the EU27 have done the sensible thing and agreed the extension to 31/01/2020 as per the Benn Act. No Hungarian, Polish or French veto, and Johnson's pathetic second letter gambit coming to absolutely nought as well. So far so tedious.

So what shall we actually *do* with the extension?

A 2nd ref just doesn't have the numbers in parliament so a GE is the inevitable next step. However Labour will apparently abstain on the confidence vote meaning it can't pass. What the hell else they see as an alternative I don't know.

Any ideas?

2
 Rob Exile Ward 28 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

I don't understand what a GE will solve. We now know what the withdrawal deal actually looks like, why not hold a referendum to confirm that or alternatively opt to Remain, seeing as everyone can now see that the sunny uplands will only be reached after 50 years of hard climbing.

If the Great British Public still voted to leave then I for one would quietly despair and f* off to a more EU friendly country.  

5
 Yanis Nayu 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

It won’t solve anything, other than if the Tories pack the candidates with hard Brexit advocates and then get a big majority. Which is possible. In terms of understanding what the current mandate for Brexit is, nothing. The most sensible way forward is a second referendum. 

5
OP MonkeyPuzzle 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

A 2nd ref absolutely makes most sense but I don't think anyone sees a route to it with this parliament.

4
 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

I don't get this big majority tory thing- surely with the country split 50/50 leave remain this will mean an electorate that will vote similarly?  

Also,  I don't believe any Labour voting leaver will ever vote Tory and will vote BP- (splitting the leave vote) and visa versa any Tory remained will never vote Lab and will vote Lib Dem thus splitting the remain vote.

Therefore a hung parliament and a continued Brexit stalemate. 

Post edited at 18:00
Removed User 28 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

Electoral calculus currently predicts a 56 seat majority for the Tories after a GE. If they get that then BJ gets his bill through Parliament and we're out.

The only way I see that changing is to settle Brexit before a GE. That means a second referendum.

2
Removed User 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

Check out the Britainelects website. Labour is about 10% behind the Tories at the moment. With our fptp system that means a big majority for BJ.

 Dax H 28 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

Past experience says what we will actually do with the extension is piss it away fighting between ourselves just like we have the last 2 or is it 3 extensions. 

 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

That's exactly what I can't understand- 56 seat majority??  SNP will clean up Scotland, I can imagine the Welsh also voting Nationalist after this clusterf++= and NI never vote tory so that leaves little old England and I can't see places like Bradford West ever ever ever having a Tory MP (thankfully)

3
 DerwentDiluted 28 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

The year is 3186, and crowds gather in Brussells to watch the biannual ceremony of the British PM coming to request a Brexit extension. No one is really sure of the origins of this ancient ritual, lost to the swirling mists of time, but they enjoy the theatre of the 'will they, won't they, of course they will'.

OP MonkeyPuzzle 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

But where are the votes for a 2nd referendum in parliament?

 Yanis Nayu 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

I think I’m just infected with pessimism tbh. 

1
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

The sensible thing would be a second EU referendum but sensible isn't going to happen when Johnson and Corbyn both don't want it.

We will get a GE at the start of December.   If SNP get almost all the Scottish seats Sturgeon will demand an Indyref and if Boris says no to an s30 order she'll claim a mandate to do it without.   The trick will be to get the English Tories completely incensed about how much Scotland costs them so we get pushed rather than having to pull ourselves out against resistance.  If the SNP can get his base angry enough Boris won't even try to stop indyref2.

5
 Robert Durran 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

> I don't get this big majority tory thing- surely with the country split 50/50 leave remain this will mean an electorate that will vote similarly?  

But if all the leavers voted tory and the remainers' votes were split between the other parties, the tories would get a huge majority. Even with only a 40% leave vote and a big majority for remain, the tories could get a good majority. With FPTP, a GE is a terrible way of deciding on Brexit. The only hope would be for the leave vote to be split with Farage.

1
 Offwidth 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

No it does not: in normal times seats don't ever move in an exact line with polls and we are now in genuinely interesting times. However, you can pretty much guarentee nearly all the Scottish tory MPs are toast and at least double figures in tory seats will be lost to the Liberals in the S and SW, and the tories will need the seats to replace the DUP; and even if Brexit do very badly (as UKIP will), that isn't going to be easy. For the predictions similar to yours (biggish majority for Boris), Labour need to lose large numbers of locally well respected MPs in the midlands, Wales and the north, and that ain't going to happen, even with a Brexit tory deal (that I can't see being agreed). For Boris to lose an election the progressives probably just need to hold their nerve, be hopeful and encourage as many similar people as they can to vote, and if posible vote tactically, in seats where the fight is clearly a progressive tory two way fight. I don't think Labour can win a majority that way but who cares given what's at stake if Boris wins; plus all these tory horror stories of what Corbyn will supposedly do become irrelevant in any minority government or coalition including them, so swing voters don't need to lose any sleep about voting tactically for Labour (unless their prospective Labour MP is very far left, with no interest in helping centrist constituents).

