Winter conditions affect by this summers heat wave?

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 tuckey234 26 Jul 2015
Will the current heat wave across the alps have an effect on the winter conditions? If so will it be positive or negative?
In reply to tuckey234:

As i'm sure you know everything is incredibly dry, so yes the winter season could be very poor, last season was one of the best ever due to a cold snowy summer, with once in a lifetime conditions on a lot of the classics, the Mac/colton jorrasses was literally gang banged for weeks, NF Matterhorn perfect neve, this is not the norm, looking at pics of the faces now the prognosis is not a good one.
 planetmarshall 26 Jul 2015
In reply to tuckey234:

> Will the current heat wave across the alps have an effect on the winter conditions? If so will it be positive or negative?

Yes.

4
 smithaldo 27 Jul 2015
In reply to tuckey234:
I imagine it will have a positive effect on some routes and a negative on others.

Also, if the weather turns wet it would still build conditions ready for autumn (which was when the gj was in amazing nick).

Although saying that it would take a lot to rebuild the icy routes on the jorasses specifically.
Post edited at 08:58
 David Rose 27 Jul 2015
In reply to tuckey234:
It's impossible to tell. In 2003, the Alps were left extremely dry in the summer. But 2004 was a snowy winter, with well over 300 cm in French resorts at 2,300 metres by early March. The following year was even snowier, and it lasted late: in mid-April 2005 there was 450 cm at 2300 metres.

Winter 2004 was a weak el Nino year. We are now heading into a strong el Nino. Last time that happened was 2009 -10, a poor snow year in the Alps. On the other hand, the winter of 1998 -9, also a strong el Nino, was one of the snowiest for decades, with huge avalanches that (for example) killed eight people in an apartment block in Le Tour.

The key fact is: if it starts snowing and it sticks, routes can be restored very quickly. After all, apart from a few little patches, all the snow melts on Ben Nevis and Creagh Megaidh every summer. By January one can be enjoying thick, fat ice.
Post edited at 11:17
 LakesWinter 27 Jul 2015
In reply to David Rose:

I don't mean to contradict you, but the 2004-5 winter was relatively snowless in the alps and indeed by early June conditions around Chamonix resembled late August in a dry year. It took a while for the snowier and icier routes to be any good after summer 2003.

2009-10 also had heavy snowfall over the alps - it was a heatwave like this one in July that meant the mass balance of the glaciers was a bit negative that year - the negativity of the mass balance that year was offset by the cooler August and the heavy winter and spring snowfalls
 LakesWinter 27 Jul 2015
In reply to David Rose:



> The key fact is: if it starts snowing and it sticks, routes can be restored very quickly. After all, apart from a few little patches, all the snow melts on Ben Nevis and Creagh Megaidh every summer. By January one can be enjoying thick, fat ice.

Of course, this is the key point. A wet and cool August and Autumn would still produce good conditions in the winter and spring season

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