TdF - Place Your Bets

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Clauso 26 Aug 2020

Jumbo-Visma look very strong indeed. I'd love to see Tom Dumoulin take yellow.

Peter Sagan to make green his own again.

... Thoughts of the panel?

 bouldery bits 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

Pinot is Yellow for me. 

Sagan Green as per usual. 

 Yanis Nayu 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

Love to see Pinot or Bardet in yellow but my head says Bernal. 

Gone for good 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

If Roglic gets fit in time, apparently its 50/50 whether he starts or not, I expect him to win. It will be a clash of the Titans with Jumbo Visma in one corner and Ineos in the other. I hope Pinot or Bardet win the Polka dot jersey but can't see them competing for Yellow. I would like to see one of the Dutch riders take Green. Groenewegen and Van Aert are in good form and its time Sagan was deposed. It will be a fascinating contest.

 Doug 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

no idea who will win but it'll pass by the bottom of our garden on day 4

(but do I watch it there which is a the start of a downhill section or go to the other end of the village & watch the end of a climb ?)

 SebCa 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

I think its going to be an interesting tour indeed,

Pinot, always looks strong for the first two weeks then cracks and fades..

Bernal, got to be up there but injury issues or a tactical headline? 

Roglic, if fit, a true contender, but how long has he been in form for, is he due a dip in form?

The others to keep an eye on I think will be Carapaz, Pogacar and Sivakov (a future great rider)

Bardet for KOM I think

Sagan for Green, he just amuses me! But Bennet could be one to watch! 

 yorkshireman 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Doug:

> no idea who will win but it'll pass by the bottom of our garden on day 4

> (but do I watch it there which is a the start of a downhill section or go to the other end of the village & watch the end of a climb ?)

Similar here - passes through Lans-en-Vercors at the end of stage 16 which is just a couple of Km down our lane. I was always considering loading a cooler bag of beer and cycling along the tramway the 10km to the stage finish in Villard-de-lans - but that was when it was meant to finish on a sunny Bastille Day. Now it's been shifted to September I'm feeling less enthusiastic about taking a day off work and socially distancing in a mask, but will probably do something.

 balmybaldwin 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

Given Sky/Ineos have always gone into the tour with multiple possible leaders for the last ten years or so, I suspect Egan Bernal will be the first major TL to lose a lot of time!

 IceKing 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Gone for good:

According to the cycling podcast Roglic is ready to go but I reckon he us overcooked and is going to fade in the third week, Tom may come good at the same time Roglic goes backwards. Apparently Ineos are going for different tactics as Carapaz is a bit punchier than Bernal so have a front foot and back foot strategic option so they may leave it to Jumbo to be the mountain train and pinch seconds with two cards to play. My pick is Dumoulin for yellow.

Groenewegen is not riding after the crash in the tour of Poland, he wouldn't have a chance to get green anyway, this edition is very lumpy with very few sprint stages. Sagan doesn't look in great form unlike Van Aert but Peter gets a free rein whereas Wout may be working for Jumbo most days including in the mountain train. Going to be an interesting battle. Allaphillipe for the polka dots. 

 abr1966 26 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

Well I said Thomas looked good in the Dauphine so my form in predictions is clearly poor!! Very hard to predict this year....my money on Roglic though!

 nufkin 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

Not very imaginative, nor likely, but after he tried so hard last year I like to think Allaphillipe has secretly been preparing himself for a surprise victory over the likely names

 Yanis Nayu 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Gone for good:

Ooh, van Aert for green.  That's a shout.  I'm not sure about Roglic - he has won a GT though.

 ianstevens 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

It’ll still be Sagan, too lumpy for the pure sprinters and van Aert will have to work in the mountains.

Yellow is far harder to call, purely because I’m not convinced the tour will make it to the end. If it’s culled before the Colombier stage it’ll be someone very unexpected. No idea who though.

 Richard Horn 27 Aug 2020
In reply to ianstevens:

> Yellow is far harder to call, purely because I’m not convinced the tour will make it to the end.

I watched the Tour preview on ITV hub last night, apparently if it gets short there is no protocol in place to determine when it has been a "valid" tour or not, the commissaires will decide Alaphilippe to push to be in yellow in week two?

I would like Pinot to win after he looked so good last year.

 DaveHK 27 Aug 2020
 GrahamD 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Richard Horn:

I'd certainly like to see Pinot podium or possibly KoM but I don't think he has the team for overall GC.

After week 1 I can see Jumbo Visma going either GC with Roglic, possibly TD but if they are off the pace, I can see them going for Green with Van Aert. 

