BetThread - Lockdown 2.

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 David Alcock 28 Oct 2020

Friday week? 

Too late, as ever, but I'd put my money on that being the latest that this inept government will keep dragging their heels to. 

It's looks like it's going to be a grim winter. Many of us hate this season at the best of times, but seeing family is a perk. Looks like that's off the cards the way things are going.

Keep safe all. 

12
 wintertree 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Based on how things look right now, December 3rd.

Everything can change in the next month.

Re: winter; this is the tail end of a solar minimum.  Some of my most vivid memories are from the tail end of the last solar minimum when we had two epic winters driven by persistent Omega blocks.  Fond memories of driving up to Salter’s Gate in my trusty 306 when it was -15oC outside and climbing Roseberry Topping by the most direct route to be met with a giant cornice on a day when the mercury got as high as -17 oC.

If we get a split polar vortex and a persistent omega block this year it’s basically 50/50 if we get the wet/warm side or the epic winter side.  We’re due a break... 

OP David Alcock 29 Oct 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3. Yeah, a proper snowed-in winter might make a locked-in winter feel better.

The first one was pretty ghastly for me, as I didn't see my kids for eleven weeks. But all the birds returned to the city. That was nice.

I think we needed one three weeks ago, but here we are again. It feels like that time in March when I absent-mindedly got onto a train to discover it was full of Gold Cup pissheads.

Had a mild breathless and feverish bug for two or three days, and thought nothing of it. Except breathing is still painful, especially above my heart. 

I want to get out into the mountains, be free of care, but I'm not underestimating this bug. 

 Misha 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I’d put money on the last two weeks of November. Assuming the Welsh lockdown works, which it should do, cases there should drop off towards the end of next week, followed by hospital admissions early the following week (the latter are far more reliable data). Once it’s clear that there’s been a positive impact and Wales has not in fact been plunged into poverty after two weeks, the pressure for England to follow would be intense. Of course half the Cabinet and the Tory party would be up in arms...

4
 Blunderbuss 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Latest React study from ICL suggests it needs to be sooner rather than later:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidl...

1
 tom r 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Total guess but maybe around 12 November. I think scientifically and politically the government have screwed up not having a 2-3 week firebreak now. I think a lot of people were expecting one and would have grudgingly accepted it. In a few weeks time people might be even less accepting of one. It's scary that even quite sensible people I know are getting slack with following the rules.

Post edited at 09:52
2
 jkarran 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> Friday week? 

I suspect within two weeks there will be a Tier4 for the hot-spots with hospital/service stress and much of the country will be bumped to Tier2, much of the north Tier3. They'll cling to that system for bit longer, there's lots of pressure from the backbenches and a real desire not to be seen to be merely following Labour and the other nations here. Hope that the tiered approach and further tinkering will work (it will to a degree) could easily delay the lockdown decision by weeks greatly exacerbating the problem.

I'm not sure if it'll be as effective this time either: partly winter, partly a summer of corrosive campaigning, partly eroded authority and trust, partly significant reservoirs of infection that won't respond to 'lockdown' in the universities and schools (assuming schools remain open since the autumn half term opportunity is missed). Those will continue to bleed back into the community from schools then in a way we didn't see in Summer as restrictions ease on students. This isn't their fault, they can't go 'home' and they can't isolate effectively in high density shared accommodation.

jk

Post edited at 10:55
 Ian W 29 Oct 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss: And Misha:

> Latest React study from ICL suggests it needs to be sooner rather than later:

These things are always "the sooner the better", but politically the problem is that up to and including this morning, the government were trying to avoid the blanket national lockdowns of other countries (Robert Jenrick on the Beeb; i'm sure he's on more often than the weather forecasters), because after they challenged Keir Starmer to say what labour would do and Labour came up with a firebreak style 2 or 3 week period (as in wales), they will find it politically very very difficult to admit that their way was wrong, and change to that advocated by the labour party. Again, their attempt at deflection and distraction has backfired and painted them into a political corner, and the ones to suffer again will be the public.

1
OP David Alcock 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

The various mid-November guesses fit well - my forecasts for 'at the latest' have consistently been a week early. I always underestimate the dithering factor!

The tier system is a joke. I've been in Sheffield for a week, and had no social interaction (from sense of personal responsibility and lack of need). Now I'm back home in a tier 1 area, and the various first two degrees of separation run into the thousands - I have kids, various schools, jobs, mates, girlfriends, their mum is another teacher, their stepdad is a rule of 16 (66?) social guy, etc, etc. All it breeds is resentment, contempt, and a sod it all attitude.

I just don't see how we have a choice now. Groundhog day... 

Post edited at 13:01
 Blunderbuss 29 Oct 2020
In reply to Ian W:

> And Misha:

> These things are always "the sooner the better", but politically the problem is that up to and including this morning, the government were trying to avoid the blanket national lockdowns of other countries (Robert Jenrick on the Beeb; i'm sure he's on more often than the weather forecasters), because after they challenged Keir Starmer to say what labour would do and Labour came up with a firebreak style 2 or 3 week period (as in wales), they will find it politically very very difficult to admit that their way was wrong, and change to that advocated by the labour party. Again, their attempt at deflection and distraction has backfired and painted them into a political corner, and the ones to suffer again will be the public.

Yep, completely agree with this... 

1
 Offwidth 29 Oct 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

Polls changed by about 10% towards public support of lockdowns in just a few weeks.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/majority-britons-support-local-coron...

