196,000 deaths in the USA

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 neilh 11 Sep 2020

I wonder when they are going to hit 200k and how Trump is going to divert attention elsewhere on that day.

Boy is that a grim stat for the Leader of the Free World.

1
Roadrunner6 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

> I wonder when they are going to hit 200k and how Trump is going to divert attention elsewhere on that day.

> Boy is that a grim stat for the Leader of the Free World.

His support has stayed constant (as it has for the last 5 years). The idea is these were all 85-90 year old people who just lost a few days of their lives or other very sick people. They've really bought into that.

They don't realize that when the CDC say that many people who died suffered other conditions it's often just obesity.. and then you'll see an obese guy saying he's not at risk as he's healthy. 

Obviously today we now see 'never forget' to remember 3000 dead, and then a minute later they play down two 9/11s happening a week at the moment. Imagine if islamic terrorists carried out 2 9/11s a week? 

Post edited at 14:00
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 Philip 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

They tested too much. If they hadn't tested for deadness then they wouldn't have had so many dead. Obama would have killed everyone, twice over.

That's my prediction for how he'll react.

 wintertree 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

Yet they still haven’t reached the UK’s per-capita deaths which themselves have been almost static for the last few months.

Pause for thought that.

2
In reply to Philip:

Or something about Killary Clinton...

 Kalna_kaza 11 Sep 2020
In reply to Philip:

* Trump voice *

"Tremendous figures, the best figures we've seen, you know some people, very wise good people, are saying there beating countries like Europe.'

Reporter: "you're saying 200,000 dead Americans is a good thing?"

Trump: "That's fake news, I never said that, dead people are losers. I am not a loser".

 Offwidth 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

Early next week (daily average is greater than the difference in the next 5 days 3655/5)

3 states pretty constant at 100 deaths a day (California Florida and Texas) , and one constant at 50 (Georgia) and a few constant above 20.

In reply to Kalna_kaza:

I hate to say this (well, realise it's rather immoral to say it) but wouldn't it be wonderful natural justice for Trump to shuffle off his mortal coil owing to the virus that he's treated so flippantly and irresponsibly?

1
OP neilh 11 Sep 2020
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

All well and good , but both candidates are of an age where it is not good for them.

1
In reply to neilh:

You appear to have completely missed my point.

 skog 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

> I wonder when they are going to hit 200k and how Trump is going to divert attention elsewhere on that day.

> Boy is that a grim stat for the Leader of the Free World.

Yeah, it is - but they're doing better than the UK per capita, and in the UK the government is still polling level with, or above, the main opposition party. So I'm afraid I'm not sure it'll make much difference to Trump.

Post edited at 18:16
Roadrunner6 11 Sep 2020
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> I hate to say this (well, realise it's rather immoral to say it) but wouldn't it be wonderful natural justice for Trump to shuffle off his mortal coil owing to the virus that he's treated so flippantly and irresponsibly?

I seriously think it is a matter of time. Elderly obese man with heart disease.. and he's telling people to take their masks off around him.

Roadrunner6 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

And that's why Biden is careful.. yet Trump is saying he's hiding.

 The New NickB 11 Sep 2020
In reply to skog:

Disgraceful as our figures are, there is quite a lot of evidence of significant underreporting in the US figures.

3
OP neilh 11 Sep 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

I just hope Biden does not  catch it. 

The age of both candidates is a sad reflection on the USA. 

1
Roadrunner6 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

TBh I hope Trump doesn't.

Imagine if he dies of COVID, the conspiracy theories..

 Dr.S at work 11 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

> Yet they still haven’t reached the UK’s per-capita deaths which themselves have been almost static for the last few months.

> Pause for thought that.


very true - they do look on track to overtake us in 5-6 days time though, and Brazil not far behind - not that being marginally less rubbish than Brazil and the US will be anything to celebrate.

In reply to Dr.S at work:

I'm sure there will be those who will say 'see; we told you it was too early to make international comparisons'...

 Dax H 11 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

The US has 331 million people and 200k deaths

We have 65 million people, 41.6k deaths.

They have just over 5x more people than us yet their deaths are just less that 5x ours.

Basically for developed countries we are both doing shite and we are doing slightly more shite. 

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 NathanP 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

> Yet they still haven’t reached the UK’s per-capita deaths which themselves have been almost static for the last few months.

> Pause for thought that.

The UK's dreadful results of the CV-19 pandemic are certainly no cause for satisfaction but comparing the UK - a small, densely populated island with a disproportionately large "world city" and lots of international and internal travel to the whole of the USA is really comparing apples with eggs.

If you want a closer comparison, in area, population density, international travel, timing of the initial outbreak and having that large city, I'd suggest comparing England with New York and New Jersey states.

England:

   Area 51,000 square miles, Population 54m, Density 1,058 per square mile

   Total Deaths 40,000 (for the sake of argument), 740 deaths per million

New York and New Jersey 

   Area 63,000 square miles, Population 29m, Density 460 per square mile

   Total Deaths 49,000 (from Worldometer), 1,689 deaths per million.

1
Roadrunner6 12 Sep 2020
In reply to NathanP:

You've just cherry picked data.. 

Tbh even comparing ny and the uk it shows how bad the uk is. Look at new daily cases, a considerable spike in the UK. The NE US has stayed pretty constant after a massive first spike. 

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 NathanP 12 Sep 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

If that makes you feel better, then fine.

The USA, as a whole, with 3.9 million square miles, an average population density of 84 people per square mile and 3000 miles coast to coast is a bit different to the UK with 96 thousand square miles, 720 people per square mile and a coast to coast distance that makes a nice weekend bike ride. 

