UKH

...like it might have begun. Close to going sub 10 euros in US trading...that is a huge level to break. no sleep in Germany tonight.. tomorrow could be interesting. All eyes on Merkel. I hope it's not as bad as it looks and they can stem the outflows.

To put it in context, it now has a smaller market cap than M&T bank which only operates in 7 US states!

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Here's hoping they aren't all lined up like dominoes again

In reply to balmybaldwin:

I think Merkel steps in if tomorrow sees Germans queuing to withdraw cash. But then all hell breaks loose. Commerzbank next? The Italians were told (by Merkel!) they couldn't bail out their banks...so she will lose all credibility there. Bank holiday in Germany on monday as well...always makes people nervous when a bank is teetering near a bank holiday.

This is all a worst case scenario though...possibly it blows over.

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

"Commerzbank, the second-biggest bank in Germany, has suspended its dividend and revealed more than 9,000 job losses as it tries to shore up its business in the face of ultra-low interest rates and sagging client activity.

The bank said its decision to cut almost one in five of its employees worldwide and merge two of its largest businesses will result in a €700m write-off and a loss for this quarter."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/29/now-another-german-bank-is-i...

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

When banks are fined, eg DB's 14 bn, who gets the money and what do they do with it?

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:


Are we talking New York, California, Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio; or is it Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska etc.

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Could be messy - worse than Lehmans. Still, bonuses have been excellent in banking of late....

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

This is worth a read.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/26/the-deutsche-bank-crisis-cou...

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

As is this.

http://reaction.life/blowing-city-london-disaster-eu/?botref

In reply to icnoble:

"For Germany to then turn around and say, actually we are bailing out our own bank, while letting everyone else’s fail, looks, to put it mildly, just a little inconsistent. Heck, a few people might even start to wonder if there was one rule for Germany, and another one for the rest. In truth, it would become impossible to maintain a hard-line in Italy, and probably in Greece as well."

Ouch!

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:


but they said there won't be a rescue package a day or two ago. That's not going to give anyone confidence. They sold Abbey whatever the other day to slow the rot, but it's not enough. Unless Merkel admits it's failed and bails it, then it's a slowly sinking ship.

In reply to Shani:

Its a mess isn't it.

In reply to icnoble:
Yep. And leaving Greece to hang, with depositors on the hook rather than bond holders, Germany has painted itself in to a corner. Any attempt at a government bailout will lead to revolt...

In reply to The New NickB:
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C. (which is 8) and has 16k employees

DB is global and has over 100k employees

In reply to summo:

History tells us that when a big bank is going to blow, the board and politicians say the opposite of reality until the last minute. Confidence is the only currency in town, so they will keep up the pretence all is fine until they can't.

As long as the retail customers don't all lose faith tomorrow I think they can string this out a bit longer, but the contagion to other banks might be harder to contain. Interesting to see what Cryan says tomorrow

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:


Clearly Germany doesn't have their version of Robert Peston to trigger a banking run!

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:



Somewhat misleading comparisson with Delaware included. Delaware is a tax shelter (no state taxes or corporation taxes on earnings outside Delaware) - it's used in the USA in a similar manner to how European companies use Jersey, Luxemburg, and Ireland etc. IIRC 50-60% of all publically traded USA companies are nominally based in Delaware!

In reply to thebigfriendlymoose:
Apart from the fact DB does business in all those US states as well...

ok, how about smaller than Snapchat or Twitter...probably easier to understand than a provincial US bank

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Well the $14 billion fine has still to be negotiaited and is likely to be less than that according to sources.

It could be a hedge funds inducing a collapse in the price , so who knows.

Fascinating the whole thing considerint thta at the time of the 2008 crash the germans were saying they did not have any problems and that it was anglo-american issue

Me I am fascinated by the Wells Fargo situation being played out in Congress at the moment. To me that is far more significant.Boy do those Senators go after the banks. Warrens questioning of Trumpf...awesome.

These big banks need to be broken up.

In reply to neilh:


This! We need an antifragile banking system.