/ Oscars 2020 prediction

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Blue Straggler 14 Jan 2020

I predict a milder-than-usual (due to ennui and the fact that the Emmys and Golden Globes are a very fresh memory) bit of recreational outrage at the fact that only one of the nineteen acting nominees is not white...

Let’s see though 

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Dan Arkle 14 Jan 2020
In reply to Blue Straggler:

I predict wins for 1917

It's utterly brilliant. 

However I was most disappointed that this film about WW1 Tommies did not fully represent the diversity of 2020 America.

¯_(ツ)_/¯

Post edited at 14:57
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Blue Straggler 09:19 Mon
In reply to Blue Straggler:

Next prediction, Joaquin Phoenix won't win, because 10 days before the ceremony, a number of women will bring charges of sexual misconduct against him (he has a cloud over him....mind you so does Casey Affleck in related shenanigans  - mostly from around the time that Phoenix and Affleck were working on "I'm Still Here" - and Affleck still won...hmm)

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mav 12:54 Mon
In reply to Blue Straggler:

I predict that Greta Gerwig will win best adapted screenplay, following on from her absence from the best directors nominees.

Whether it is indeed the best adaptation, or Little Women is one of the 5 best directorial displays of the year is a moot point.

(the problem isn't Gerwig not being nominated for best director, its that she is the only woman in the running)

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Blue Straggler 13:04 Mon
In reply to mav:

> (the problem isn't Gerwig not being nominated for best director, its that she is the only woman in the running)

I am a bit lost. Are you saying that Gerwig is the only female director that made a film even likely to be considered for a Best Director nomination?

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mav 14:36 Tue
In reply to Blue Straggler:

I'm saying that the way the awards season tends to develop, the films that are considered is a subset of films released during the year. 'Oscar-worthy' films are held back for release at the correct time, given marketing budgets to pursue the awards. Of these films this year, the only one directed by a woman (indeed, I think the only one not directed by a white male) was Little Women. That's not to say there aren't hugely talented female directors, far from it. Nor is it say that the best films make up this list, or the best way to do it. 

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Blue Straggler 15:13 Tue
In reply to mav:

Yep I get all that, it's been that way for as long as I've been paying attention. 
I guess "Oscar bait" films tend to be big productions, and not that many women get to direct big-production "Oscar bait". 
Of course Sofia Coppola has done well with smaller films, and arguably Patty Jenkins should have been up for a nod for "Monster", and of course Kathryn Bigelow made a fairly major Oscar-bait film and won her Oscar, but more generally even when women (including Gerwig) make a good film, it can be a bit too "indie" for the Academy's admittedly nebulous criteria. And I realise there are LOAD of exceptions e.g. Woody Allen films are "small". 
But what other contenders were there last year? Captain Marvel (co-directed and co-written by Anna Boden)? Nice film but nah. 
I can't remember what else there was. Karyn Kusama's "Destroyer" was very good but not Oscar-bait aside from the lead performance under make-up, and in any case was released into Oscar season for the 2019 awards (no nominations at all, too adult and dark and violent and criminal I guess, says me when Joker is up for loads of awards )

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mav 19:31 Tue
In reply to Blue Straggler:

I think we are agreeing, in that none of the 'oscar bait' films other than Little Women were female-helmed. It's unusual for a film outside this list to break through (which is why Lynne Ramsay missed out a couple years ago with You Were Never Really Here, because that wasn't Oscarbait either).

All I was really arguing initially was a) that the furore over Gerwig's omission from the directors list may assist her in the screenplay category and b) trying to suggest that the real problem wasn't that she was omitted, but that, as you say, not many women get to direct big-production Oscar-bait. Nominated or not, Gerwig has broken through the glass ceiling, not many others have.

Post edited at 19:32
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aln 22:54 Tue
In reply to Blue Straggler:

It's not really relevant to the thread but you know what Straggler, I love your film reviews, your love of films, you bringing it to us on UKc , it brightens my day, gives me something to engage with.

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Blue Straggler 00:15 Wed
In reply to mav:

Aha! Thanks. Yes we are in general agreement, what I was lacking was any knowledge of any furore over Gerwig not getting a Best Director nomination. Thanks for the information, I’ve not kept an eye on the snub outrage thus far! 

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Blue Straggler 00:16 Wed
In reply to aln:

You might not like my 1917 review which is under lock and key at the moment

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aln 00:51 Wed
In reply to Blue Straggler:

I'm hoping to see it at some point soon. Like sharing the experience of a disco in a Lanzarote lava tube, let's wait.

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