OK, it is 1.5 hours before the ceremony (at the time I start writing this). I've been super busy and not spent any time "analysing" the list of nominees so I'll be neither upset nor surprised if I get every single one wrong!
Also there are a good few films nominated in the major categories, that I have not seen. Trying not to hedge my bets by saying "this OR this" aside from supporting actress and adapted screenplay where I am a bit torn. Also trying to treat each category independent of other categories where the film is nominated.
Here goes:
Best Picture - Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Best Actor - Jonathan Pryce
Best Actress - Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern or Margot Robbie
Best Animated Feature - Missing Link
Cinematography - 1917 (Roger Deakins)
Costume Design - Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Director - Joker (Todd Phillips)
Documentary Feature - no idea
Documentary Short - no idea
Film Editing - Parasite (Yan Jinmo)
International Feature Film - Parasite (South Korea)
Make Up and Hairstyling - Joker (Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou)
Music (Original Score) - 1917 (Thomas Newman)
Music (Original Song) - no idea
Production Design - The Irishman (Bob Shaw, Regina Graves)
Short Film (animated) - no idea
Short film (live action) - no idea
Sound Editing - 1917 (Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate)
Sound Mixing - Ford v Ferrari (Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow)
Visual Effects - The Irishman (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) or Joker (Todd Phillips and Scott Silver)
Writing (Original Screenplay) - Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
So I am going for a fairly even distribution with nothing sweeping the board e.g two for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, three for 1917, one or maybe two for Bombshell, two for Parasite, two/three for Joker, two for The Irishman (I have not seen the film), and slight snubs for Little Women and Marriage Story ( I have not seen the film), total snubs for and a shock with Jonathan Pryce.
Remember last year, The Favourite was nominated for ten Oscars and won one, and Vice was nominated for eight and won one (see also: Three Billboards getting 2/7 etc
The increase to ten nominees for Best Picture (as opposed to five) was intended to do this, to reduce board-sweeping wins, and I think it is working. No more "8 Oscars for Slumdog Millionaire" , then again La La Land got six out of fourteen so what am I even on about?!
Let's see how horribly wrong I am, in the morning