No pressure on young Bernal over at Ineos !  The older heads like Rowe and Kwiato will be key to his chances.

 ianstevens 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Richard Horn:

Nice has gone into “red alert“.... will it even start?

Clauso 27 Aug 2020
In reply to ianstevens:

> Nice has gone into “red alert“.... will it even start?

They need to Grand Depart, right now... 

 balmybaldwin 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

I think the french might do this even if the red alert means they restrict people going to climbs, finish lines etc it would be a big moral sapper if they cancelled but who knows. the key will be if any (more) people in the entorage test "non-negative"

 ianstevens 27 Aug 2020
In reply to balmybaldwin:

The director has said that crowds are integral to the tour and they wouldn’t do it without

 elsewhere 27 Aug 2020
In reply to Doug:

Bugger!

Gone for good 28 Aug 2020
In reply to ianstevens:

> The director has said that crowds are integral to the tour and they wouldn’t do it without

The Director is talking bollocks. The Tour may be a lesser spectacle on the TV but I doubt the guys in the peleton will be too concerned. The Criterium de Dauphine seemed to work OK without thousands of fans and the usual few idiots lining the hillsides.

 Doug 28 Aug 2020
In reply to Gone for good:

a little more information

https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-ma...

so its still planned to start tomorrow but with some restrictions on the crowds & associated vehicles for the first two days (at least). Meanwhile I've just driven down to the local market & back (a road used for part of day 4) & barriers are going up to block the various side roads (mostly farm/forestry tracks)

 Richard Horn 28 Aug 2020
In reply to ianstevens:

> The director has said that crowds are integral to the tour and they wouldn’t do it without

Watching F1 this year has been surreal but far better than no F1 at all (for me at least, I know some people think its boring). TdF will be different too, but its an important declaration of willingness to continue life to have the story of these great events continue if at all possible - in a few years time people will watch the grainy HD footage of people accepting their prizes wearing face coverings from their 32k screens and will remember that was 2020. 

 James FR 28 Aug 2020
In reply to Doug:

Interestingly in Lyon they are actively advertising the stage finish in two weeks, which is right in the city centre - there are posters everywhere.

 compost 28 Aug 2020
In reply to Clauso:

My view on it changes every day at the moment. If the tour 'bubble' stays intact, I think they'll do everything they can to finish it. The usual UCI/ ASO "everything will be fine and there's no contingency plan" worries me though. It could all go horribly wrong very quickly.

Assuming they get to Paris, I thought it was a Jumbo/ Ineos showdown but with no Froome, Thomas or Kruijswijk (sp?) and questions over Roglic's injuries I genuinely have no idea. Bernal will be up there, Pinot will be agonisingly close but not quite, Quintana could do it if he can surf others' trains, Porte not quite, I'm disappointed that Yates and Bardet have said they're going for stages.

For me the dark horse is Dumoulin. He was awesome in Ain and the Dauphine and can diesel the hills as well as anyone. If he can cling onto Quintana and Bernal in the mountains and gain a couple of minutes in the (mountain) time trial, he has a shot.

 felt 28 Aug 2020
In reply to compost:

My dark horse is Sivakov, but he'll need a fall at Becher's to have a clear run to the finish.

 ianstevens 28 Aug 2020
In reply to Gone for good:

Regardless of whether or not it actually makes any difference to those of us viewing it, he’s the chap who has final say over whether or not it carries on. I agree to the average viewer it will make very little difference of course.

Gone for good 29 Aug 2020
In reply to ianstevens:

I fervently hope it goes ahead but am starting to doubt it will finish. France is struggling with another big increase in Covid cases and who knows what's going to happen in the peleton over a 3 week period. 

 GrahamD 29 Aug 2020
In reply to Gone for good:

I wonder whether they'd entertain a non Paris finale? Hard to imagine there isn't some contingency in place.

 Doug 29 Aug 2020
In reply to GrahamD:

well le Tour has started, but where will it end ?

 GrahamD 29 Aug 2020
In reply to Doug:

As a side bar, I wonder what the most annoying advert on ITV4 will be ?

 Doug 29 Aug 2020
In reply to GrahamD:

no idea but there are some pretty grim ads on France 3

 GrahamD 29 Aug 2020
In reply to felt:

> My dark horse is Sivakov, but he'll need a fall at Becher's to have a clear run to the finish.

Hmmmm

 felt 29 Aug 2020
In reply to GrahamD:

Yes, he fell twice today. Perhaps he's a serial faller like G or Porte. He had an inexplicable fall at the Dauphiné too. Still...

 GrahamD 29 Aug 2020
In reply to felt:

He's not a GC player now, but hope he's strong enough to play a role through the rest of the race.


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