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/less-half-britons-support-second-com...

My guess is a U turn by Nov 12th, especially given the new study linked above that shows the R rate is highest in the south. I predict a face saving fudge: circuit breaker for most of the UK and lesser restrictions in a few regions with lower R and low cases.

 marsbar 29 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I don't know about date, but I predict they will announce it publicly after schools have gone home on a Friday for maximum inconvenience.   

 richprideaux 29 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

> Once it’s clear that there’s been a positive impact and Wales has not in fact been plunged into poverty after two weeks,

Worth noting that it's not 2 weeks for the majority of the Welsh population - strict local lockdowns have been in operation since the beginning of October.

Any business that relied on people travelling between counties has been absolutely shagged, and the economic impact of that will be difficult to separate from that of the Circuit Breaker.

It's grim in Wales, economically speaking.

OP David Alcock 30 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Thanks all for your comments. It feels that we have to be resigned to a long winter. My mum's 72 and still working in the pulmonary wards. I doubt we'll all be together this year. Not seen her since last Christmas. Anyway, not meaning to be gloomy. But, yeah, I am.

 Misha 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Ian W:

Although may people would respect them more if they said, fair enough, we were wrong, the facts have changed so we have changed our mind. But that's not how politics works unfortunately.

 Misha 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Yeah, R of almost 3 in London, that's crazy! It was about that back in March.

In reply to David Alcock:

There are 2 schools of thought in my house. 

I think mid November which will hopefully suppress the virus sufficiently to allow a more relaxed Xmas. Good old Johnson, the man who saved Xmas (by sacrificing lives unnecessarily).

She who is always correct thinks January as a squirrel to detract from the consequences of Brexit. 

Whilst in a way Kier Starmer was right to push for a circuit break, this has cost lives. KS is very aware of his opponents character and knew that in suggesting it Johnson would refuse to do so. 

8
 Dr.S at work 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Presley Whippet:

What’s KS to do? Advocate a better policy, or keep quiet? His job is to be the opposition, merely supporting the flailing government would put him in a bit of a Clegg position come the next election 

 Yanis Nayu 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Presley Whippet:

I knew it wouldn’t be long before Starmer got the blame for talking sense. 

In reply to Dr.S at work and Yanis

KS did the right thing, the fault lies firmly with Johnson. 

If I were KS it would keep me awake at night that doing the right thing and doing my job would cost lives due to the PMs character faults. But what to do? 

4
 Michael Hood 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Presley Whippet:

It's a good illustration (unfortunately) of the major problem with British politics, the inability to accept another party's suggestion if it turns out to be better.

I remember (decades ago!) when the Liberal party (might have already been lib Dems) had the best ideas in some policy areas, but as soon as they opened their mouths it was politically dead because there was no way either Labour or the Tories could say "we've looked into that and it's an improvement so we're going to adopt it".

This political "rejectionist" style is crazy. Can you imagine it happening in business "I'm not going to use this better way because it was suggested by X" - companies that do that would rapidly disappear.

 wintertree 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> What’s KS to do? 

(sarcasm)

State that his policy is to slowly tweak at the edges of ever changing rules whilst cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue their inexorable rise until well after the point of no return?

The problem is, if Johnson can’t then do that, does he do more or less instead?

Post edited at 08:25
 Misha 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Presley Whippet:

You are both right. Late Nov / early Dec for 2-3 weeks to save Xmas AND 2-3 weeks in Jan to deal with the impact of Xmas. It will be the same too little too late then. We’d probably need to lock down in early Jan but the numbers will be lower than critical. Then the numbers will get critical by mid Jan and they’ll have to do it anyway.

Why can’t they actually have a realistic plan and be honest about it? Publish a strategy, with approximate trigger points for switching restrictions on/off at the various levels. Indicate potential timing and duration of any lockdowns. People and businesses could plan for that then. Of course it can’t be precise as the plan will have to be tweaked.

 jkarran 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

> You are both right. Late Nov / early Dec for 2-3 weeks to save Xmas AND 2-3 weeks in Jan to deal with the impact of Xmas. It will be the same too little too late then. We’d probably need to lock down in early Jan but the numbers will be lower than critical. Then the numbers will get critical by mid Jan and they’ll have to do it anyway.

The post Christmas spike, if we have anything like a traditional Christmas which requires quite a low caseload late Dec' won't really start to look alarming until Late Feb' (from a national statistics perspective, obviously for those who kill granny reality bites sooner). Maybe a couple of weeks earlier than that if it's predominantly driven by returning students.

I can't see it providing cover for the Jan' 2nd brexit meltdown.

> Why can’t they actually have a realistic plan and be honest about it? Publish a strategy, with approximate trigger points for switching restrictions on/off at the various levels...

We have a deliberately incompetent/hollowed-out populist government, heading a radicalised party, beholden to donors and press whose interests don't align with the electorate's.

A workable and articulated strategy is far too much to hope for. Set the bar realistically, we should probably be thankful they haven't settled on the "don't look for Russians" approach to covid.

jk

Post edited at 13:30
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OP David Alcock 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

A plan? A strategy? God, you do ask for a lot!  

In reply to David Alcock:

This graph from independent SAGE is quite interesting and somewhat encouraging.  You can clearly see the delayed effect of the circuit breaker in Northern Ireland, that Scotland might just manage to scrape by without a circuit breaker and that the first version of the tier system in England has had an effect but not a large enough one.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1322180973300240388/photo/1

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Looking at that it seems the NI circuit breaker had an effect very quickly, Wales hasn't yet but only been going for less than a week.

