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mick taylor 31 Jan 2021

That’s the figure just in for people getting first dose of the vaccine and thought it worthy of its own thread. 
WOW!!

Edit; it gets better, 10.5k given the second dose. 

Post edited at 16:31
 BusyLizzie 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

That second dose figure is really heartening.

 Rick Graham 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

It looks even better if you noted that it was a single days total.

1
 Offwidth 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

It's really good but it's still only just on target as an average this week (we need to average just below 400,000 a day). Around a month after target we need to ramp up to double current capacity to keep getting first doses going in at the same rate, as the second doses come due. There are problems: from small but understandable.... I know a few really vulnerable immobile people in their 80s being cared for at home who still don't have an appointment; to large and unforgivable... real problems are growing in the vulnerable  BAME community vaccination rates (the government knew this was going to be a problem months back but don't seem to have done very much about it).

I think we need a policy rethink. A better focus on the BAME communities is vital. Risks for middle class people in their 60s who are safe and OK at home are much lower than many not much younger front line staff in jobs where they can't always self isolate. This is supposed to be about saving lives and getting hospitals back to something like normal. The government just seem to want to boast about how fast they are going.

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 Toccata 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

Worth remembering that vaccinating a million people a day still takes nearly 5 months to get everyone protected.

2
 wintertree 31 Jan 2021
In reply to Toccata:

> Worth remembering that vaccinating a million people a day still takes nearly 5 months to get everyone protected.

We’ll see.  It would take 5 months to get everyone as fully protected as possible from becoming infected on exposure.

But it’s looking like case rates will start being further reduced by the first jab of two-jab vaccines, and so the process drives case rates down and down to the point people are indirectly protected.  It’s not the same thing and it doesn’t undermine your point, but it makes me happy.

1
In reply to Toccata:

Yes, as said, doesn't need that long to see the effect. And there's been noise about data coming this week on effectiveness of the first dose, which has shortened the life of my F5 key.

 MG 31 Jan 2021
In reply to Offwidth:

> I think we need a policy rethink. A better focus on the BAME communities is vital.

Why? I know there is some evidence they are more vulnerable but given the course priority levels (necessarily) being used, it seems much too early to be distracted by small sub groups and special interests.  We are still at the level.of.stopping people dying and it is clear age is by far the dominant factor here.

 Si dH 31 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

I think Offwidth was probably talking about lower vaccine take-up rates in BAME communities rather than the higher death rates. Both are obviously important but presumably Offwidth is talking about policy to persuade more people to get vaccinated. I'm not sure exactly what this would be from central government, other than communication. I think it's best done at local level by local councils engaging with their communities.

1
 WaterMonkey 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

I just hope they’ve thought to prebook at least double that amount for 3 months’ time!

Edit: Mind you this is being organised by the British Army and not the British government so I think we’re in safe hands!

Post edited at 20:04
 The New NickB 31 Jan 2021
In reply to WaterMonkey:

> I just hope they’ve thought to prebook at least double that amount for 3 months’ time!

> Edit: Mind you this is being organised by the British Army and not the British government so I think we’re in safe hands!

It’s mainly being organised by Councils and local Public Health, which is a good thing.

Alyson30 31 Jan 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

> That’s the figure just in for people getting first dose of the vaccine and thought it worthy of its own thread. 

Impressive. Still will take some time and we’ll still need NPI for a while... but at last some reasons to be hopeful.

Wintertree posted an article earlier, some very early evidence that the vaccine reduces transmission quite significantly That possibly would have an even bigger impact.

Post edited at 21:42
1
Alyson30 31 Jan 2021
In reply to The New NickB:

> It’s mainly being organised by Councils and local Public Health, which is a good thing.

Maybe the government finally realised that centralising everything in n10 to some guy who thinks he is Elon Musk and outsource to Serco wasn’t the way forward ?

