/ Cometh the hour cometh the vote

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subtle on 12 Mar 2019

Today is the day the when our MP's make the vote, again, on May's proposed (improved?) Brexit deal - see how this plays out. 

Still early in the day but has she managed to get enough last night to get this over the line, or will the meaningful votes happen over next few days once this has been knocked back, again.

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john arran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

Keir Starmer: "Is there a single phrase of the withdrawal agreement different from what was agreed in November? The answer is no.”

The only difference is that the Brexiters would now be relying on foreign judges to decide an arbitration case, a.k.a. taking back control.

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The Wild Scallion on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

> Today is the day the when our MP's make the vote, again, on May's proposed (improved?) Brexit deal - see how this plays out. 

> Still early in the day but has she managed to get enough last night to get this over the line, or will the meaningful votes happen over next few days once this has been knocked back, again.

No,  It will still fail. 

We will either panic and swerve and extend article 50 .

Or we will just bail out with no clear idea of what is going to happen .

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Deleted bagger - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Wild Scallion:

You seem very certain of yourself.

My partner, both leavers, are going for curry with some friends at 7pm tonight. They're reamainers but we'll still enjoy a feed and each others company. Stay calm and polite everyone.

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The Wild Scallion on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Deleted bagger:

> You seem very certain of yourself.

Have you seen the state of the Government ?

Best prepare for the worst I would suggest.

> My partner, both leavers, are going for curry with some friends at 7pm tonight. They're reamainers but we'll still enjoy a feed and each others company. Stay calm and polite everyone.

I didn't realise I wasn't calm or polite if that's some kind of hint.

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

It'll be interesting to see how spooked the quitter MPs are, how little a figleaf they'll accept to climb down. I suspect it'll fail again but not by much then parliament will reject the get out options wed/thurs then we do this all again in 10 days time. Repulsive.

Jk

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

I'm feeling really pretty nervous.  I hope and think she'll fail to get it through, and thus keep the prospect of no Brexit, or at least a very soft Brexit, alive, but there is undoubtedly a chance that she will have successfully blackmailed the ERG nutters into backing down and that we'll all be screwed.

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snoop6060 - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

I do like the way Teresa gets to just rerun her vote until she gets what she wants (even though nothing has changed) but a second referendum is considered to be making a mockery of democracy. 

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Trevers - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Deleted bagger:

> Stay calm and polite everyone.

Can't disagree with this sentiment, although it's very difficult to stay calm while I watch the ruling party selling my future down the line for it's own survival.

Out of curiosity, may I ask how you would feel if Brexit was cancelled, either through a second referendum, or through a unilateral revoking of Article 50?

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Trevers - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Given the statements coming out of various ERG members and the DUP, I think she's lost. Fingers crossed.

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tom_in_edinburgh - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Looks like May's deal is dead.  Jacob Rees Mogg just tweeted: Dies Irae Dies Illa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpvLPmv2FeY

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Trevers - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Looks like May's deal is dead.  Jacob Rees Mogg just tweeted: Dies Irae Dies Illa

What an utter knob.

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wercat on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> What an utter traitorous self serving knob.

improved that for you

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Greenbanks - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

But the smugness of political classes is unabated; this guy seems positively chipper.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

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what the hex on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

What does "Dies Irae Dies Illa" mean?

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Deleted bagger - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Can't disagree with this sentiment, although it's very difficult to stay calm while I watch the ruling party selling my future down the line for it's own survival.

> Out of curiosity, may I ask how you would feel if Brexit was cancelled, either through a second referendum, or through a unilateral revoking of Article 50?

Prior to that I'd be out there campaigning to get the leave vote out. Old fashioned stuff, knocking on doors, actually talking to people face to face. Did that during referendum campaign, I wouldn't be too put out to do it again. As for if the vote went the other way, I'd have to accept it.

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to what the hex:

> What does "Dies Irae Dies Illa" mean?

Literally "Day of anger, That day", but it's from the requiem mass, presumably a requiem for May's deal.