Seems to show that in England the rule of 6, 10pm curfew and the tier system might have slowed down the rise but is not enough to reverse it and stronger measures are going to be needed soon.

 Misha 30 Oct 2020
In reply to jkarran:

Infection to hospital for those who need it is typically 2-3 weeks so I’d expect hospital admissions to shoot up w/c 11 Jan. 

 Andy Hardy 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

Just after we've ejected all those pesky EU nationals from the NHS. 🙄

Deep. Joy.

3
 jkarran 30 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

> Infection to hospital for those who need it is typically 2-3 weeks so I’d expect hospital admissions to shoot up w/c 11 Jan. 

Yes but shooting up from a low level, even if the R for the holiday period is 4 the result won't be a patch on what we'll go through in the next few weeks. If the covid levels aren't low there's no way even a government this bad will sanction a normal Christmas. I hope.

Jk

 mik82 30 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I think England will end up being forced into it, maybe within 2 weeks. At this point deaths will be above 500/day and there'll be a similar number of people in hospital to the April peak. They're trying to string things out with these local tiers and will probably go to a tier 4 first.  This is mirroring what happened in France and wasn't effective enough. 

It's grim, and it's not even winter yet.

OP David Alcock 31 Oct 2020

Maybe I got it more-or-less right for once.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/save-christmas-with-covid-loc...

Now come all the questions that arise in complicated families: who holes-up with who? I imagine tomorrow will be a long telephone day... 

Post edited at 03:10
 rurp 31 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I’ve just worked it out! 
 

BoJo locks down after the England six nations game. Happens every time...
 

Some PM’s would be concerned about other  ‘boffin girly swot science stuff’ but not Boris. With his Churchillian can do attitude it’s get the talking done on the rugby field and lockdown afterwards.

Shame about the extra 100000 deaths from this Rugby first approach. I guess next time we will look for a different PM skil set. 

2
 summo 31 Oct 2020
In reply to rurp:

It's that or a day at the races. 

The main thing is to give at least a weeks warning, so folk can all rush out and have extra social contact before the lock down starts. 

 Offwidth 31 Oct 2020
In reply to summo:

Or get locked down somewhere a bit nicer.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54742795

 Misha 31 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Guess we’ll find out at 4pm today. Potentially as soon as Monday and certainly within the next week. Hopefully my prediction of later in November will be proved wrong as it’s needed ASAP. 

 Doug 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

seems they can't even manage to annouce the time of a press conference correctly, maybe 5 O'clock ?

 Misha 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Doug:

Yeah they need the extra hour to form a strategy for the next 6 months. 

 jkarran 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

That's barely even time to test whether Raab's hints or Johnson's leak polled better.

Honestly I'm surprised, I expected another round of tinkering and delay. Someone's put the wind up them but I guess they own the carnage this time around having clearly chosen not to follow 'the science' when sage said circuit breaker and Sunak said no.

Jk

1
 wintertree 31 Oct 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> That's barely even time to test whether Raab's hints or Johnson's leak polled better.

Does Kuenssberg feel no shame at being the consistent mouthpiece for Cummings’ A/B testing of policy?  

Can I politely suggest this isn’t a sensible way to divine policy in a national crisis?

> Honestly I'm surprised, I expected another round of tinkering and delay. 

Yes, I thought we’d have ever more tweaking in a Zeno’s paradox until real panic hit at the end of next month.  Someone must have got through to them...  By leaking a bunch of briefing documents to the press so government couldn’t plead ignorance or hindsight post-fact...?

Post edited at 15:05
1
 elsewhere 31 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

The projections today are peaking at up to 4000 deaths per day over a couple of months which works out at 100,000-200,000 dead. Four times worse than first peak. If that happens Johnson deserves to be shot for cowardice and dereliction of duty. The least Churchillian PM ever.

Post edited at 15:36
4
 Blunderbuss 31 Oct 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

That the least optimistic of the 4 models tbf....that said even the most optimistic shocked me when I saw it.

He's been left with no choice but to lockdown...should have been done weeks ago though. 

1
 mik82 31 Oct 2020
In reply to jkarran:

I'm surprised too. I thought they'd let it run for a week or two while testing opinions/Tier 4 etc.  It's been forced early, but again too late.

Post edited at 16:57
1
 Misha 31 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

Thursday it is. I thought BoJo’s speech was actually quite good in setting out why this is required. Should have done this weeks ago but better late than never... At least now there may be more compliance as people can see the deaths going up significantly.

What concerns me is T&T won’t be sorted over the next 3 weeks and I’m not convinced there will be widespread rollout of rapid tests any time soon (plus what’s the point of testing without tracking and people then actually self isolating?). 

3
Alyson30 31 Oct 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> It's looks like it's going to be a grim winter.

Probably not the last either.

2
 artif 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Alyson30:

It will be for many!!! 

 Jon Stewart 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Misha:

> Thursday it is. I thought BoJo’s speech was actually quite good in setting out why this is required.

I agree. I was quite impressed by how he explained the rationale and wasn't frothing with hatred for him like I usually am when I hear him speak.

> Should have done this weeks ago but better late than never... At least now there may be more compliance as people can see the deaths going up significantly.

I sympathise with the delay tbh. It probably was the wrong decision, but as you say, it would've been incredibly difficult to sell without such clearly scary data.