Best for Britian and Remain United amongst other sites will indicate how best to vote to defeat tories in local marginals.  

https://www.bestforbritain.org

https://www.remainunited.org 

https://tactical.vote

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 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:but that’s my hope- there is no way a traditional labour voter who wants to leave (in Mansfield or Bradford or Middlesbrough etc, etc) will ever vote Tory- It’s too tribal - they’ll vote Brexit party.

 Offwidth 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

You're forgetting remain voters are very unevenly geographically distributed by party in England and Wales whereas Brexit and tory voters align pretty well. Plus a lot of people will always vote for a sitting MP that they really like (more common on the progreesive side or the tory left.... it's why great constituency MPs like Tony Benn always did so well: I even knew a few normally tory voters who voted for him as MP). Any election will be closer than most predict and I'm pretty sure Boris will lose if tactical voting takes off well in marginals. Also the more troublesome or distant Brexit looks, the more the Brexit party will gain.

3
 Offwidth 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

Don't talk about areas you don't know. Mansfield already has a tory MP.

1
 Robert Durran 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> Any election will be closer than most predict and I'm pretty sure Boris will lose if tactical voting takes off well in marginals.

I hope you are right and that it does.

> Also the more troublesome or distant Brexit looks, the more the Brexit party will gain.

Yes, I think it is crucial that Brexit is not a done deal before an election, so that the Brexit party gains (even though it feels very wrong to wish votes Farage!)

1
Deadeye 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

An election will give BoJo a large majority because ~60% of constituencies were leave (because of the variation in size of constituency and the distribution of leavers/remainers it's far from the 52/48 of the referendum).

Assuming (which seems likely) that Brexit is the most significant campaign factor, an election hands a significant majority to the Tories.  Add to that the fact that many of the remain tories would rather Brexit than have Corbyn as PM and, well, we're (remainers) buggered.

 Tringa 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Deadeye:

I think one of the best reason for not having a GE is because Boris Johnson wants one. He hopes, and I think he is probably right(though there is the possibility of a hung parliament) that he will get a workable majority and then be able to push through anything he wants.

I know it won't happen, but I'd like an interviewer to get Johnson and say,"Parliament has voted in favour of your WA, but want a bit more time to scrutinise it. As we are not going to leave on the 31st October why are you so against parliamentary scrutiny of the WA?"

Dave

In reply to Tringa:

No one seems to have mentioned yet that MPs have just (well I think half an hour ago now) voted against Boris's Dec 12 GE plan.

2
 Rob Parsons 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

The Lib Dems and the SNP are calling for an election on Dec 9. A bill to that effect might pass.

 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Deadeye:

 Peterborough bi election?

I might just be over optimistic.

OP MonkeyPuzzle 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Deadeye:

Recent polling showed Brexit as most important issue for 45% of Remainers and only 30% of Leavers. This could matter enough in Labour leave seats to help prevent a Tory majority. The Brexit party taking more votes off the Tories also will help, as Tory votes count more than fringe parties under FPTP.

There's a chance for Remain still.

4
 Dave Garnett 28 Oct 2019
In reply to DerwentDiluted:

> The year is 3186, and crowds gather in Brussells to watch the biannual ceremony of the British PM coming to request a Brexit extension. No one is really sure of the origins of this ancient ritual, lost to the swirling mists of time, but they enjoy the theatre of the 'will they, won't they, of course they will'.

(C) R4!  Or was it Brexitcast?

 climbingpixie 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

> Also,  I don't believe any Labour voting leaver will ever vote Tory and will vote BP- (splitting the leave vote) and visa versa any Tory remained will never vote Lab and will vote Lib Dem thus splitting the remain vote.

Was chatting online to a staunch Labour leaver the other day and she was pretty conflicted about the whole thing. As keen as she is on Brexit, she's also deeply distrustful of the Tories and unlikely to switch her support to them. The abandonment of the DUP has also eroded trust in the party - BJ may be flirting with northern leave constituencies at the moment but people know that he'll forget about them as soon as they're no longer politically useful.