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I'm feeling really pretty nervous.  I hope and think she'll fail to get it through, and thus keep the prospect of no Brexit, or at least a very soft Brexit, alive, but there is undoubtedly a chance that she will have successfully blackmailed the ERG nutters into backing down and that we'll all be screwed.

What do you think a very soft Brexit looks like?

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Northern Star on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> What do you think a very soft Brexit looks like?


Leave the EU but stay in the single market, stay in the customs union and allow free movement of people.  Not a bad option all things considered.

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Gordon Stainforth - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

It's worth adding the next line:

'The day of wrath, that day
will dissolve the world in ashes ...'

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Given the statements coming out of various ERG members and the DUP, I think she's lost. Fingers crossed.

What do you thnk a loss means?

As far as I can see a loss carries a very real risk of no deal.

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Northern Star:

If we can't get agreement on the current deal how the hell would we ever get agreement on that?

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climbingpixie on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

A win wipes out any chance of a second referendum and a chance to overturn Brexit. A loss might mean no deal but the mood (and votes) in Parliament seem to be pretty strongly against no deal, apart from the ERG headbangers.

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Northern Star on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> If we can't get agreement on the current deal how the hell would we ever get agreement on that?]


I don't know but it more clearly reflects the 'will of the people' from the result of the referendum than any other proposed option and would of course be agreed easily and quickly with the EU unlike the current shambolic deal.  It reflects perfectly the very narrow leave victory whilst also respecting the 48%.  Leaving the EU - but only just!

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

On a personal level I would love to see Brexit halted, but you would have to be monumentally short-sighted to risk no deal in pursuit of that dream.

We've got a deal that allows for an orderly transition, lets end the uncertainty and get on with it so that we can all start forward planning,

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Northern Star:

> I don't know but it more clearly reflects the 'will of the people' from the result of the referendum than any other proposed option and would of course be agreed easily and quickly with the EU unlike the current shambolic deal.  It reflects perfectly the very narrow leave victory whilst also respecting the 48%.  Leaving the EU - but only just!

How have you worked out that it "more clearly reflects the will of the people"?

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myserable old git - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to wercat:

If she wins I trust she kicks all ERG members out of the Conservative party as should have been done long ago!

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> What do you think a very soft Brexit looks like?

Something like Norway.

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Northern Star on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> How have you worked out that it "more clearly reflects the will of the people"?


Because it reflects mathematically the narrow margin of victory in the original referendum.

People voted for or against Brexit for many contrasting and conflicting reasons so you will never be able to define a consensus this way.  The only defining thing we have to go on to establish the way we should have been proceeding is the very close nature of the result - which of course has since been skewed completely off kilter by politicians and the media to mean many different things, including a full blown hard Brexit, depending on their own political agenda.

Post edited at 13:06
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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> We've got a deal that allows for an orderly transition, lets end the uncertainty and get on with it so that we can all start forward planning,

Your "forward planning" would mean years and years more of uncertainty, negotiation and political infighting. Better than no deal, but that's not saying much.

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Dave Garnett - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Something like Norway.

Will we get the lovely crinkly edges?

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Northern Star on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Something like Norway.


Would happily vote for something like this in preference to May's botched deal.

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Dave Garnett:

> Will we get the lovely crinkly edges?

We already have them in Scotland!

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climbingpixie on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

Maybe it's just me being optimistic but I just can't see no deal happening now, there's too much opposition to it in Parliament and in the government. Opposing no deal is the only thing that seems to have a majority in Parliament! Voting for this deal won't end the uncertainty and division - this is only the withdrawal agreement and there's then years of negotiation to follow, with people still in limbo about the ultimate end state, accompanied by the constant risk of May being replaced by a Brexit hardliner and the process being steered towards the harder end of Brexit again.

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Your "forward planning" would mean years and years more of uncertainty, negotiation and political infighting. Better than no deal, but that's not saying much.

Are there any options that can avoid this?

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Gordon Stainforth - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> How have you worked out that it "more clearly reflects the will of the people"?

