In reply to Richard Horn:
> Every scientist (Sage etc) I have heard talk have said that variants are expected, we should not get worked up about them, and they are most likely to become more spreadable but less harmful as they evolve.
Have they, really? I think you're just making things up at this point.
The "Kent" variant had both a faster spread and more lethality. The Indian variant has an even faster spread and it's too soon to determine the lethality.
I am speechless at how you interpret the recent importance of watching for worrying variants being an explicit part of the release plan, and how the final release being delayed specifically by such a variant, which to me clearly indicates that they're of paramount concern, can be taken as "not getting worked up".
In terms of viruses evolving to be less harmful - that's not what "every scientist" has said. That's just a bullshit claim. I don't think you'll be evidencing that as even a majority of scientists, let alone "every".
Eventually, viruses end up less lethal as both the virus and the host species co-evolve and find a way to co-exist. Hint: This takes generations of the host species, and involves the winnowing down of host genetic lines that are more susceptible, through a lot of short term death.
Right now, when you look at the illness routes Covid takes and the medical and social care structures in the countries with the worst recent cases histories, it doesn't look to me like there's any real selective pressure in favour of less lethal versions; this isn't a disease like Ebola that's so lethal it risks killing people faster than they can transmit the disease.
> They also do not rule out the fact that a more deadly variant could appear, its unlikely,
I suggest you have no evidence of it being "unlikely". We've seen it happen already, and SARS-nCov-1 and MERS-nCov suggest that we are far, far from the high lethalities that this kind of virus can produce.
Things are getting better now for the UK I think, but they are doing so inspire of those who have consistently sought to downplay the grave risks, not thanks to them.
Post edited at 09:40