Post edited at 20:41
2
 Robert Durran 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Tringa:

> I know it won't happen, but I'd like an interviewer to get Johnson and say,"Parliament has voted in favour of your WA, but want a bit more time to scrutinise it. As we are not going to leave on the 31st October why are you so against parliamentary scrutiny of the WA?"

Yes, its clear that he knows that, under proper scrutiny, it will be ripped apart by opposition amendments so that it will become unacceptable to the ERG and won't pass. That would leave him very vulnerable to Farage's lot. 

3
 pec 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> Don't talk about areas you don't know. Mansfield already has a tory MP.


As does Middlesbrough.

1
 pec 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

> but that’s my hope- there is no way a traditional labour voter who wants to leave (in Mansfield or Bradford or Middlesbrough etc, etc) will ever vote Tory- It’s too tribal - they’ll vote Brexit party.


A 4% swing to the Conservatives (not exactly huge) would gain them c.50 seats, many traditional Labour voting seats

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Removed User 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

While I admire your optimism and sincerely hope I'm wrong, Labour are currently 10% behind the tories in the polls: http://britainelects.com and while you are right that results don't exactly follow polls, that's a very big margin. The number I quoted does purport to account for regionality https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

I think those who don't want a tory government will need to indulge in tactical voting if there is going to be a realistic chance of stopping BJ staying in Downing street until 2025.

 Alex@home 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

There's also the possibility that some leavers might actually be true to their words when they say they don't trust any politicians now because they haven't delivered the will of the people and so they won't vote for anybody. I know it's not much to cling onto ...

2
 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

Oops that's me told.

 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to pec:

Andy Mcdonald MP?

 Offwidth 28 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

Labour were similarly behind at this stage last time and the tories won those seats in Scotland, smiled at the demise of the Liberals and still needed to do a deal with the DUP.

Being 10% behind in the polls is almost irrelevant in the politics we have today. I'm not saying Boris can't win,  I'm saying I see a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome and as such his chances of a majority are way overstated. Too many progressives are depressing themselves unnecessarily when they need to be gearing up to help campaigns. For a reasonable majority he needs to take 40+ seats off mainly popular local Labour MPs (as fortunately it seems the attempts of Momentun to force reselections of quite a few of those same MPs, as a gift to Boris, isn't going so well).

I think Polly is about right on this whatever the result:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/election-boris-johnso...

Boris is a liar and dodgy as anything and would trash the UK for the sake of his own power and most people who are not tory party members know it

Post edited at 21:37
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 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

This is my thoughts too -I just can't see labour voting cons and visa versa 

2017 election showed this, Peterborough bi election showed this.

Gone for good 28 Oct 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> The sensible thing would be a second EU referendum but sensible isn't going to happen when Johnson and Corbyn both don't want it.

> We will get a GE at the start of December.   If SNP get almost all the Scottish seats Sturgeon will demand an Indyref and if Boris says no to an s30 order she'll claim a mandate to do it without.   The trick will be to get the English Tories completely incensed about how much Scotland costs them so we get pushed rather than having to pull ourselves out against resistance.  If the SNP can get his base angry enough Boris won't even try to stop indyref2.

Your base is 25% of the electorate. At best. (36% voted SNP during last election but a low turnout of 66% ) Dream on.You don't have the numbers to make a case for independence. 

4
 pec 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

> Andy Mcdonald MP?


No, Simon Clarke

https://www.simon-clarke.org.uk/

1
 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to pec

Middlesbrough South not Middlesbrough mate- so we're both right. 

 LastBoyScout 28 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

I got the Lib Dems election pamphlet through the door today and had a scan through while cooking dinner.

Their NUMBER 1 priority, if elected, is to cancel Brexit - which seems to me an attempt to use the GE as a 2nd Referendum in all but name.

 The New NickB 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

The key question will be how many seats the Brexit Party cost the tories, Farage's band of nutters don't have to win seats, but they could cost the Tories in some of the must win seats. Most of the swing from Leave to Remain appears to be from traditional Labour voters, if you believe the polls and many of those Labour Leave seats, probably aren't anymore. We will obviously see the SNP and Lib Dems make ground. I think we are in new territory for the pollsters, predicting numbers of seats is a lot more complicated than it once was.

OP MonkeyPuzzle 28 Oct 2019
In reply to LastBoyScout:

But FPTP and all the bribes that Johnson will be throwing at the public totally muddy the waters.

3
 pec 28 Oct 2019
In reply to haworthjim:

> In reply to pec

> Middlesbrough South not Middlesbrough mate- so we're both right. 