Opinion polls suggest strongly that the 'will of the people' has now turned a few percentage points against Brexit. And two days ago, even Jeremy Hunt conceded that a second referendum would go against it. (So doesn't want one; so much for democracy)

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1104727278204915712

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Northern Star:

I'll ask a question that I have asked many times before and still not received a clear answer from anyone.

What is wrong with the current deal?

If we are willing to accept a Norway style comromise as you suggest then how does the current deal fail to tick the same boxes?

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timjones - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> Opinion polls suggest strongly that the 'will of the people' has now turned a few percentage points against Brexit. And two days ago, even Jeremy Hunt conceded that a second referendum would go against it. (So doesn't want one; so much for democracy)

If the polling is correct then a soft Brexit would surely be even further away from "the will of the people"?

If our wish is now to remain then accepting EU rules with no input into the legislative process would appear to be an absurd option.

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myserable old git - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to what the hex:

I am a total tosser

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Trevers - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Deleted bagger:

> Prior to that I'd be out there campaigning to get the leave vote out. Old fashioned stuff, knocking on doors, actually talking to people face to face. Did that during referendum campaign, I wouldn't be too put out to do it again. As for if the vote went the other way, I'd have to accept it.

Thanks for the reply. I'll be doing the same, come a second referendum, for remain. Also out of curiosity, what arguments do you think would sway somebody on the fence towards leave? Do you think you'll have a harder task selling Brexit this time round?

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what the hex on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to myserable old git:

I think you could be right!!

Comedian Dom Joly tweeted 'fututus et mori in igni!' in reply, which was witty (if a bit brutal).

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john arran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> We've got a deal that allows for an orderly transition, lets end the uncertainty and get on with it so that we can all start forward planning,

It's a very common misconception right now that May's "deal" say anything at all about the future, as it's simply a Withdrawal Agreement and nothing else. Little transition can really start until a future relationship with the EU has been agreed (i.e.  a destination to transition towards) and that's something that has yet to even start. The whole criticality of the (non time-limited) backstop is because nobody trusts this government to be able to agree anything substantive with the EU for a very long time. Which is hardly surprising seeing as it can't even agree internally as to what to propose.

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> Are there any options that can avoid this?


Yes, ideally no Brexit at all. Or an "off the shelf" Norway style deal.

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> On a personal level I would love to see Brexit halted, but you would have to be monumentally short-sighted to risk no deal in pursuit of that dream.

May's no deal bluff has effectively been called, her problem is her hardliners and she's switching to threatening no brexit. It could still happen by accident or a power grab but it looks very unlikely in March. Whether it happens in summer is less certain.

> We've got a deal that allows for an orderly transition, lets end the uncertainty and get on with it so that we can all start forward planning,

May's deal offers us an orderly transition to a decade of torturous and humiliating negotiations that will deliver nothing of value while we bleed from a thousand little cuts. Arguably better than a bullet to the head of you can maintain both hope and sanity. I for one will be looking for a new place to start again.

Jk

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to timjones:

> If our wish is now to remain then accepting EU rules with no input into the legislative process would appear to be an absurd option.

Of course it's absurd from a rational perspective, but it would allow us to say to the Brexiteers, "We've left the EU which is what you voted for. Now just f*** off", while suffering the least damaging Brexit possible.

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Something like Norway.

Norway doesn't fix the Irish border infrastructure problem and they'd veto the UK joining EFTA anyway. Also it's insane. Less so than some plans but still deeply counterproductive and pointless.

Jk

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> Norway doesn't fix the Irish border infrastructure problem.

Does it not mean staying in the single market and the customs union? (if not, then that is what I mean rather than "Norway"!)

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

Norway has a customs border with EU neighbours. CU and SM solves our business issues short term but leaves them vulnerable longer term. Better than other brexits mind.

I can't get excited about the prospect of making the EU the undemocratic institution (from a UK perspective) brexiters claim it is by choosing to cede our seats in its institutions. When this looks like the good option we should pause to take stock!

Jk

Post edited at 14:12
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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> I can't get excited about the prospect of making the EU the undemocratic institution (from a UK perspective) brexiters claim it is by choosing to cede our seats in its institutions. When this is the good option we should pause to take stock!.