Post edited at 21:45
7
 rurp 31 Jan 2021
In reply to The New NickB:

75% of vaccine provision so far delivered  by primary care networks ( basically 3-7 of your local GP practices)  working together from a hub within the network. Lots of goodwill and community volunteers. 
NHS England organising the delivery of vaccines to these hubs. councils supported with finding venues if surgeries are not suitable. Public health have little manpower sadly. 
25% vaccine delivery through hospital sites and other MVS ( mass vaccination sites) such as millennium point etc. Military involvement in high level planning. 
 

 girlymonkey 31 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30

> Wintertree posted an article earlier, some very early evidence that the vaccine reduces transmission quite significantly That possibly would have an even bigger impact.

That's great news! I missed that article, could you point me to it please?

Alyson30 31 Jan 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

> In reply to Alyson30

> That's great news! I missed that article, could you point me to it please?

It was this one.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccines-are-slowing-spread-of-vir...

But after reading the article in its entirety in more detail have to apologise for giving you false early hopes. Looks like I misunderstood.

It states this:

“Professor Harnden said that untangling the effects of vaccination on transmission was so complicated that “I don’t think we’re going to know a lot about the definitive transmission questions before phase two of the vaccination programme is going to have to be decided”.”

Still, pretty good to see that it really brings down the infection level. (With the caveat that this will be mainly the effect of the Pfizer vaccine at this point in the data, but hopefully the other one works well too)

Post edited at 22:25
 wintertree 31 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> Still, pretty good to see that it really brings down the infection level

It would be a funny vaccine indeed if it brought down the infection level without lowering transmission.

In terms of Harnden’s statement, we know so little about most transmission events that it would take a miracle to understand how the vaccine is affecting those.  However, if the vaccination lowers the numbers of infections in the vaccinated - as the press comms before the report suggest - I think some sensible conclusions can be drawn about transmission........

Post edited at 22:51
1
 wintertree 31 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> it seems much too early to be distracted by small sub groups and special interests.  We are still at the level.of.stopping people dying and it is clear age is by far the dominant factor here.

Age is only the dominant factor because the majority of people aren’t under the BAME classification and PHE’s dominant (per head) but mysterious “other” .  A combination of higher susceptibility and lower vaccination rates will rapidly go on to create a barrier to progress.

Right now there are so many people susceptible to hospitalisation that this doesn’t matter; we haven’t finished getting the first dose to those people and until we’re nearly done there, the precise order isn’t very important - every dose given will reduce pressure on healthcare.  But hopefully soon we will be in a better place, and not tackling this problem both fails communities and creates barriers to overall reduction in case numbers as everyone is connected, and I think growth or zero decay sub populations act as anchors on the rest of the population.

The answer has to be community engagement.  I’ve been very happy to see religious buildings being used for vaccination; this I think sends a powerful message.

Alyson30 31 Jan 2021
In reply to wintertree:

> > Still, pretty good to see that it really brings down the infection level

> It would be a funny vaccine indeed if it brought down the infection level without lowering transmission.

The question is by how much, and how much is enough.

It does seem likely that a vaccinated person, even if infected, would at least shed less virus.

But I also remember reading that in the animal trials of the Astra vaccine, they had not found reduce shedding from the nose of the chimpanzees (although they had far lower viral load overall)

Worth also considering behavioural impacts, people who would have been symptomatic and staying home could end up instead being asymptomatic and spreading it around ?

Lots of uncertainty still, although reasons to be hopeful.

> However, if the vaccination lowers the numbers of infections in the vaccinated - as the press comms before the report suggest - I think some sensible conclusions can be drawn about transmission........

I am not sure whether the article refers to symptomatic infections only or all ? I assume it’s basically those who came forward for a test.

Post edited at 23:30
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 Misha 01 Feb 2021
In reply to Offwidth:

> It's really good but it's still only just on target as an average this week (we need to average just below 400,000 a day). Around a month after target we need to ramp up to double current capacity to keep getting first doses going in at the same rate, as the second doses come due.

We shall see but I'm not convinced it's feasible to double current capacity. So what will happen instead is there will be a period of time where not many first doses will be administered. Then once the second doses are largely done, the number of first doses will increase again. If they can maintain anything like 600k a day (around 4m a week), that's already a fantastic achievement.