Middlesbrough is a town, the southern part of it is in a Conservative held constituency. Middlesbrough has one Labour and one Conservative MP.

 haworthjim 28 Oct 2019
In reply to pec:

I know, Ive just told you that ;

1
 Offwidth 28 Oct 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Start as a baseline with no change in tactical voting  from 2017 and the Brexit party having the same number as the  2017  UKIP votes: even with that the tories still likely need to win 40+ seats from Labour up to the 4.5% majority range. Not all of those are in major brexit voting constituencies and many are moderate Labour MPs some facing some scary (for swing voters) new ERG style tory candidates (as local tory constituencies move gradually rightward).

I've never seen convincing evidence that much more more than half of normal Labour voters voted for brexit in any constituency anywhere.

2
In reply to Gone for good:

> Your base is 25% of the electorate. At best. (36% voted SNP during last election but a low turnout of 66% ) Dream on.You don't have the numbers to make a case for independence. 

Totally different situation from the last election, much closer to the one just after the first indyref.  Last time Theresa May was PM and Ruth Davidson was leading the Scottish Tories and pushing a very moderate, EEA style Brexit and talking like she was the leader of the Scottish Tories and would control the Scottish Tory Westminster MPs.  The middle class unionist Tory vote in Scotland could live with Ruth.   What they actually got was a bunch of hard-line Brexiteer MPs that ignored Ruth and followed Boris.  Ruth got pushed aside and then got herself a sweet gig in London with a PR company.   The new Scottish Tory leaders are unsympathetic, inarticulate drones who are out of sync with their constituents on Brexit.  

The Tories are going to implode in Scotland, the SNP and Lib Dems just need to pick up the pieces.

4
 The New NickB 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

I think that the assumption that the Brexit Party will get a similar number of votes to UKIP in 2017 is very wrong, UKIP got less than 600,000 votes in 2017, the Brexit Party are likely to get several million, probably more than UKIP in 2015. The big question is distribution and impact.

 Andy Hardy 29 Oct 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Another thing to muddy the waters with: how much are the various parties spending on micro-targetted advertising, this time around?

Until that thorny issue is dealt with (and associated problems with troll farms / bots etc) democracy is going to be compromised to a greater or lesser extent.

I think the only solution is to turn the internet off for 6 weeks prior to the election!

1
 Toccata 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

The two factors that make me worry we're heading for a thumping Tory majority are:

1) Lack of understanding where we are with Brexit. The message 'get Brexit done' seems to have been one of the more successful misinformation campaigns of recent years. The current deal just kicks the can down the road for 12 months and we'll be back asking for extension for the next decade until a 'FTD' is done. Even this morning on the business section of Today (0615) a business owner declared she wanted to get the deal through to get some certainly despite being a remainer.  They'll be no certainty for a decade but I think most voters believe the Tories are on the cusp of sorting Brexit.

2) None of the swing voters I know can bring themselves to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. This includes 'mainly Labour' and 'mainly Tory' voters.

1
 climbingpixie 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

At this stage, anyone who reckons they know what the outcome will be is kidding themselves, whether that's confident Tories or depressed progressives. Electoral volatility is high and the effect of Brexit as a distorting lens will be profound. Also, a month is a long time in UK politics at the moment and campaigns are unpredictable.

That said, I reckon it's about 50/50 between a hung parliament and a small Tory majority. A bit of tactical voting and a cessation of friendly fire between remain parties would help a lot. I'm putting the chances of a Tory majority higher than you because I fear that the effect of the BXP won't be very big - I've been listening to Farage's show on LBC recently and his attempts to whip up his supporters into an anti-Boris, anti-WAB fervour have been falling flat. Brexit fatigue rather than leave/remain passion is probably the defining feature of this election - people will vote for whoever is going to make it stop - and the Tories are already on point with this messaging.

Post edited at 08:16
In reply to Toccata:

> 2) None of the swing voters I know can bring themselves to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. This includes 'mainly Labour' and 'mainly Tory' voters.

That's my main concern as well. A general election is about far more than just Brexit, which is why we need a second referendum on the deal that has been struck. No doubt that Johnson and his cronies have crunched the numbers and realize they have a better chance of success with a general election, where they could take a sizeable majority on well under the 50% of the vote they would need in in a second referendum.

Sadly a GE would be a wasted vote for me, I am no fan of Jeremy Corbyn but in the last few years he has become the lesser of two evils compared to the Tories. Unfortunately I live on the edge of Plymouth and fall under the South Hams district, which has a lot of well off old folk thus making it a very safe Tory seat.

