UKH

So, what's Johnson bringing home and how will it play out this weekend?

My bet is it's basically May's first stab at the WA with the EU's customs border in the Irish Sea plus some sort of messy bureaucratic charade so he can claim it isn't for large, registered NI-UK only businesses. Massive multi-billion pound DUP bribe, probably fails. No political declaration, just vague waffle to MPs this end so he can build a coalition of brexit moderates and hardliners each believing they can still win out.

New old WA narrowly fails in parliament in a rushed straight vote late Saturday night. Johnson sends A50 letter but has already requested a veto or a delay granting the delay to increase pressure on parliament. Legal action starts over whether the Benn act was complied with but events get ahead of it.

Mid week the new WA is tried again by some chicanery, passes by 1 or 2 votes with an amended referendum rejected. VONC collapses government, Halloween chaos with Johnson notionally in charge unchecked and none of the necessary withdrawal legislation enacted.

Johnson wins a small but cowed majority with the opposition bitterly divided and fighting over who bears the blame for the failure to oppose. Canada--- brexit is a spiralling economic and social disaster. 5 years of deep austerity under Johnson who tries to re-find the center ground but can't as his radicalised brexit-party-2.0 systematically dismantles the welfare state. Violent clashes escalate in NI, largely kept out of mainland UK. Johnson refuses Sturgeon IndyRef2. Hanging for murderers and paedophiles headlines the 2025 Conservative manifesto.

jk

I don't know how it will go, but I did see this tweet, suggesting that there is no time for the essential document translation:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1184353096014712832

I suppose that assumes it's not 99% cherry-picked from pre-existing well understood texts but the rush does seem absurd! Then again it'll almost certainly need a backdrop of pressing artificial deadline if it's to get through parliament largely unscrutinised.

jk

EU rejects plan, Queen throws Johnson out and appoints a PM to go and grovel in Brussels. GE is forced by Labour and nobody can form a government capable of making a decision. EU gives up and throws UK out.

You're probably right. The whole thing is so depressing and so utterly stupid.

Depressing that the entire project may hinge on the DUP. 

We need a f*cking referendum.

That's all very well, but what if it all goes wrong?

'Taking back control' acquires another dimension...

Would that be a referendum with a 'In and Out' option?

IF ?

Not really, there are three options, leave with no deal, leave with a deal that both parliament and the EU agree on (I think it would be a lot easier for parliament to vote yes if they could put it to a vote), or leave things as they are (plus damage done, but we can’t change that).

Otherwise something is going to be forced through without any mandate. And I will never forgive leave voters, an undemocratic government and stupid bullshit arguments about our so called sovereignty and position in the world for getting us into this position.

This will not be over if we leave. If we f*ck up as a nation then where will the blame fall? For twenty years we’ll not only be negotiating a new position for the U.K.,we’ll also be second guessing where we could have been, and are we any better off?

Plus, dogged f*ckers like me will be agitating and blaming every step of the way.

Are you really so earnest in your hatred that you don't recognise the play on words in response to your post?
 

Ooops.

If it shows one thing it is that the UK is in no fit state safely to execute the action of leaving the EU.  This alone justifies revoking Article 50 and then perhaps if we had another referendum showing a mass will to leave we could go about long term planning for that action, removing issues that get in the way, perhaps re-unifying Ireland, devolving power to regions etc.

The fact that there is no agreement on a way of leaving that either pleases an overwhelming majority or does not threaten the integrity of our nation state shows the unsafeness of the action.

I can't see the queen booting Johnson, or MPs for a while yet but the EU will want us gone or down off the ledge by summer so that's a real deadline assuming this one slides.

I don't want to crack a smile too soon, we've been here and disappointed before but it's sounding this morning like Corbyn may have finally come to his senses. The opposition possibly do, possibly don't have the numbers to block Johnson's version of May's deal but either way the Conservatives probably win this election so they're going to have to whip for a confirmatory referendum to ensure there is one last chance to stop (or legitimise) this folly.

jk

Junker announced a deal has been made. 

https://www.rt.com/news/471111-brexit-deal-done-announcement/?utm_source=br...

DUP hasn't agreed to support the Government yet. Probably looking for more sweeteners... abortion, cash etc..