> What concerns me is T&T won’t be sorted

I think T&T is really, really hard to get working. It just takes time from starting with symptoms to contact tracing, by which time transmission's already happened - probably mostly in the day or two before you start feeling sick anyway. The false negative rate with the PCR test is high too - 30%? I don't think we should put much faith in T&T, it looks a lot like a total waste of money to me, and just telling people to do it themselves might be roughly as effective. If you've got symptoms, tell everyone you've been in contact with, and if you've got a negative test, it's still probably covid.

1
 climbingpixie 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

> I agree. I was quite impressed by how he explained the rationale and wasn't frothing with hatred for him like I usually am when I hear him speak.

I agree too. I usually refuse to listen to Johnson speak because he annoys me so much. But tonight I switched it on while I was cooking and thought his tone and content were much better than previously, especially the part about why we needed to protect the NHS.

> I sympathise with the delay tbh. It probably was the wrong decision, but as you say, it would've been incredibly difficult to sell without such clearly scary data.

Here I disagree. A leader should be able to lead and to persuade and to take people with him. There was already broad public support (and opposition support) for these measures and yet we've seen a delay because of his inability to confront the more headbanger wing of his party.

2
 wintertree 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

> I agree. I was quite impressed by how he explained the rationale and wasn't frothing with hatred for him like I usually am when I hear him speak.

Yes.  Without acknowledging the gutter filth behind it, he put some effort into demolishing their premise for “let it rip” by giving a clear and accurate overview of the NHS in the weeks ahead should we not do more now.  If he consistently acted with this degree of a briefing, preparation, humility and thoughtfulness he could actually be a good PM.

Edit: Beaten to it by climbingpixie.

Post edited at 20:27
 AJM 31 Oct 2020
In reply to climbingpixie:

Agree x2.

The scientists and then Boris gave a pretty good clear description of the problem and why it was a problem and so on.

But I do think leadership would have been having this briefing weeks ago and having the courage to put forward the same argument on more speculative data. I think he’s taken the easy option by leaving it to a point where you can put together a fairly near-term prediction of exactly how long it is until we pass the first wave and then run out of hospital beds, because now those graphs basically sell themselves. As ever with Boris his desire to be loved means he’s waited until there’s a critical mass already behind him rather than getting out in front of the problem and doing unpopular things.

 Misha 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

Yeah you have a point there, except a lot of people won’t do that. At least if someone phones up to say you must give me your contacts or you must self isolate, people are more likely to do that. Still, we need better financial support for those self isolating and unable to WFH. At least 80% of typical post tax earnings for the self isolation period.

 Misha 31 Oct 2020
In reply to climbingpixie:

Agree but better late than never.

I wonder whether if we did a 2 week fire break in the first half of October say, we’d need another one pre Xmas.

I’m also pretty sure we’ll need another 2 weeks at least in January and probably same again in March. 

Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> That the least optimistic of the 4 models tbf....that said even the most optimistic shocked me when I saw it.

> He's been left with no choice but to lockdown...should have been done weeks ago though. 

Not really. There should have been a coherent mask policy and sensible policies put out, all bars closed etc and we'd be managing this.

The idea was (and I said this back in April..) that a short lockdown would be enough when that was impossible. This was always a 1-2 year event. There was no way to avoid that and the messaging in the US and UK has been incompetent. This needed long term semi-stringent regulations to get the most compliance. All kids wearing masks in schools etc. All bars closed. We should not need second rounds of lock downs. It has been horrendous management of this pandemic.

1
 DenzelLN 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

Only management?

Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to DenzelLN:

That's all you can do. Once it is a global pandemic you can only manage and slow the spread and wait for herd immunity, a vaccine or some fluke of a mutation - almost impossible when this widespread. You won't eradicate it through containment measures if it this widespread. You just cannot get 100% buy in to eradicate it.

You are basically buying time and not overwhelming services.

The fact we have a good 25-40% of the worlds leading nations refusing to socially distance or mask up shows how badly it has been managed. In the US, UK and Europe many still believe it's a hoax. 

We need kids in schools, we cant expect them not to learn for 2 years nor socialize. We had to adapt to a new normal yet we have millions in bars every weekend.. 

Post edited at 21:02
 Blunderbuss 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

I meant at this point in time he had no choice... he couldn't keep putting it off. 

 Billhook 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

It will be interesting to see how the lockdown v2 will work out.  It started off quite well last time.  But long before it was over people more and more people were a travelling to our coast, staying in campers, camping in laybys, renting accommodation etc., but mostly just for 'nice day out' by the sea side.   Lockdowns only work for more than a few weeks with some enforcement.

This is bummer timing for Xmas.  Its internet shopping this year.  After this lockdown the 'non essential' shops are going to have looooong queues to get those, oh so special xmas presents in!

 Jon Stewart 31 Oct 2020
In reply to climbingpixie:

> Here I disagree. A leader should be able to lead and to persuade and to take people with him. There was already broad public support (and opposition support) for these measures and yet we've seen a delay because of his inability to confront the more headbanger wing of his party.

I think maybe his problem was that so much of the "broad public support" was from the 50% of the country that hate the Tories and Brexit, while the people he relies on for political survival are less keen on this policy - "the more headbanger wing of his party". Those people are essentially impervious to evidence-based information along the lines "if you don't do this, it will be bad" so while it would be great if they were "confrontable" I don't see that they are. They have a lot of influence, and they do represent a significant fraction of the public mood.