 Arms Cliff 29 Oct 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

> A bit of tactical voting and a cessation of friendly fire between remain parties would help a lot.

I guess it would help if the main opposition were actually a ‘remain’ party rather a ‘vote for us and we will go back and get a better deal then get a second referendum sorted, then campaign against that deal’ or whatever their current stance is! 

1
 yorkshire_lad2 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:


The 650 MPs have been unable to sort this out after 3 years, so why will they sort it out in 3 months.

A GE is a waste of time amd money, particularly as it won't cover any of the useful issues (e.g. health) it'll be mainly a single-issue GE (B*****).

OTOH, if we have another EU ref, and the result is the same (leave wins again), we're back where we stareted (but as someone pointed out, at least we know what B***** looks like, not the work of fiction that was peddled for the first ref).

No doubt there'll be Brexit/Farage/UKIP/Leave candiates fielded at any forthcoming GE; pity that there won't be any Remain candidates so the voters can express thier views (without expressing political allegiance of Tory/Lab/LD et al).

I also heard a statistic the other day that the floating voat, which was traditionally been about 13%, is now 47%.  I didn't really believe it, but that should be a major consideration for any politician hoping to sell their soul to the electorate.

Does anyone believe anything BJ says any more?

Personally, I think the lot of them (MPs) are useless in relation to sorting Brexit (they can't organise a piss-up in a brewery), and I'd vote tactically, probably Green, or Lib Dem if there's a candidate on the basis of them cancelling Brexit.  Alternatively a "None of the above" on the GE ballot paper would be nice, as a kick in the proverbial to the self-importance of the so-called elected representatives at Westminster.

1
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Arms Cliff:

> I guess it would help if the main opposition were actually a ‘remain’ party rather a ‘vote for us and we will go back and get a better deal then get a second referendum sorted, then campaign against that deal’ or whatever their current stance is! 

You've unwittingly hit the nail on the head, you are 'guessing'.

2
 Ramblin dave 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Toccata:

> 2) None of the swing voters I know can bring themselves to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. This includes 'mainly Labour' and 'mainly Tory' voters.

This does my head in, to be honest. I can see how you might not like Corbyn, might have doubts about his policies (although when his policies are presented in the abstract they're normally actually quite popular), but the effectiveness with which people seem to have been groomed to see voting for him as basically unthinkable because he's literally worse than any conceivable alternative is scary. "I mean, sure the other lot seem to be actively scheming to tear up the Good Friday Agreement and plunge the country into a deep recession purely so they can strip away workers rights and environmental protections and screw the NHS for the benefit of private healthcare companies and they basically want to destroy everything that I've ever said that I stand for, but I just can't bring myself to vote for Jeremy Corbyn."

1
 Toccata 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Ramblin dave:

> This does my head in, to be honest........ "I mean, sure the other lot seem to be actively scheming to tear up the Good Friday Agreement and plunge the country into a deep recession purely so they can strip away workers rights and environmental protections and screw the NHS for the benefit of private healthcare companies and they basically want to destroy everything that I've ever said that I stand for, but I just can't bring myself to vote for Jeremy Corbyn."

Here's the rub: voters consider JC a Brexiteer who is, in essence, trying to do the same thing but also with a host of aspirational rather than pragmatic economic policies.

NB This is not my opinion.

1
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Ramblin dave:

> This does my head in, to be honest. I can see how you might not like Corbyn, might have doubts about his policies (although when his policies are presented in the abstract they're normally actually quite popular), but the effectiveness with which people seem to have been groomed to see voting for him as basically unthinkable because he's literally worse than any conceivable alternative is scary.

Yep, especially when you consider Labour would be in coalition if in government.

Now the election is all but announced, there are remainers sharpening the knife for the biggest 'cut your nose off to spite their face' in history.

Post edited at 11:18
OP MonkeyPuzzle 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

Well, the Labour three-line whip to vote for a GE is in. Election it is, barring a truly bizarre turn of events today.

If the Remain parties can't agree an electoral pact then Remain voters will have to self-organise for tactical voting in marginal seats.

That's Christmas ruined anyway.

 Andy Hardy 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Ramblin dave:

> This does my head in, to be honest. I can see how you might not like Corbyn, might have doubts about his policies (although when his policies are presented in the abstract they're normally actually quite popular), but the effectiveness with which people seem to have been groomed to see voting for him as basically unthinkable because he's literally worse than any conceivable alternative is scary. "I mean, sure the other lot seem to be actively scheming to tear up the Good Friday Agreement and plunge the country into a deep recession purely so they can strip away workers rights and environmental protections and screw the NHS for the benefit of private healthcare companies and they basically want to destroy everything that I've ever said that I stand for, but I just can't bring myself to vote for Jeremy Corbyn."