A high level calculation. We need around 100m doses for all adults who can/will have the vaccine (assuming around 10% can't or won't, which means around 50m adults to be vaccinated in the UK). That's 91m left to do. At 4m a week, that's only 23 weeks from now, i.e. by the end of the first week of July. In practice, 

The BBC says there are 21m people outside the 9 priority groups (i.e. anyone under 50 who doesn't have a serious medical condition and doesn't work in healthcare / care). At 4m a week, it would take only 5 weeks to jab everyone in this low risk cohort (even if as many as 95% have it, that's 20m, so 5 weeks). In practice, that could mean a significant lifting of restrictions around mid-June, being 3 weeks after everyone in the low risk cohort has had at least one shot. I'd say that would pretty good going. By this I mean pubs and restaurants, hairdressers etc, hotels and campsites,  sport and leisure facilities. I imagine general retail will open up some time in April. I'm sure the hospitality and leisure sector would be keen to open earlier but I'm not sure it would be sensible, though it depends on how fast the number of cases reduces.

This assumes the rollout isn't derailed by production issues, scuffles with the EU etc and, most importantly, a vaccine resistant strain running rampant.

My prediction is we'll have a decent summer, similar to last year, with relatively few restrictions from July, potentially from June if things go well. Of course face masks and SD would still be required and large scale events won't be permitted. However international travel will be a right pain at best (needing to get tested and to self-isolate) and will quite possibly involve mandatory quarantine on return to the UK from most destinations. Hence I'm looking forward to some UK road trips to discover or revisit all those places I've been meaning to go to...

Post edited at 01:16
 MG 01 Feb 2021
In reply to Misha:

I don't think 4m does/week are available currently are they?  AZ is promising 2m/week but that's before the EU shenanigans.  Pfizer can't make up the difference.

1
 steve taylor 01 Feb 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

It's interesting here in Saudi (a country with almost unlimited spending power) that they have already run out of vaccine. They have a great electronic platform that allows you to register for the jab, but a lot of people ticked the "I have asthma" box to jump the queue...

I wonder if they will report a surge in asthma cases here now???

mick taylor 01 Feb 2021
In reply to Misha:

Some random thoughts along your lines: I heard that about 900 people have died under the age of 45, and I guess a large % of these would have had underlying health conditions.  That’s about 4 a day for when we have high infection (fag packet maths). Between April and Dec inclusive about 400 people under 60 died in hospital who didn’t have an underlying health condition.  So long as hospitals aren’t mobbed, then the govt would be OK say 50 deaths a day because this would be lower than normal flu deaths. The govt will use deaths as a measure because it’s what the public obsess about (I do) and they are populist. 

From mid Feb onwards I reckon we could start to see death rates really fall due to lockdown measures/vaccine/natural immunity (we are still on a plateau now, perhaps falling off it, but deaths not falling much in places like NW England).

I think we will see some easing of restrictions in March (probably to coincide with the date the first lockdown kicked in - Johnson will love that), and significant easing about Easter time. 

Post edited at 12:31
 squarepeg 01 Feb 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

Labour would have done much better, of course 

😁

 Si dH 01 Feb 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

> I think we will see some easing of restrictions in March (probably to coincide with the date the first lockdown kicked in - Johnson will love that), and significant easing about Easter time. 

The anniversary of lockdown beginning (23/03) is followed only four days later by the start of the Easter school holidays in many parts of the country. So I suspect you are probably right that some easing will happen then, unless a school return on 08/03 causes a noticeable resurgence in the meantime. What he might relax first though I have no idea.

 Misha 03 Feb 2021
In reply to MG:

Indeed, this is a best case scenario. However it seems it’s around 3m a week at the moment. 10m milestone tomorrow...

 Misha 03 Feb 2021
In reply to mick taylor:

Thing is, let it rip in the under 60s or even under 50s could still swamp hospitals given they aren’t exactly empty...

 Billhook 03 Feb 2021
In reply to wintertree:

> >

> The answer has to be community engagement.  I’ve been very happy to see religious buildings being used for vaccination; this I think sends a powerful message.

Which is just what one Mosque has done somewhere here, 'up north'. 


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