UKH

I worry that coronavirus is providing an opportunity for a hard Brexit.

There seems to have been an enthusiasm not to defer the deadline, with a cabinet where commitment to Brexit is an essential requirement (so no one to raise concern). David Davis thinks coronavirus will make  a hard Brexit easier to manage. the debacle over participation in EU initiatives (much more concerted than a missed email), the contracts going to pro Brexit companies, a leader of the opposition trying to score retrospective points rather than look forward. The (rest of the) world will be looking at more local trade after this I think.

If we don't watch it we'll have an even harder landing at the end of the year...

(and remember, the government has a skilled PR team deeply committed to Brexit, who  so  far seem to have made little positive contribution  to the public health emergency, and indeed probably see the distraction as useful).

Doris would appear to be using the coronavirus crisis as a cover for the hardest of Brexits. Which will be utterly disastrous for the country after the economic hit we are currently taking.

The best thing is to cancel Brexit.

Andy F

I hope what is happening is that they are putting on a show for the morons and they are waiting until public opinion turns in the face of mounting deaths before announcing they will defer Brexit.  At which point the tame press will praise them for making tough decisions and putting the country first.

But they might just be thick enough to chuck Brexit on top of a pandemic.  It's hard to tell.

I don't think it's hard to tell at all!

However, a complicating factor might be the state of EU itself - even as a Europhile I don't see much sign of a coordinated response (maybe someone could help me out here) and how the EU start cleaning up the financial mess is going to be a potential flashpoint. Germany and France baling out Italy and Spain; tricky.

The main reason there is little coordinated response is that healthcare is a competence for the member states. At the points where healthcare touches upon EU commission competence, there the EU coordinates, e.g. common procurement of medical supplies. EU also tries to keep crossborder trade flows moving as before. The solidarity stuff with taking in patients is organized on a country to country basis.

The finances will involve a lot of arguments. I think people are very slowly accepting that the German, Dutch, etc are going to do some form of bailout. (bailout is a bad word, btw, it is better to think of it as investments for the future. The northern countries will also benefit if the southern countries recover faster) The fight will be about the amount of conditions. So how much bonds are possible and how much common fiscal policy will be involved.

I think the UK (to specify: most people in the UK including a large section of remainers) will see all outcomes as some form of vindication for brexit. If the EU won't find a good solution it will be "they're useless in a crisis, we're better of out" and if we get bonds and common fiscal policy it will be "continuing integration, US of Europe, it's good we got out while we could." Maybe I am being too negative here, but who in Britain would be willing to increase taxes to help Italy and Spain?

The taxes are going to rise as a result of COVID 19.

Further negative impact on the economy as a result of Brexshit will be disastrous.

Stop Brexit now.

Andy F

Agreed.

Yep. They are.

For the avoidance of doubt - absolutely.

There won't be anything to Brexit from at the current rate. Italy and Spain are financially stuffed. The other 25 have no desire to print covid bonds to bail out all their existing debt, they are already accruing enough debt nationally themselves. At the last meeting they dodged the topic, as no one is willing to listen to reality just now, obviously more immediate concerns in their respective countries to focus on. 

Being ideologically extreme doesnt mean someone is thick.

Plus being my normal cynical self I can see this being the ideal scenario. They can blame the entire shitshow on the epidemic and say how brexit would have been fine without it. Indeed brexit saved it from being worse. Honest guv. Remember these are people whose relationship with the truth is somewhat flexible.

"Corona shows that international supply chains are a liability. We should focus on British industry." will also be a danger. It takes a brave politician to counter that one.

You could apply the same line to vw plants across Europe, whilst many have shut because of quarantine rules, they were running out of parts any way. Now vw is spending a fortune monthly, with no production and sales coming through. 

For someone who has been begging for closed borders for the last three months, you'll get your wish in nine months time!

Amazing that EU countries closed land borders to Italy where the UK did nothing about travel to Italy or checking people coming back from Italy.  It looked like they actually wanted to get the virus seeded in the UK so they could 'get it done'.

Pritti Patel has a ton of people making sure that EU citizen health workers get the message they aren't welcome and nobody at all trying to quarantine or stop people infected with corona virus.   

The Tory version of 'taking control of our borders' is surreal.

Once this is over and the bodies are counted support for Scottish Independence is going to jump up about 20 points.

I have to admire your concentration on the priorities.

Talking of hard landings, Brexiters voting to leave the EU fly to the EU, get stuck in the EU and can't get a flight back from the EU by a government that told them to leave the EU.

There are stars collapsing into black holes on the periphery of universe that you would interpret as clear evidence of the wisdom of, and growing support for, the independence vote. 

Except The Scottish governments pandemic response seems even worse than Westminster's. No letters to the most vulnerable promising priority food deliveries (unlike in England). No extra emergency hospitals being built (unlike England and Wales). And NHS Scotland following exactly the same dangerously inadequate PPE guidelines as England in direct contravention of WHO, CDC and ECDC guidance.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/novel-coronavirus-...

Stichtplate - *Puts coin in the slot*

Rest of forum - *Awaits predictable frothing at the mouth response from T_in_E*

If you read the Express or Tele. then you'll see that this sort of Brexit redicivicism is exactly what they fear...  Britain should leave as there's going to be unleashed a Brexit bounce from massive trade increases with the USA, China and India - so tax cuts all round

Interesting choice of things to criticise the Scottish government, the first is something of very, very debatable benefit, the second is simply untrue.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/30/sec-glasgow-open-coronaviru...

Except we can't, it's irreversibly done. We can delay our negotiated retreat, that might be a (very!) good idea but there is no way back anymore. 

Jk

Also, like Wales, the Scottish government has added specific extra funded protections and were arguing for an earlier lockdown. They have better, faster action on organisation for testing of health staff and PPE logistics than England.

Yes, when you are committed to a process it is easy to get caught up in it...particularly if you are surrounded by people of a similar view. We've all (perhaps) done something like this with navigation.

Not having counter views shows a lack of wisdom rather than intelligence, and yes coronavirus will be a great wheeze to blame for the woes of Brexit.

(and for those still entused with their antieuropeanism, if Europe goes down, isolating ourselves won't save us from the undertow)

I thought the EU has said that they would welcome us back, should or when we change our minds.

Even if they would (and on what terms) it remains politically impossible here for at least another electoral cycle.

jk

The first may be of debatable value to you but my Welsh father in law is miffed to be missing out.

Apologies, I was wrong on the second point.

IMHO the third is crucial.

The third accusation is at worst doing as badly as the UK government. However, I would disagree with that point - for example the scottish government has decided to halt construction work. The UK government has decided those people should continue working and apparently is happy to believe the construction business when it says "no worries, we can socially distance on site". The unions (and common sense), say that isn't possible. It's not hard to think of jobs on site that require close co-operation - from putting up scaffolding to labouring materials around the site. In addition, whilst safety has improved out of sight over the years, there are still 54000 accidents a year which puts the construction industry well ahead of all-industry statistics in terms of taking up health service resource that would be better used preparing for the tsunami that's coming.

Not content with simply failing to follow that lead, the UK government is actually trying to put pressure on the Scottish government to reverse it's decision.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-must-justify-scots-c...

Not sure if this is what you're asking for

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response_e...