The reason I couldn't vote for Corbyn is simply his position on Brexit. He is a lifelong eurosceptic, has always voted against EU treaties etc and by his actions clearly wants Brexit. His arse splintering fence sitting and constant manouvering against either revoke A50, or a 2nd ref. make me sick - especially given that the majority of labour members are remainers. If he was demonstrably and genuinely for remain, the Tories would not in a million years be considering a GE because they would be toast.

Fortunately for me I'm in a LD/Con constituency, but if it were in a Lab/Con I'd be in a proper dilemma.

2
OP MonkeyPuzzle 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

Labour are offering a People's Vote. Corbyn would be PM for five years at the absolute most. Brexit is for life, Corbyn's just for Christmas.

1
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle: See. "I'll show that face,... who needs a nose anyway!"

The real shame is if all these centre-left remainers had actually done something useful and joined the Labour party, we'd be going into this election with a different leader. But no, they expected other people to give up their time.

Post edited at 11:39
 Pete Pozman 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

Corbyn has given the thumbs up for a December election. Feels like the rough beast is slouching irresistibly on. I'm not looking forward to a merry Christmas 

Removed User 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

Last night the only party still pushing for a second referendum were the Labour party. The Labour party has consistently voted against Brexit.

Today if the Lib Dems and SNP desert their positions and vote for a GE then Labour will be left with little choice but to follow.

Remember this moment in the coming months, it was not the Labour party, not even Jeremy, who facilitated Brexit. It was the Lib Dems and the SNP and they've done it for party political reasons.

Don't forget.

7
 Andy Hardy 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

No. Corbyn wants a GE, *if* he wins, *then* he will extend the deadline, re-negotiate *a* customs union and a "jobs first" Brexit, and *after* *all* *that* put it to the people.

There are too many ifs buts and maybes there. Brexit is a real and present danger to the UK, Corbyn cannot take control of brexit, because he wants it to be "Tory brexit". Corbyn could have forced a peoples vote already, but did not give the ammendment his support, so I don't buy any BS about Labour offering a PV, by the time Corbyn's gone it will be too late

1
 Andy Hardy 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

The labour party might want a PV, but Corbyn doesn't

Edit to add: Jeremy Corbyn NOT facilitating brexit? you're having a laugh

Post edited at 11:58
1
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> ". Corbyn could have forced a peoples vote already, but did not give the ammendment his support, 

Absolute B*llocks. Do you actually believe that?

 neilh 29 Oct 2019
In reply to yorkshire_lad2:

Its not that they are useless.Its just that it is not easy to do as the electorate is divided down the middle.So to one side they are useless, to the other side they are doing their job.

" One man's meat is another persons poison".

In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> Labour are offering a People's Vote. Corbyn would be PM for five years at the absolute most. Brexit is for life, Corbyn's just for Christmas.

Let's assume we have a GE around 10 Dec.  The EU extension runs out on 31 Jan and the EU wrote into it that they would not reopen the WA.

Labour are saying vote for us and we will renegotiate the 'Tory deal' and hold a referendum, but they don't have the time for a referendum before Jan 31 and the EU are saying they won't reopen the deal.   

Maybe if they were elected they could persuade the EU.  But the EU are not going to give that offer in advance which means at the election voters could reasonably assume their manifesto is not deliverable.  However, let's suppose they manage to get a new deal on the table and another extension so they can hold their referendum.   They are saying they will campaign for Remain in that referendum.  Which means campaigning against the deal they just negotiated.   Why would the EU engage in a negotiation with somebody who has stated they don't actually want the deal they are negotiating for? 

The simple fact is that this GE is a proxy for a second referendum with Revoke Article 50 and Boris's deal as the options.  Labour need to stop wasting everyone's time and choose a side.

 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> The simple fact is that this GE is a proxy for a second referendum with Revoke Article 50 and Boris's deal as the options.  Labour need to stop wasting everyone's time and choose a side.

Nah. Realistically a 2nd ref is the only way out of Brexit and the EU will facilitate that. The other option will be a variation on May's deal with a different Political Declaration. Swinson was on TV yesterday backpedalling against the Revoke policy.

 Andy Hardy 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Mike Stretford:

27 Labour MPs votes against the Beckett ammendment and suffered no consequences. No expulsion, no removal of the whip. A wink's as good as a nod to blind horse eh?