Absolutely. the only sane option is to remain in the EU>

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Stuart (aka brt) - on 12 Mar 2019

BBC reporting the ERG won't back it. 

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tom_in_edinburgh - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

> Today is the day the when our MP's make the vote, again, on May's proposed (improved?) Brexit deal - see how this plays out. 

It's interesting that if we ask for an extension to Article 50 that goes for more than a couple of months - which is now looking very likely - we need to run the EU Parliament elections.

EU parliament elections would turn into a proxy for a second referendum so why not formally make it one and empower the newly elected UK MEPs to make the remain/soft leave/hard leave decision.    With a complex multi-way decision a committee of delegates might do a better job than a referendum also    MEPs are elected by proportional representation and don't need to be scared of party whips so they may well do a better job of representing the public than MPs.

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Andy Johnson on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Stuart (aka brt):

DUP too. All going a bit pear-shaped for May.

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Oceanrower - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

Interesting interview on LBC. Ben Bradley of the ERG just stated that he'll support the May deal.

Sounds to me like they're running scared. Between the May deal and, probably,  no "No Deal" then they'd support what they've repeatedly said they can't support.

Shelagh Fogarty giving him a bit of a hard time!

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I'm feeling really pretty nervous.  I hope and think she'll fail to get it through, and thus keep the prospect of no Brexit, or at least a very soft Brexit, alive, but there is undoubtedly a chance that she will have successfully blackmailed the ERG nutters into backing down and that we'll all be screwed.

Why would you want that ? If she fails to get it through (which looks very likely now) no deal becomes very likely.

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john arran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Why would you want that ? If she fails to get it through (which looks very likely now) no deal becomes very likely.

The second of May's previously promised votes, after tonight's rerun of her WA deal defeat, will be one tomorrow on ruling out a no-deal exit. If that one passes, it's game on.

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Robert Durran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Why would you want that ? If she fails to get it through (which looks very likely now) no deal becomes very likely.


I doubt it. Parliament will vote against no deal tomorrow and ask for an extension on Thursday. I imagine it will be granted (with strings attached), and we can start thinking seriously about how to get out of this appalling mess. Yes, there is still a risk but the prize of avoiding Brexit altogether via a second referendum is so great that it seems worth it, especially since May's deal is so bad in itself (years of negotiation and infighting from a very weak position).

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Trevers - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to john arran:

> The second of May's previously promised votes, after tonight's rerun of her WA deal defeat, will be one tomorrow on ruling out a no-deal exit. If that one passes, it's game on.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe tomorrow's vote is just about ruling out no-deal at this present juncture, not for good.

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john arran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe tomorrow's vote is just about ruling out no-deal at this present juncture, not for good.

Well given that no parliament can bind a future parliament, that much is self-evident. But ruling out a no-deal now would require evasive action prior to 29th March, which appears to be limited to extending or retracting A50.

That'll do for starters.

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Luke90 on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

Speaking of "cometh the hour", does anybody actually know what sort of time the vote will "cometh" tonight?

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Andy Johnson on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Luke90:

Vote will take place at about 7pm

Post edited at 16:39
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Luke90 on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Andy Johnson:

Thanks, that's been surprisingly difficult to discern amongst the barrage of coverage.

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe tomorrow's vote is just about ruling out no-deal at this present juncture, not for good.

Yes. Likely we rule out no deal for whatever that's worth then try to paint ourselves into a corner with a short extension the EU is unlikely to agree. Then everything changes, May has to choose a radical new way ahead or no deal, pretty much her choice made in the open without full cabinet support assuming the no no dealers are good to their word.

Toss up between 18 months to hold a referendum or the same for an election after all the hot air is spent, I guess election with Labour so weak but with the potential ace of them backing a ref and the ghost of snap17 rattling away in May's cupboard who knows...

Jk

Post edited at 17:01
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wercat on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Northern Star:

> Because it reflects mathematically the narrow margin of victory in the original referendum.

