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Brexit endgame

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 Andy Johnson 16 Oct 2020

Statement from Boris Johnson:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/oct/16/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-local-restrictions-lockdown-tier-2-covid-brexit-latest-updates?page=with:block-5f8982068f087cfbdaeb1507#block-5f8982068f087cfbdaeb1507

Looks like they're going for an "Australia style" agreement - ie no agreement at all.

Wonderful. Just wonderful. Farage must be so pleased.

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 mondite 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Andy Johnson:

but, but,but wasnt it project fear that a no deal would happen and we would get a great deal? It was in the oven and everything.

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 Eric9Points 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Andy Johnson:

As I understand it, almost everything has been agreed and they're now at the public willy waving stage where they appear to take things to the last minute in order to look tough to their respective supporters.

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 cb294 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Eric9Points:

> As I understand it, almost everything has been agreed and they're now at the public willy waving stage where they appear to take things to the last minute in order to look tough to their respective supporters.

Don't think so. No ECJ supervision (as the arbitrator of the SM), no anti dumping /state aid protection, no single market access.

Fish is emotionally charged but irrelevant and therefore useful for posturing and point scoring, but not the single market integrity stuff.

The latter is dead serious, especially when dealing with a government that signs legally binding treaties in bad faith, only to break them in a "specific and limited sense" through domestic legislation a few months later. Of course you insist on the established dispute resolution mechanism.

I still hope and assume that there will be a deal of some form, but that will entirely be on the EU's terms in the core area of market access.

CB

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 Eric9Points 16 Oct 2020
In reply to cb294:

As I understand it, tweets from various UK pundits, the important stuff has been settled or is very close to being settled.

It's not what the papers are leading on, they're reporting on the record stuff from the politicians but that seems to be where we are.  Whatever, what will be will be.

Post edited at 13:35
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 cb294 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Eric9Points:

> As I understand it, tweets from various UK pundits, the important stuff has been settled or is very close to being settled.

Let's hope so, but I remain doubtful.

CB

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 HardenClimber 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Andy Johnson:

I do wonder if that is why they have delayed some of the covid decisions / announcements, to give cover for the Brexit Omnishambles. It certainly feels like the Covid tiers announcement was to distract from the agriculture / food bills....

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 jkarran 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Eric9Points:

> As I understand it, almost everything has been agreed and they're now at the public willy waving stage where they appear to take things to the last minute in order to look tough to their respective supporters.

I'll take a 50p bet neither side blinks and nothing gets signed. Johnson is nothing without his shiny sovereign brexit, if he accepts significant conditions he won't hold his lunatic bluekip party together even with covid. The EU won't compromise the single market for Britain. Cue total consumer then market chaos in Jan, an emergency relief deal (some sort of return to the expired 'extension') in Feb and more willy waving stalemate well into the 2020s.

jk

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 Rob Parsons 16 Oct 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> I'll take a 50p bet neither side blinks and nothing gets signed.

50p!? That's really putting your money where your mouth is!

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 Alyson30 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Eric9Points:

> As I understand it, almost everything has been agreed and they're now at the public willy waving stage where they appear to take things to the last minute in order to look tough to their respective supporters.

The reality is that any deal, if any, will be of very marginal value because of UK red lines.

Basically it doesn't matter that much at this point whether there is a deal or not, the chance of getting a proper trading relationship has gone a long time ago.

The ship has sailed a long time ago, basically.
It was obvious since Boris was elected, but hey, I guess the penny has to drop at some point.

Post edited at 14:58
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 Eric9Points 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Alyson30:

I assume that much of the willy waving is to ensure that at the end when they have to admit that the red lines have been crossed, by both sides, they will have an excuse to shut up the critics. "Yes but if we hadn't agreed to x,y,z then the nasty Brits/Europeans would have stymied the entire deal..".

I could be wrong but we'll see.

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In reply to Alyson30:

> It was obvious since Boris was elected, but hey, I guess the penny has to drop at some point.

It looks as though the penny has stuck for half the UK population, and much of the rest are apathetic in that peculiarly British way.

How does one unwash brains? I think this is the burning question of our times.

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In reply to Rob Parsons:

> 50p!? That's really putting your money where your mouth is!

Aye - he should make it €0.5 if he wants to be seen risking real money.

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In reply to jkarran:

> I'll take a 50p bet

Is that a Brexit 'commemorative' 50p coin...?

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In reply to Eric9Points:

> I could be wrong but we'll see.

"We couldnt get a deal because Corbyn".

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 Naechi 16 Oct 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> > I could be wrong but we'll see.

> "We couldnt get a deal because Corbyn".

I think you'll find it's of course because Gordon Brown sold all the gold...

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 Mark Bannan 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Alyson30:

> Basically it doesn't matter that much at this point whether there is a deal or not, the chance of getting a proper trading relationship has gone a long time ago.

I don't quite agree on this. The recent calamitously stupid acts of parliament, reneging on previous promises to the EU (probably deliberately) have scuppered a deal. Before this massive Tory clusterf*ck, I had some optimism of an agreement in principle before the end of 2020. Obviously, a trade deal would take many years (the Japanese made a trade deal with the EU recently and that took 8 years and their situation was less complex than that of the UK). 

What's really happening is that the wretched Tory party are deliberately engineering a no deal in order to deregulate the economy and instigate a major transfer of income and wealth from ordinary folk to their own already bulging pockets (and those of their tax dodging, over-paid millionaire scamming mates). Huge job losses, massive public spending cuts, rising prices and lower quality of goods and services will affect the many, not the few in the evil Tory cartel at the top.

The Brexit referendum should never have happened. Why do we elect politicians only for them to delegate their duty and put a referendum to the people about an issue that most voters have little or no understanding. That mega-prick Cameron played political football with this country's future and lost and the other mega-prick Bojo must love being the new Robin Hood in reverse, robbing the poor to give to the already rich.

And I haven't even managed to get started on the rights of EU nationals residing here!

Honestly, what a total shitstorm! Seems Covid has been the perfect excuse to bury bad news.

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 wercat 16 Oct 2020
In reply to cb294:

> I still hope and assume that there will be a deal of some form

Oh there is form all right.  This band of criminals has form and a record longer than my arm

I hope someone Deals with those with Form

Post edited at 20:00
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 HansStuttgart 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Andy Johnson:

Why endgame? It will go on for decades...

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 Alyson30 16 Oct 2020
In reply to Eric9Points:

> I assume that much of the willy waving is to ensure that at the end when they have to admit that the red lines have been crossed, by both sides, they will have an excuse to shut up the critics. "Yes but if we hadn't agreed to x,y,z then the nasty Brits/Europeans would have stymied the entire deal..".

Yes it is all about saving faces on the U.K. side but that is quite missing the point. The point is that any deal, if there is any, will be quite thin and marginal.

Post edited at 22:25
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 jkarran 16 Oct 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> Is that a Brexit 'commemorative' 50p coin...?

I'd genuinely blocked out how laughable this got! Britain's midlife crisis would be hilarious if I didn't have to live through it.

jk

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In reply to Andy Johnson:

It is hard to read.

My take is the balance of power has shifted in the last few weeks as it becomes increasingly clear Trump will not get re-elected.  Brexiteers are far too close to Trump and Trump donors and Biden is not going to do them any favours.  He may well pursue Obama policy and prioritise a US-EU trade deal.  He certainly won't take any sh*t about the Irish border because the US Irish vote is important to the Democrats.

Either the Tories are completely crazy and willing to end up losing the EU without quickly substituting the US or they are posturing so they look less like traitors to the dickheads who voted for Brexit when they climb down.

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