Eastern Alps avalanche danger

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 Null 13 Mar 2016
Saturday 12 March a huge avalanche killed 6 with 9 survivors on Monte Nevoso in Val Aurina (near Italian-Austrian border) . The forecast risk was 2 to 3, so this kind of event proves that estimations of risk are currently not very reliable, which has been the case for the last couple of weeks (since the first significant snowfall this winter).
By chance I was doing an avalanche rescue course on the same day and the experts all noted (before news of this event) that the snowpack was unusual and generally dangerous. This is likely to persist for at least a week or so.

So anyone heading over this way to ski - be warned.
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 Dark-Cloud 13 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

You may want to do some further reading after your course, most deaths in avalanches are at level 2-3, level 2 still means that avalanches may be triggered, just because it's level 2 and there is an avalanche doesn't meant the estimate wasn't reliable, if anything it was very accurate.

Read level 2 here and take a look st the ones associated with level 2:

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/zusatzinfos/lawinenskala-europa/index_EN
 Brass Nipples 13 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

So which bit of the below didn't apply?

Triggering is possible, even from low additional loads, particularly on the indicated steep slopes. In some cases medium-sized, in isolated cases large-sized natural avalanches are possible.
OP Null 13 Mar 2016
In reply to Orgsm:

No more stupid comments from the zoo ?
(this is a bump)
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 alasdair19 13 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

did the avalanche propagate on an old surface hoar layer that was then buried?
OP Null 13 Mar 2016
In reply to alasdair19:

There appears to be a deeply buried complex of alternating hoar crystals and very thin ice layers, presumably caused by the extended relatively dry period with alternating mild and cold intervals. Not surprisingly this structure is quite variable over small areas. You could feel it by probing lightly - you hit a solid layer that appears ground then it gives way into soft hoar then another layer and so on. There has also been quite a lot of wind, so some slabby structures mixed up in all this. And now there is a heap of poorly consolidated snow on top of it all.
The boss "nivologist" running our course was shaking his head and saying he thought the latest forecasts were too "optimistic". Within hours news arrived of the big avalanche from up the road - nobody in the local valley remembers such a big avalanche in that area, so conditions are clearly out of the ordinary.
 Gael Force 13 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:
Cheers for posting, will be out that way on Tues, had seen it on the news, but didn't realise the worrying details until you posted.
Post edited at 21:14
 Roadrunner5 15 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

"The forecast risk was 2 to 3, so this kind of event proves that estimations of risk are currently not very reliable, which has been the case for the last couple of weeks (since the first significant snowfall this winter)."

I think they are right to pick you up on this for a number of issues.

1. By saying not reliable you may encourage people to not use them.

2. I think you are misunderstanding what risks are. Even a category 1 rating can still lead to avalanches, 'generally safe' 'not likely' does not mean they won't happen. We can put the odds in our favour but where you have steep slopes and snow there is always some risk.

There was a case a good 15 years ago of a Scottish guide and his clients killed, the aspect he was on, the area where he was, was a pretty safe area in those conditions but they can still and do happen.
 drunken monkey 15 Mar 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:

I could be wrong, but I think there has been a fair few deep low pressure areas in the Northern Med / Adriatic this winter which have resulted in significant snowfall in the Eastern Alps this year.
 Roadrunner5 15 Mar 2016
In reply to drunken monkey:

> I could be wrong, but I think there has been a fair few deep low pressure areas in the Northern Med / Adriatic this winter which have resulted in significant snowfall in the Eastern Alps this year.

I'm not saying its not a weird year, it's el nino so its been a freak winter in the NE USA. Even the high mountains have little snow which is very very rare.

I just think many don't understand what risks mean, and that if avalanches happen, it doesn't mean the risk category was wrong.

There's a very low chance I will win the lottery next week, I can only make it no chance by not buying a ticket. If I did buy one and then won it wouldn't mean I was wrong is saying there was a very low chance.
OP Null 15 Mar 2016
In reply to drunken monkey:

> I could be wrong, but I think there has been a fair few deep low pressure areas in the Northern Med / Adriatic this winter which have resulted in significant snowfall in the Eastern Alps this year.

No - exceptionally low snowfall
OP Null 15 Mar 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:

Perhaps I was not clear enough (imagining that people would take what I said as measured comment) - there have been a lot of avalanches with a relatively low volume of snow, including inside ski resorts (on closed runs) and so on.
It might seem strange but I do actually know what I am talking about and I genuinely wanted to warn anyone who was coming ski touring over this way just to be extra careful, just as I would say to any of my local friends here.

It might be worth reflecting that in response to the uninformed and insulting responses to my original post I will probably never post again on this forum with local information about ski touring or ice climbing conditions, which is a pity, since that is what the "wonderful" Internet is supposed to enable. Unfortunately the reality is a cacophony of clowns.

Ski safe people - and be polite.
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 Roadrunner5 15 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

I don't think anyone was particularly insulting or uninformed..

I think you could have explained it better, with a few caveats. As it was it was hard to see why you said forecasts were proven unreliable, you made it seem like that was simply because avalanches had occurred.
 Dark-Cloud 16 Mar 2016
In reply to Erstwhile:

What a very strange attitude, are you referring to my post as one of the "clowns" now that is insulting........

Have you read and re-read the replies, including mine ? Your post made it sound like you were stating the avalanche reports were unreliable and the risk was wrong, that simply isn't true.
 drunken monkey 16 Mar 2016
In reply to Null:
Really? I've seen pictures of incredibly high snowfall in parts of northern Italy recently. Possibly further south than the Alp region albeit..

You obviously live/work out there so you'd know better than me.
Post edited at 08:50

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