Cyber war continues - with such a narrow margin how can we be sure that intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, in and out of the UK, haven't carried the day and with it us away too??  Democracy Stolen by thieves and traitors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47538021

Post edited at 17:00
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wercat on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Luke90:

if you look in on BBC Parliament occasionally you'll see there are a lot of votes around that time

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Deleted bagger - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Trevers:

> Thanks for the reply. I'll be doing the same, come a second referendum, for remain. Also out of curiosity, what arguments do you think would sway somebody on the fence towards leave? Do you think you'll have a harder task selling Brexit this time round?

Don't think the arguments would be much different. It's all about motivating your voters to get down the Polling  Station. 

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to john arran:

> The second of May's previously promised votes, after tonight's rerun of her WA deal defeat, will be one tomorrow on ruling out a no-deal exit. If that one passes, it's game on.

Lol, the MPs can rule out no deal Brexit all they want, if there is no deal by the 29th of March or no extension, you still end up with no deal.

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I doubt it. Parliament will vote against no deal tomorrow and ask for an extension on Thursday. 

Its not obvious to me that they’ll vote against no deal, it depends how the PM will whip her MPs. And it’s even less obvious that they’ll vote for an extension, that will depend even more on what the PM end up pushing for.

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wbo - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtleet's all remember to give a big thanks to Dave Cameron and his chums Nige, Boris, little lord Fauntleroy et Al for leaving us in this mess in the first place

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Eric9Points - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Lol, the MPs can rule out no deal Brexit all they want, if there is no deal by the 29th of March or no extension, you still end up with no deal.


Well yes, so it'll be an extension and if the PV people play their cards right it'll be in order to organise a referendum on May's deal or stay followed either by invoking the necessary legislation to put her deal finally into law or just to write an email to Jean Claude to tell him that we've changed our minds.

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The Lemming - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

How sad am I?

I have a live feed of the proceedings

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/b6cf0fc5-ae6f-4672-b8e7-d89603fdf018

Post edited at 19:08
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The Norris - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

Sounds like the deal is likely going to be a defeat according to bbc feed tweets.

Is it an acceptable time to start panic buying? 😂

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The Lemming - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

And their off.

No more bets

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jonnie3430 - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Norris:

Nah, this is the first step on the way to 2nd referendum and staying in EU! 

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The Lemming - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

They lost by 149 votes

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JoshOvki on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

So now we are limited to an extension (if the EU accept it), No Deal or No Brexit. I know my preference.

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Oceanrower - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jonnie3430:

> Nah, this is the first step on the way to 2nd referendum and staying in EU! 


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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The Lemming - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

Seems like the Maybot could not shout her way out of this one.

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JoshOvki on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jonnie3430:

2 weeks, is there time to do a referendum in that time?

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jonnie3430 - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to JoshOvki:

Dunno, how long did it take them to overturn the boaty mcboatface vote? 

I'm sure the EU will be sympathetic if we have another referendum *just to check* 

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Oceanrower:

> YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wouldn’t rejoice. The reaction of the PM confirmed my view.

She will table a motion that will make it clear that the government position will be no deal, unless there is a deal.

Effectively, it is now crystal clear that the vote tomorrow can only be used to pursue with no deal, but cannot be used to rule out no-deal.

In fact the vote tomorrow seems pretty useless, it won’t change anything either way it goes, as the government policy will remain to proceed with no deal unless there is a deal.

That means that when MPs vote against no-deal (now looking like a certainty given that it’s a free vote), it won’t bind the government to rule out no deal in any way, and the government position will be against an extension. And that makes an extension unlikely to pass.  Which means no deal, mechanically, on the 29th.

in my view chance of no deal brexit has massively increased after this vote and the PM statement.

Post edited at 19:49
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birdie num num - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

I think the whole question of deal or no deal could be sorted out in parliament tomorrow by Noel Edmonds 

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subtle on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

> That means that when MPs vote against no-deal (now looking like a certainty given that it’s a free vote), it won’t bind the government to rule out no deal in any way, and the government position will be against an extension. And that makes an extension unlikely to pass.  Which means no deal, mechanically, on the 29th.