Sadly the USA is one of the few countries that has handled this even worse than the UK. The disease may have hit New York and New Jersey first but there doesn't seem to be much hope that the rest of the country will avoid that same path.

 wintertree 12 Sep 2020
In reply to NathanP:

> an average population density 

Thats the problem isn’t it.  The average population density is almost completely meaningless when an awful lot of people live in big cities.  What matters is how many close contacts a person has a day, and how much people move between different urban areas.  

Distances between places are larger in the USA than here, bit people also drive way further and fly internally more over there.

That there are vast areas of barely populated mountains and low density farm land sprawling over a strip something like 1,000 miles wide lowers the population density it it doesn’t affect mixing in the cities and so on.

Roadrunner6 12 Sep 2020
In reply to NathanP:

Well yes.. because I live in New England.

So far it's pretty good here. Everyone in my state wears masks, I think regionally were in a good place and we've a good governor. england has bojo..

The state system offers protection. We've seen come incredible governors. They've made mistakes but they shelter us from the idiocy at the top.

I don't think the US is a leader, in fact it's a shit show nation wide in many areas, but regionally were in a better state than the UK. 

Tbh both the UK and the US are a disgrace and should no longer be considered world leaders, they are failed examples of populist leaders with no ideas getting in. It's basically like saying which would you rather have your dog roll in, dog shit or cat shit. Both are shit..

Roadrunner6 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

I agree it's very chalk and cheese. NY state is a classic example of basically a massive congested city and then rural areas for hours and hours.

I just don't think you can judge the US as one nation, in many ways it's like counting europe as a country because regionally we've seen massively different responses. 

 wintertree 12 Sep 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> NY state is a classic example of basically a massive congested city and then rural areas for hours and hours.

I want us to open a lab in Rochester mainly so I can spend an autumn in upstate New York.  Maybe not for a few years now like...

Roadrunner6 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

The property there is so cheap, it's way up there and incredibly snowy winters because of the lake effect. But you can buy a massive lake front house for the price of a condo in Boston. My wife wanted to do Medical residency there but we decided to stay more towards the east coast.

 NathanP 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Yes, of course. I was trying to make the point that the massively greater scale of the USA, larger distances (yes, people fly but not enough to offset the distance in terms of mixing between population centres) and more dispersed population would always mean that a disease would take longer to spread across the whole country.

The US death rate at the moment is still at 1/3 of the peak - in the UK it is 1% - so you can't compare totals to date as though they are final numbers. Let's just hope the UK doesn't go right back up and the US doesn't continue on its current path.

 Richard J 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

I lived in Ithaca for two years so I've got a soft spot for upstate New York ... but why Rochester?  There are a few fine waterfalls that freeze in the Finger Lakes, but access is surprisingly difficult. The Adirondacks are great both summer and winter (some really remote and big rock climbs on good granite) but that must be a good 4 or 5 hours from Rochester.  From Ithaca it was 6 hours to the 'Dacks, 6 hours to the 'Gunks (which I never liked that much anyway, too close to NYC) and four hours to a rather post-apocalyptic limestone quarry in the middle of Pennsylvania (pleasantly reminiscent of Staden Moor quarry, I really quite liked the place).  If I had to choose somewhere on the East Coast it would be New Hampshire.

 wintertree 12 Sep 2020
In reply to NathanP:

> [...] would always mean that a disease would take longer to spread across the whole country.

In the UK, the disease didn't spread across the country with time - we had so many importation events that it was everywhere - geographically speaking - almost from the beginning.   What took time was its exponential spread out from each importation event into the adjacent population, with much of this spread being local.   

It's the same with the USA - it was everywhere by the end of March.  What took time was not the geographic spread across the continent, but the spread from each of the thousands of well distributed early cases out into the local populations.  That's why I think the big spaces between their population centres don't matter as much as you do.

> The US death rate at the moment is still at 1/3 of the peak - in the UK it is 1% - so you can't compare totals to date as though they are final numbers. 

I agree that neither are final numbers - I disagree on your reason why - the reason why to me is simply that this is not over. yet  The UK hit close to its current per-capita level of deaths about 4 months ago and until recently had been getting it under control.  We often think about many of the US states now getting bad as being in a really bad way, but actually despite having had their first cases at a similar time to us, it's taken them until now to get to being as bad as we were by April.   So, in one sense they're doing a lot better in that they've had a slower progression of the disease than us.  I think it's all messed up in a host of other ways, but it drives home just how hard and early the hit was to the UK and some of the north eastern states in the USA.

Post edited at 22:23
 wintertree 12 Sep 2020
In reply to Richard J:

>  but why Rochester

Practical reasons to do with work rather than the great outdoors.  I quite enjoy driving long distances in the USA - such a relaxed and scenic experience compared to here.  

 Richard J 12 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Ah, perhaps the Kodak and Xerox legacy means there's still a lot of optics about, if that's your thing.

 munkins 12 Sep 2020
In reply to neilh:

> I wonder when they are going to hit 200k and how Trump is going to divert attention elsewhere on that day.

> Boy is that a grim stat for the Leader of the Free World.

The two go hand in hand, he is leader of the free world and that is why they feel free to completely ignore him. It was obvious that the virus would affect the US worse than anywhere else in the West from day one. An obese population addicted to personal liberty. Kind of the opposite of China. I wonder how the Chinese US trade war will look after all this.

OP neilh 13 Sep 2020
In reply to wintertree:

Lol. I have to drive round the  mid west a lot on business. God it’s boring apart from the radio.I pine for somewhere like NY State or MA to drive round.


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