2
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> 27 Labour MPs votes against the Beckett ammendment and suffered no consequences. No expulsion, no removal of the whip. A wink's as good as a nod to blind horse eh?

The Beckett amendment was something else. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_votes_on_Brexit#Vote_on_first_L...

The number you are referring to are from the 1st round of indicative votes. 71 abstention there, that's how seriously the Tories took those. It would be ridulous for an opposition party to remove the whip from MPs in those circumstances.

A real vote on a 2nd referendum never happened because numbers weren't there, not enough Tory rebels. Yep, there's about 15 Labour MPs who would have resigned the whip to vote against it... no matter what the leadership had done. 

Post edited at 12:52
 Bob Kemp 29 Oct 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh: 

> The simple fact is that this GE is a proxy for a second referendum with Revoke Article 50 and Boris's deal as the options.  Labour need to stop wasting everyone's time and choose a side.

My concern is that Corbyn will try to put Brexit on the back burner and fight the election on his policies -abolishing private schools, state-ownership of pharmaceutical companies, no Ofsted, workers to get equity stake, nationalise Rees-Mogg, etc. All this (regardless of merits) while everyone else uses it as a proxy for Brexit like you say.

 Robert Durran 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> That's Christmas ruined anyway.

Why do you say that?

Removed User 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Bob Kemp:

> My concern is that Corbyn will try to put Brexit on the back burner and fight the election on his policies -abolishing private schools, state-ownership of pharmaceutical companies, no Ofsted, workers to get equity stake, nationalise Rees-Mogg, etc. All this (regardless of merits) while everyone else uses it as a proxy for Brexit like you say.


Don't you think a GE should be decided on all the issues that concern this country?

Removed User 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

Another thought on all of this.

If we have another referendum and Remain loses I'd accept the result and shut up. I think most Remainers think the same.

If there isn't a PV then I'm going to do my best to frustrate the next set of negotiations for the final deal. I expect most Remainers think the same.

If Brexit goes through without an opportunity for the people to have a say then none of this shit is going to go away.

Post edited at 13:09
1
 LastBoyScout 29 Oct 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> The simple fact is that this GE is a proxy for a second referendum with Revoke Article 50 and Boris's deal as the options.  Labour need to stop wasting everyone's time and choose a side.

Which is what I said above, albeit with particular reference to the Lib Dems.

 LastBoyScout 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Mike Stretford:

> Swinson was on TV yesterday backpedalling against the Revoke policy.

I didn't see that, but seems directly against her stance in the leaflet I got.

 climbingpixie 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Arms Cliff:

They're far further towards the remain end of the spectrum than the leave end. As a remainer I much prefer the Lib Dems stance of revoke and remain but realistically we need to vote tactically amd there are many constituencies where Labour pose the best chance of winning.

 Ramblin dave 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> No. Corbyn wants a GE, *if* he wins, *then* he will extend the deadline, re-negotiate *a* customs union and a "jobs first" Brexit, and *after* *all* *that* put it to the people.

It may not be my ideal Brexit position, but it's still a country mile better than the Tory position, which is basically no referendum under any circumstances, hard Brexit, no customs union, screw the economy, blue passports, huzzah.

I don't like to be so blunt, but there are really no two ways about it at this point - for someone in a Lab-Con marginal to not vote for Labour because their Brexit policy isn't pro-remain enough would be idiotic.

 Bob Kemp 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

> Don't you think a GE should be decided on all the issues that concern this country?

Of course,  but if everyone else is going full Brexit, including the voters, Labour will be stuffed.

[Edit] Which is why I think there should be a second referendum, so we can have an election which isn't only about Brexit.

Post edited at 13:17
 fred99 29 Oct 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> Labour are offering a People's Vote. Corbyn would be PM for five years at the absolute most. Brexit is for life, Corbyn's just for Christmas.

Can we roast him please, and shove the stuffing where the sun don't shine.

2
 mullermn 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Removed User:

This particular GE should (sadly, by necessity) be fought on the issues that are going to affect how people vote.

Knowing Corbyn’s keen tactical insight I imagine he will spend his campaign time talking about policies for compulsory allotments for 5 year olds and nationalising shoe shops while everyone else will be talking about Brexit. 

1
 fred99 29 Oct 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

> ... As a remainer I much prefer the Lib Dems stance of revoke and remain but realistically we need to vote tactically amd there are many constituencies where Labour pose the best chance of winning.

My situation as well. It looks as if I've got no choice but to hold my nose and vote Labour - which I swore I'd never do until Corbyn had been got rid of.