> in my view chance of no deal brexit has massively increased after this vote and the PM statement.

Isn't it funny how different people interpret things differently - I ie want it as either one step closer to Pailiament revoking Atricle 50, or one step closer to second referendum and revoking Article 50 and putting to bed all this unrest 

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MonkeyPuzzle - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Norris:

> Sounds like the deal is likely going to be a defeat according to bbc feed tweets.

> Is it an acceptable time to start panic buying? 😂

Might work as an excuse to buy one more bike?

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Gordon Stainforth - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

> Isn't it funny how different people interpret things differently - I ie want it as either one step closer to Pailiament revoking Atricle 50, or one step closer to second referendum and revoking Article 50 and putting to bed all this unrest 

It's very hard to unravel your puzzlement, because the former is included in the latter. No one can interpret this clearly, including most MPs. The government (the spokesperson after the vote being the disturbingly inadequate Leader of H of C, Mrs Leadsom) being apparently unable to interpret it in any detailed way either. She, and her government, but more particularly, her ERG colleagues, are desperate to prevent your second larger 'interpretation'. I put that in quotes because it's not an interpretation at all, but a wish. [It happens to be mine, but that's a completely separate matter.]

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MonkeyPuzzle - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jonnie3430:

> Nah, this is the first step on the way to 2nd referendum and staying in EU! 

Isn't someone going to have to propose it in Parliament first? Corbyn clearly has a stammer as he just blarted "general election" again. He's not really got this whole "supporting" a 2nd referendum thing, has he?

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jkarran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to The Lemming:

She'll have another go in a week or so. Still, not close enough to use the result as the excuse for the extension  of A50 which means we're in for something more radical.

Interesting times.

Jk

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john arran - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> Isn't someone going to have to propose it in Parliament first? Corbyn clearly has a stammer as he just blarted "general election" again. He's not really got this whole "supporting" a 2nd referendum thing, has he?

His hollow words will have no effect as nobody needs to listen. Parliament will do its job despite him rather than because of him. In the end, he will be written out of history as an inconsequential sideshow who never managed to garner enough popular support to be genuine PM potential. Shame really, as many of his non-Brexit policies are very much worth supporting.

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HansStuttgart - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to john arran:

> His hollow words will have no effect as nobody needs to listen.

I am not too sure about that. For the EU to accept an extension of the a50 process, the Council will want a convincing justification and a direction of travel. Corbyn committing to working with the government in rewriting the political declaration towards a softer brexit or Corbyn committing to a second referendum could influence the Council's decision.

The important part is what happens next week in the Council. A short extension up to May 23rd, or a long extension of at least a year. I am assuming here that they will be nice and actually want to extend a50.... In case it is the former, there cannot be a second referendum or general election. There is only no deal, no brexit by last minute revocation, the deal as it is, and the deal with a tweaked PD towards a softer brexit.

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

> Isn't it funny how different people interpret things differently - I ie want it as either one step closer to Pailiament revoking Atricle 50, or one step closer to second referendum and revoking Article 50 and putting to bed all this unrest 

I am not interpreting.

I simply observe that it is now clear that the vote tomorrow cannot be used to rule out no deal.

I also observe that the PM could easily have made it so, which would have prompted the ERG to vote her deal, but she did not. This is a very revealing fact which tells me she is unlikely to support an extension.

No deal supporters have now victory in sight, and they can thank the deluded, irresponsible, and  complacent remainers in parliament. Yes there is a (small) majority against no-deal in parliament but what they failed to realise is that unless they can agree on a deal, you have no deal anyway. The ERG, enabled by an incompetent PM, have beautifully exploited those divisions.

Now we can only hope that with their back against the wall, labour and remainers Tories, do the responsible thing end up voting for the deal. That’s maybe too optimistic...

Post edited at 22:56
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Ciro - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> Isn't someone going to have to propose it in Parliament first? Corbyn clearly has a stammer as he just blarted "general election" again. He's not really got this whole "supporting" a 2nd referendum thing, has he?

Labour party policy has been to push for a general election first, and another referendum only if that can't be achieved, since conference last year... What made you think that might have changed?