Being Boris Johnson (i.e. occupying his political position) basically precludes him from exercising the type of leadership that you and I would consider necessary right now - once you lower your expectations, realistically the decisions don't look so bad. At least he totally abandoned a failing strategy before the shit actually hit the fan (probably).

 Jon Stewart 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> Not really. There should have been a coherent mask policy and sensible policies put out, all bars closed etc and we'd be managing this.

Do you think that bars/hospitality are really that crucial? To literally wipe out a sector of the economy - which would be essentially permanent -  is incredibly drastic. And the transmission that was happening in pubs would presumably just happen in people's homes instead. It doesn't sound to me like a sensible policy at all. How effective are masks? A bit. Yes, we should have been wearing them earlier, but I still think we'd be in roughly the same place by now.

I don't see any evidence of covid being manageable except by shutting the borders before it gets in and spreads. Once you've f*cked that up, it's game over and multiple lockdowns.

1
Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

A bit?

I think it's more than a bit. You are taking 100,000s of lives. In the US we have nice comparisons and the difference between the states is pretty amazing. Obviously those that have masks being worn just generally take it more seriously.

We've seen the same with nations responses. But what have you got to lose? Just wear masks..

We've been in school for 2 months in a covid high spot, masks on, and have no transmission and we test lots. Most families I know have had one member tested in the last few weeks. 

Do you think bars can survive? Repeated two week lockdowns.. here most people who test positive have been in bars that two weeks before. Obviously if they are in bars they will have other high risk behavior.

And I disagree that there's nothing you can do. We know that's not the case. We know we can stop the healthcare infrastructure being over ran. But we just can't eradicate it.

Post edited at 21:56
Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> I meant at this point in time he had no choice... he couldn't keep putting it off. 

Yeah, it's another reset, but coming out of it in two weeks I think it can be managed better. If not its another lockdown.. then another..

 climbingpixie 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

That's a fair point and I hadn't really thought about it from that perspective. It's an interesting thought experiment to wonder how things would be going under a Labour government right now - my guess is that there would be much more of a public and political argument about the economy vs health trade off and a lot more aggro from the libertarian right, much of which is neutralised by the Covid policies being Tory policies.

I'd probably have more sympathy if Johnson hadn't created so much of the situation himself, mind. Perhaps if he had a cabinet with more gravitas and ability he'd be in a stronger position. Perhaps if his entire premiership hadn't been based on boosterism, division and a fundamental disregard for the truth he'd have more ammunition against the lockdown sceptics. That attack video on Starmer's call for a circuit breaker from 10 days ago seems somewhat counterproductive now...

Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to climbingpixie:

Yes, this post truth world is a massive issue. Simple scientific truths are now just someone's opinion and you can 'do your own research' and ignore the expert who has been working in the field for 30 years...

 MargieB 31 Oct 2020
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

The twitter graph shows the tier system has flattened /slowed covid 19 but the trajectory is still upward and the downward effect is dramatic only because of a lockdown.

But that may be because the tier system was introduced too late when R transmission  was  above 1. The tier system may really have it use to produce a downward trend when applied when R is well below 1,: checking the level to stay below 1 when applied as soon as Test and trace prove a small incremental rise in covid cases. We may have learnt when it is effective in its usage re R level- when below 1 but rising again.

Maybe there are lessons to apply from this tier" trial ", to be applied after a lockdown  in December to Spring.. But given that R is currently above 1 and  rising, even in low incidence  areas, it seems that  lockdown at the moment is the only solution even for Scotland,  when transmission is above R1. 

I Maybe wrong, but that is what I understood to be the logic from tonight's scientific explanations for an English lockdown on the TV. I await a Scottish announcement to see if I'm right on this one!

 Jon Stewart 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> I think it's more than a bit. You are taking 100,000s of lives. In the US we have nice comparisons and the difference between the states is pretty amazing. Obviously those that have masks being worn just generally take it more seriously.

Exactly. We should all be wearing masks where appropriate and observing social distancing. I think we should be keeping as much of the economy open as possible while making these adaptations. Unfortunately, we've been unsuccessful in making that work so we've ended up back in lockdown. 

> We've been in school for 2 months in a covid high spot, masks on, and have no transmission and we test lots. Most families I know have had one member tested in the last few weeks. 

> Do you think bars can survive? Repeated two week lockdowns.. here most people who test positive have been in bars that two weeks before. Obviously if they are in bars they will have other high risk behavior.

Pubs are very central to British culture - yes, I think many of them can survive and I think it's very important they do. And I don't think closing them all down in March forever would have stopped an autumn wave of covid. 

> And I disagree that there's nothing you can do.

I didn't mean that. We're doing a lot, and it's working a bit. I just don't think there are any good solutions (except being quick out of the blocks and stopping it before it starts) - I don't think your proposal of more masks and no pubs would cut it.

 jkarran 31 Oct 2020
In reply to wintertree:

>  If he consistently acted with this degree of a briefing, preparation, humility and thoughtfulness he could actually be a good PM.

Yep. Harder than usual to despise him tonight but still, just enough.

I'm glad he's acted significantly faster than I thought he would (assuming his lunatic party don't undermine him on Monday if Labour do something daft like abstain or not not show up in numbers) but I do doubt it's going to work with the schools open, especially limited to 4 weeks.

I can't see covid in the uni setting responding at all. That all goes home for Christmas. That's really hard to fix without triggering a politically toxic student mental health problem locking them in for a whole winter.