Mind you, if Corbyn, Johnson et al could somehow be persuaded to be involved in a REAL train crash all our problems would be solved ....wishful thinking unfortunately.

 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to LastBoyScout:

https://www.channel4.com/news/important-pm-doesnt-have-wriggle-room-to-choo...

Right at the start..... "Peoples Vote" the only way to stop Brexit. Jo didn't get Tom's memo!

 Arms Cliff 29 Oct 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

Agree entirely, but my point was that you can’t have a remain party voting agreement including a party with an ambiguous Brexit stance. A ‘anyone but the conservatives’ agreement would be a different thing! 

 mullermn 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Mike Stretford:

The Express (who I don’t believe are inclined to be nice to the Lib Dem’s) have an article quoting Chuka Umunna as saying: 

‘With the People’s Vote, on that issue, about referring back to this Parliament. The week before last week, 19 Labour MPs actually voted for Boris Johnson’s Hard Brexit.”

The ex-Labour MP continued: “There is no way those 19 are going to support a People’s Vote. And then you’ve got the group of former Conservative MPs. Around half of them are clear that they won’t support a referendum.

“The latest, and one of the leaders of that group, is the former Chancellor Philip Hammond, he was clear yesterday he wouldn’t support a People’s Vote.”

He added: “Therefore without those people coming on board, you don’t have the numbers for a People’s Vote in this Parliament.

“Your best bet in being able to stop Brexit through a People’s Vote is actually getting a new Parliament with different arithmetic‘


Not saying that I particularly agree with him or not, but the position is not illogical. Not every party chooses its positions based on ideals irrespective of the reality of the situation. 

 Offwidth 29 Oct 2019
In reply to The New NickB:

Thats a big part of my point. If Brexit do just 5% better than UKIP in 2017 in northern seats that are tory- Labour two way seats (with no previous Lib Dem showing) then tories need to get an equivalent of a 9.5% swing to take those marginal seats to win the 40 they need. In a more normal election Green and Lib Dem votes would grow in such seats but I don't see that this time given what we are facing.

'Getting brexit done' was thwarted under May by the ERG so what has brought them off? I think the biggest reason is the shift of work and enviromental protections from explicit treatment in the the treaty to what amounts to waffle in the political statement. This is what Corbyn is saying and the tories are spinning heavily against. Then we had the leaked report in the FT, which confirmed Labour concerns and the spin became hyperbolic:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50194676

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/tories-deny-compromise-wor...

 Offwidth 29 Oct 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

I agree with your analysis. My slightly higher optimism in the progressive side is based on the following: trusting more of the british people to see through plain bullshit in general elections; expecting Corbyn to again campaign better than predicted; that the tories said brexit would be done by Halloween, no ifs, no buts; that the tories have lost any sense of fiscal responsibility... their strongest anti Corbyn weapon; that the tory cabinet are full of far right accident prone ministers with major skeletons...easy targets for a smart Labour campaign; big non brexit issues like health, education favour Labour. Biggest of all: that a clear Labour majority looks to be in miracle terrain at present so swing voters worried about Corbyn can hold their nose and vote Labour as he will be forced to compromise in any form of minority government.

Post edited at 13:59
 Mike Stretford 29 Oct 2019
In reply to mullermn:

> Not saying that I particularly agree with him or not, but the position is not illogical. Not every party chooses its positions based on ideals irrespective of the reality of the situation. 

I think we agree. Little discussion started by Tom at 12:02

"The simple fact is that this GE is a proxy for a second referendum with Revoke Article 50 and Boris's deal as the options. "

Realistically, no.

 mullermn 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Mike Stretford:

Ah yes, sorry. Read too much in to your choice of the word ‘backpedaling’ to describe the LibDem position. 

In reply to Removed User:

> Don't you think a GE should be decided on all the issues that concern this country?

There's an elephant in the room.  Your not going to have much luck talking about anything other than elephants until it is gone.

 Offwidth 29 Oct 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Your elephant won't be the same as everyones: if your kid's school is so stuggling to meet budgets that it needs to beg parents for help, if your local A&E is closing; if your local council is bankrupt and slashing vital social services that you rely on; if like in Nottingham the main local college your kids go to is in major strike action due to asking staff who haven't had a pay rise in nearly a decade to sign much worse contracts or be sacked.

OP MonkeyPuzzle 29 Oct 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

Yes. As I posted upthread, 45% of Remain voters listed Brexit as the most important issue facing the country. 30% of Leave voters did the same. If the anti-Brexit parties get it right, they could take some "Leave" seats with a strong domestic agenda.


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