UKH

Some interesting info here.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR2HZf861gE1FTABtzbeKkKi1Mf4jXTtArEYS_v...

Here's the rough idea, with some backup plans

Lockdown - We're doing that now, or we were.

Test, Trace, Isolate - we might be testing SOME people but not enough.

Vaccinate - some time off I think.

In reply to krikoman:

That is an excellent piece of science communication!

CB

In reply to cb294:

I just got shown this on an anatomy facebook group, I'm going to use it as a class activity.

In reply to krikoman:

Great set of visualisations.

Although I wonder if with such a model where there’s no lasting immunity, and given the viral load effects, this becomes self limiting as the cumulative health damage kills the most susceptible people leaving a much lower viral load across the survivors, which then goes on to lower R0 and kick the virus down more.

Itd be interesting to see some visualisation of the null space (balance vectors) of the SEIRS models.

In reply to krikoman:

Awesome, thanks for sharing. Really interesting and well written 

In reply to krikoman:

That's very good. Would be nice to have a 'closed borders eradication' scenario which I believe is a viable option as it makes test and trace so much easier.

In reply to wintertree:

I think that's the scary bit, a lot of people seem to think, if you don't die you're OK, and can go back to normal. But we're not seeing the people who survive but end up very damaged by it. Then as you say, what's the cumulative effects of having it, if there's no vaccine for a while and immunity doesn't last.

Hopefully, people will get some immunity ad it'll be long lasting, otherwise we're dealing with Ebola but on a global scale. Though, and I might be being a bit cynical here, Ebola only really affect Africa.

Thread: I thought the link was great, a bit of a task for many with short attention spans (me included at the moment) but like most people have said, a good demo.

In reply to krikoman: Ebola is quite a bit more lethal ~30% irrespective of any health conditions.  Also R factors were very , very high in the area of the outbreak, so generally a nasty business.