I fear this this is a hard way to buy very brief respite.

jk

Post edited at 22:58
Roadrunner6 31 Oct 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

I agree there's a community issue with keeping bars open, maybe we just set strict limits and subsidize.

I'm not for a lockdown in general but maybe a reset is needed.

I don't think we should hide away unless high risk but we should reduce the risk, but I'm a middle class suburban resident. I teach but to small classes and I don't need to use public transport. 

But it's incredible here how it changes just 1 hour away when I cross the border to NH, a libertarian state. Masks disappear. 

 Toerag 01 Nov 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I think I win - I posted at 11:15 on Thursday in the 'French lockdown part 2' thread:-

"I've just done some maths to try to work out the UK's the 'crash the NHS' potential.
France's live caseload* a week ago was about 307k, about 0.4% (1 in 250) of their population. That caseload resulted in 50% of their available beds occupied by covid patients today, therefore their current caseload of ~425k is probably going to crash their healthcare system.

According to BBC, France has about twice the hospital bed capacity that the UK does and both countries have a similar population size.

Beds per 100k population:- Germany 800, France 591, Italy 314, Spain 297, UK 246.

..so the UK should theoretically crash the NHS at a caseload half that of France's current load - 300k live cases.

Current UK live caseload* was 268k cases yesterday, increasing by 5-7k cases per day (7 day average, peaked at over 7k per day for a week solid in mid october, now down to 5.8k yesterday).  Assuming everything is equal between UK and French healthcare and likelihood of cases needing hospital treatment, the UK should expect a national lockdown in about a week's time and actually needs one now :-/."

Current live caseload is now 289,251 by my calculations, and growing at 5,500 per day (7 day average).

Post edited at 00:52
1
OP David Alcock 01 Nov 2020

Well, that was interesting. To be honest I thought he did ok. He's obviously so forced into a corner he did a pretty good fake of honesty and embarrassment. I even thought I caught a fleeting hint of shame...

No, I haven't taken drugs. Perhaps I should.

It's still a fudge keeping education open. I don't have an answer to that - I have kids being hit hard by it all - not just the lack this year, but the lack they've experienced since they've gone back. I'm not blaming the teachers. My kids' mum is one, so I have some knowledge as to how real teaching is difficult under these conditions.

Will it be enough? Will we have our Christmas for Blighty moment? F*ck knows.

"Tomorrow is a new day," said Boris. 

 profitofdoom 01 Nov 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> ...........He's obviously so forced into a corner...............

> It's still a fudge keeping education open............. 

'forced into a corner', too right, the phrase "Between the devil and the deep blue sea" springs to mind

I'm not a Tory voter, or apologist, but I'd hate to be in Johnson's shoes right now

Education? What to do?? So hard to decide, but my vote is - shut down all education except on-line during this lockdown from Thursday. Doing so will personally and negatively affect me but it seems to me we should go all out if we do anything at all

 deepsoup 01 Nov 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

> It's still a fudge keeping education open.

And building sites and factories.

Also, according to Oliver Dowden on Twitter (who probably doesn't believe in 'virtue signalling' but is currently dwarfed by two huge poppies in his profile pic), 'elite' sport, film & tv production, telecoms (well dur! that one is genuinely essential) among others.

https://twitter.com/OliverDowden/status/1322619951543443457

Post edited at 10:23
Roadrunner6 01 Nov 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

I think schools have up to open but only with masks and reduced class sizes

Remote learning did not work, and I say that as a teacher and a parent. My daughter loves school. She's in a mask almost all day. But she's 4/5 and doesn't care. Her mental health is much better since being back. We had twins on April 1st as schools closed so she was more affected than most but she was having melt downs like we'd never seen.

 elsewhere 01 Nov 2020
In reply to David Alcock:

It's far too late, when numbers were low but rising in August they should have been gradually ramping up restrictions. Little if anything is gained by letting it grow until you need the coming lockdown.

What they've done is like yanking the steering wheel over when you bounce across the motorway hard shoulder and down the embankment the rather than gently correcting earlier when you deviate in the lane. 

Roadrunner6 01 Nov 2020
In reply to profitofdoom:

But it's massively down to Trump and johnson that their respective countries are a mess. Uk testing has been a joke. I barely know anyone who has had a test in the UK, and waiting days is the norm. Here it's within the next day, often same day or sometimes minutes. The technology is pretty simple.

All we need do is just keep the r value down. Just be sensible. Stay outside. Small social circles. Mask. Test lots. And do this for the next year. 

We can't get to no risk, I teach in person, my kids in school, my wife's an MD in a massive hospital. We could well get it but when we do our social circle is small.

Post edited at 12:36
In reply to AJM:

> As ever with Boris his desire to be loved means he’s waited until there’s a critical mass already behind him

And, since that 'critical mass' is people ill and dying, and a longer lockdown, and increased economic damage, I will continue to hate the weak, lazy, cowardly f*cker.

2
baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> > As ever with Boris his desire to be loved means he’s waited until there’s a critical mass already behind him

> And, since that 'critical mass' is people ill and dying, and a longer lockdown, and increased economic damage, I will continue to hate the weak, lazy, cowardly f*cker.

Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown.

He hasn’t been seen to be doing something just because  Starmer wanted it.

He’s allowed people to have their half term holidays.

He’s allowed tourism based businesses to benefit from those on holiday.

