UKH

Blackburn has been the centre of much Covid talk, so had a look at the dashboard:

76% single jabbed 62% double - waay lower than national average.

Current case rate of 159 - waaaay lower than UK average of 270

Case rate whole pandemic = 17k, waaaaaay higher than national average

I guess it must be infection acquired immunity kicking in. I know they did lots of testing, but I reckon loads wouldn’t have been tested, especially earlier on, so the total cases could be even higher. Great that their rate is low and getting lower, but when people loose their immunity things could get worse. 
Anyway, for an area so badly hit, some good signs. 

How do you know people are going to lose their immunity?

‘People lose their immunity..’ ???

Yes.  People who have acquired immunity through having caught it will start to lose some (most of) their immunity at some point.  The North West had a big Covid wave last Oct/Nov, so those that caught Covid then but have not had the jab must surely start to lose some immunity at some point?  So having low Covid rates now could lead them into a false sense of security.

What do you mean by immunity? Anti bodies? T-cells? 

Sounds like total pony to me old boy?

Jesus I’m not that clever. I simply mean the ability to resist infection.

I’m quite simply saying that Blackburn has had sky high total Covid cases, low jabbing numbers, yet currently has low case numbers.  My reckoning is this is most likely due to the fact that so many people have had Covid that herd immunity might be happening. But immunity doesn’t last forever.  Or am I wrong?

What?

Nothing lasts forever.

Immunity also isn't binary, and I think the important bit is going to be how fast protection from serious illness fades compared to how fast protection from symptomatic infection fades.

Good reasons to think protection from serious illness will fade more slowly, as long as that happens the fade in protection from symptomatic infection is hopefully going to become much less important (except for those who have no antibodies...).

Edit to add a word above - "is hopefully going..."

Currently far from clear how fast any of the protection is fading.  There are studies of antibody reduction over time, but they don't directly correspond to an equal fade in immunity.

In to the land of the unknown.

Work by Jesse Bloom at the university of Washington in Seattle seems to indicate that immunity to COVID falls off due to the continual emergance of escape variants.

New scientist 28 july 2021

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133453-400-uk-conditions-are-ideal...

“In to the land of the unknown.”

So you’ve been to Blackburn then

Thanks for your thoughts. Blackburn will be an interesting area to watch given its high total cases and lower than average jabbing. Hope the current low case rate doesn’t make folk go ‘I don’t need jabbed’, lots of high risk factors in Blackburn. 

I think I went through on a narrowboat on the L&L canal 30 odd years ago...   

Indeed; unless/until the cases and hospitalisation data we get is split according to vaccination status it's going to get very much harder to figure stuff out from the data.  I noticed parts of the US are now releasing cases data by vaccine status and it makes for some rather compelling - if obvious - plots. 

People are rapidly running out of time to get a vaccine; especially given that it takes time for protection to develop after each dose.  If I was I a high risk category or area and was unvaccinated, if I had a change of heart I think I'd be asking for my first dose ASAP and my second dose 4 weeks later - whilst that offers less protection in the long run than an 8-week gap, it offers more protection in the short term.  Live to fight another day and all that.

I wonder why Blackburn has struggled to keep cases down, and how much of that is due to a higher proportion of people who don't take the vaccine seriously and perhaps didn't take restrictions seriously? I know a Doctor in Manchester who told me that it is generally known in the NHS that in a few places in the greater area just... people didn't follow restrictions too well. I dunno how true that is though.

Roxy Music ('Same Old Scene')

Roxy Music covered 'Jealous Guy' by John Lennon. Lennon wrote:

'Four thousand holes in Blackburn, Lancashire'

Uncanny?

Added a plot for you on this... https://www.ukhillwalking.com/forums/off_belay/friday_night_covid_plotting_38-...

It’s true. I’ve given loads of examples over the last 16 months or so. Only examples, but I think they paint a picture. It’s never just been down to overcrowded housing, types of jobs etc. They were factors, but cultural factors came into it as well. Regarding vaccines: vaccination staff have bent over backwards, working closely with people living in those communities, but still low take up.