Any heavy defeat for the government has to be a chance for them to push for their preferred option, if that fails why wouldn't they table their next option?

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RomTheBear on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to jonnie3430:

I can’t believe this idea is still being peddled. This 2nd referendum fantasy seem to be blinding everybody to what’s in front of them. If remainers MPs keep being so fucking dumb no wonder they keep losing.

Post edited at 23:07
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thomasadixon - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to RomTheBear:

Worth noting that even with the ERG she’d still have lost the vote.

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MonkeyPuzzle - on 12 Mar 2019
In reply to Ciro:

> Labour party policy has been to push for a general election first, and another referendum only if that can't be achieved, since conference last year... What made you think that might have changed?

When they couldn't win a vote of confidence or get a GE after her earlier and much heavier defeat. Oh yeah, and when after that vote he said “That’s why, in line with our conference policy, we are committed to also putting forward or supporting an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country.” Am I reading between the lines too much?

> Any heavy defeat for the government has to be a chance for them to push for their preferred option, if that fails why wouldn't they table their next option?

Because there's twelve f*cking days left.

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L Pefa on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to subtle:

The end result of all this will either be the UK staying in the EU or us leaving but everything is as if we haven't.

The reason ?

All the capitalist class in the UK, EU and elsewhere and the Labour aristocracy want it so by hook or by crook they will get it. 

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Oceanrower - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Pefa:

> The end result of all this will either be the UK staying in the EU 

I can but hope, Shona...

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NathanP - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to thomasadixon:

Are you sure? 75 Conservatives voted against the deal - coincidentally the exact number that would have needed to vote for it to turn a losing margin of 149 into a win. Maybe not all 75 were ERG members?

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thomasadixon - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to NathanP:

Dominic Grieve was one of those Tories, and as you say she’d have needed all of them.

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Ciro - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> When they couldn't win a vote of confidence or get a GE after her earlier and much heavier defeat. Oh yeah, and when after that vote he said “That’s why, in line with our conference policy, we are committed to also putting forward or supporting an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country.” Am I reading between the lines too much?

Perhaps you just missed the word "also"?

> Because there's twelve f*cking days left.

Indeed, the reckless running down of the clock is frightening, but that's the Tories doing that. They decided to re-run the "meaningful" vote, any moves to prevent that would have been seen as obstructing the "renegotiation". We're getting down to the business end now.

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MonkeyPuzzle - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Ciro:

> Perhaps you just missed the word "also"?

Also means “as well as”, not “as a last resort”.

> Indeed, the reckless running down of the clock is frightening, but that's the Tories doing that. They decided to re-run the "meaningful" vote, any moves to prevent that would have been seen as obstructing the "renegotiation". We're getting down to the business end now.

He was quite happy to try and obstruct it by pushing for a GE and vote of confidence, just not the last bit of the conference policy. I don’t remember how many times that policy said they would try to force a GE and deliver their own Brexit before putting forward an amendment for a 2nd referendum. It’s almost like it was just in there to appease the membership rather than something they were serious about doing.

Post edited at 08:16
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wercat on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Pefa:

What about Michael Heseltine?

> All the capitalist class in the UK, EU and elsewhere and the Labour aristocracy want it so by hook or by crook they will get it. 

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Gordon Stainforth - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to NathanP:

> Are you sure? 75 Conservatives voted against the deal - coincidentally the exact number that would have needed to vote for it to turn a losing margin of 149 into a win. Maybe not all 75 were ERG members?

The ERG is such a nasty secretive group that it's not known exactly how many members there are, but Wikipedia suggests there are between 56-62 (max).

Post edited at 09:34
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Gordon Stainforth - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to NathanP:

I take it from the instant 'dislike' that my last post received that, even on this forum of habitually open-minded mountaineers and rock climbers, there is at least one who doesn't like the idea of open democracy and favours secret cabals within political parties.

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jkarran - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> It’s almost like it was just in there to appease the membership rather than something they were serious about doing.