He hasn’t had to shut schools and so has avoided  child care issues.

He’s got a longer lockdown than would have been possible with a circuit breaker.

He’s kept the furlough scheme going so removing criticism of the scheme that was to replace it.

He’s probably sat at home feeling quite pleased with himself.

12
In reply to baron:

> Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown.

> He hasn’t been seen to be doing something just because  Starmer wanted it.

You really believe that?

You really believe that not being seen to do what Starmer suggested is the most important thing?

Whilst all this petty politics is going on, people are sick and dying, and the economy is being screwed.

Post edited at 13:32
1
baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> > Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown.

> You really believe that?

> You really believe that not being seen to do what Starmer suggested is the most important thing?

> Whilst all this petty politics is going on, people are sick and dying, and the economy is being screwed.

I’m suggesting that being seen to not be following Starmer ‘s advice is very important to Johnson.

People are sick and dying and the economy is suffering and while Johnson may or may not be to blame if you have a better idea maybe you could share it with the leaders of all those countries who also seem to have no real idea as to how to control the virus.

3
 Blunderbuss 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown.

> He hasn’t been seen to be doing something just because  Starmer wanted it.

> He’s allowed people to have their half term holidays.

> He’s allowed tourism based businesses to benefit from those on holiday.

> He hasn’t had to shut schools and so has avoided  child care issues.

> He’s got a longer lockdown than would have been possible with a circuit breaker.

> He’s kept the furlough scheme going so removing criticism of the scheme that was to replace it.

> He’s probably sat at home feeling quite pleased with himself.

This is a wind up right?

1
mick taylor 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

If you had used the phrase ‘BoJo thinks he’s played a blinder’ then I would agree with a lot of that (especially the ‘smug’ bit).

 jkarran 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown...

That is absolutely crackers! Unless it was sarcasm?

Jk

1
baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> This is a wind up right?

No, it’s an opinion.

Possibly, no probably different than yours.

1
baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to mick taylor:

> If you had used the phrase ‘BoJo thinks he’s played a blinder’ then I would agree with a lot of that (especially the ‘smug’ bit).

Indeed.

baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> That is absolutely crackers! Unless it was sarcasm?

> Jk

Crackers. Me? Surely not!

 George Ormerod 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I’m suggesting that being seen to not be following Starmer ‘s advice is very important to Johnson.

That's pretty damming from a Boris fan, saying that he's willing to kill thousands more people, have a longer lockdown with greater economic consequences, for the sake of political appearances.  I despise the man, but I put it down to incompetence and being a weak, piss-poor leader.  Still, you're entitled to your opinion.

1
 Blunderbuss 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> No, it’s an opinion.

> Possibly, no probably different than yours.

You are the first person I've heard to claim he has played a blinder... 

1
 Jon Stewart 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

If you woke up to find Boris Johnson had done a massive shit all over your face, would you praise him for the generosity of the free rejuvenating face mask? 

baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to George Ormerod:

> That's pretty damming from a Boris fan, saying that he's willing to kill thousands more people, have a longer lockdown with greater economic consequences, for the sake of political appearances.  I despise the man, but I put it down to incompetence and being a weak, piss-poor leader.  Still, you're entitled to your opinion.

I’m not a Johnson fan, he’s a buffoon!

baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> You are the first person I've heard to claim he has played a blinder... 

So you disagree with the points that I made?

baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to Jon Stewart:

> If you woke up to find Boris Johnson had done a massive shit all over your face, would you praise him for the generosity of the free rejuvenating face mask? 

Of course I wouldn’t.

Don’t be silly.

In reply to baron:

> if you have a better idea maybe you could share it 

I've been sharing it here for weeks. I've shared it with my MP.

My better idea is for a regular series of firebreak lockdowns, to keep population prevalence low, preventing unchecked exponential growth. Given that a regular lockdown would be of known duration, at known times and of known regulation, people will find it more acceptable to comply. Businesses will be able to plan for the regular lockdowns. Keeping the population prevalence low will allow economic activity to continue almost normally between lockdown periods. If we have, say, 2 weeks on, 6 weeks off, we could maintain economic activity around 75%.or more. 

If we can keep the doubling rate at about 14 days, we will only get three doublings in the unlocked period; a factor of 8. Hopefully, the two week lockdown can reset that back to a factor of one.

It's a much better idea than letting the virus spread exponentially until we are forced to lock down for a prolonged period, in order to prevent collapse of the NHS.

Economic damage will be done in either case, but at least by controlling numbers, we prevent large numbers of deaths and long term illnesses of long covid, and allow the NHS to deal with its routine work, rather than using all resources for covid cases.

1
baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

Have a like.

 Blunderbuss 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> So you disagree with the points that I made?

Stopped reading when you said he's played a blinder tbh... 

baron 01 Nov 2020
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Stopped reading when you said he's played a blinder tbh... 

Probably a good idea.

 George Ormerod 01 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> I’m not a Johnson fan, he’s a buffoon!

I know. I can’t seem to do a smiley face from my computer 😃

 Michael Hood 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

The other advantage of this kind of thing is that it allows everyone to plan - certain types of business would have to do all their stuff in 6 out of the 8 week (or whatever the periods would be).

Some wouldn't suffer much at all - e.g. an electronics shop - TVs and the like - people would just buy in the 6 week period rather than spread over the 8.

Others would suffer unless much longer hours were worked in the 6 weeks to compensate.

