UKH

Evening

Does anyone know when Nicola will impose any new restrictions?

We have a cottage booked in the highlands next Saturday and are wondering whether any restrictions will be imposed prior.

thanks a lot

dave 

aye she's just been round for a cuppy and says you'll be fine.....

hope that helps ; ) 

No, they don't. 

Unlikely, would be mad or bordering on insanity if any restrictions that would effect your holiday was brought in at short notice before next weekend.

No doubt they'll be in by my holiday in October though ☹️

Depends how desperate she is for deflections from incompetence elsewhere.

Surely even wee Jimmie Krankie/ Sturgeon can’t be ridiculous enough to put restrictions in place again. Covid is here for good - throwing restrictions around isn’t the way to go in a society that is becoming ever more vaccinated and I simply can’t see her being able to carry the public with her if she tries it again.

The massive spike is clearly being caused by reopening schools (just watch the same hit England in a week or so).  They need to get on with vaccinating kids sharpish, like most other countries are doing.  That will fix that issue.

Absolutely - a clear, focussed strategy instead of the blunt-axe approach of restrictions is what’s needed.

Yawn.

She does look like him.  I'd vote for her were it an option in England, but I still call her that

The demographics disagree IMO.  I think young adults drove the initial spike, which is subsiding and only now is school related growth taking its place in the data.

Deconstruction of the demographic data here - https://www.ukhillwalking.com/forums/off_belay/friday_night_covid_plotting_41-...

As children are almost never going to hospital or getting ill, them catching the virus isn't so much of an "issue".  Spread of the virus is an issue whilst a large number of adults remain unvaccinated.  Not all the expert bodies out there have agreed on vaccinating non-vulnerable adolescents.  JCVI appear to be deliberating on this and the press are hinting we expect a verdict at some point.  I gather that in Germany, the government have over-rulled their scientific panel (STIKO) in decided to vaccinate adolescents.  We'll see if JCVI update their guidance; in England the government is legally bound to follow that, Scotland choose to rubber stamp it but don't have to.

The issue here IMO was re-opening nightclubs when less than 46% of 18-29 year olds were fully vaccinated and over 25% were completely unvaccinated.  This has rocketed case numbers right up just in time for schools to kick in.

A pertinent comment from SAGE recently:

Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) says it is still difficult to work out whether schools are drivers of transmission, or simply reflecting the spread of the virus in the communities where they are located. - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58357021  

Meanwhile in England cases are not rocketing, they are bubbling along with a very slow, almost linear increase.

What is the one, single difference between the two, I ask?

The answer is schools.

Schools filled with 20-24 year olds but almost nobody under 15? It makes no sense.  Literally no sense.  A week later and the spike that was in 15-19 and 20-24 is now backing off and 0-14 is growing.  Clubs, then schools. Did you look at the data?

We’ve had multiple returns to school during this pandemic and at no point in either Scotland or England has it been accompanied by larger exponential growth in ages 20-24.  

There are two major differences.  Schools are one.

The other big difference between the two is past infection levels in general and the timing of the exit from the football in specific.  That’s also really clear in the age- and gender- based data, with England having three additional weeks or high rate transmission and growth in young adult cases compared to Scotland.  As most of that will have been in unvaccinated adults, a lot more of the gaps in immunity south of the border were filled in.  The gender ratios of cases change massively during the football growth, then crash back to normal days after the respective matches.  Way more water passed under the bridge in England, happening now in Scotland.

If there was a similar transient spike from opening nightclubs in England, it would have fallen against and been lost in the massive decay following the end of the football (made clear both by the giant fall and the gender ratio returning to normal).  

> Meanwhile in England cases are not rocketing, they are bubbling along with a very slow, almost linear increase.

Cases look to be falling in England now, the fall starting first and hardest In young adults where they previously had the most growth.  Feels like a tipping point as immunity levels rise, which feels compatible with England behind ahead of Scotland in infection acquired immunity landing in the gaps in vaccination as a result of England having generally had higher levels of infection throughout, and specifically so around June 2021 where vaccination naturally concentrated infection granted immunity in the unvaccinated.

Scotland partys harder

Indie SAGE looked at Scotland case rises and said much the same as you.

It's just such a tired, lazy trope and often tinged with more than a hint of misogyny.

Encouragingly though, it seems to be the best that many unionists can muster when expressing their opposition to independence.

STIKO have recommended vaccination of all over the age of 12 since the 16th, they say the risk from Delta infection is higher than from vaccination.

Interesting, thanks.

Are they recommending both doses or just the first?   The myocarditis risk seems to be ~9x higher for adolescents after the second dose, so the recommendation for 16 and 17 year olds here is for just the first dose for now, with a decision on the second dose deferred.  This is with the intent of offering health protection rather than suppressing spread.  JCVI seem to be sticking to the line that there's sufficient protection in adults that suppressing transmission as much as possible by fully vaccinating children is not required here.

It'll be very interesting to see what their next updates say..

2 doses mRNA vaccine 3-6 weeks apart ( depending on which one).

FFS Nicola shut the nightclubs

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-aberdeen-club-b...

He is an odd creature.

Something Tolkein accurately described.

My favourite part was the damning by faint praise by the Club night organisers in a different article...

"A statement from clubnight, Pipe, read: "Thanks to all the amazing people, and Michael Gove, who made it out for the first Pipe last night."

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/michael-gove-raves-aberdee... bar

Great to see our leaders leading the charge & at the coal face of the next wave of Covid instead of, I dunno, fleeing to Durham and lying about it. 

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