That's exactly how it looks, they've spectacularly incompetently managed to alienate both leave and remain Labour voters, I fear they'll be harshly punished for this.

The Conservatives can't help but have noticed Labour's slumping poll ratings now they increasingly obviously need public involvement to break the parliamentary deadlock. Election before summer I reckon and it'll be a bloodbath for an utterly uninspiring and weak Labour party. That they could be lagging the horribly incompetent shower of tory ***** that has brought us to this moment is just mind boggling. Problem is what the hell does either party stand for on the all consuming issue of the day... I can't see either penning a credible manifesto their MPs will stand united behind and their voters flock to.

jk

Post edited at 09:44
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krikoman - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to what the hex:

> What does "Dies Irae Dies Illa" mean?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXyT1vy3BII

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Gordon Stainforth - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

I think all the anti-Brexit parties should, at any general election, work as a single group so that there is only one anti-Brexit candidate in each constituency on the ballot paper. This could be clearly explained in brackets, e.g Joe Bloggs, Lib Dem (anti-Brexit) ... or Independent (pro-Europe) etc. Tough on those who have to step aside. Of course, if there's an independent candidate who is pro-Brexit, they could still stand, but it would either have nothing in brackets or say (pro-Brexit).

Thinking about this a bit further, I think every candidate, including Conservative and Labour, should indicate in brackets whether they are pro-Europe or pro-Brexit.

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jkarran - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Perhaps they should (coincidentally opening a route to the bigger prize of genuine electoral reform) but they wont. There is just too much personal investment from candidates and campaigners, it's their life's work in many cases and too much tribalism. that and there's no way Labour will stand aside or take a clear stand.

jk

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Gordon Stainforth - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

Ummm... you are probably right. Which just deepens my feeling of general despair.

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fifthsunset - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Deleted bagger:

> Prior to that I'd be out there campaigning to get the leave vote out. Old fashioned stuff, knocking on doors, actually talking to people face to face. Did that during referendum campaign, I wouldn't be too put out to do it again. As for if the vote went the other way, I'd have to accept it.

I'm interested why you felt so inspired to campaign. What tangible benefit will leaving the EU bring to people in the UK? 

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jkarran - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Chin up, every generation dreams they'll bear witness to the end of days, hasn't happened yet

This is nothing 20 or 30 years of hard work can't fix.

jk

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Gordon Stainforth - on 13 Mar 2019

, In reply to jkarran:

It's not really 'the end of days' (though this nationalistic movement in the west may lead to it) so much as decline and destruction. Unfortunately I don't anticipate living to the age of 100 to see the process being reversed. It's going to have to be reversed very quickly or the country's in for a very long period of unpleasantness/lower quality of life.

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jkarran - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> It's not really 'the end of days' (though this nationalistic movement in the west may lead to it) so much as decline and destruction.

Oh I know, just trying to see the brighter side of things for once. We've a long way to go yet before we know what the future looks like.

jk

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subtle on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> Oh I know, just trying to see the brighter side of things for once. We've a long way to go yet before we know what the future looks like.

Do we ever know what the future looks like -its in the future afterall  

Still squabbling about what/any amendments to today's vote will be, and whether a "free" vote is indeed a free vote due to amendments etc I see - hopefully clarity over no deal off the table tonight then only how long to seek an extension for, or negotiate with EU on how long they will offer us an extension for so we can try (again) to sort out this awful mess we are in, sigh

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Martin W on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to jkarran:

> Chin up, every generation dreams they'll bear witness to the end of days, hasn't happened yet

> This is nothing 20 or 30 years of hard work can't fix.

I've already been working hard for forty-odd years and had been hoping to look forward to a reasonably comfortable retirement.  Not to having the value of my pension hole below the waterline by a bunch of swivel-eyed loons (can't believe I've just borrowed a phrase originally coined by Call Me Dave).

(And I know you weren't being entirely serious, by the way.)

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HansStuttgart - on 13 Mar 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

The independent should play all or nothing:

Umunna directly against Corbyn in Islington North

Soubry directly against May in Maidenhead

etc.

Would be nice if they can break the safe seats....

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