One of the most disruptive elements is uncertainty - and the kind of regular thing you're suggesting would remove a lot of that. I suspect we will end up in this kind of situation in 2021 but we'll stumble into it rather than stepping gracefully in.

In reply to Michael Hood:

> The other advantage of this kind of thing is that it allows everyone to plan

Yes; I covered that, briefly:

"Businesses will be able to plan for the regular lockdowns"

 MargieB 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

The science may prove this is the pattern to best keep R under 1 anyway and get some economy. The tier 3 had an effect to flatten the virus curve, though still going up, when the R is above 1 in Central Scotland . But it has told us that those  restrictions at level 3 stage do have an effect. Maybe after a lockdown immediately to get us all under R 1, the pattern of 6/8 weeks at level 1 or 2, followed by all at level 3 for 2 weeks could be a successful pattern of behaviour until the vaccine arrives. The clincher as to the length of time of each  period would be test and trace to determine how fast the disease is rising. that would help  to tweek the time periods to the disease. It strikes me as a very interesting, effective idea you've suggested. Plus you could get a set, universal pattern of financial support sorted for 6 months instead of this fluctuating patchy financial uncertainty that nobody can cope with-  until the vaccine is rolled out to change things.

Post edited at 20:40
In reply to MargieB:

> The science may prove this is the pattern to best keep R under 1 anyway and get some economy. 

I'm an engineer; the idea isn't just based on random musings.

 Michael Hood 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> "Businesses will be able to plan for the regular lockdowns"

Oops, missed that 😁

 Toerag 01 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

> > If we can keep the doubling rate at about 14 days, we will only get three doublings in the unlocked period; a factor of 8. Hopefully, the two week lockdown can reset that back to a factor of one.

I'm not sure 2 week 'lockdowns' are enough to knock the prevalence level down fast & far enough when the lockdown is so weak.

> It's a much better idea than letting the virus spread exponentially until we are forced to lock down for a prolonged period, in order to prevent collapse of the NHS.

> Economic damage will be done in either case, but at least by controlling numbers, we prevent large numbers of deaths and long term illnesses of long covid, and allow the NHS to deal with its routine work, rather than using all resources for covid cases.

I agree with the principle, and the certainty of 2 on 6 off is very helpful for business. It does risk people going all-out when they're not locked down though - I expect this weekend has seen lots of people partying before they're locked down next weekend.

 Misha 01 Nov 2020
In reply to Toerag:

True but on the other hand if people know it’s only 2 weeks they might take it easy?

In reply to Toerag:

> I'm not sure 2 week 'lockdowns' are enough to knock the prevalence level down fast & far enough when the lockdown is so weak.

It has to be a pretty firm lockdown. The idea of a fairly short lockdown (intended to flush infections through their infectious cycle) is that people will know when they are going to end, which hopefully will encourage compliance. Had to be couple with strong penalties for non-compliance.

It needs to be clearly communicated, too  so that people understand how it is meant to work, and what benefits it should bring.

 George Ormerod 02 Nov 2020
In reply to captain paranoia:

Great idea. Never thought of that one. Though there could be issues of the population relaxing too much in the ‘non-lockdown’ phases. 

 Andy Hardy 02 Nov 2020
In reply to baron:

> Johnson has played a blinder with his timing of the latest lockdown.

> He hasn’t been seen to be doing something just because  Starmer wanted it.

Starmer didn't suggest it. SAGE did.

> He’s allowed people to have their half term holidays.

He could've extended their half terms

> He’s allowed tourism based businesses to benefit from those on holiday.

And keep on spreading.

> He hasn’t had to shut schools and so has avoided  child care issues.

> He’s got a longer lockdown than would have been possible with a circuit breaker.

It will be a longer lockdown than would have been needed.

> He’s kept the furlough scheme going so removing criticism of the scheme that was to replace it.

> He’s probably sat at home feeling quite pleased with himself.

No change there then.

There are no good choices here, but, with an almost uncanny ability, Johnson picks the worst option every time.

 MargieB 04 Nov 2020
In reply to Toerag:

Isn't there  an unknown factor in this system of 6 weeks almost normal , 2 weeks lockdown? The winter conditions and human indoor life may speed up the rate of transmission of the disease. We don't really know that. There needs a robust Test and trace to determine the rate of transmission, in order to adjust the time periods.

Second unknown is the levels 1, 2, 3  {Scottish definitions} in their effectiveness in keeping the disease down once under R1. We may still have to use these levels in the 6 weeks of "normality" anyway { given the virulence of the disease} to give us a fighting chance to have any protracted 6 week period dedicated to economic activity. 

The only evidence on levels and their effectiveness, is that level 3 when applied in Scotland when R is above 1,  isn't enough to diminish the  disease. Its that bad a disease and extremely successful in transmission.

In reply to MargieB:

> Its that bad a disease and extremely successful in transmission.

Transmission is a combination of infectivity and social factors. Whilst it does seem to be pretty infectious, I'm afraid that social distancing measures aren't being adhered to strictly enough.

I'm sure I've been over-optimistic in hoping that six weeks exponential growth can be reset in two weeks, considering the first wave attack and decay. That would require a hard lockdown, applied rigidly. I'd need to look carefully at the growth rate during the earlier unlock (before schools and unis reopened), to see what the growth rate was, and whether 2 weeks of first wave lockdown could reset 6 weeks of such growth. But that wouldn't be the 'almost normal economic activity' I was hoping for.

Post edited at 17:13

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